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1  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 16, 2020, 09:39:54 AM
Has anybody here ever bought BSV?

Please, be honest guys. I could do with a good laugh.

Don't be coy. You *know* I did.

Laugh all you want.

Just getting started.

Genuinely hope you sell before 3rd Feb. Take your profits (probably handsome profits) and run.

That may even be a bit late.
2  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 16, 2020, 09:38:47 AM
Can you guys please stop talking about completely irrational future gains?

You are spoiling all the fun... were it to occur. Which it won't. Probably. Just no.

Let them speculate : its fun, plus extra-bullish comments always provide a reliable guide to the top of price moves.

I don't trade, but there may be lurking shorters here who benefit from the timing guides !  
3  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 15, 2020, 12:32:35 AM
I wonder how stupid you have to be to be buying SV right now....

A lot of buyers just chase price momentum, without any idea of what is really going on in the fundamentals. They often think they can get out in time, but when this sort of move ends, liquidity evaporates and the reversal will kill most of the price in short order.

The alts certainly seem to be running on momentum alone. It is fairly positive to see BTC moving steadily higher (indicating it is not just a rotation trade), but of course it would be unwise to chase this move.

When the reversal comes, it will of course take everything down, but there will then be a good indication of where the new support lies.
4  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 07, 2020, 09:42:21 AM
I see hardly any posts nowadays about market depth (which after all is the topic of WO).

I don't collate the stats myself, and I used to rely on this (or similar) sources. Is anyone here collecting and processing bid/offer depth data ?

https://vcdepth.io/coins/bitcoin-btc
https://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/books/USD

I especially like that real-time  (edit: order book) graphic in Bitcoinity . It is a standard depth graph, but seeing those changes actually makes you realise how much noise (and rapid variation) there is in the data.

In a way, it is signalling it's own irrelevance !
5  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 07, 2020, 09:36:43 AM



......Further, like you suggested, we have experienced a few of these BTC upsurge movements, but they ended up correcting decent amounts, even if it took longer to correct than it had to go up, so in that regard, it can be difficult for buy pressure (support) to keep up if the price is just NOT ready for the Upwards movement and to establish a new station.  Personally, it would be nice to see $10k resistance to get challenged and then if necessary to settle back down into the $8,500 to $9,500 range for a few months that might end up dragging out to the halvening, or so.  ....



Yes. I merely reiterate what I have always said:   To be on course for an ATH in the next 2 years, the price needs to creep slowly upwards: small rises, small corrections, almost boringly slow.

The big pumps that end in a spike are nearly always very bad news indeed. I immediately saw that in the move to 13500 back 6 months ago. It was obvious that that one derailed the whole bull run. The second one to 10500 just made matters worse. I observe this natural pattern in many markets.

If you want a sustainable run to ATH, then hope for a tight range in the next 6 months, and a disappointingly slow boost from the halving. 10k at year end will be fine. Sorry for being the bearer of boring news, but that's life. Rejoice in the small stuff.

What about the halvening? $10k end of year would mean halvening had no effect on BTC price which is kinda weird if not impossible at all....

Getting into 5 digits and staying there is NOT a huge pump it's not even big... as we see from history halvening brings us at least to the area of previous ATH...  Cool

That can all happen, but it is the timescale that is the big variable. : Might be End 2021 rather than 2020. Cycles are getting longer as market cap gains weight.

My thesis is simply this :

 Shallowing of the long-term chart is to be expected, and is a positive ...steepening is a negative , it just interrupts the natural flow, and takes more time to be corrected.
6  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 07, 2020, 09:07:04 AM
I see hardly any posts nowadays about market depth (which after all is the topic of WO).

I don't collate the stats myself, and I used to rely on this (or similar) sources. Is anyone here collecting and processing bid/offer depth data ?
7  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 07, 2020, 09:00:00 AM



......Further, like you suggested, we have experienced a few of these BTC upsurge movements, but they ended up correcting decent amounts, even if it took longer to correct than it had to go up, so in that regard, it can be difficult for buy pressure (support) to keep up if the price is just NOT ready for the Upwards movement and to establish a new station.  Personally, it would be nice to see $10k resistance to get challenged and then if necessary to settle back down into the $8,500 to $9,500 range for a few months that might end up dragging out to the halvening, or so.  ....



Yes. I merely reiterate what I have always said:   To be on course for an ATH in the next 2 years, the price needs to creep slowly upwards: small rises, small corrections, almost boringly slow.

The big pumps that end in a spike are nearly always very bad news indeed. I immediately saw that in the move to 13500 back 6 months ago. It was obvious that that one derailed the whole bull run. The second one to 10500 just made matters worse. I observe this natural pattern in many markets.

If you want a sustainable run to ATH, then hope for a tight range in the next 6 months, and a disappointingly slow boost from the halving. 10k at year end will be fine. Sorry for being the bearer of boring news, but that's life. Rejoice in the small stuff.
8  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 07, 2020, 01:19:02 AM
today i did something different and shorted $eth for a change.

lets help them to get to their fair value.

Yeah.. even though ethereum is a fucking shit coin.... hopefully, you are not trying to get on our good side by suggesting that you are shorting shit coins.. and does not mean that you are NOT going to get rekt as fuck by playing those kinds of shorting games. 

But, hey, it's your money to lose.. #nohomo... &  #noloveforshitcoinethereum.   

Shorting any Crypto is always dangerous.

BTW, this little pump is encouraging, as it has pushed through resistance at 7600. Patience is needed, as price may well revisit the mid 7000s a few more times in the coming weeks, but a base might now be forming. Support at 6400 confirmed nicely.

Interesting to see where the high of this move comes in.
9  Economy / Speculation / Re: Halving, who's closest with actual Nrs TAKE A CHANCE on the LIST !!! on: January 05, 2020, 06:00:43 PM
I have to admit there are much more "*" in the bearish predictions as in the bullish ones

How do you calculate that ?  I see much more bullish in the * members. Current price ~7500.

I observe  21 *  predictions above 7500, only 12 * predictions below 7500.
10  Economy / Speculation / Re: Halving, who's closest with actual Nrs TAKE A CHANCE on the LIST !!! on: January 05, 2020, 05:02:13 PM
6551-6600
11  Economy / Speculation / Re: Halving, who's closest with actual Nrs TAKE A CHANCE on the LIST !!! on: January 05, 2020, 03:40:34 PM
Some have said that this halving won't have as much effect as the last two, but it's still a reduction in monetary inflation from 3.7%/yr to 1.8%/yr, which is far from nothing, and in fact I see it as permanently bringing BTC out of the inflationary era and into the deflationary era. I'm not sure that we'll see 20k again in 2020 (though it could happen), but I think that 10k+ is quite likely several months after the halving. Historically, the post-halving runup has happened some time after the halving, presumably after people started to really feel the reduced supply.

For now though I don't see enough enthusiasm or other upward pressure. To the institutional investors who most push the market, BTC is largely seen as "leveraged gold", but the US/worldwide economy looks fine for now on its surface, fiat inflation isn't a widespread concern, etc. (BTC also has fundamental value beyond its value as "gold" -- a hedge against inflation and fiat collapse --, but this is a large component of the price currently.) So absent any major news, I think that the trendline is slightly downward for now. ("Major news" would be mostly regulatory-related, such as an approved BTC ETF or increased regulatory pressure. Probably the downside risk is higher than the upside risk here.)

One point of upward pressure is that there may have been some tax-loss-harvesting sales in Q4, which would now disappear. Not sure how big of an effect this was. And you might justify early-year volatility as people locking in gains ASAP in tax year 2020.

I predict that we'll sit in the 6k-7k range for some time between now and the halving, and although I wouldn't be too surprised to see prices in the lower half of that range, I'll guess near the high end, leading to my prediction of 6751-6800 on April 1. On the other hand, I predict that the supply reduction as well as mounting worldwide economic shakiness will cause a large runup (at least above 10k) in the second half of 2020. In the unlikely event that I win, please donate the BTC to a BTC-accepting charity of your choice (eg. intelligence.org or fee.org).

Agree almost entirely. This year is most likely to see a low volatility market, with long held support at ~6400. Resistance is at 7600, so that range could see a lot of trading time. Any significant runup in the last half of the year.

Any new ATH will likely have to wait until 2021-2022. Usual caveats/other risks still apply.  The price chart cycles are getting longer, and that is only to be expected , as the heavier market cap acts as a damper to volatility.
12  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 04, 2020, 11:17:07 AM
Please don't engage the troll.

His power withers without your attention.

Our New Year's group resolution should be to stop responding to him altogether. When someone does respond, we should gently remind them of this policy.

Even if he does manage a sentence that is half coherent or relevant, please don't respond to that either, as he is only using it as a trick to draw you in for future trollery.

Don't know about you guys but I'd rather read a thousand posts about "stock-to-flow" than see one idi0t post quoted.

But most everyone on this thread are trolls imho ! This thread would be dead...
Really Roachs texts are insane but he has free speech... you can always ignore .


I've had him on ignore for several months but occasionally other people quote him and I just have to ask myself, what are they thinking??

BTW, he doesn't have "free speech" here. None of us do. We only post here with infofront's - and then the mods', and then theymos' - permission.

Actually, yes that is a good point... also, it's really off-topic as well.

But I still think that a few intelligent (even with unacceptable content) troll posts do keep the board 'on its toes'
13  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 04, 2020, 11:03:26 AM
Please don't engage the troll.

His power withers without your attention.

Our New Year's group resolution should be to stop responding to him altogether. When someone does respond, we should gently remind them of this policy.

Even if he does manage a sentence that is half coherent or relevant, please don't respond to that either, as he is only using it as a trick to draw you in for future trollery.

Don't know about you guys but I'd rather read a thousand posts about "stock-to-flow" than see one idi0t post quoted.

Free speech is important. At least it's not vapid meaningless stuff, and they are quite thought provoking and intelligent.


Reading that text makes you understand what you believe and why certain types of attitude are unhelpful. Edit :Responses: perhaps not so much, if only because it is so off-topic.


His posts have a striking similarity to the chatbots which learn all the nasty stuff from from engaging with forums, holding up a filter mirror to society, and they do actually have value in that context.
14  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 25, 2019, 01:09:30 AM

Well, supply will be cut in half, and unless you also believe that demand will be cut in half at the exact same time, price will rise. It's really that simple.

Nope, sorry, I can't see it that way. If it were so, the chart would show a step change in price at the point of halving. Demand is to a large extent already discounting (anticipating) future events, because it is so tied up with speculation. The flows and changes are complex. That's the reason you often see an opposite reaction ( to that expected) when an anticipated price sensitive event happens.

edit : Merry Christmas !!
15  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 25, 2019, 12:25:56 AM

I read your post as being exceedingly cautious, Majormax, and you already likely recognize that I continue to believe that there is a bit more underlying buying pressures than the amount that you seem to be willing to accept present.  Furthermore, supply is a pretty damned underlying force, whether you want to categorize it as "secondary" or not...  supply is a kind of hard pressure that inevitably ends up biting the bears in the ass.. especially any of them who under estimate its power, after they are manipulating down for much longer and much lower than can be contained and ends up resulting in a lot of irrational and uncontainable upwards FOMO buying... which is likely going to be another history that repeats itself... surely not guaranteed in any kind of way, but a seeming likely outcome... time and degree to be determined.   Wink

You are quite right. I think it wise to be cautious.

I wouldn't categorise supply as a 'force', but demand acts more like the pressure. If you had to say which was more active and which more passive, how would you label them ?

Supply is more a variable which is acted upon by demand, and I suppose that is my point in saying that the effect of halving is not a given. Only when demand is absolutely assured and permanent does supply become the active variable.
16  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 24, 2019, 08:40:21 PM
...Cutting production (per block) in half, while cost of production (per block) remains the same, could make mining unprofitable, unless the price rises.



..but it doesn't actually affect the price per se. Mining becomes unprofitable, hashrate falls, difficulty falls. The price drives this action, this action doesn't drive the price. Aggregate demand is always key to price changes, and it dances mainly to other tunes.
17  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 24, 2019, 07:16:17 PM
She is right at what she is posting latter. But the first post you quoted is really silly. Bitcoin price is so unstable that will be way different next week not just a year from now. The point she is right about is that future trading makes bitcoin more stable. So growths and declines will be less sharp. Both ways will be more stable not just the way up. And that is good, money need to be as stable as can be.

The first serious derivative salvo arrived just at the death of the last bubble and since then it's been a steady decline into poo soup.

She's right to raise the possibility. That's unquestionably where most of the 'institutional investors' will prefer to go, but everything flies out the window if there's proper a bubble on or the sniff of one.

We need all this new guff to be present for another 2-3 complete cycles before its effects can be properly analysed. Until then it's just groping in the dark.


As posters have said, nobody can claim to know for sure, and that includes the most bullish cheerleaders....

So, there is indeed a possibility that BTC does not rise due to the next halving. There have only been 2 halvings so far, way too little for a certain judgment.  Price is always dependent on demand first and foremost... supply is important, but it is secondary.

The next bubble, if and when it happens , will have to be a function of a very large amount of fresh capital entering the market. The numbers required are much larger now than in previous bull phases.
18  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 18, 2019, 12:58:20 AM
I donít think it works like that.  These arenít futures in the conventional sense. 

For a long position on Bitfinex you borrow $US to buy BTC on physical market

For a short position you borrow BTC and sell on physical market.

Someone will quickly correct me if I am wrong.

In that case the BTC will either have to be lent by the counterparty or sold by them. I admit I don't know how Bitfinex works.

Are we saying that Bitfinex itself is therefore acting as the defacto trade counterparty ?  That sounds distinctly dodgy.
19  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 18, 2019, 12:49:39 AM
What kind of sorcery is this?

This looks ridiculous. Rubbing my eyes for the 2e time... Tongue



https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BITFINEX%3ABTCUSDLONGS

This is too out of scale to be a "candid" long position building.
Noticing it started when BAKKT started. Maybe a coincidence?
This is something I will try to look into.
Very intresting.


Opened a thread: this thing is too interesting IMHO:
LONGS on BITFINEX going PARABOLIC

If enough of these longs get liquidated, all the hell will brake loose.
They have been building this longs since one months.
Whoever did that has deep pockets

This is an unprecedented open position, so worth a bit more thought :

Who will be on the short side of this total position ?  It cannot be assumed that the larger traders (or whale) are taking the long side.  The large trader(s) are working progressively either  on the bid side to create a long, or on the offer side to create a short.  The circumstantial evidence obviously points to a short side position,  because the trades have been at successively lower and lower prices. Think about it.

Usually there is a lot of noise in the market, which will mask the way the open interest has happened, but in this unusual case it is crystal clear.

As to the motivation for the position, or the next step in some plan, anyone have any suggestions ?  

The best guess is that this trend will continue for now,  prices walking downwards for some time, with regular snap-back rallies.

20  Economy / Economics / Re: Inflation and Deflation of Price and Money Supply on: December 16, 2019, 12:55:17 AM
Inflation is when prices rise, and deflation is when prices fall. You can have both inflation and deflation at the same time in various asset classes. When taken to their extremes, both are bad for economic growth, but for different reasons. That's why the Federal Reserve, the nation's central bank, tries to control them.

Price changes are merely a symptom of inflation. The original, first definition is an increase in supply of money ( claims on assets and GDP) relative to the supply of assets and GDP. Thus inflation in most economies has already happened to an enormous degree in the past 10 years. Price changes have mostly yet to happen, but could still be forestalled by a balancing deflation.

All goods, assets and incomes will always experience their own rates of price change, depending on their individual relationship with the changing base money.

Central banks have no power to control price changes, but they use various tools (interest rates, repos, QE etc..) as a means to supposedly target a certain price outcome.

These are the reasons there is so much confusion in the measure and definition of the word 'inflation'.
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