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921  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UEFA Champions League 2023/24 Season on: January 13, 2024, 06:04:28 PM
I think the final match will be Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich. City is indeed very strong in the Champions League and they are also the defending champions. De Bruyne's injury had a big impact on City's game and we know last season they won the treble with a big role from KDB and Haaland. So I favor Madrid vs Munich which will be the final match. I put City in third place and Barcelona in fourth place. I think everyone should not forget Barcelona because they are also one of the strong teams in the Champions League even though their current performance does not make them one of the favorites to win this season.

I don’t think that the likelihood of such a final is high - firstly, the teams can meet at earlier stages of the tournament, and secondly, they are not favorites. Take a look at the bookmakers' odds on who will reach the final:

Manchester City 1.96

Fc Bayern Munich 2.58

Real Madrid 3.19

Arsenal 3.68

Now the quotes are a little distorted because City have the easiest opponent of all possible and we can say that City are already in the quarter finals, but in any case they are the favorites of the tournament and in order for us to see the final without them, someone has to knock them out. I would like to believe that someone will succeed.
922  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: La Liga (Spanish League) Prediction Thread 2023/24 on: January 13, 2024, 05:48:33 PM
I am looking forward to the next El Clasico. Real Madrid is stronger than last year, and it will be more challenging for Xavi and his squad. The two clubs are extra motivated for the rivalry, and it is for the Super Cup championship. They will without a doubt give all that to bring home the championship.

The injury of Raphinha is a significant issue for Barcelona and Xavi will make essential changes. The fans are also mused on how Lamine Yamal will be used in the approaching match. The young kid showed his exceptional talent and scored in their victory over Osasuna.

At the moment, bookmaker quotes for the game are as follows:

2.21 - 3.68 - 2.88

In my opinion, this is the easiest bet on Real Madrid. Yes, the teams are playing with suboptimal lineups, yes, this is a cup and the importance of the game is in question (although there is a step to the title and motivation should be maximum), but it seems to me that Real should be the favorite with odds of about 1.8-1.9 maximum. Maybe the status of the game distorts the odds or people are betting on Barcelona for old times' sake and bookmakers are forced to take this into account?
923  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Germany League - Bundesliga Prediction Thread on: January 13, 2024, 05:33:16 PM
Bayer still won (in the 4th added minute), but it seems that Xabi has not yet figured out how to replace Boniface. Just look at the statistics:

Shots - 2:25
Shots on target - 0:6
Corners - 0:12

This is complete dominance (+ 66% ball possession), but the implementation of the advantage is extremely weak. In the next round, Bayer is playing away at Leipzig and I think there will be fewer opportunities to score there, and the fact that even Eintracht was able to win there today does not mean that Bayer will be able to repeat this.

Leipzig lost in their home but if you analyse the statistics like you did above, you will see that Leipzig totally dominated the game with 64% dominance, 31 shots including 8 on target versus only 5 shots including one on target for Frankfurt. For the corners, we are talking about 15 for Leipzig and 8 for Frankfurt.
As you see this doesn't mean big things when the opponent with worst statistics, could use a good opportunity to score while the other team which dominated the game just continue to miss it.
Next game between Leipzig - Bayer Leverkusen will be close and if you look to the statistics, you will see clearly that Leipzig are favourite so far, even though the odds are close.
The results until now kept Bayer Leverkusen in top followed by Bayern Munich and the gap is getting wider with Leipzig until we see if Stuttgart could win, most likely, against M'Gladbach tomorrow.

Such a distortion in statistics (and the victory of a team that is statistically worse) is a normal thing if one team plays bus and catches its chances on contact attacks. I don’t think that in the Leipzig - Bayer game anyone will play the bus, so the total number of chances is no less important than their conversion. Bayer has obvious problems with conversion.
Now about the odds:

2.43 - 3.48 - 2.69

Maybe the bookmakers took into account all the factors and Leipzig is a fair favorite, but for me it looks unfair. What kind of nonsense is this - one team collected 45 points out of 51, and the other only 33, and the goal difference is +35 versus +20, but the statistically weaker team is the favorite. I understand that Bayer's phenomenal series cannot be endless, but these quotes are unfair.
924  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🌍⚽Sportsbet.io AFCON 2024 prediction pool discussion thread on: January 13, 2024, 05:14:36 PM
It seems like nothing shocking, just normal safety requirements? As you know, these lasers can damage the retina of the eye even from such a distance, there are many videos on YouTube where the beam of such lasers bursts balloons lined up in a row.
I wonder if vuvuzelas will be banned? It seems that if you look at the map, Cote Divoire is located far from South Africa, but maybe these things are also popular there.

It's a good development from the AFCON committee but I'm still waiting for the CAF to take the same action against lasers in our league games.

vuvuzelas was banned after the 2010 worldcup.

Yep, I remember this, but Blatter then (if I’m not mistaken, this swindler was still in business) put it in the sense that “vuvuzelas should stay in Africa.” Therefore, I don’t remember that they were banned everywhere, but if this is already the case, then I’m glad.

Good news everybody Smiley

Should be at least 20 of this season. Already collected money from 18, 2 I am quite sure it is just a matter of hours and then I have some more stranglers from my Sportsbet chat that are interested to join.

I will still allow people to join during first GW, with the start of GW2 pool will be officially closed. Detailed rewards will be written out at that moment. It will be similar spread as in my La Liga and Serie A pools (percentage wise).

Anyway it all starts today so make your picks and good luck, not that you need it.

bloody lucky bastards every one of you


20 participants are already in the pool, super! I was sure that we would collect the required amount.

Is anyone surprised by the bookmakers' odds on BTTS? Mostly they are seriously higher than 2 - in some cases almost close to 3. If you make a money bet, then such cases always attract me.
925  Local / Майнеры / Re: Глобальные новости крипто-майнинга on: January 13, 2024, 04:53:22 PM
про разгоны всякие вот подумалось. я, наверное, старомодный, но в крипте, когда захожу в любой проект, у меня первая задача вывести депо. а вот потом уже можно извращаться по полной.
и я буду лить в стакан, пока не отобью фермы, выводить дропы по текущему, продавать нфт по рынку и тыды. пока не отобью первоначалку. сейчас проще намного, конечно. уже со всех сторон всё отбито и можно ради красивых цифирок в 50-100% прибыли рискнуть и просрать тысчонку другую уев, вряд ли больше.

Аналогично (и не только в крипте кстати). Для меня есть деньги "свои" и "игровые". Когда я свои вернул, задача-минимум выполнена, а к игровым у меня отношение легкое - пока не вывел это все фантики, а не деньги. Поэтому распоряжаюсь ими легко и нет психологического давления которое бы мешало рисковать в тех случаях когда рисковать стоит.
926  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Germany League - Bundesliga Prediction Thread on: January 13, 2024, 04:48:55 PM
Bayer still won (in the 4th added minute), but it seems that Xabi has not yet figured out how to replace Boniface. Just look at the statistics:

Shots - 2:25
Shots on target - 0:6
Corners - 0:12

This is complete dominance (+ 66% ball possession), but the implementation of the advantage is extremely weak. In the next round, Bayer is playing away at Leipzig and I think there will be fewer opportunities to score there, and the fact that even Eintracht was able to win there today does not mean that Bayer will be able to repeat this.
927  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ Sportsbet.io ⚽ Spanish La Liga ⚽ Football Pool Discussion Thread 2023/2024 on: January 13, 2024, 04:32:21 PM
Congratulations to everyone for winning zero points in Superberu today  Grin
Sevilla team and all players should be ashamed for this year performance!
Another loss at home against Alaves, just when I expected they will somehow manage to win.

1 point to 18th place  Grin
Taking into account the fact that Cadiz and Celta have quite ordinary opponents, Seville may find themselves in the relegation zone today (more precisely, tomorrow since Cadiz plays tomorrow). Not a bad way for the reigning Europa League champions  Roll Eyes


By the way, will this short tour be considered completed tomorrow or when all the games are played?
928  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Italian League Prediction Thread (Serie A) on: January 13, 2024, 04:19:44 PM
The match was over and Napoli won with a small score. We could say this match was quite dramatic because Napoli's 2 goals were scored at the end of the first and second half. Even though Napoli won, I'm not satisfied with their performance, they only managed to win by a small margin even when facing a team that's at the bottom of the Serie A standings.

With the results obtained by Napoli today, they're currently in 6th place in the standings. They're not the only team that has performed poorly this season, because we still have Lazio & AS Roma below them.

Yes, this victory is rather an argument in favor of continuing to doubt Napoli. It is noteworthy that the game ended as if Napoli were a completely average Serie A team: Salernitana had scored 16 goals in 19 games before this game (almost one goal per game on average) and conceded 38 goals (exactly two goals per game on average). It turns out that Napoli conceded a little more than they should have (for an average team from Serie A lol) and scored exactly as much as they should. 3 points is better than another loss, but I would call this victory painful.
929  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UEFA Europa League 2023/24 Season on: January 13, 2024, 04:12:39 PM
From the bookmakers' point of view, Roma's odds are as follows:

Liverpool 3.19

Bayer 04 Leverkusen 6.37

Ac Milan 10.78

Brighton And Hove Albion 12.74

West Ham United 12.74

As Roma 16.66

In my opinion, it’s strange that they are rated worse than West Ham or Brighton. However, the favorites' chances are also not so great - Liverpool have about 30% and Bayer 15%. Let's look at what pairings we get in the 1/8 - this can greatly change the teams' chances, for example, if Liverpool gets Milan as opponents, and Roma gets Rangers (as I understand this pairing is possible), then the quotes will become more even.

I agree with you on that definitely. I was also surprised very much to see Roma being shown as less favourite than those 2 teams. I just say why? Above all else we shouldn't forget Roma's reaching the final round of the Europa League last season. They fought well against Sevilla too even though they couldn't become champions.

Now they still look strong in the Europa League. They have a tough draw on paper in this round maybe but they should be able to eliminate Feyenoord anyway and move on.

I think they can push West Ham and Brighton both out of the competition too and even Milan also. Therefore I would rather put Roma right behind Leverkusen at worst when it comes to odds.

There may be such an imbalance in the odds due to the fact that bookmakers take into account that West Ham and Brighton are already in the 1/8 finals, and to get there, Roma needs to play a knockout match with Feyenoord. Feyenoord is not the easiest opponent, but still I see Roma as the favorite in this pair (most likely Mourinho will simply strangle this bright attacking team with his rational defensive game haha), let's see how the odds change after these qualifying games (how this whole multi-level system infuriates me).
930  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Germany League - Bundesliga Prediction Thread on: January 13, 2024, 04:04:22 PM
Augsburg  vs  Leverkusen

Leverkusen's players are fighting hard today against Augsburg. Neither team could score in 40 minutes. However, Leverkusen's players are trying to dominate the match. Maybe in the second half they will increase the pace of attack.

After 40 minutes, Leverkusen had 75% of the ball and had 6 shots on goal. Despite several strong attacks, Augsburg's players and goalkeepers parried every attack. Augsburg's players will probably be happy with the draw. However, if they want to keep the top spot in the points table, the Leverkusen team must gain 3 points.

It's already the 70th minute of the match and the score is still 0-0. It will be interesting to see the statistics on expected goals after the game. It feels like even Augsburg “earned” one goal, and Bayer at least two. I hope that in the remaining 20 minutes Bayer can tip the scales in their favor, I would really like them to tease Bayern with their leadership for as long as possible  Grin
931  Local / Юристы / Re: Судебная практика по криптовалютам on: January 13, 2024, 03:20:27 PM

При всем уважении, но вряд ли здесь кто-то прям будет зачитываться целой диссертацией (особенно вот этим музыкальным казенным языком пример которого в новости ниже), вы бы выжимку какую-то сделали что ли. Там же есть какие-то итоги/выводы? Ознакомиться с ними было бы интересно а может быть даже полезно.
Выводы там, во основном, либо спорные, либо пустые. Интересен сам дискурс: упоминания судебных решений, их оценка, отсылки к другим работам по смежным темам. В общем, по мелочи можно очень много всякого занимательного нахватать. А итоги нет смысла перепечатывать. Они там в заключении есть, а во введении даже в ещё более сжатом виде: как тезисы, выносимые на защиту.

Но, повторюсь, в плане итогов диссертация, пожалуй, бессмсленная. Её основная ценность, на мой взгляд, - в собранном материале. В этом смысле работа достойна внимания. Однако таких интересных частностей там слишком много: выжимку я сделать не возьмусь.

Ну вот мне сразу так подумалось. У нас же право не прецедентное так что смысла смотреть, что было где-то, нет, так как в новом случае все может быть ровно наоборот. Я подборочку разной уголовщины смотрю в неокторых ТГ каналах и там все это хорошо видно: для людей определенной категории закон работает так, а для других иначе  Grin Да и вообще если честно рассуждения о законе в папуасиях это так... теоретический треп, не более.
932  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Germany League - Bundesliga Prediction Thread on: January 12, 2024, 10:05:50 PM
Munchen won convincingly with 3 goals without reply, contributed by Musiala and Kane. It was predictable from the start that Munchen would easily win this match.
Munchen and Leverkusen are only 1 point apart on the standings. After this there will be a Leverkusen vs Augsburg match. Can Augsburg provide resistance to the leaders of the standings?
Because if Leverkusen can be held to a draw then Munchen's opportunity to overtake points is very wide open. However, on the other hand, Leverkusen will definitely try to maintain their record of never losing this season.

I predicted the score 3-0 (and I’m very glad that I guessed right) but in the middle of the second half Hoffenheim had great chances to score a goal. But in the end, Musiala scored the second goal and the game essentially ended. According to statistics, yes, complete dominance of Bayern and most likely even if Kramaric had converted his chance, Bayern would have been able to score more, but in fact this game was not easy for the hosts.
933  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UEFA Europa League 2023/24 Season on: January 12, 2024, 05:46:27 PM
I think, AS Roma only has a chance to get to the final match but not for the title and therefore, I think AS Roma is not a candidate to win a trophy in the Europa League this season. It's different from last season, although in fact in the semifinal match last season AS Roma managed to beat Bayer Leverkusen but yes, this season everything has changed. Because yes, if we consider the quality of Bayer Leverkusen and AS Roma this season, I think it is clear that Bayer Leverkusen is still better than AS Roma. Therefore, even though AS Roma has a chance, but AS Roma is not among the title candidate teams this season because yes, AS Roma is still not strong enough and still not consistent enough to win the Europa League trophy.

From the bookmakers' point of view, Roma's odds are as follows:

Liverpool 3.19

Bayer 04 Leverkusen 6.37

Ac Milan 10.78

Brighton And Hove Albion 12.74

West Ham United 12.74

As Roma 16.66

In my opinion, it’s strange that they are rated worse than West Ham or Brighton. However, the favorites' chances are also not so great - Liverpool have about 30% and Bayer 15%. Let's look at what pairings we get in the 1/8 - this can greatly change the teams' chances, for example, if Liverpool gets Milan as opponents, and Roma gets Rangers (as I understand this pairing is possible), then the quotes will become more even.
934  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Germany League - Bundesliga Prediction Thread on: January 12, 2024, 05:34:08 PM
Wow, great news (for some reason this passed me by). It’s not that I follow this player very much, but I think now a lot of people (including specialists) will closely monitor how Sancho will play. If he proves himself to be an effective high-level player, that would be best answer to ETH, and such an answer could well sway United management to decide to sack ETH. For Sancho, everything is going as well as possible - Dortmund can be said to be in the ass, and if thanks to him (or just by coincidence) they improve their game, then it will be in Sancho's favor.
In fact, rumors about Sancho have been circulating in the last few weeks and before the winter season opened, Juventus were first interested in a loan transfer for Sancho. But unfortunately there was no clear news from Juventus and suddenly Dortmund entered the hunt for Sancho and yes, he finally returned home. No one expected Sancho to decide quickly but clearly this is better than not doing the job at all.
~

This can hardly be called a full-fledged return - in fact, this is a short-term loan for the benefit of everyone (Dortmund gets a qualified player who feels great with them, United lightens the wage bill, Sancho gets playing practice) another thing is what if Sancho shows himself well (and Ten Hag all will not be fired yet) then this could turn into a full-fledged hunt for the player. Let's see how it all turns out, many do not believe in Sancho, believing that computer games are more interesting to him than following a regime for the sake of football.
935  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Italian League Prediction Thread (Serie A) on: January 12, 2024, 05:25:24 PM
The reason about Juventus only playing in the domestic league this season then ya, of course will be a natural result and because of that then Juventus must get this season to be able to get a trophy in the domestic league. Therefore,if for example this season Juventus still fails to win the trophy then ya, of course it will be a bad result for Juventus . But indeed, the big win Juventus got against Frosinone in the Coppa Italia I personally can't consider such a big score at all . Because ya, usually they only win with a thin score but also about Milik, if his fourth goal is not disallowed because of offside, of course it will be even greater.

Considering that, by agreement with UEFA, Juventus abandoned the Euro Cup (they could take part in the Conference League lol), it is obvious that their first priority for the season is Serie A, and the second is the Italian Cup. In Serie A, Inter are still two points ahead of them, but the second goal seems to have almost been achieved - all that remains is to beat Lazio and the winner of the Fiorentina - Atalanta pair. All of the remaining teams look like underdogs compared to Juventus.
936  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ Sportsbet.io ⚽ Spanish La Liga ⚽ Football Pool Discussion Thread 2023/2024 on: January 12, 2024, 04:21:48 PM
~ I'm hoping for a big Clasico final.

You got what you wished for. I personally would have preferred Atleti Osasuna final, but El Clasico is nothing to be sniffed at either. I'm not sure we're watching the same Barca though. Yes, they've had great results vs Real in the past few H2Hs but Real has Bellingham... Barca's struggling to beat Las Palmas, I'd have thought you would prefer to meet Simeone's team.

Either way, important final as it's a key BSFL question to bookend the round.

Atlético - Osasuna instead of clasico?  Shocked Atlético look like a shadow of their best times, so their results are quite fun, but I still prefer the Clasico. Last year Barcelona unexpectedly won, and this year Real should take revenge and most likely fire Xavi at the end of the season because I can believe that Barcelona, having won the Super Cup, will be able to win one of the remaining three tournaments, but I do not believe that they will be able to win two out of three.
937  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🌍⚽Sportsbet.io AFCON 2024 prediction pool discussion thread on: January 12, 2024, 04:15:21 PM
~BreakingNews: lasers and smoke effects has been banned in all stadium by the AFCON committee.




It seems like nothing shocking, just normal safety requirements? As you know, these lasers can damage the retina of the eye even from such a distance, there are many videos on YouTube where the beam of such lasers bursts balloons lined up in a row.
I wonder if vuvuzelas will be banned? It seems that if you look at the map, Cote Divoire is located far from South Africa, but maybe these things are also popular there.
938  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: La Liga (Spanish League) Prediction Thread 2023/24 on: January 12, 2024, 04:08:16 PM
I'm very happy to see Barcelona win, because then I'll get to see El Clasico in the Spanish Super Cup final.
In the semi-finals, Real Madrid beat Atletico Madrid 5-3, while Barcelona beat Osasuna 2-0.
I think when they know they're going to face each other in the final, they'll prepare as well as they can, because we know it's always a very prestigious encounter.
The supporters will also be happy with this match and hope that the club they support will be the winner and lift the trophy. For now, I'm going with Real Madrid as the favorite with their better performances than Barcelona.

It turns out that this game will be the first in history when the champion plays in the final against the Cup winner, quite funny considering that Real and Barcelona historically collect 90% of the titles in Spain and it would seem that the likelihood of such a final should be very high.
By the way, do not forget that the Barcelona management set an ultimatum for Xavi (at least two titles this season), so for him this game will be vital since he cannot count on winning other tournaments.
939  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UEFA Champions League 2023/24 Season on: January 12, 2024, 03:59:06 PM
Seriously? That is, Copenhagen has good (not equal but at least tangible) chances against City in a two-game confrontation? I'm sure they have zero chance. Even if by some miracle City gives Copenhagen victory in the first game, then in the return they can easily win 6 - 0 or something in that area. The remaining pairs may be more equal (although there are also clear favorites in most pairs), but I am sure that everything is decided here before entering the field.
In terms of player material, Man City players are superior to Copenhagen, especially since Man City's star players have returned from injury, such as Kevin De Bruyne. However Copenhagen should not be underestimated, I remember last season Man City played against them in Copenhagen and drew 0-0 in the group stage. So their away atmosphere is not a joke, it is even detrimental to their opponents. Even this season in the Group A phase they managed to beat Galatasaray and Man United at the Parken Stadium, and they also played well against Bayern Munich who managed to hold themselves to a 0-0 draw at the Allianz Arena stadium. Copenhagen is not a team that gives up easily. In short, in the UCL league, especially in the knockout round, anything can be an unexpected surprise.

The group stage of the Champions League is a dull, formal game in most cases that is of no interest to anyone among fans of top teams, but it is clear that for small clubs a draw with Bayern is a historical achievement. The playoff stage is completely different. Here, surprises happen 10 times less often since every game is important, unlike the group stage where a team can secure 1st place 2 rounds before finishing and play with the second lineup.
The only thing I expect from the games between Copenhagen and City is that if the score in the first game is modest (for example, a City victory with a score of 1-0), then I will bet on the second game with a handicap of -2 goals.
940  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2023/2024 on: January 12, 2024, 03:51:48 PM
Osimhen extended the contract until the summer of 2026 (by the way, only two years, not such a long period) and the amount of compensation for early termination of the contract is 130 million euros. We have already seen that this is a ridiculous amount for top transfers lately, so there are no guarantees that Osimhen will remain in Napoli for another 2 seasons, but given that Napoli is in crisis (like Osimhen), it is unclear whether other clubs want him now as they wanted him before (at least taking into account such compensation).
There is an opportunity for Chelsea to recruit Osimhen in January and we know that Chelsea is known as a club that is wasteful in buying new players. We've seen how active Chelsea management was last summer in recruiting players, and I don't think money is a big issue for them. However, there are concerns that Chelsea must pay attention to player transfer policies, so as not to receive sanctions for violating FFP rules.

Most recently, Osimhen was reportedly involved in another conflict, but this time not with club staff. But with an agent from his colleague Kvaratskhelia. The agent said that Osimhem had the potential to go to the SPL, this sparked Osimhen anger. I think things like that have more or less disturbed Osimhen comfort, therefore a club like Chelsea seems to have the opportunity to recruit him now.
~

Yes, I heard about this conflict and Osimhen spoke very harshly about this agent on Twitter - he told him to shut his dirty mouth and all that stuff. To be honest, I didn’t understand at all why that agent started saying such strange things, maybe later we’ll find out the reason behind all this bickering.
As for Chelsea, yes, they can probably afford to buy Osimhen and even without aggravating their situation in terms of FFP - they only need to sell some of the players to free up finances for a new transfer.
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