That is a fair way of putting it, and yes, I would broadly agree with those 'guesstimates'.

'upwardly skewed bellcurve'   : I also like that term !   It can be termed bullish, even though there are very significant probabilities of loss in the next few years.

Thanks for that.

I'm preparing to be bored for the next year or two.  Best way IMO.  

You could always follow the stock market : that will be more exciting.

Hopefully, that maybe the case.  That 200-300 range was only around double the last-but-one high. The 2nd 2013 low of 65 was also around double the last-but-one high.

The last-but-one high now is $1300. That gives credence to my 'overshoot' theory as well.

I would rather stay in 6k range for a lot longer, to consolidate, than risk a return to more volatility and possibly lower low.  One of the biggest complaints about BTC last year was the extreme volatility. A stable and narrow range for a long time would clear that issue, whilst giving time for infrastructure to build out more.

More depressing if we don't hold this level through January, which is the alternative implied by Hairy. Then the bottom would, I agree , probably be in by September 2019, although it will be lower (not guessing exactly where). That will require a longer climb out of the trough.

If you look at the long term chart, it could be the case that the bowl formations at the bottom of bear markets are getting longer (that would also chime with a maturing market : less volatility). I would not like to think that a new ATH will take longer than it did in 2014-17, but it does remain a realistic possiblity.  The 2 peaks of 2013 which may have seemed possible back in March have now been rendered all but unachievable by the time frame of the current range.

In order to withstand the grinding slowness of a long consolidation, may I suggest this optimistic way of looking at it :

The peak of Dec 2017 was in fact an overshoot, caused by the opening of Chicago Mainstream Futures contracts. But for this the high could have been where it was a year ago ie about 4-5k. The present position might fall back as low as 4k, but it will then be on solid ground, with the long rising trend intact.

BTC might initially have had those former uses, but is steadily moving away from its experimental past, and that is a very big positive.

Regulations treating BTC as a mainstream asset, including AML and institutional KYC, are already essential at the fiat interface, but the treatment of transfers in crypto alone are a different question.

On one level, regulations about crypto transfers are defacto recognising it offically as money. That may not be a route that monetary authorities want to go down at present.

In most juristictions, all valuable assets are required to be registered in some way,and that usually is a positve in terms of ownership law and security. If BTC is outside that system it will always have a deficiency in terms of adoption and mainstream recognition.

I would envisage BTC and some other cryptos eventually coming within all of that, with most others remaining in the grey zone ,with the concomitant freedoms and also drawbacks of that status.




Surely the primary facet of cryptos (and the one for which BTC was born) is to provide a parallel monetary store and exchange system, as a refuge from the eventual insolvency of the current fiat regime ?


Over the long term, the free market should decide whether that is a worthy, recognised or necessary function.

Spot on IMO. Of course , chart patterns don't repeat precisely, but this long term cycle is very, very clear to anyone who wishes to see it.  

Confirmation before trading take a lot of patience when you are looking at this timescale.

I would say its possible that there will be be another downleg into 2019, but there is also a chance that the low is already in, and the next year or so is just going to be a boring sideways action, with a bit of chop-chop to skim the frequent traders.

Thanks for the detailed responses !

So we agree on the 10% probabilty (without collusion) !  

It is axiomatic that forecasting price movements is difficult, and its tempting to just give up on the calculations and guess, or say 'nobody knows'.  However, we have to have a stab at it somehow.

We all have our own methods of forecasting. Many posters seem to me to quote some random number for future price, without any indication of how they came up with it. Some post charts, some use a form of (very valid) psycho analysis (JJG being one of the best exponents of that !) delving into the biases and the misconceptions of others. Akin to the Contrarian approach, which has a good track record.

I have had a career and made a living in trading. My stance is this :

Every future price outcome has a probability of some sort.... maybe some sort of bell curve. The regularity of a simple bell curve denies all forecasts. Without a real edge, large numbers of trades can only break-even ,  the market-makers/brokers spread becomes the aggregate loss. It becomes simply a market-makers tool for , say, derivatives pricing.

 If you can break the curve down into groups/blocks, and analyze each one individually from some other, different perspective, you may be able to diminish or enhance the likelihood of one part, which then gives a meaningful edge of sorts.

I don't believe so either, but nobody can be certain. I believe that price volatility has continued to decline, and therefore it is a reasonable assumption that 5k may have marked the bottom.

On a positive  note, a fall to 3k in 4 months would indicate volatility is still very high, and therefore there is a lot more adoption to come :  ie.  much higher future prices.

I am neither a bear nor a bull but wish to arrive at a realistic likelihood of various outcomes. ....

There are 3 main ways to view the future.

1.  BTC will aways be the leading digital money, increase dominance, and large returns are still possible.

2. Technical failure or crippling of some sort (low probabilty, but still possible)

3. Another crypocurrecy ascends to dominance.


I would put odds of perhaps 10% on #2, and 45% on each of #1 and 3.


Price targets for 2021 for :

#1  30k

#2   sub-1k

#3   8k


Conclusion... good odds of positive ROI from current level.

Just about possible, but timeframe looks wrong for that. IF we are going to $3k (hopefully not) , then it will take longer. The market may be too mature for that type of volatility.

A stall in the 5k to 7k range for another 6 months, then a slow roller-coaster climb to 12k in 2020 is perhaps more realistic. 100% ROI in 15 months is pretty good.

Ultimately, with the numbers of large alts now becoming more globally viable, it is worth considering the possiblilty that BTC has seen its ATH already.

Even some of the more optimistic predictions back in 2013  had 10k as the final target, and a steady decrease in volatility as that price approached.

Top at 6.8 or 7.4 has less meaning... The key is what happens on the next dip. Where is the low, and how well is it rejected ?

If the low comes in around 6k that suggests we are stuck in the same range. Above 6300 is good.  A bounce from there to 7k+ even better.

If below 5.8k, then a new bear leg is likely. Hunker down for another year of winter.

I have always believed that is the case.


The speculative frenzy of alts has drawn in huge numbers of people looking for quick profit, but it has also pushed them to learn a bit about the tech.

As the BTC dominance increases, many will rotate back into BTC as a safe haven.

In the end , there will be far more BTC hodlers than if alts had never existed.

This is the key to the attractiveness of digital currency.  The downside is that an owner has to take responsibility for their own security.

With a custodial service, there is an insurance/assurance that the registered owner cannot have the asset stolen, without compensation from the custodian. Disenfranchisement can only come from the contract terms, or failure of the custodian.

I like your analysis generally. 

Most posters, as you point out, come out with proclamations based on either nothing, or misread/false facts.

Given that nobody has a crystal ball, it takes a bit of skill and experience to express a cogent scenario. Making cases for alternative price moves is nearly always the best way.


'Baby Winter'  :  could be possible, and it helps the case for the bottom being already in. If its a full Winter, then a bottom in the 2-3k range is more possible. I hate the idea of that, but the market often makes us take the worst tasting medicine.

Whichever way, it will be a long climb out, and patience is needed.

..and it will stay undervalued during the current 'Crypto Winter', I would guess at least another year.


There will be time to accumulate more between $1 and $3 whilst ppl worry about holding any sort of crypto.

Truth is, very, very few speculators even bother to do proper research, so there will not yet be widespread recognition of how and why this project is so different from the rest.

Patience.

Is that because things don't look gloomy enough ? (yet)  .. or because it won't happen ?

How long at these levels or lower, before the CryptoWinter definition is met ?

I am not trying to be pessimistic here, because it is important to be open to all possibilities.

Maybe you could say that, by the time the Crypto Winter is easily visible, we will have been in it long enough for it to be over !

Thanks. That makes good sense.

From a purely chartist standpoint, at this level of $ price, there is really no support showing until $10, just an air pocket.

I think the relative BTC price is more worrying in a way. It is in a similar position, breaking support.  

Charts don't really provide too much comfort, and I would say the level of denial/hope is more relevant. In some ways, that is painting an even worse picture.

 I am reluctant to be a trader,  but although ETH looks like a strong sell right here, there is a significant risk that the bottom is close. Any bounce could be strong.

How do you estimate the $100 figure ? 

Yes. Impossible to predict the long term price moves, only the market can show you. Better to miss the first 25% of a bull market, than to lose a large indeterminate chunk (could easily be 75% or more) of your capital.

Unfortunately, it is natural to be impatient for action, so those losses are the norm.