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481  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 09, 2022, 05:03:52 PM


There's the making of a haiku in there....


Making a haiku
"I think, therefore I bitcoin"
Tyler Winklevoss



#haiku
482  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 06, 2022, 04:01:48 PM
When the bill came, he was ready to split it. I was like, "no worries, I got this brother."

That puts me in mind of a TV show worth watching, since the thread has had some of that recently. "Inside No 9". The episode I'm thinking of in particular is S03E02 "The Bill".

I jumped straight to The 12 Days of Christine after following up on your hint and reading a bit. Top shelf.
483  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 05, 2022, 11:43:04 PM
for me it's more about how life unfolds and what I like to do in that moment.

Many of us have been at this for over a decade.   There is NOTHING wrong with enjoying the spoils.  Just as there is nothing wrong with living simply and dying rich if you want to.  But I'll be doing the former.

Better to buy and use them cause whiteout knowing time is up and our body lays between the wooden planks…

The coffin is for everyone, one just needs to decide ending in one with a lot of BTC or with some BTC and lots of experiences….



Bring into your grave
Rosy sunsets, lambos
Don't bring your bitcoin


#haiku
484  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 05, 2022, 06:32:47 PM


I'd change that reed right now, or all you're going to get out of your saxophone will be a HONKING HONK (with strong Canadian accent possibly). Besides, $550 is WAY too much, even for a whole box of the best brand.
485  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 05, 2022, 04:08:47 AM
COVID found me too….

First time…. It took a long time ….

This virus aggression will not be tolerated, man.

It's just a flu.

Have a White Russian when you can, milk will do you good.
486  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 04, 2022, 03:55:17 AM
@hisslyness, @cAPSLOCK

Wow, that would be quite a headstart! Your kind offer is gratefully appreciated.
Amazon says it will take a few days to get all the stuff: some items are backordered.
After that, my first free half day will be dedicated to installation and configuration.
487  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 03, 2022, 09:59:10 PM
Quick bit of advice.  Go ahead and get the big RPi.  The 4gig?  (or is there a bigger one yet?)  The extra memory makes the initial chain validation process much faster.  You want a good strong power supply, and a good energy efficient SSD (and though 1g is fine for now... I would almost say just get the 2 so you don't have that hanging over you eventually... I dunno...).  Some external SSDs (like the M.2 in a little case kinds) are power hogs, but the little usually rectangular ordinary ones tend to be power sippers.  And you most likely want some decent cooling for the little thing.  They do not run badly under normal load... but during sync and other operations these little suckers get pretty dang hot.

I ordered the 8gig raspi and the original power supply, as well as the recommended raspi case - just as suggested on the Umbrel site. The SSD is 1G, their suggestion too. I suppose I should be good to go.


and make sure you backup your channel state and keep a backup of your seed... can't stress how important it is, especially dealing with. ssd drives...

That's a good one, thanks. I'll see to that. I'll install rsync on the raspi (if not already there) and add a crontab entry to backup daily, or even more frequently.
488  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 03, 2022, 09:29:26 PM
Quote
You had no taxable activity on Coinbase last year

You The IRS won’tbe receiving any tax forms from us since you had no taxable activity on Coinbase in 2021.


FTFY
489  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 03, 2022, 04:44:10 PM
* Few hours later *



Yeah, it's ~8k sats today so far just in fees.

OK, I'm sold. I'd like to run a LN node. I already have a bitcoin node running.
Is Umbrel my best choice?
Bob? cAPS?

My first lightning node was something I built by hand using Docker images on a NAS.  Lol.  That was a nightmare and I was lucky to shut it down and actually get my coins off of it.

Now I use Raspiblitz.  I think it a very nice system.  Stable, actively developed. A little "power-userish".

As Bob mentions Umbrel is also a well liked node-in-a-box.  I think it's a little more polished overall, but similar.

One interesting bit with these things are we are trusting the devs with an awful lot using any of these... I would DEFINITELY suggest doing things like verifying checksum of images and the like.  Because these "distros" are basically Bitcoin wallets with a huge attack surface.  If I were a hacker I would be looking for vulnerabilities in these os/sw distributions.  If you could find a crack in the armor you could certainly make a lot of stolen Bitcoin...

But I do not worry all that much.

One important choice in particular:  I cannot see any reason NOT to use Tor as a private node.  Putting these things behind TOR not only anonymizes them, it also improves firewalling and networking details right out of the box.

Thanks for chiming in, Bob and cAPS!

My Bitcoin node (Bitcoin Core) has been running for years on a regular Ubuntu desktop workstation. It has Tor transport enabled and working - not sure that means it's behind Tor. I guess it's just a possible alternative.

I think I'm going with Umbrel for now. Gonna run it on a brand new Raspi4. I'm going to order the hardware later today or early tomorrow. I guess this means that my already running node, along with its already downloaded and synced blockchain data on the local Ubuntu drive, will be useless: the LN node will just reload/resync from scratch. Or maybe I will be able to copy at least the raw blockchain data from old node to new LN node, and have the latter "just" verify it. We'll see when the raspi+stuff arrive and I get around to set it up.

I will ask you guys for advice. A lot. You have been warned. Wink
490  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 03, 2022, 04:10:02 PM
I met someone late last summer....at a point I didnt think there was anyone else to meet. It was a hot and steamy affair but doomed from the start. It took 6 months for me to admit we had absolutely nothing in common other than a desire to be in a relationship with someone.

She's a nocoiner...

Converting nocoiners is a worthy endeavor, captain - even if it should require some steam.
We know you tried your best.

Quote
Hope springs Eternal.

So does love. Steady on!
491  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 03, 2022, 02:21:04 AM
* Few hours later *



Yeah, it's ~8k sats today so far just in fees.

OK, I'm sold. I'd like to run a LN node. I already have a bitcoin node running.
Is Umbrel my best choice?
Bob? cAPS?
492  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 02, 2022, 10:04:38 PM
6 million sats for 300 transactions? Paying those on-chain comes much cheaper.

Looks like ~6k to me.
493  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 02, 2022, 10:02:29 PM

according to CNN, borrowed close to $7 trillion from foreign investors led by Japan and China, which will eventually need to be paid back.


Paid back in what? USD?

Brrrrrrrr.

The real fun begins when a nation says to another: "Oh and BTW - you will repay me this loan in BTC... El Salvador style, please."
494  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 02, 2022, 01:16:30 PM

Shitforks vainly trying to become relevant?
495  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 02, 2022, 01:42:18 AM
Will Clemente gets it.

Quote
Think there's a fair likelihood that the Fed has been raising monetary tightening expectations so that markets can rally on "less hawkishness" even though the Fed is still marginally raising rates.
https://twitter.com/WClementeIII/status/1488647456573296640

Thats not even really a theory, its exactly what they are doing herding sheep.   The sheepdog never attacks just threatens in its posture and the flock moves towards the position wanted.   The base line is they cannot raise rates properly to be above inflation, reason being there is far too much debt issued and ongoing deficits.  Keynes own theory was a surplus must be run also, this never happens.

What you can't reach by deed, you could reach by jawboning.
496  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 01, 2022, 11:01:54 PM
Will Clemente gets it.

Quote
Think there's a fair likelihood that the Fed has been raising monetary tightening expectations so that markets can rally on "less hawkishness" even though the Fed is still marginally raising rates.
https://twitter.com/WClementeIII/status/1488647456573296640
497  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 31, 2022, 06:01:10 PM


As long as McD allows audits to check their Big Mac vaults so they don't rehypothecate the burgerz.

Maybe some of our moles temporarily flippin them burgerz (wen moon?) can tell us if they hear rumors of audits...
498  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 31, 2022, 04:55:27 PM


Some stats for context, 67% population of Crimea were ethnic Russians, 80% of population spoke Russian as their primary language, and naturally this is how they voted, Yanukovych (blue) was the pro Russian president that ended up winning

Current military conflict is in the two regions that voted 91% and 93% for pro Russian president.

So Hm: based on the voting patterns one could make a pretty reasonable assumption that the area of "land" just above Ukraine, to the right of Poland, and below Lit/Latvia/Estonia would probably be pretty highly "Pro someone other than Russia". Would Russia be ok in ceding that territory in exchange for the areas that voted Russian in the Ukraine?

I think they secretly would, although they won't admit it, ever.

The problem is, Putin (or Russia in general) DGAF what "the people" want. Do any rulers ever? What Russia very, very badly wants is a sea port in "warm" waters. Crimea's Black Sea is a good start.
499  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 31, 2022, 04:39:47 PM
   So then is the unstated "problem", as I feared, that we have this decentralized, no-trust-required, wealth transfer method that doesn't require an intermediary which anyone can use... including Russia if they are kicked out of the SWIFT club?
Not gonna happen. It really is tantamount to war. Even keeping nukes out of the equation, it would entail cyber-destruction of the world as we know it.

Quote
​Then again maybe we get lucky and Russia, if kicked out of SWIFT, will choose BSV as a payment settlement medium instead in which case I hope.... no! no! no!  I never hope for war.

Not gonna happen, squared Cheesy
500  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 31, 2022, 04:36:19 PM
-multisnip-

In Lightning Network matters, I kinda figured out how to get my channels back into a balanced state, organically, after getting drained to one side.

tl;dr: I set a "normal" free policy for routing peers of something like 1000/100. Bigger nodes get charged higher rates, eg: 1000/350.

Neato.

I'm no expert in LN, but shouldn't this be happening automatically?

In a nutshell, no…

I really think what we are not seeing are the second order incentives.  Certain nodes will be incentivized to exist because of trade.  Your grocery store, your hardware store, the convenience store, the gas station.

Banks too will probably have giant, well managed nodes.  Whatever banks are about to morph into.  But I think the retailers... the people we do trade with... those folks will become much more important in commerce.

The doors are going to get blown off the entire system... and most people won;t even see it coming.

I like this post as I liked the one before. You being a legendary and all, I'm not "blowing any additional merit load", as Bob sometimes says, but  as usual, you manage to word my thoughts in a plausible, effective way.

I'm keeping my fingers crossed. I hope I get to see the picture you're painting while it plays out. It will be sweet.
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