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September 26, 2020, 08:56:25 AM *
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1  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is it possible for Bitcoin to fall and become worthless? on: Today at 07:34:57 AM
It is theoretically possible, but if it does, it will not be a one-time collapse or bankruptcy. I think that everything will happen as in evolution - if some product appears that is more technically perfect and this product is able to meet the ideological and economic requirements of bitcoin fans, then it will gradually replace bitcoin. In the end, maybe bitcoin itself will develop so much and become so much better that it will cease to be like the bitcoin that we know now.
2  Economy / Speculation / Re: If market crashes, BTC will crash twice as hard. on: Today at 07:19:17 AM
This is true for highly liquid assets with huge capitalization such as oil, real estate, stocks, etc. It seems to me that niche/low-cap/unique markets react differently. Goods from these markets were initially bought for a long time, and most of the investors in these goods initially assume that the period before its sale may be 1-2 (or more) economic cycles. I have not heard that someone "urgently" sold a unique painting just to get into the cache (this happens in bankruptcies, but this is a different case).

Bankruptcies happen for the exact same reason. It's only a matter when the assets are liquidated.

In broad strokes, these assets act exactly the same. This boils down to economic rationality. It doesn't matter if you invested in fine art or real estate. When the economy crashes and your business fails or you lose your job, you may need to liquidate assets to pay your mortgage or rent, bills, etc. This is the part of the underlying drive towards cash during liquidity crises.

This idea that people who invest in stocks or real estate need cash, but people who invest in low-cap or niche markets don'tdoesn't really pan out for me.

In a sense, you are right, but still, I believe that the bitcoin market is very far from a rational market due to low capitalization, the presence of large players (whales), etc. Obviously, this is far from a "theoretical" rational market where we must always see the effective / fair price of an asset.

So...
And yet Bitcoin crashed much harder than stocks or real estate this past March. Makes you wonder......
yee, that time everything went like this (by the way, the market recovered faster than the stock market), but maybe next time everything will turn out differently.
3  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Why do people keep playing unlicensed, illegal slot machines? on: September 25, 2020, 08:12:49 PM
Sometimes an illegal service offers better conditions (including provably fair, etc.) while there are no disadvantages of a legal game such as taxes, isn't that obvious? I've heard that in some states in the US you have to pay tax on your winnings on every bet you win. Even if you made 100 bets, 20 won, 80 lost and you are in the red, you have to pay taxes for the "winnings". It is obviously more profitable to play in an illegal casino.
4  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Card counting in black jack on: September 25, 2020, 08:04:34 PM
Physical Gambling operators consider card counting a big threat to their business so they will try everything to eliminate that threat every players that comes along that is having a good success even if they are lucky that night is analyzed and if they have a continuous round of success chances are they will be ban.

Yes, I find it quite unfair. For example, a cafe cannot deny service to any specific people, since they will violate their public offer and lose in court. Casinos in this regard are in a privileged position and have such a right (denial of service) by law. I do not think this provision is fair. Math works the same for everyone and you have to serve everyone if you are not a private club.
5  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Card counting in black jack on: September 25, 2020, 12:33:48 PM
Even without reading the article, it was easy to guess that card counting in online casinos does not provide any advantage  Cheesy
Firstly, it is obvious that in an online casino the deck is shuffled after each hand and this does not require any effort/time.
Secondly, no project in the digital world can exist if it can be "counted" and beaten. Therefore, if the casino exists, then card counting when playing in it does not provide any advantage.

It's very likely too that bogus (AI) players can be salted into games or even a hand is played between hands by the gambler (ie a hand is played invisibly and those cards are discarded after play in the same manor as the cards being played by the gambler - that way even if you think you know what cards *might* be about to be played, the invisible hand(s) could potentially remove them)

Yes, such options are possible, but serious casinos are unlikely to do so. All these manipulations will be clearly visible if you take a large statistical sample. A casino caught on such manipulations will suffer big losses and most likely go bankrupt, therefore, if such things are done, then in new/small projects.
6  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: About Dice Games and Yolodice . Best strategy?? on: September 25, 2020, 10:52:07 AM
~

theres nothing to be curious if we always see that occur  to ours to other people  . 99 percent win is not a 100 percent win , theres that 1 percent chance that you will loose but 1 percent is verry small . they can be verry lucky in a way that they loose too often  .

 using 1 percent chance is more worst because the chance of you winning is verry tiny but if you got lucky you can win in a few rolls and you can win huge too for a small bet due to the high odds

It seems to me there is no point in talking about what is better and what is worse, since the result is always the same.
And winning a large amount of money on a bet with a large odds is also unrealistic, since your initial bet must be substantial. Maybe this is real if you guess two bets with a huge odds in a row and after the first win, bet all the won money. But the probability of such a gain is illusory.
7  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Card counting in black jack on: September 25, 2020, 10:44:05 AM
At the moment, this does not make any practical sense since the deck is shuffled long before the player (even the one who counted the cards completely) can gain an advantage.

I must say that the reason card counting has been scrapped from casinos is because it would otherwise put the player at an arguably greater advantage and thus giving them a higher winning chance.

Of course, this type of business will lead to casinos losing much more than they want as they're all about making money. SO asking for something like this is nothing more but futile.

To read more about how this is implemented in blackjack online casinos, click here. Happy reading

Even without reading the article, it was easy to guess that card counting in online casinos does not provide any advantage  Cheesy
Firstly, it is obvious that in an online casino the deck is shuffled after each hand and this does not require any effort/time.
Secondly, no project in the digital world can exist if it can be "counted" and beaten. Therefore, if the casino exists, then card counting when playing in it does not provide any advantage.
8  Economy / Speculation / Re: If market crashes, BTC will crash twice as hard. on: September 25, 2020, 10:11:05 AM
I agree with you in general, but why am I forced to sell? If we are talking about investors, then it is unlikely that they bought bitcoin on credit. And they all know about economic cycles and the fact that after fiat money becomes strong, there will inevitably be a period when it becomes weak and asset prices soar. The only ones who will sell at any price are miners, but their influence (if we take the total capitalization of bitcoin) is not very large and is gradually decreasing.

If that were true, asset prices would never drop.

Like you said, the market moves in cycles. At the end of a bullish cycle, this is what happens: profit taking (distribution) and selling because of anticipated lower prices. During trends, prices move in feedback cycles. Lower prices beget lower prices, as the pain of holding losing positions compounds and burnt investors capitulate. This is why downtrends often end with high volume capitulation events. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/capitulation.asp

Even if you don't feel forced to sell, others will because of the pain of holding or the need to liquidate for cash (this is an economic crisis we're discussing after all), or because they think they can buy back lower. This all produces increased supply on the market, which pushes prices down.

This is true for highly liquid assets with huge capitalization such as oil, real estate, stocks, etc. It seems to me that niche/low-cap/unique markets react differently. Goods from these markets were initially bought for a long time, and most of the investors in these goods initially assume that the period before its sale may be 1-2 (or more) economic cycles. I have not heard that someone "urgently" sold a unique painting just to get into the cache (this happens in bankruptcies, but this is a different case).
I think bitcoin is close in characteristics to niche/low capitalization markets therefore, here we are unlikely to see a repetition of the stories of the stock market or the real estate market.
9  Local / Бизнес / Кто-нибудь ведет бизнес на Ебэй? on: September 25, 2020, 09:23:06 AM
Интересует консультация - сам вопрос здесь
10  Local / Новички / Re: Раздача мерита нуждающимся/Есть задания l on: September 25, 2020, 09:21:32 AM
Нужна консультация на тему: Your listing was removed: VeRO Software Licensing Policy - письмо от Ebay
тот кто в теме понимает о чем речь.

По выполнению вы получаете 5 меритов

Интересует общение с опытным продавцом на ебэй (общедоступную информацию уже изучил самостоятельно).
Конкретно интересно вот что: мой товар (вещь в одной из игр) был удален, но множество подобных лотов как было в листингах так и есть, соответственно вопрос: как надо размещать объявления по этому направлению чтобы не попадать на делистинг.

Update: Задача снимается решение найдено.
11  Economy / Speculation / Re: Who sets the bitcoin price? on: September 24, 2020, 05:24:53 PM
Thoughts about whales/organizations do have a solid foundation.
Obviously, large capital holders (both in bitcoin and in dollars and in mining capacities) can influence the market very strongly. Perhaps because of this, someone makes the erroneous conclusion that whales "own" the market.
The market does not belong to the whales but they often play with the price of bitcoin. Whales have the ability to improvise bitcoin price because they have a lot of capital. Supply and demand are thing that forever affect the price of bitcoin and it is trader who do.

I agree that exchange can manipulate bitcoin price within a certain range and we often hear that they also have fake volume and this is purely for the benefit of the organization itself.

It does not belong to them 100%, but how much does it belong to them? 95%? 60%? I don't know, but sometimes the figure of 95% seems real to me. Especially when I read about miners/exchanges and other crypt infrastructure and see how everything is tightly integrated with each other, from hardware manufacturers and miners to exchanges.
12  Economy / Speculation / Re: If market crashes, BTC will crash twice as hard. on: September 24, 2020, 05:15:20 PM
A unique diamond/painting or something like that has little liquidity (they are difficult to sell) even when the economy is growing, but this does not mean that during a crisis they lose their value.

Sure it does. An economic crisis may not change the price you paid or the value you put on a diamond or a painting, but it will make them harder to sell. So if you really want to sell during a crisis, you'll probably have to sell cheaper than you otherwise would have.

I agree with you in general, but why am I forced to sell? If we are talking about investors, then it is unlikely that they bought bitcoin on credit. And they all know about economic cycles and the fact that after fiat money becomes strong, there will inevitably be a period when it becomes weak and asset prices soar. The only ones who will sell at any price are miners, but their influence (if we take the total capitalization of bitcoin) is not very large and is gradually decreasing.
13  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Card counting in black jack on: September 24, 2020, 05:05:50 PM
Do you know such people (who won a lot of money from the casino not just because of luck, but regularly based on their skill)? I would like to know about them in more detail because there are many legends and tales about such masters, but there is very little reliable information, so I doubt that they really exist/existed.
Here's one for you.
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2012/04/the-man-who-broke-atlantic-city/308900/
Didn't really read it thoroughly, but the article doesn't seem to be lying with the fact that he beat those casinos with pure skill since the first casino he visited already had security cams analyzing his every movement to prevent any type of cheating. Card counting may be done in the mind, but it still needs obvious eye movement as well as some kind of pattern or rhythm that may be helpful to you in remembering (imo that is). That, or you can just have a perfect memory, which is almost impossible.

Although it seems like the biggest factor here was removing the edge for the house, and instead, giving it to the player. I've read some other articles, and they've also detailed about them winning on casinos not only based on skill, but also by negotiating with them on discounts and the like, they then start to break the bank of the casinos.

Thanks for the link to the article, I read it with interest. And I was very surprised because the events of almost modern times are described - the beginning of the 2000s - 2010s. I assumed that by this time the card counters had no chance to win something because of the measures that the casinos had thought up when they were fighting against similar players back in the 60s and 70s.
14  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: About Dice Games and Yolodice . Best strategy?? on: September 24, 2020, 04:56:11 PM
The result will be the same, do not waste time (if you are doing this not for fun, but for the sake of winning).
I had a different experience and I chose even higher chances of winning - 99%. If I remember correctly, the bet was 100 satoshi, after the first defeat I increased the bet 100 times - 10,000 satoshi (to return the lost).It seems that the chance of losing both bets in a row is small, but on a large number of bets (I set the automatic game), the loss inevitably came.
The most curios thing is that people always say: I bet with 99% chance of win and still lose once, twice or more in dice. What about to use 1% win of chance and bet this way? Less loss but chance of higher win if you increase bet on for example on every 30th bet.
~

I've tried such strategies as well. In this case, the deposit is reduced according to a different algorithm, we can say that we see an endless sequence of steps: first a large group of steps down (we are talking about the amount of money on the deposit), then one big up, then again a large group of steps down, then one big up, etc. On average, the sum "height" of groups of small steps is slightly higher than the height of the step up, so the deposit gradually touches zero.
15  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Poker Worthwhile freerolls and low stakes high prize on: September 24, 2020, 04:44:17 PM
the problem is that if the tournament goes well, it means that you have to spend 5-7 hours at the computer.

Depending on which tournament, anything with over 2k registrants and standard blinds minutes should be around 7 hours but if you managed to hold for over 5 hours then you should be getting quite top spot with high prize money so its kinda worth it

If we are talking about tournaments with a serious buy-in, then of course, in this case, it is profitable to play until the very end. I mean free tournaments with prizes like tickets to the same tournaments but with serious prizes for example. In the past, I often played these on PS and sometimes even won real money, but now there is simply no time for that. My record is second place in a tournament of 16,000 players.
16  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Poker Worthwhile freerolls and low stakes high prize on: September 20, 2020, 09:00:05 AM
Thanks for the interesting topic. Unfortunately, I don't have time for such entertainment right now) Before, I often played freerolls and sometimes won good prizes, the problem is that if the tournament goes well, it means that you have to spend 5-7 hours at the computer.
17  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: About Dice Games and Yolodice . Best strategy?? on: September 20, 2020, 08:41:13 AM
Hello,

I was playing Yolodice today, and I was trying to figure out an strategy to have the maximum profit and lowest risk possible.

There are some things you can control in the game:

-Bet Amount
-Chance to win


I set the chance to 90% and the bet amount to 1/2 my stash. Then I started rolling. I made more than 100 rolls lol

I made a 200% profit in 5 minutes. However, I made 2 bad bets, and lost almost all. (Terrible experience)
Then I was able to recover my previous profit with the same strategy... and then made a few bad bets and lost almost all again.

I sent some more money to recover my lost profit. I am far from it now, but I was thinking about those 2 parameters we can set.

Do you think a 1/2 stash bet is too high? Maybe something like 1/4 or 1/5 is safer, but the reward is low as well. What do you think about chance? Should I keep it higher than 90, or try something lower?

The result will be the same, do not waste time (if you are doing this not for fun, but for the sake of winning).
I had a different experience and I chose even higher chances of winning - 99%. If I remember correctly, the bet was 100 satoshi, after the first defeat I increased the bet 100 times - 10,000 satoshi (to return the lost).It seems that the chance of losing both bets in a row is small, but on a large number of bets (I set the automatic game), the loss inevitably came.
18  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Card counting in black jack on: September 20, 2020, 08:32:33 AM
There is only one way if  this will work on you, try experimenting with small amount. But casinos will not ban card counting if that isn't effective and doesn't affect or changes the possibility of winning and losing of a player. They banned it because there are actual people who are good at it and they are making tons of money so this seem to work for some who really knows how to count cards.

Do you know such people (who won a lot of money from the casino not just because of luck, but regularly based on their skill)? I would like to know about them in more detail because there are many legends and tales about such masters, but there is very little reliable information, so I doubt that they really exist/existed.
19  Economy / Speculation / Re: Who sets the bitcoin price? on: September 20, 2020, 08:04:11 AM
It seems that this question is bothering some users from time to time. If you are focused on traditional finances it's hard to be convinced that Bitcoin is independent currency that is not tied to any financial authority, central bank or similar. Some even think that whales control Bitcoin fully including determing of price. Some also believe that some individuals or organisation are standing behind Bitcoin and influence the price.
For nothing of that there is no proof so Bitcoin price is defined by market, by demand and supply ratio.

Thoughts about whales/organizations do have a solid foundation.
Obviously, large capital holders (both in bitcoin and in dollars and in mining capacities) can influence the market very strongly. Perhaps because of this, someone makes the erroneous conclusion that whales "own" the market.
As for organizations (exchanges), there are similarly certain grounds for such thoughts: now most of the bitcoin trading takes place there and the price of bitcoin is determined there. If we take into account the factor of fake volumes, then we must admit that the exchanges have great opportunities to manipulate (within certain limits) the price of bitcoin.
20  Economy / Speculation / Re: If market crashes, BTC will crash twice as hard. on: September 20, 2020, 07:48:12 AM
There are many subtle points here. To say that all assets fell would be wrong. Some asset fell strongly, some asset fell less strongly, which means that one of the assets rose relative to the other, right?

When Bitcoin crashes, what do you expect to happen to a low cap shitcoin? It will consistently crash harder than BTC. The same exact principle applies here.

Everything else equal, BTC will always crash harder than stock indices or gold, which are much more liquid markets, and which have much thicker bid sides.

It's not about fundamentals. It's not about "Bitcoin was made for this situation" or any nonsense like that. It's all about liquidity. In a liquidity crisis and flight to cash, which markets have the liquidity to absorb a big dump? That is what matters.

I understand the logic of your reasoning. But why do you think that the liquidity of an asset so strongly affects the degree of its depreciation during a crisis? A unique diamond/painting or something like that has little liquidity (they are difficult to sell) even when the economy is growing, but this does not mean that during a crisis they lose their value. As it seems to me, on the contrary, they grow in price as they guarantee the safety of at least part of the capital invested in them. Why should it be different with bitcoin?
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