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1  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / TxToJSON: How to include Block Number and Time in JSON on: June 12, 2014, 02:41:47 PM
Solved.

TxToJSON(tx, block.GetHash(), jsonTx);
2  Economy / Speculation / Re: Some takes on things on: July 13, 2013, 04:51:36 PM
July 13th, 2013

Well I was wrong thinking it might hit $110. It went up to $104, then dropped shortly thereafter. It seems that $100 is the "magic" number in most traders minds, as has been the case for a while now. Once it gets close to $100 it is probably a good idea to sell, wait for it to drop, reinvest, repeat.
3  Economy / Securities / Re: Active Mining Speculation Thread on: July 12, 2013, 04:15:26 PM

My prediction: 3 months from now, ASICMiner depressed or flat, ActM at least 0.025.

You highly underestimate Asicminer to think that in 3 months it will lose value. Hopefully no one follows your prediction because they will lose money on activeminer and lose out on asicminer.
4  Economy / Speculation / Re: Some takes on things on: July 12, 2013, 05:03:25 AM
Don't be surprised if it passes $110 by end of today (Friday).
5  Economy / Speculation / Re: Some takes on things on: July 12, 2013, 02:56:58 AM
Coinbase Instant Bitcoin

One of the unforeseen industry changes: The new Coinbase instant Bitcoin capability really makes things interesting. This should definitely raise the price, but could also cause rapid price fluctuations. It is now becoming a bit easier for people to instantly get Bitcoin at their computer without running to a physical location. Expect some nice upswings in Bitcoin price in the next 24 hours.

Coinbase will now see a major rise in signups, which helps Bitcoin tremendously. I have been using their service for a long time and love it. It takes 30 days for someone to get to "Level 2" which allows instant available bitcoin. By end of august a lot of new users will be buying bitcoins for instant use. Not having to wait 4 business days to receive Bitcoin is a trigger to buy. Expect price fluctuations to increase a lot by end of august with an upwards trend. I have yet to see how well Coinbase will handle buying and selling in rapid succession, I'll test it out though and post an update.

The rapid evolution of Bitcoin is a lot of fun to watch. It is definitely maturing.

Huh, coinbase is instant now?

http://blog.coinbase.com/post/55203204550/instant-bitcoin-purchases-at-coinbase
6  Economy / Speculation / Re: Some takes on things on: July 12, 2013, 02:16:22 AM
Coinbase Instant Bitcoin

http://blog.coinbase.com/post/55203204550/instant-bitcoin-purchases-at-coinbase

One of the unforeseen industry changes: The new Coinbase instant Bitcoin capability really makes things interesting. This should definitely raise the price, but could also cause rapid price fluctuations. It is now becoming a bit easier for people to instantly get Bitcoin at their computer without running to a physical location. Expect some nice upswings in Bitcoin price in the next 24 hours.

Coinbase will now see a major rise in signups, which helps Bitcoin tremendously. I have been using their service for a long time and love it. It takes 30 days for someone to get to "Level 2" which allows instant available bitcoin. By end of august a lot of new users will be buying bitcoins for instant use. Not having to wait 4 business days to receive Bitcoin is a trigger to buy. Expect price fluctuations to increase a lot by end of august with an upwards trend. I have yet to see how well Coinbase will handle buying and selling in rapid succession, I'll test it out though and post an update.

The rapid evolution of Bitcoin is a lot of fun to watch. It is definitely maturing.
7  Economy / Speculation / Re: Some takes on things on: July 11, 2013, 05:53:55 AM
July 11th, 2013

Price is still being held down with ask walls. Gox took a large USD withdrawal hit this past week. Keeping the price low entices those withdrawals to come back as deposits. The writing is on the wall, in this case walls.
8  Economy / Speculation / Re: A July 7th 2013 take on things on: July 08, 2013, 08:20:10 PM

Probably the most intelligent thread in speculation section for a long time Smiley  Maybe you are wrong in all aspects and also the price could drop once more, but : Really the best thread in a long time, simply because of correct grammer and rationality. Thank you Smiley

Thanks. Appreciate it.

It seems that the price is increasing. Monster wall at $80. These past 2 weeks have been another ride. Past three days have been very interesting to watch. Bitcoin has matured a lot in the past three months.

The wall at 80usd is a good value for a large investor...  At least their buy isn't chasing up the price.

Always depends on your view point...

TC

I agree. Too quick of a rise is not good. It is a good thing that the $80 wall is there, it will at least allow things to slowly progress but not too fast. It also encourages redeposits into gox. I would be very interested to know the source of that $80 wall and their intentions for placing it.
9  Economy / Speculation / Re: A July 7th 2013 take on things on: July 08, 2013, 05:37:15 AM

Probably the most intelligent thread in speculation section for a long time Smiley  Maybe you are wrong in all aspects and also the price could drop once more, but : Really the best thread in a long time, simply because of correct grammer and rationality. Thank you Smiley

Thanks. Appreciate it.

It seems that the price is increasing. Monster wall at $80. These past 2 weeks have been another ride. Past three days have been very interesting to watch. Bitcoin has matured a lot in the past three months.
10  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 07, 2013, 07:24:24 PM
I have been watching the charts consistently throughout the day for a few days now, observing the ask walls. Its fairly obvious that someone is keeping the price low and buying cheap coins through placing bids lower than their ask walls. They are hoarding cheap coins by getting people to sell into their bids and buying coins lower than their ask walls. They are pretty blatant about it, even placing the walls at $1 intervals.

If they decide they have reached their desired amount of coins and then lift their ask walls, bitcoin will rise, which is what they want after buying lots of cheap bitcoins.

Whomever is doing this is pretty clever as they are also doing a couple of other things to stunt the price. If you think the price is going to drop, it will not. The ask walls are keeping the price low.

Walls?



You should zoom out even more, make it look like a smooth line.
11  Economy / Speculation / Re: A July 7th 2013 take on things on: July 07, 2013, 07:19:15 PM
One of the many things I have noticed regarding the stunting tactics.

[edit: removed pic of price slide. too tall of an image. See it in post below]

Ask Walls:

12  Economy / Speculation / Some takes on things on: July 07, 2013, 07:06:34 PM
A July 7th, 2013 Take On Things

I have lurked on bitcointalk for a while now and recently made an account to post a couple things in the Securities section related to some things I saw being mismanaged. I have been recently viewing the Speculation section of this forum and decided to start a thread due to some of the stuff I have been reading. A lot of threads have been bearish, thinking that bitcoin is going to fall drastically. I don't know why it seems that the Speculation section is so bearish, maybe people can't afford to buy bitcoin at its current price so they want it to drop, they are pessimistic people in general, they just want something to fail, they like negative press or they are actually correct in their bearish predictions. The psychological aspect of the Speculation forum is a whole different topic Smiley



Prediction is almost impossible

No one can predict where bitcoin is going to be more than a month from now. There are way too many external factors that affect bitcoin coupled with the fact that it is traded 24/7. Future event such as hacking, government interference, industry adoption are just some of the unpredictable effects on the value of bitcoin.

Since I believe it is impossible to predict what the price will be in the future, I will just deal with what I am seeing now, as of July 7th, 2013. I replied the same thing in another thread, but decided to make a new thread afterwards. The walls and price is based on Mt.Gox. Gox is the main price point for bitcoin and other exchanges trade based on Gox's price. Trades on other exchanges coincide with Gox's trading almost in perfect sync. Until another market has more volume than Gox, it will be the price point for a while.


The current price stunting

Are for the current price on July 7th, 2013: it is being stunted. Someone is keeping the price low and buying cheap coins through placing bids lower than their ask walls. They are hoarding cheap coins by getting people to sell into their bids and buying coins lower than their ask walls. They are pretty blatant about it, even placing the walls at $1 intervals. If they decide they have reached their desired amount of coins and then lift their ask walls, bitcoin will rise, which is what they want after buying lots of cheap bitcoins.

Whomever is doing this is pretty clever as they are also doing a couple of other things to stunt the price. If you think the price is going to drop, it will not. The ask walls are keeping the price low. This is actually the perfect time to do something like this. A lot of money has left Mt.Gox lately, so it isn't as difficult as it was a month ago to manipulate the price.



Hiatus effect

The vast majority of the recent bearish threads have completely ignored the MtGox withdrawal hiatus effect on bitcoin. Look at the price the day before the announcement, then look at the sharp downturn immediately after. The withdrawal hiatus without a doubt had an effect. I was actually surprised that bitcoin didn't drop much further than it has.

Surprisingly, and good for Bitcoin bulls, Gox was right on time with their 2 week hiatus. After 2 weeks the hiatus is gone and people can withdrawal money. The hiatus effect is interesting for a couple of reasons. Gox will never release the figures, but it would be interesting to know how much money was immediately withdrawn after the hiatus was lifted. Another very interesting figure to know would be how much money is going to come into the Gox now that the hiatus is gone and confidence in Gox is increased. The most interesting figure would be how much money is going to enter as well as leave MtGox after this holiday weekend. Gox lifted their hiatus on July 4th, a Thursday and holiday. Banks in the US were closed on Thursday, open on Friday, then closed over the weekend. Getting a wire in before this weekend may have been tough, and risky since the hiatus was just lifted the previous day.

So right now the amount of USD in Gox is most likely much lower than it was a month ago. This makes it easy for someone to keep the price low, but not too low.



Invested infrastructure in Bitcoin

For many who think Bitcoin can drop below $20, I encourage you to consider the actual amount of money that has been invested in companies surrounding  bitcoin. Millions have been invested in startups such as Bitpay, Coinbase and others. The amount of money that has taken an invested interest in Bitcoin would be very interested in not seeing it drop too low. $5 million was invested in Bitpay alone. There are much larger pockets backing Bitcoin than in 2011 and a price below $50 would certainly see some large buys.



My opinion

Once the dust settles on the hiatus and people feel confident enough to deposit USD into Gox, expect the price to rise. Deposits=buys. Gox isn't a bank, depositing money means you will at some point buy Bitcoin. People worried about not being able to withdrawal their USD may slowly regain confidence, redeposit and buy once again. I have purchased quite a few bitcoin myself this past weekend and I believe strongly in the price increasing.
13  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 07, 2013, 06:06:42 PM
I have been watching the charts consistently throughout the day for a few days now, observing the ask walls. Its fairly obvious that someone is keeping the price low and buying cheap coins through placing bids lower than their ask walls. They are hoarding cheap coins by getting people to sell into their bids and buying coins lower than their ask walls. They are pretty blatant about it, even placing the walls at $1 intervals.

If they decide they have reached their desired amount of coins and then lift their ask walls, bitcoin will rise, which is what they want after buying lots of cheap bitcoins.

Whomever is doing this is pretty clever as they are also doing a couple of other things to stunt the price. If you think the price is going to drop, it will not. The ask walls are keeping the price low.
14  Economy / Securities / Re: The Bear Argumemt for ASICMINER on: July 05, 2013, 08:25:18 PM
Let the Gox USD "Hiatus" dust settle and remember where the BTC price was 2 weeks ago.
15  Economy / Securities / Re: [bitfunder] RentalStarter - A Midwest Real Estate Investment Company on: July 05, 2013, 06:01:36 PM
We are now in contract on a property Smiley

Very cool. Any details?
16  Economy / Securities / Re: The coming flash crash in AMC on: July 01, 2013, 03:51:46 AM
If you are an exchange: have a check and balance with separation when new assets apply. Example:

5 trusted mods review a potential asset in private. The asset pays BTC5 (non-refundable) to the exchange and in turn the exchange pays BTC1 to each mod reviewer. The exchange should not receive a fee in the beginning for this mod review process. This will ensure that the exchange won't waste time on assets that it feels aren't even worth a review.

Asset owner does not know who mods are. Any questions the mods may have are routed through exchange owner to asset owner, then then answer routed back to mods. This ensures separation.

If majority of mods approve the asset (minimum 3/5), then the asset proceeds to final veto stage. The exchange has veto-only power. It can decide to not list the asset even if the mods voted in favor. However, it cannot decide to list the asset if the mods did not vote in favor as it would defeat the purpose of having a mod review in the first place.

If the exchange waives its veto power, thus it agrees to list, then public investors will know that 5 trusted mods reviewed the asset, it was voted in favor by the mods and the exchange was given a chance to veto the listing as well. The exchange will earn fee's once the asset is being traded.

Obviously this isn't a foolproof solution, but maybe a starting point. It will at least include separation of parties and place responsibility on the exchange for ensuring a thorough "vetting" process was followed. Kickbacks, bribes, etc. should not occur since the mods will agree to not contact the asset owner directly, and the asset owner will not know the mods during the review/voting process.

It will be a good thing for the public to know that a structured process is used when assets apply for listing on an exchange. It will also be a good thing for the exchange to have it's investors confidence and a good reputation.

17  Economy / Securities / Re: The coming flash crash in AMC on: June 30, 2013, 08:25:08 AM
Very true. Having a poorly run investment exchange is just welcoming government problems. Look at what happened to mtgox. Obviously that is a different scenario, but it shows that you have to run a tight ship. Having a bitcoin securities exchange that is irresponsible as far as assets it allows is asking for problems. The concept of wild west investing when using bitcoin should be abandoned when it is obvious that the asset is a delusion investment.

Bitfunder/BTCTC/others: please be responsible in what you allow to be listed. Fancy spreadsheets, "estimates" and big promises should be considered worthless. At least have a warning on specific assets that (a) do not have hardware in hand (b) are heavily based on research/development before profit occurs (c) cashflow will not occur for over 3 months.

I keep seeing these assets being listed that are basically "Ordered asic chips from xyc. They are expected to be here in 3-6 months. Pay off my initial cost, believe my estimates and share in the mined bitcoin". Its awful.


To me it is definitely important to maintain the integrity of the exchange.  If you look through the AMC thread, (if it hasn't been self-moderated out?) you'll see that myself and many of those involved with BTC-TC have been asking questions and pointing out problems.  We tend to get drowned out in the excitement, and as you can see by how quickly the asset was approved, it's obvious to me that at least some of the (there are 20+ now) mods were also excited.

I'm not sure yet how this will ultimately pan out.  Ken seems to be putting in the man hours, trying to get things together.  I really don't feel like this is an outright Pirateat40 kind of deal.  Does that mean I think it will succeed?  I'm not sure.  I believe they already hash, I believe they will make a chip, I believe they'll probably even get their unit out the door.  What I'm not sure of is if they can do it before everyone else does, or if they can do it in sufficient volume.

This is undeniably extremely high risk to be investing in.  When I bought my first 100 ASICMINER shares on GLBSE I was almost certain I was going to lose it.  When I bought my first 100 shares of NYAN.B I was almost certain I would not lose it.  So go figure.  Those 100 ASICMINER shares have made up for all my GLBSE losses.

AMC isn't even a company, it is only a unit under VMC. How could it be approved for public trading?

Most sites just charge a fee and you are listed.  Your contract could say that you will use the money to 'Kill Whitey' and you could still be trading.

I had thought BTCT.co would be different as they do have a review process, but they failed miserably in this instance.  It looks like buyers there lost 750 BTC in the last 2 days so maybe changes will be made.

More likely not though.

My understanding is that AMC and VMC are two separate companies, with contractual agreements between each other.  This structure is not unlike the ASICMINER arrangement, though I have not picked apart all the details.  (read Deprived's posts on this, they are fairly informative.)

I'm not sure yet this is a complete failure.  What the investors paid 0.0025 per share for has not fundamentally changed, so what they wanted when they paid that they got.  There is no loss unless you sell, at which point you no longer have whatever it is you wanted at 0.0025.  Ken definitely seems to have misjudged the market around the IPO, but SDICE did the same thing, and many other issues have had the same problem.  I think the mods that approved it believe that Ken will do his best to fulfill his contract and the obligations he has laid out.  Unfortunately after that there is no "IPO management" behind the process, so Ken was free to post the shares at whatever he wanted.

What I really don't get is:

  Why did people think 2 days ago that 0.0025 was a great deal?
  And now, two days later, with minimal changes to the underlying issue, think it's not a great deal?
  On an asset that per stated plans, will take months to deliver?

The market really doesn't make any sense to me sometimes and trying to make sense of it really hurts my brain.

If there are changes to be made it's going to require more manpower to help filter better and to help the issuers plan their IPO's better.  I've been discussing getting more people involved lately, I will continue to pursue those avenues.

Cheers.


Good to know you take exchange integrity seriously. There are lots of people watching bitcoin. There is the general public, private sector and governments. If you don't run a tight ship and protect the average investor, certain entities will find a way to cause your business to suffer. Regardless of what country you live in, their reach is far and wide.

Perhaps your list of questions and problems that you pointed out must be directly addressed by the asset and posted before it is listed. A sort of exchange owner Q&A for each individual asset that investors can read before making a decision. For instance, if a question or concern you had, you being the exchange, was lost in the excitement it should at least be addressed in full regardless of excitement or moderator approval.

There are so many holes in the business structure for AMC that it invites theories/accusations/negativity, which is obviously occurring now. Then the exchanges face public discontent as having listed the asset. The business structure of AMC is the main reason why it should never have been allowed as an asset.

Hopefully everyone will learn from this particular issue an avoid such problems in the future.
18  Economy / Securities / Re: Wheres the RentalStarter buzz? on: June 30, 2013, 02:24:22 AM
I like the idea a lot. I bought a nice chunk of it. I support the asset because it is not mining/gambling related. Too much dreck out there right now. Nice to see a fiat company starting with bitcoin investments.

Yes there is risk with dealing in btc-->fiat. However, this is to be expected. The best thing is that this type of asset is not dependent on getting asics in the mail. Using bitcoin to invest in real world assets, in this case real estate, is great for the bitcoin cryptocurrency as a whole.
19  Economy / Securities / Re: [bitfunder] RentalStarter - A Midwest Real Estate Investment Company on: June 30, 2013, 02:10:31 AM
congrats you're at .018 Smiley

Your asset has potential. Kick ass and take names. Learn from the mistakes of others.
20  Economy / Securities / Re: The coming flash crash in AMC on: June 29, 2013, 04:20:07 PM
I agree 100%. I hold the exchanges, specifically their owners, responsible. This get rich quick method of opening a "company" and then listing it on an exchange is going to hurt bitcoin investing in the long run.

The first time I read the description of AMC I was extremely disappointed that exchanges would even allow such a concoction to be listed. Shame on the exchanges. The ridiculous business model and rules, especially that AMC and VMC are owned by the same entity, should have been an instant no-go for the exchange. Burnside/Ukyo/whoeverelse, please tell me how you can possibly read the description of AMC and allow such a thing to exist on your exchange.

Exchanges: enjoy your fee's now, because this method of doing business will hurt you in the long run. However, if you gain the reputation as a diligent exchange that does not allow these type of "securities" you will gain the respect and confidence of investors. Please do not use the "investor ignorance is not our fault" copout. Its your responsibility to disallow these types of schemes from being listed in the first place. You are a pseudo accessory by allowing it to be listed.
It is a bit disappointing, isn't it?  Zero negative votes against the AMC-PT on BTCT -- I would have thought this was an opportunity for BTCT to distinguish itself from the crowd.  Sort of demonstrates how a financial sector, left to its own devices, can't self-regulate effectively when all the individual players, including the exchanges, act their in their narrow self-interest.

Somewhere down the line, months or years from now, it will be situations like this that cause government agencies to wave their arms and insist that more regulation is needed over this space.  (Whether enforcement is feasible is a separate question.)




Very true. Having a poorly run investment exchange is just welcoming government problems. Look at what happened to mtgox. Obviously that is a different scenario, but it shows that you have to run a tight ship. Having a bitcoin securities exchange that is irresponsible as far as assets it allows is asking for problems. The concept of wild west investing when using bitcoin should be abandoned when it is obvious that the asset is a delusion investment.

Bitfunder/BTCTC/others: please be responsible in what you allow to be listed. Fancy spreadsheets, "estimates" and big promises should be considered worthless. At least have a warning on specific assets that (a) do not have hardware in hand (b) are heavily based on research/development before profit occurs (c) cashflow will not occur for over 3 months.

I keep seeing these assets being listed that are basically "Ordered asic chips from xyc. They are expected to be here in 3-6 months. Pay off my initial cost, believe my estimates and share in the mined bitcoin". Its awful.
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