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1  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 20, 2021, 02:50:24 PM


Not sure what the tax code is going to look like next year - with talk of increasing long term capital gains - so I'm trying to hedge a bit more fiat short term, just incase.

suggest you do some searches on the proposed tax changes...  the current bill makes the tax change retroactive to Sept 13th of this year... So if you are trying to beat the changes, it may already been to late...
2  Economy / Speculation / Re: Who else wakes up every day asking if this is the day I'm taking some profits on: April 13, 2021, 01:31:43 PM
I never wake up asking myself if I should or will take profits today.

I almost always wake up thinking "DID I take profits while I slept"...

Back when bitcoin was doing nothing, I sat down and made a spreadsheet detailing exactly at what price and how much I'd sell for, and at what price points I should follow up and buy the dips.  Doing this back then allowed me to take my time on making the decisions, and do so without having emotions drive the decisions.   

Now, I just follow the plan.. Its much less stressful, and so far, previous me seems to have made the correct decisions.. 

So.. my advice is:

make a plan
follow the plan
and most importantly, keep emotions out of it...

Sigg
3  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 02, 2021, 07:54:21 PM
A short bitcoin success story:

I just submitted my last time sheet.  Officially Retired at age 50.

Mined my first coin in 2011....

Sold enough and diversified so that I can ride out the next crash (and buy the dip of course).

HODLing a even more ...  

and coming to realize, we are in fact, gentleman.

Regards all....

Sigg.
4  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 18, 2021, 01:49:55 AM
I have offically joined the ranks of retired WO gentleman. Working just seems kinda pointless.

I don't have any immediate plans to sell a big chunck of my stash - I'll just dip into it as needed.

Go Bitcoin go!


I think this might be becoming a thing... my last day is April 2nd..  officially retiring early.  Sold a smallish chunk to diversify so that if we have an 80% crash, I can ride it out without selling the dip... but yeah.. mostly the same plan.   good feelings Smiley
5  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 20, 2021, 11:25:17 PM
These people who sell are always a step ahead. After 8 years of hodling I was ready to sell my first small amount BTC (not the one I bought Oct 2020) at $59444. And they knew many people will sell at 59k ish so they started the sell off at 57k  Roll Eyes Now I will rethink if I sell below $99k  Cool

How about don't sell at all. At these price levels, there are ways to make an income of 10s of thousands USD a month on your exsisting stash without selling. This applies to stashes under 10 BTC too. Life is good at these levels.

That shock from the 2017/18 bull run dump still sits very deep. Even though the 2013/14 dump was bad as well, 2017/18 was a real shock. Taking profits in case of a surprising dump is not bad. I know we will pass 100k. But I believe we will see a bigger dump before we pass 60k. If 2013 cycle repeats the real run will be in the end of the year. And between March until end of summer it could be bearish. At the end, we are all just speculating. Some are good at it and some not.

Edit: I am also curious about that income you talking about.

I honestly understand, especially if you need money to buy a home or other need. My point really is that you shouldn't sell to buy a lambo or any stupid shit like that.


How about elaborating on that a little more, somac.?  Wink ELI5...

Ways to make an income from your current stash:

1. Lend your coins. celsius.network etc
2. Sell BTC futures
3. Sell BTC covered calls

Take your pick on which works best. And yes for some of those things you may have to deliver but, you are in it for the income, just buy the BTC back, even if it is at a higher a price, rinse and repeat.

Hint: covered calls are a great way to sell you BTC, rather than the traditional sell at certain price point on normal exchange.

And where is it that I can sell covered calls on BTC?  (note: in the US, so has to be someplace that allows US customers)
6  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 12, 2021, 02:30:52 PM
Now, having thought about this, I can think of one argument that would negate some of the above:  If you are arguing specifically that renewables reduce the albedo of the earth, causing less radiation (and thus heat) to be reflected back into space I'll give you that side of the argument as a possibility.. I'll need to do some research to see if this is actually the case.

One of the only valid critiques of PoW mining, but I don't think we are even remotely close to it being an issue

I wish I would have thought to add this to my original reply.. yes, in the grand scheme of things, even if renewables reduce the albedo, I think the amount would be somewhat less than a rounding error and have an absolutely negligible effect when compared to other environmental concerns.
7  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 12, 2021, 02:20:06 PM
Can we keep climate change FUD (directed to Bitcoin - FUD) out of this thread, please?

It's actually good to try to educate people on this and how it works as far as bitcoin is concerned.

What do miners do? They mine.
What do miners "pay"? They pay the cost of electricity to mine.

So what is it they want to do? They want to lower their cost of electricity so they pay less to mine. They want to keep more profit. Some want to HODL the difference.

A lot of miners tend to migrate (physically) their machines to locations where electricity is cheap, or where there is no other user of that energy. They tend to look for renewable sources of energy, or other natural kind of stuff, like hydro, tidal, solar, wind ... maybe even nuclear. Energy that would just be wasted or not used because they are so far from the rest of humanity or civilization.

See, the actual mining machines do not need to be located where people live. They can be in remote places. Some places are naturally colder, like both ends of the earth, the north and south poles, Iceland, Greenland, Russia, Canada, Santa's Village, whatever.

It's not as big an issue as the naysayers think. Besides, miners who mine where they live, they pay for that electricity anyway, so what's the big deal? Humans are willing to pay $1 per kilowatt to live where they live. Mining machines tend to look for whereever the cost of electricity is below 1 cent per kilowatt hour. 2 is okay. 1 is good. Zero is better.

All this energy not being used for any other purpose then goes on to securing the bitcoin network.

Now, we can all sleep at night knowing our money, or safe haven asset, one that has been performing better than anything else in the market, is secure, and will likely be secure for the next one hundred years.

I'd also like to add that I take exception to the "heat" argument with regards specifically and only to renewable energy.   For renewables, heat release to environment is a net-zero.  Heat energy comes in as solar radiation (and lets face it, ultimately all renewable energy, except tidal is at it source solar.)  Either that solar radiation gets absorbed when it first hits, and get immediately turned into either heat/evaporation/plant growth/wind, and all of these eventually wind up as heat down the line, or that solar radiation gets turned into electricity, and then gets turned into the same amount of heat when it runs an ASIC.   Conservation of energy.. physics is a bitch.  

Now, having thought about this, I can think of one argument that would negate some of the above:  If you are arguing specifically that renewables reduce the albido of the earth, causing less radiation (and thus heat) to be reflected back into space I'll give you that side of the argument as a possibility.. I'll need to do some research to see if this is actually the case.
8  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 08, 2021, 11:30:59 PM
This pump for ants was showing initial potential. This may not be everything we saw in green for tonight. I expect continuation.

There just are no sellers right now.

sure there are sellers... I just watched a over 100BTC wall get sold at 46k in under a minute on coinbase pro...    Grin
9  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 18, 2020, 01:01:02 AM
Send the tax man a check now. I had a friend cash out 200k in december 2017 he sold 11 coins at about 19k.

 he let the cash burn a hole in his pocket.  decided to buy back in when coins dropped to 10k and then did not have any cash to pay the tax man.

If your tax bill is 400k at least send in 200k don’t  fuck around.

Current max tax rate in US for long-term gains is 20%.

one would wish this were true... don't forget to add in the Net Investment Income Tax (an additional 3.8%) that kicks in somewhere between 200 and 400k

also don't forget most states want their cut also (in some states topping out over 12%)

between these two that 20% max just turned into 35%  Sad

10  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 10, 2019, 05:22:30 PM

It is true. This only applies to people subject to US taxation (citizens and residents) and it doesn't matter where they dump the coins.

Yes, you owe the tax whether you sell or not. It is the same for U.S. stocks when a company goes public, original employees of the company are often given stock in the public company and they owe tax on the value of the stock on the day the company goes public whether they sell or not. This normally means they have to sell some of the stock to pay the taxes due.


What if a fork isn't on an exchange on the day it's created? Does that mean it is treated as zero value? Most Bitcoin forks struggle to get on an exchange within weeks of their creation. Some never even get on an exchange.

This is from their FAQ:

"When you receive cryptocurrency from an airdrop following a hard fork, you will have ordinary income equal to the fair market value of the new cryptocurrency when it is received, which is when the transaction is recorded on the distributed ledger, provided you have dominion and control over the cryptocurrency so that you can transfer, sell, exchange, or otherwise dispose of the cryptocurrency."

https://www.irs.gov/individuals/international-taxpayers/frequently-asked-questions-on-virtual-currency-transactions

I guess you would have to have a good justification for showing what the fair market value was even if it wasn't on an exchange such as any trading activity you could find on this board or elsewhere.

Again, I'm not a tax lawyer.. but in relation to coins on an exchange, I take "when it is received" to mean that you gain control at the time the coins are credited to your account on the exchange, and you should pay income for fair market value at that time....   At least to me that would be a good faith effort that would prolly be kosher with the IRS.   The "provided you have dominion yada yada yada" part kind or precludes getting taxed at the moment of creation if the exchange drags its feet by a couple weeks.. as you specifically DO NOT have dominion over the new coins till the exchange posts them to your account.
11  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 10, 2019, 02:56:35 PM
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kellyphillipserb/2019/10/09/irs-issues-new-guidance-on-the-tax-treatment-of-cryptocurrency/#4f7b79d459e5

Looks like they want to treat the hardforks and airdrops now as taxable income events. Hopefully someone can explain how that isn't the case. All I need is to worry about now is keeping track of the 50 shitcoin hardforks and airdrops that get created everyday. That makes no sense so I assume I am wrong somehow.

No you're right. But you don't have to worry about it. It's rather a good news in fact, I hope it will be enforced heavily.

The idea is that you can be taxed ONLY if you sell the result of the fork. If there is a fork and you don't do anything with the coins then nothing is taxable.

How is it a good news? Well it decreases the incentive of a fork. Because tons of people won't get the new coins, knowing they will be taxed.

Hence less shitcoins and less forks.

So, having read the PDF, and noting that I am not a tax lawyer:

It all basically comes down to if you have control of the hard forked / airdropped coins. 

If your BTC are on an exchange, and a hard fork or airdrop occurs where the exchange credits you the new coins... then you are on the hook for the income as you have control of the new coins in your exchange account.

If your BTC are on an exchange, and a hard fork or airdrop occurs where the exchange DOES NOT credit you the new coins... then you are in the clear, you don't owe anything on the new coins.

If your BTC are in a personal wallet, and a hard fork/airdrop occurs..  If you know about it and download the "new" wallet so you can have control of the new coins, again you are on the hook.. report that income.

If your BTC are in a personal wallet, and a hard fork/airdrop occurs..  If you are unaware of it, and never download the new wallet... It will prolly come down to how understanding the IRS auditor is..  either you owe it, cuz you *could* get control if you downloaded the new wallet,  or you don't owe, cuz you obviously wouldn't download a wallet for something you were completely unaware of...

12  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 27, 2019, 04:24:48 PM
You boys should be ashamed of yourselves plastering these semi pornographic pictures all over this very serious thread.
What about these girls' characters anyway? that's what you should be wondering. Perhaps No 1 is interested in 17th century French Literature?
Perhaps Miss Middle escaped across the Syrian border with just a few coins and her wily conversational skills. The third one can obviously cater a banquet for 500 in her sleep and speak six languages. And yet you leer and lust like pigs smh

While I don't have any issues with French Literature loving bottoms (rather enjoy them actually), it IS making keeping up with the thread while at work at bit on the problematic side..... Sad

Need to see at least 2 more doubles in price before I can afford to not be bothered with this issue during business hours...





 
13  Economy / Speculation / Re: John McAfee Says- If Bitcoin Breaks 100k you can bet it will break a million on: June 26, 2019, 02:59:27 PM
John McAfee, the future presidential candidate says that If Bitcoin Breaks 100k you can bet it will break a million.

What's your point of view on this, let me know!

John McAfee is crazy and fuckedmind person.

He's a troll, don't care about the troll and don't feed the troll. Ignore him.

    I think he is right about this. Anything is possible with Bitcoin, and if price get to 100k what can stop it from getting to
1 Million? Remember that many people never imagined that Bitcoin can get to 10k, we are there twice in two years. With
right we wonder is this the last time we saw price of Bitcoin under 10k!? Maybe June 2019 will be remembered by that.

While I'm all for treating price jumps as percentage gains instead of raw values.. there does come a time when that breaks down... 

1k to 10k.. yeah.. treat that as a 1000% gain and compare that to 10k to 100k ..  that is reasonable..  In the grand scheme of things, the market caps on all of these are a rounding error....

100k to 1MM however...  getting to 1MM will require a not insignificant amount of the world's wealth..   I do put 1MM well within the realm of possible... I do not think it will happen as quick or easy as the 1k -> 10k -> 100k  jumps...

14  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 26, 2019, 02:04:28 PM
I'm starting to lose motivation at work...

I know the feeling well...  I have a backlog of stuff to do, and I'm sitting here staring at the price and reading forums....   

(and also daydreaming about how the "I quit" meeting could go..... )

15  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 26, 2019, 01:51:21 PM
This is unsustainable. The price will be under $10k before the end of the year, and stay there until Libra takes over. Bitcoin is done. Short bitcoin.

... and now I'm comfortable that we are well and truly into a bull run....
16  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 25, 2019, 01:52:16 PM
Ok, I’m going to sell 15% at $25,000. JJG, you’ll be happy to know I’ve perfected my plan now in theory.
Way too much way too early. 1% maybe at $100k. Maybe.

Depends...   what if 15% at 25k locks in just enough to quit ones job and be financially comfortable for the rest of your life?   Everyone needs to look at their own situation and optimize for best life quality.     Make the plan now, and don't get wrapped up in FOMO when it hits....

Just a random thoughts...  
17  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 21, 2019, 01:35:36 PM

The sooner we go parabolic, the lower the ultimate blow-off top will be..  Prolly good loooong term, but not exactly optimal for my short term retirement plans....


Just like sex....

As stated in chapter 4 of the Kama Sutra guide to investing.....

18  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 21, 2019, 01:24:46 PM
Anybody have a slight feeling we’re pumping too much, too fast? I think we’ll touch $10,000 but it wouldn’t surprise me if we corrected to $7,500 ish.

I've had this feeling most days since we went from 63xx to 73xx in one day ...  I'd be perfectly happy if we bounced around in the 9xxx's for a month or so before pushing through 10k...  

The sooner we go parabolic, the lower the ultimate blow-off top will be..  Prolly good loooong term, but not exactly optimal for my short term retirement plans....

19  Economy / Speculation / Re: Billionaire wants to buy 25% of the bitcoin supply on: May 31, 2019, 01:53:16 PM
I think it comes down to how you define "available bitcoin supply" ...

if you define this as all 21 million BTC.. then.. nope, not gonna happen...
if you define this as all BTC currently mined.. then again, nope...

if you define this as "total sum of all BTC currently on exchanges" .. then.. well.. a consortium of billionaires could theoretically have the ready funds to snatch that up...  I highly doubt there are more than a million BTC on exchanges at any one time.  The majority of coins being either not yet mined, lost, or in the hands of HODLers.

Same thing if you change the definition to coins available on various OTC platforms...

OR.. this could be a total marketing piece and they are just talking crap.



20  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 29, 2019, 04:45:23 PM
bitcoin to 50k in 2019
anyone against that?

Screw it, I'll open myself up to some haters: I just offloaded 50% of my portfolio. Can't shake what r0ach has been saying recently, he makes a lot of sense when it comes to manipulation. The rapid increase over the last few weeks just doesn't feel right. It's too fast and money (whatever you feel that may be) just isn't supposed to be this easy.

I think just below $2500 will be the bottom personally.  and it will happen arround oct / nov 2019

This looks like an elliotwave phase B bear rally, I fully expect people to call me out as usual.  But I will, and have put my money where my mouth is Smiley

I really don't care what JJG has to say on the matter or any other person.  im happy to be quoted in November.  


I seem to recall you betting down, previously, while bitcoin prices were going up.  

Difficult to lose money in a bull market, but some peeps manage to achieve such... including jonoiv.  This time is different?  hahahahahaaha

Good luck.....  

NOT.     Roll Eyes Roll Eyes   Tongue

OMG... JayJuanGee, are you OK?  I only see like 4 lines in your post above... Smiley

Umm.. in all seriousness, "elliotwave phase B bear rally" .. for those of us who aren't in the know.. is that good or bad long term? Sounds a lot like mystical mumbo-jumbo to me....
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