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1  Economy / Speculation / Re: On stagnating prices on: January 20, 2019, 08:04:56 PM
We have stagnant prices because the buying frenzy is over (that ended in early 2018) and the panic selling frenzy has also appeared to stop, at least for a while

That doesn't explain why the price action is so restricted for so long

If you look at Bitcoin's volatility in 2013-2018, you will see that while there were periods when the price didn't change much, it still wasn't stagnant. And now we have Bitcoin's price which we hadn't seen till the fall of 2017, i.e. most of Bitcoin's history, and it is basically stuck in a very narrow range, which raises eyebrows. And there is a reason for that. The current situation may be called a "potential well" of sorts, so whenever there is a hint on a strong price movement, either strong resistance or strong support instantly builds up

So if you ask me, that can be explained only if you admit or take into account there is a massive amount of shorts at play, which limit the price action in both directions. Indeed, there is still a possibility of a breakout, either via extreme manipulation aimed at wiping away these shorts or via somebody actually having an intention to buy or sell enough bitcoins that no buying or selling wall will be able to hold back

Why can it not? It's fact that price is a product of demand and supply. I think the big difference to 2015 is that the market is more established and well known now. Anyone who believes in btc has had the chance to be made aware of it and buy some, they've already invested and now don't have much more to invest. On the flip side, we've been bearish for a long time so anyone wanting to sell has had ample opportunity. The shear amount of dollar volume needed to move the price now compared to in 2015 explains why we don't see similar percentage swings.
2  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: If you are buying BTC in 2019 because you think it is Bitcoin, you are being foo on: January 20, 2019, 08:00:57 PM
Agreed, not much you can do except for trying to educate people and push them in the right direction. No legal recourse can be taken unlike in my scenario (though I don't think many people do get punished for selling fake rolex watches, although it's not something I know too much about!).

Education is the way. A fork is an altcoin, they can try to steal the bitcoin name but they can't because they came later, MUCH later.

You can order clones of almost anything from China, with varying qualities. For a small fee, they can stamp anything as the "brand". If you attempt to resell that in another country where counterfeiting is forbidden, you might get in trouble; for selling in those countries the clients usually just stamp another brand.

This is not related to free open source software of course. Forks are welcome and part of the ecosystem, but its up to you to make your fork "better", and for the people to welcome it. Sometimes forks add ideas that get implemented in the main tree, sometimes they dissolve as nobody wants them. Its part of the freedom of free software.

If you copy Linux, change its name and say its yours, the community will immediately denounce you for plagiarism. The correct etiquette when forking a project, is to give credit where credit is due. Some licenses make this obligatory, and some even require you to publish back your source code.

Calling the forks "Bitcoin" is a blatant lie. They have officially different names, although they use "Bitcoin" as part of their name, they are not.

It's not even like it's creating something new from scratch. At least a lot of knock-off products are created as good replicas. Instead of just being a copy and then changing 1-2 things and announcing it as being the better version and worse of the lot, denouncing the original. It wouldn't be so bad if there wasn't at least some recognition of that.
3  Economy / Speculation / Re: On stagnating prices on: January 19, 2019, 02:34:34 PM
We have stagnant prices because the buying frenzy is over (that ended in early 2018) and the panic selling frenzy has also appeared to stop, at least for a while.
4  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin ATMs should target developing and third world countries on: January 19, 2019, 02:32:32 PM
The ATMs are going to go where there is a demand for them. People in the US have a wealth of spare income, they have easy access to the internet and there are plenty more options for them to spend of use their bitcoin. That's not so much the case in developing countries. ATM machines aren't set up to try and benefit communities or countries, they're set up for the owners to make money.
5  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: If you are buying BTC in 2019 because you think it is Bitcoin, you are being foo on: January 19, 2019, 02:30:11 PM
Comparing BCH to BTC is like comparing a real $30k rolex to a fake plastic rolex that cost you $10. To the uneducated they may look the same or even the plastic one slightly better, but to those who know their stuff, they can see one is just a cheap rip off and the other is the real deal.

how can we as community help on that ?
Actually, we can't do anything about it since Bitcoin are created open source under MIT license But we can educate people to choose the real Bitcoin Core. @clrpod analogy could be countered by plagiarism could be punished under the law, but Bitcoin isn't. The only thing we need is to make a newcomer able to testify themselves about the current situation about cryptocurrencies spaces and tell them hows it's started, and who is covering the lie which is the Roger Ver Team.

Agreed, not much you can do except for trying to educate people and push them in the right direction. No legal recourse can be taken unlike in my scenario (though I don't think many people do get punished for selling fake rolex watches, although it's not something I know too much about!).
6  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will scarcity ever come into play? on: January 18, 2019, 07:54:58 PM
Scarcity can only really come about now as coins get lost for one reason or another. Or if there's a big uptick in demand. I think that mostly scarcity will never be an issue because of the fact that 1 bitcoin can be broken down in to so many Satoshi. And I'm also fairly sure that if need be a satoshi could even be broken down.
7  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What happened to all of the anonymity exchanges? on: January 18, 2019, 07:53:04 PM
So i have been working with bitcoin since it started, i sold off all my holdings at 6k before the rise to the moon, but recently ive came back to buy some and all of the otc markets are gone, local traders require ID, the big exchanges either dont accept fiat or require your soul and mothers baby pictures.

So can somebody help me understand what happened? did the 2017 bubble kill off the anonymity or am i missing something? I understand the importance of a trust-circle but i am asking solely on the basis of send payment, get bitcoin using WU, cash deposit, Moneypak, etc.. without an in-group. It seems there isnt even a way anymore to find private sellers efficiently, just oceans full of buyers trying to pawn off paypal and itunes giftcards, OTC sellers requiring ID, and corporate exchanges that are even worse than mtgox.

I dont remember it being this "centralized". Shame.

So what actually caused this? Regulations shouldnt have effected the OTC market IMO.

what did you expect?
the banking cartels will be losing profit and Central Banks will be losing control
if people are allowed to trade currencies anonymously
there will be all kind of excuses , sponsoring terrorism, crime, money laundering and what not
in reality it is all about your anonymity and privacy
and money


I'm sure it's a bit of both, sponsoring terrorism, money laundering etc are definitely easier with bitcoin than with fiat, but that doesn't mean they don't happen with fiat. Couple that with all of their banker buddies pressuring them to cramp down on bitcoin and you get to the regulators decision to push hard on everything. I'm not sure we've even seen the worst of it yet.
8  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: If you are buying BTC in 2019 because you think it is Bitcoin, you are being foo on: January 18, 2019, 07:50:15 PM
Comparing BCH to BTC is like comparing a real $30k rolex to a fake plastic rolex that cost you $10. To the uneducated they may look the same or even the plastic one slightly better, but to those who know their stuff, they can see one is just a cheap rip off and the other is the real deal.
9  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: BitMex Reportedly Losing Users due to Regulatory Pressures from North America on: January 17, 2019, 08:24:34 PM
They Anonymous and De-centralized Exchanges will become more stable and liquid over the next 10 years.

The larger exchanges (long term) have the same problem banks and financial markets have -- there is too much incentive to assist manipulating shitcoins and ICO's to earn a profit.

The whole "Crypto" industry that people want to become a real thing, won't become a real thing until all of the bad actors get out. Which is why so many of us are bitcoin maximalists until the terrible projects die off.

I hope that you're right. But the people making the money tend to have a way of keeping it that way. And the real big winners in crypto are the exchanges, they're making millions or billions whether your precious crypto goes up or down in price.
10  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Crypto Trading 2018 in Review: I backtested 32 strategies with full year of data on: January 17, 2019, 08:22:52 PM
I'm going to look in to this in some more depth when I have the time but it answers some questions and disproves some estimations of potential profit people have. From what I could gather the best result was a 323% profit in the year. That works out to being about 0.4% per day if compounded. A far cry from the 10% people claim or even the 2-3% many people say is easy.
11  Economy / Economics / Re: Long Bitcoin Short Banks. on: January 17, 2019, 08:16:58 PM
You'd think with how extortionate it is to borrow from a bank that they would try and encourage savings as much as possible so they could make more loans. Then again I guess that's not really necessary when they can just use fractional lending to multiply their funds 10 fold or more


The terms of using Bitcoin will be very unusual by the people because we don't accept while the price becomes very low but we had slept while the price become more higher do not a good system to convey the development of Bitcoin because when the price become low we are selling our investment this will affect the development of Bitcoin that's why the untouchability will continually flowing through the cryptocurrency especially Bitcoin.

Price won't affect the development of bitcoin whatsoever. Most of the work is already done and there are countless people working on improvements. Most have been doing so for a long time, they've already banked their millions and are doing it for something other than money, therefore for them to continue, price doesn't matter.
12  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Are you following your gut instinct in trading? on: January 16, 2019, 12:54:57 PM
I think you should only rely on your gut instinct when there is very little analytically between your options. Aside from those times it's better to go with analysis and data rather than on a hunch you have.
13  Economy / Economics / Re: Long Bitcoin Short Banks. on: January 16, 2019, 12:52:34 PM
You'd think with how extortionate it is to borrow from a bank that they would try and encourage savings as much as possible so they could make more loans. Then again I guess that's not really necessary when they can just use fractional lending to multiply their funds 10 fold or more
14  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Bounties (Altcoins) / Re: ▄▀▄▀▄▀▄ [BOUNTY] ★ GIGZI ★ Independent Wealth Management ★ 10,000 ETH ▄▀▄▀▄▀▄ on: January 14, 2019, 09:53:34 AM
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15  Economy / Economics / Re: Brexit we're going to know the end of the story. on: January 13, 2019, 11:27:58 AM
Next week (Tuesday?) we're going to finally know the end of the story.
In any case, if UK and EU do not reach an agreement before the end of the month, the UK will be forced to leave the European Union because of the Treaty(ies) of the European Union. (hard brexit).

What I wonder is

- Is The UK ready: not only economically (what will be the cost and most important who will pay!) but I feel like there is nothing prepared for. For example, what about the people living in Europe, would they become immigrants since they won't have any legal paper to reside in the country? What about the companies, several banks are moving their offices outside The UK. It looks like a mess already, even 2 ministers resigned

- What about Ireland/North and Scotland?, they should take this opportunity to ask for their independence

- GBP could lose its value easily with 15%-20% (ok I may exaggerating a bit with the % but it's the scenario I am betting for)




I suspect that the brexit deal will not pass and shortly after there will be a motion of no confidence followed by a new election. In that election we'll see parties split with many wanting to offer a new referendum and many not. While all this is going on there is no way that brexit will happen on the scheduled timeline. Brexit will likely be delayed for 1 or 2 years. There is no way the EU can force a hard brexit, the UK has the legal right to delay or cancel its decision at any point.
16  Economy / Speculation / Re: Numerous altcoins and tokens also a reason for bitcoin's downfall ? on: January 13, 2019, 11:25:18 AM
I think there are arguments to be made both ways. A lot of alt-coins are scams or junk and they bring a bad reputation to crypto as a whole. But a few have pioneered new ways of utilizing the blockchain and increased the awareness and application for cryptocurrencies. I believe overall bitcoin is better off with alts but some cramping down on scams etc would only benefit the whole.
17  Economy / Economics / Re: why are you sure the bitcoin will be make economic freedom? on: January 13, 2019, 11:23:03 AM
I am not sure that bitcoin can liberate people in the way that you speak of. I believe that even with the improvements that bitcoin has made it will still struggle when it comes to decentralization. BUT (and it's a big but) it is infinitely better than the current system. People are able to control their own funds and be free from the inflationary decisions that are enforced on them when they hold fiat currencies.
18  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why the Crypto Market Remains ‘Moderately Bearish’ in 2019 on: January 12, 2019, 08:55:40 PM

bearish would have been if price of bitcoin went below $3k not when it is pretty much the same as it was before! fluctuating within the same channels.


Just because the price didn't break that support level yet doesn't mean the market is overall bearish. It may not be bearish for the last month or so we've been stuck in this range but for the last year the price has been trending downwards. Until there are 2-3+ months of growth the market will and should still be considered as bearish.

not at all.
we don't need the bull market to start (in other words we don't need to see 2-3 months of big rises) for the bear market to end. the thing is, even the drop below $6k doesn't make the current trend "bearish" at least in my opinion because if you look at WHY it dropped this low you can see that it wasn't because of some trend or anything like that. that trend (the bearish one) had ended long time ago. the drop was purely because of a large scale attack on bitcoin from the BCash people which whales got behind to make more money from shorting bitcoin.
that in my view is not a "trend", it is more like an incident Cheesy

6k to 3k may not have been because of a trend. 20k down to 6k was and remaining at around 3k following the dip is also a sign of that. If it was just because of an incident (as you put it) then we'd have seen a swift reversal back towards 6k. We didn't see that because people were still bearish enough not to want to buy up the supply even at lower levels.
19  Economy / Economics / Re: Notable Bitcoin Critic Claims Price Likely to Hit $5,000 In Near Future on: January 12, 2019, 08:53:08 PM
For a 50% raise, we must have a good news or an interesting story that could persuade majority of investors and potential buyers.

Good news pumping the price during a bear market? Good luck waiting for that. On top of that, every quick increase will be tanked back to where it started at, so don't hope for miracles to happen any time soon. The same applies to people hoping for a massive short squeeze to pump the price. People fail to understand that short squeezes don't represent actual demand, and thus will be sold back down quickly.

I like how there is nothing at this point that will make the price pump hard. It makes people get used to this side of the market, and helps them understand that 2017 was something out of the ordinary, and not a normal happening in crypto. People who entered in 2017/2018 legit believed that crypto could only go up in value, lol.  Cheesy

I believe more with each day that news has very little bearing on the crypto market. At least in the short term. Anyone hoping for a increase in price is foolish to wish for a quick rise because that will only lead to 2017 all over again and that is not healthy for the continued success of bitcoin. 2019 is likely going to be largely sideways and that's not all that big of a negative. It allows time for people to focus on adoption and use rather than purely being fixated on bitcoin as a dollar investment.
20  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Analysis: Are We Going Up Or Down? on: January 12, 2019, 08:50:38 PM
We're neither going up or down, we're just moving between the levels you spoke about. As more people begin to realize and act on those levels the band will become smaller and eventually it will burst one way or another, forcing us either towards 3k or 5k.
We are moving sideways right now and it can pump and dump at no specific time as the market is still in a down trend. Its too early to be sad because 2019 will be a great one for sure, I expect more pumps compare to dump this year and since bitcoin and eth are cheap again, you can now buy more.
change is not very fast and tends to undergo changes that are not too drastic. we are still in an uncertain phase, the price of bitcoin will never be able to survive the exact price. changes occur, decreases and increases will always be there every minute. when more people need bitcoin then the price will increase and when more people sell bitcoin then it will reduce the price of bitcoin. Such a scheme will always occur because the price of bitcoin is very much determined by the demand factor.

I think people get too caught up in the idea of bitcoin only having a limited supply based on how many coins are mined each day. That's not entirely true. What should be considered is market demand and market supply. that is how many people are willing to sell at any given price. Supply can fluctuate greatly just as demand can when considering it in this way.
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