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1  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 30, 2021, 08:44:17 PM
No really, why you keep telling me what I should do? Am I telling you whom to merit? I will merit whoever I want. Period.

Of course you have free will, it’s just you’re feeding me with a lot more info about the group - that I previously thought possible.


And remember I told you to go and jerk off? Did you do it?  

No. But I often jerk off, it’s good for the prostate.


P.S. I dunno if you're blind or retarded (or most likely both) but here it is:



You're too dumb and stubborn to admit you were wrong, you'll just keep denying it.  Cool

Big ooopppsss you brazen lying cunt. This is not a link, it’s a screenshot - only you know from where.

Just checked PlanB’s tweet’s all the way to June 20. He has two tweets on that day, and your screenshot is not one of them.
Adjacent on the 21st he has a poll, and on the 19th a “death cross” tweet.

Anyone can check for himself. I can’t be bothered with your cunt. Fucking pussy.
Jezus Christ
https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1406582327686410242
2  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 18, 2021, 04:05:54 PM
Largest Grayscale unlocking is today. Second largest comes the day after tomorrow. A few more days of this relentless ball grating, guys. We're not all titanium trained Bawbs, but I'm sure we can all manage. Chin up!

As far as I know this is related to the internal, i.e. secondary Grayscale market. Grayscale is selling to the spot market only up to 2% yearly for the fees.

Yep, I don't uderstand the fear with this. If the sell the premium goes further negative, so what. Hell, some of the dollars from those sales may go back into BTC, and if the were playing the premium maybe they have shorts to close at the same time.

I'm not saying its bullish, especially with market sentiment right now, but it certainly isn't some kind of massive bearish event.
The more negative the premium becomes, the more interesting it becomes to arbitrage the price difference by buying GBTC and selling BTC spot on exchanges.  This thus gives a sell pressure on the normal BTC market.
Of course, there are some uncertainties in this play (when does GBTC change into an ETF with lower fees and the ability to convert GBTC back into actual BTC etc.), but the more negative it goes, the more reasonable the risk/reward becomes.  Right now you lose 2% each year you hold GBTC (in fees, not taking into account whatever the premium does).
3  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 16, 2021, 04:14:10 PM
Beanie Baby Bitcoin going full tulips in the coming 18 months. Anybody still hodling or did you take Billy’s advice & dump those bags? The only use for your digital tokens is pedophile material & drugs online. Don’t get left holding your bags. Bitcoin going to $0.

weeeeeee

Is that you jonoiv?
Smells like lambchops.
4  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 15, 2021, 12:19:58 AM
... you're not actually refuting anything Hal talked about, all you are doing is stating he is wrong, on a specific point that's been pulled out of context from a different argument, without backing up that claim.

... and he's actually not that far off for a rough order-of-magnitude estimate, the total float of all the monetary goods in the world, includes fiat M0-M3, gold/silver acting as money-equivalent, real-estate, bonds and other financial assets that are presently being 'monetised', used as stores-of-value, (since fiat money is being inflated) would be quite close to the total worldwide household wealth ... this is the addressable market for a liquid global reserve money

I already gave my argument.  I think it is a non sequitur that the value of money should equal the total amount of wealth in the world.  I tried making an analogy with the measuring in thumbs thing (it might not be the most elegant of analogies), see below:

It is not because something is being expressed in a unit, that that unit needs to expand to whatever is being measured.  For example, let's say I measure the length of my furniture by comparing to the length of my thumb.  Why would there then need to be as many of my thumbs as there is furniture in the world?  If that sounds strange or weird, that is because it is weird and nonsensical.
Money is just an asset class on its own, which takes up a certain portion of total wealth in the world.

I don't how else I can or should make my argument.
What is your point?  Do you think the value of money should equal the total amount of wealth in the world?  Why?

No, it wasn't a horrible estimate.  I would guess it is probably off by 1 order of magnitude.  Yes I suspect bitcoin will absorb a lot of the value in gold, fiat, bonds, and to a much lesser degree housing and stocks.  But I don't see why it would need to be as large as all real-estate, companies, commodities, bonds etc. put together.  

I will try to leave it at that.  I know I have a tendency to become a bit pedantic and argumentative, and I don't want to hijack the thread.
5  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 14, 2021, 09:35:20 PM
Just don't forget these words by Hal and you all will be good.

"With 20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million."
Hal was a smart guy, but he arrived at that number through faulty economic reasoning.

Well no economics was involved.. he just did the math and it's correct.
He literally said he thought the total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all the wealth in the world.  
Which is nonsense.  It is not because something is being expressed in a unit, that that unit needs to expand to whatever is being measured.  For example, let's say I measure the length of my furniture by comparing to the length of my thumb.  Why would there then need to be as many of my thumbs as there is furniture in the world?  If that sounds strange or weird, that is because it is weird and nonsensical.
Money is just an asset class on its own, which takes up a certain portion of total wealth in the world.

sauce : https://twitter.com/DrBitcoinMD?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1165004233663496197%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cryptopolitan.com%2Fhal-finney-bitcoin-price-prediction-10-m%2F

I like bullish BTC price predictions as much as the next guy, but if we just switch off our critical thinking whenever somebody says something nice about bitcoin, we are more of a religion or cult than anything else.  Which is not needed imo, as the realistic scenario for bitcoin holds plenty of upside and promise.

Well he didn’t say it will happen but he stated it as “an amusing thought experiment”. On other hand if that happens and Bitcoin becomes the standard global currency in the world then measuring bitcoin against dollar will be as useless as it’s today… 1 BTC = 1 BTC

Anyway yes it might be insane but not when you take it as an amusing thought experiment.

As an amusing thought experiment, imagine that Bitcoin is successful and becomes the dominant payment system in use throughout the world.  Then the total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all the wealth in the world. Current estimates of total worldwide household wealth that I have found range from $100 trillion to $300 trillion. With 20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million.

... you've pulled the piece of Hal's comment out of context. The full comment was about the asymmetric upside bet. To estimate the asymmetry he needed a ballpark figure for an upside value of btc, at the time it was worthless, so to get an order of magnitude estimate Hal used total global wealth which for a ballpark order of magnitude estimate is fine.

... then he compared the upside value potential of bitcoin with the odds of bitcoin achieving monetary dominance, which he then estimated only needed to be less than 100 million to 1 for to make sense to acquire/hodl some bitcoin, which at the time were worthless remember. He was resoundingly right and the statement still stands, the asymmetric bet was worth it.

Edit; relevant portion of Hal's comment

Quote
One immediate problem with any new currency is how to value it. Even
ignoring the practical problem that virtually no one will accept it
at first, there is still a difficulty in coming up with a reasonable
argument in favor of a particular non-zero value for the coins.

As an amusing thought experiment, imagine that Bitcoin is successful and
becomes the dominant payment system in use throughout the world.  Then the
total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all
the wealth in the world. Current estimates of total worldwide household
wealth that I have found range from $100 trillion to $300 trillion. With
20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million.

So the possibility of generating coins today with a few cents of compute
time may be quite a good bet, with a payoff of something like 100 million
to 1! Even if the odds of Bitcoin succeeding to this degree are slim,
are they really 100 million to one against? Something to think about...

Hal
His broader point about game theory was spot on, but I don't think I pulled his reasoning for arriving at the 10 million usd number out of context at all.  He clearly says  "if BTC becomes dominant, then it should equal the value of all the wealth in the world".
Which is faulty logic.  I don't like pointing this out as Hal seemed to be a very likeable and smart person, and given his early involvement deserves to be seen as a hero of sorts.  But people throw this number around as if it was some magic truth predicted by the prophet, and it's just wrong.
6  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 14, 2021, 02:08:02 PM
Just don't forget these words by Hal and you all will be good.

"With 20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million."
Hal was a smart guy, but he arrived at that number through faulty economic reasoning.

Well no economics was involved.. he just did the math and it's correct.
He literally said he thought the total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all the wealth in the world.  
Which is nonsense.  It is not because something is being expressed in a unit, that that unit needs to expand to whatever is being measured.  For example, let's say I measure the length of my furniture by comparing to the length of my thumb.  Why would there then need to be as many of my thumbs as there is furniture in the world?  If that sounds strange or weird, that is because it is weird and nonsensical.
Money is just an asset class on its own, which takes up a certain portion of total wealth in the world.

sauce : https://twitter.com/DrBitcoinMD?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1165004233663496197%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cryptopolitan.com%2Fhal-finney-bitcoin-price-prediction-10-m%2F

I like bullish BTC price predictions as much as the next guy, but if we just switch off our critical thinking whenever somebody says something nice about bitcoin, we are more of a religion or cult than anything else.  Which is not needed imo, as the realistic scenario for bitcoin holds plenty of upside and promise.
7  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 14, 2021, 09:28:00 AM
Just don't forget these words by Hal and you all will be good.

"With 20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million."
Hal was a smart guy, but he arrived at that number through faulty economic reasoning.
Then I would rather believe his faulty economic reasoning. Cheesy
You prefer snorting hopium over truth?  To each his own I guess  Wink .

Of course it seems inevitable that if bitcoin remains relevant (which most of us here strongly believe), and the us dollar is still a thing, that purely due to inflation it will reach a 10 million usd/btc price.  It just won't be dollars with the purchasing price of those in 2009 when Hal made the prediction.
8  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 14, 2021, 09:02:01 AM
Just don't forget these words by Hal and you all will be good.

"With 20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million."
Hal was a smart guy, but he arrived at that number through faulty economic reasoning.
9  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 26, 2021, 11:53:39 AM
I've been following the actions of this whale for several years. He is a legend, making $100-200mil by leverage trading on BFX and other derivate exchanges. Since he is well known to the owners of exchanges, he can't openly manipulate the market. My observations show that he is working alone and he is a fair player. In that sense his shorts can't harm the price. Also, he was not always right. It's just that his successful trades are more important than the unsuccessful ones. For example, after 12 March 2020, when the price recovered to 6K, he was confident there will be a pull back to 3K. He failed miserably then, losing a big portion of his wealth. After that, he announced he is retiring. But clearly, he changed his mind recently, when he saw the 12+ consecutive red hours, repeating each Friday. He closed his shorts just before the price fell to 28K last week, fearing a strong rebound. He was right. Now he thinks the price will fall to 30K and is waiting with $800m+ shorts. I don't know what is the leverage, but by a pure speculation it is between 5x and 20x, probably 10x. I've noticed that he added his short positions after the price fell to 33K area yesterday, which clearly shows he is not involved in the regular dumps. Moreover, even if he dumps on BFX, it won't affect the price on the other exchanges. Nowadays Binance is forming the price and the huge volume there makes it harder for a single whale to manipulate the price. But there are other futures exchanges, so this is a valid possibility, of course. Especially, if we have a group of whales making coordinated dumps simultaneously on several exchanges.
How are you able to follow the actions of this person so closely, and determine his reasoning so clearly? Like for example you said he announced he was retiring? Is there a special feature on BFX for following certain whales?  Or are you just guessing it from certain price actions?
10  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 24, 2021, 11:46:29 PM
Another leg down is setting up right now. The bitcoin price won't be able to sustain itself above $35k for 10 consecutive days.

Every damn time, best reverse indicator ever. You should charge for this shit, bruh.

Observing $39,556.




... fuck Musk, who exactly did he speak with? All the NA miners? Can any of them verify these conversations?

... he's just full of shit and blow most of the time. In fact why doesn't he run for President? fucktard.

... he's gonna get spat out the back of Bitcoin faster than Mike Hearn, Roger Verr, Jihan Wu and anyone else who tries to coordinate centralised decision making regards mining, I guarantee it.
Seems to me like he is trying to take credit for trends that are underway anyway (increasing usage of green energy for mining).

Like, if the sun comes up tomorrow, you'll have me to thank for it.  You are welcome.  Now worship me.
11  Economy / Games and rounds / Re: A member LIST .. What do we speculate the price will be this summer JOIN IN on: May 19, 2021, 02:10:31 AM
$41800, reason: we went up a significant chunk pretty quickly, lots of new speculators coming in and getting a bit crazy.  BTC lost momentum, we need to correct for a bit here.  Might take some time to stabilize again before we are off to the races again.
12  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 20, 2021, 09:38:45 AM
Cool stuff.  Pretty visionary to start freezing material for genetic diversity in 1988 already.  Hopefully Hall will return to us as well (but then revived, not a clone of him).
13  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 19, 2021, 04:57:54 PM
Happy Trillion boys and girls ! Grin Cool
14  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 14, 2021, 08:17:30 PM
Sure people talk about altcoins as a way to generate bitcoins, but it surely does not seem like a sound strategy, unless you happen to be some kind of insider who is manipulating the shit.. which sure some of the altcoiners/shitcoiners do get involved in attempting to generate BTC in that way because they either have some kind of inside that they believe they will try to exploit or they believe that they are connected to some kind of inside... surely not an invest on fundamentals thesis, even if sometimes framed that way.

Did you get in on the ground floor of Howeycoin?

Spiffcoin is similar you must hit the buy button. Wink

https://spiffcoin.net/

With a name like that, it must be amazing, much wow !


The real question ... is Hobbes buying in?
The only permanent rule for Spiffcoin is: the rules will be changed all the time (one can argue in that regard it is actually very similar to many other altcoins).
15  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 14, 2021, 07:52:08 PM
Sure people talk about altcoins as a way to generate bitcoins, but it surely does not seem like a sound strategy, unless you happen to be some kind of insider who is manipulating the shit.. which sure some of the altcoiners/shitcoiners do get involved in attempting to generate BTC in that way because they either have some kind of inside that they believe they will try to exploit or they believe that they are connected to some kind of inside... surely not an invest on fundamentals thesis, even if sometimes framed that way.

Did you get in on the ground floor of Howeycoin?

Spiffcoin is similar you must hit the buy button. Wink

https://spiffcoin.net/

With a name like that, it must be amazing, much wow !
16  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 27, 2021, 06:13:22 PM
What's to stop GME from just issuing a billion new stock?
They should issue a bunch.
17  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 05, 2021, 11:01:20 PM
@JJG you are a man of many words, I'll drink to that.



This is gentlemen.
Make sure you don't pull a Russ Hanneman with that bottle and delete all your coins  Grin .
18  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 31, 2020, 01:44:33 PM
With shitbanks that will end up more ruined, if not, I don't understand the 16%

edit

Quote
This one is a JPMorgan number — their aggregate Money supply growth
https://twitter.com/asiahodl/status/1344537222091927553
Verified,shitbanks(JPM) Cheesy

Well that's comparing apples and oranges then.  If you are looking at supply growth, it certainly wasn't hundreds of % for BTC this year.
19  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 23, 2020, 11:29:43 PM
It connects to the security narrative.  1 to 2 dimensional thinkers can't see why POW is so damn efficient and such a GOOD use of energy, that will actually transform the entire power industry in 50 years.  But there is ZERO chance for a distributed system, much less a decentralized one without it.
Care to explain your reasoning why a system like POS can't work? (genuinely interested)
20  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 15, 2020, 01:29:55 AM

the painful truth
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