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163
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: June 23, 2019, 10:13:38 PM
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We are at Dec 3, 2017´s price... 12 days later we were at ATH.
Based on the above we could be in the next bear market within a month. That is a very good observation. The exponential rise we are in at present is just the sort of move that ends a bull run, and starts a long bear market. However, comparisons with Dec 2017 are invalid for a number of reasons. My own observation is that the medium-term chart looks strange compared with 2015-6. Price has significantly deviated from the nice steady early stage bull market of the first few months of the year, and now resembles a late-stage bull run. However, that is not to say that there couldn't be other developments. That makes for a greater unpredictability. |
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164
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: June 21, 2019, 11:59:53 PM
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...it was by about 12 months longer.
Either we're in for one hell of a hangover and sideways melancholy for partying too soon ... or this is the beginning of a bull run party the likes of which bitcoiners haven't yet witnessed ... we could bull on until late 2021 ...
It felt like 12 years longer. I'm down with a lengthy consolidation but maybe there's too much appetite for now. I wonder what the next couple of years holds. Perhaps we're too hung up on this psychological barrier. Still 50% down on the high. Yes. 10k is not so significant, but still acts as a magnet for sentiment. Price is likely to oscillate around 10k in preference to another level. At some point of course, a lengthy consolidation or correction will set in. Picking the levels of support might not be that easy, but picking the timing is much more difficult. |
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165
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: June 21, 2019, 11:54:10 PM
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I cant fucking believe 3 years ago i was wetting my pants on the idea that we would break 1200 $ lol
The return to over $1000 was a major, major deal. I remember my cockles warming up rapidly when it happened. That felt like a humongously longer haul than this. ...it was by about 12 months longer. Either we're in for one hell of a hangover and sideways melancholy for partying too soon ... or this is the beginning of a bull run party the likes of which bitcoiners haven't yet witnessed ... we could bull on until late 2021 ... Could be one or the other, but more likely something in between, as always. Any correction needs to be just enough to restore the uncertainty of the rise. |
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167
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: June 06, 2019, 09:47:24 AM
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$BTC Pullback Areas
The lowest I see Bitcoin pulling back is the .618 fib ($5404) as any lower would be bearish, IMO
Major confluence w/ previous support/resistance between $6109 to $6814
I'm personally watching for a bounce in this area with major interest near $6400 (VPVR) https://twitter.com/Josh_Rager/status/1136479195394191366/photo/1 Note the timescale on this. Just as important as the levels. The major 6200 area could take until November to resolve. Returning to current levels by year end would be very positive. I think 5400 unlikely, but if there is a return to this range, then it will be into 2020 before the uptrend resumes in earnest. 5400-6400 is also less likely to be a long trading range, because halving will be looming by then. |
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170
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: June 04, 2019, 08:13:55 AM
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Was $9K the top for a while? Kind of an ugly failure.....and now price has melted back into the previous range. Never a good sign. Maybe it's time to go back to $6K like masterluc was predicting.
I guess it was an expected correction, similar happened during the last cycle in 2015. You can't just keep going up, up, up, up, up without some pull backs. People take profits, all we’re doing is taking a breather. Nothing to worry about, it’s maybe time to buy the dip. Entirely as expected. There were a lot of long positions and bullishness around (probably still are). Needs time and work to consolidate. A few months between 6.5 and 8.5k would not be surprising, and actually quite a positive. |
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171
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: May 28, 2019, 08:01:18 AM
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still hovering on the levels of the last rise.
this is looking stable, it doenst want to go down
solid level for the next rise
SUMMER OF PUMP 2019 coming
Do you think? I’d rather we had a slow, steadier rise than last time, at least until we reach the halving. I’m not in the mood for an unsustainable, parabolic rise now if we’re just going to get a major correction again. I’ve tried to meticulously plan what I’m going to do this time but I’m not really prepared for any kind of selling, at least mentally, until the end of 2020 at the earliest. Bitcoin will do what it wants to do though so I guess we must be prepared for all scenarios. I really think 2021 is the time we’ll see fireworks though in this cycle. I think it’s far too early to expect a new ATH this summer. a new ATH would be nice before the halvening, between 30k and 70k after that a crash down and then a new rise after the halvening. Adoption is rising and big players are getting into the game. Infrastructure is being buildt and me might get an ETF this year. Things are set up for a new wave of adaption. The price looks quite parabolic but yet not too steep, so things are looking quite good. Nobody knows, i can just say it feels like it going to do something that nobody is expecting That scenario is very unlikely, and undesirable IMO. When that sort of parabolic rise ends, another crypto winter is more likely than anything else. The 2016 chart is more instructive, and that suggests a few pullbacks this year, ending higher but not ATH. |
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172
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: May 27, 2019, 01:31:00 PM
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Bob, I see 0 volume. Are you on the jenkem?
Shh. Patience. Drums in the deep. EDIT: OK, maybe "wave" and "strap in" was too hyperbolic. Expecting to test $9k in the next few hours. EDIT2: And to further clarify my gut feeling, once we breach $9k, I expect massive profit-taking, followed by dogs and cats, living together. EDIT3: My position remains. HODLing and do not intend to divest any further BTC until after the halvening - but not before 2021 - Waiting for Rick to independently retire, and figure out what we want to do with the rest of our life together. Possibly divest BTC to reinvest in 100+ acre real estate/ranch in rural area. Optimism is good, and the moves here are giving credence to the case that the bull market is establishing itself. You are quite right that massive profit taking will come, but the level from which it starts is difficult to estimate. The current price wave is unsustainable in the longer trend. A glance at the chart makes this obvious. If we are to get to a new ATH in the next year or so, a strong pullback would be needed in order to consolidate the overbought positions. The recent moves have almost broken with the 2014-16 pattern, but that only means that predictability has declined, not that a new roadmap can be put in place. |
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174
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: May 23, 2019, 09:31:03 AM
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$7,550 on Stamp as I type this message.
Would be nice to stop the bleed now to be honest.
It's not really a bleed IMO. This is just the middle of a trading range being established. Support at 6200 resistance at 8400. Could hold for some time. I may be wrong, but my reasons for choosing those numbers are the sharp price moves which tested those levels. A good deal of consolidation is needed, and that will be positive for the longer term picture. |
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175
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: May 22, 2019, 08:37:03 AM
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Why do you think the value of BSV is linked to Wright being Satoshi ? Isn't it merely a piece of code, like BTC, that will garner its own support/ or not, if it is useful.
Because the recent price movements are 100% due to the actions of CSW, not anything else. BSV didn't suddenly cut a deal with Apple or Amazon or something. Wright filed a copyright claim, coingeek worded it in a way to make it seem like it proved he was Satoshi, and a bunch of illiterate investors got tricked into believing it. All crypto is subject to short term manipulation, but long term survival/success is not down to the creator of the code, nor is it linked to speculation/manipulation of price. If the 'Provably Real' Satoshi were to turn up today, his current-day input would not necessarily be of any greater value than many core developers who are involved on a daily basis. Probably the best thing BSV has going for it was its Airdrop to a large number of committed Crypto holders. |
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176
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: May 22, 2019, 07:43:30 AM
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Regarding SV's latest price action, its safe to say that the majority of SV's market cap value rests on the idea that Wright is Satoshi, and not much else. There was already a bigger block experiment called BCH, and its been steadily falling in price against BTC since December 2017. The market has all but rejected it. There's no logical reason to think the market will suddenly become hungry for an even bigger block experiment given BCH's past performance.
So the value of BSV lies on Wright proving himself to be Satoshi, and not much else. It doesn't have to do with the "tech" as it is admittedly an older version of bitcoin. If you believe Wright is Satoshi, by all means, pile into SV. Let's just not pretend its about exciting new tech or that it isn't a personality-driven coin. BSV did not shoot up not based on its technical merits but because of Wright's actions. One misstep from Wright or ruling not in his favor will have the opposite effect of his recent copyright filing.
Why do you think the value of BSV is linked to Wright being Satoshi ? Isn't it merely a piece of code, like BTC, that will garner its own support/ or not, if it is useful. |
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177
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: May 20, 2019, 09:38:39 AM
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Bitcoin moves up and down as a ladder-pattern. Once again, Bitcoin fastly moves above $8000 after its correction to below $7000 days ago. What's next station for bitcoin during this bull run? I guess that in best scenario, when bitcoin gets enough support and momentum, it might moves up around 20 percent from its current price. That means bitcoin might reach somewhere around $9600 or even higher a little bit. Retest the resistance around $10000, why not?
$8600 is the tipping point of the see saw ... if we break through $8600 we can easily see $10K. If we can't push through $8600 I think a retest of $6000 is looking likely. My own view is that the recent action has now defined a new and firm trading range .. $6200 to $8400. The price could range in there for some time. That would be a positive development for longer term consolidation. |
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179
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: May 19, 2019, 03:27:25 PM
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Probably the odds of an ETF approval any time soon, in the coming months or even this year are pretty low.
It seems that the hands of the SEC is going to need to be forced before approval takes place, and if there is some kind of feeling that they are being forced, even by potential competition of some other jurisdiction getting "in" first, then under those circumstances they might approve an ETF.
...
IMO the last thing BTC needs is an ETF. If and when it comes it could be the end of the bull run, like the futures in 2017. Better to keep the uncertainty going for as long as possible. The trend is becoming better established now . The recent test of 6200 was a positive sign, as I predicted here : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg51004585#msg51004585 |
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180
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: May 15, 2019, 08:09:19 AM
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Diversification is about picking the best of each market segment and buying a little of each. It is not about chasing penny stocks.
Portfolio performance is only gained with a range of stocks from each sector. The lower caps will always be more volatile and some will outperform the dominant stock. We are only talking investment intent and actions here, not fundamental value. Therefore investment is about chasing penny stocks , and medium cap stocks, just as much as big-cap stocks. The sort of investors we are talking about see cryptos as stocks, so plenty of money will flow into alts, and many will outperform BTC (considering price alone) |
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