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681
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Coming ASICs device will further increase the price of BTC.
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on: June 18, 2013, 10:43:54 PM
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if you look back the history of BTC mining, the price of BTC is related to mining difficulty.
I did look back, carefully, many times. I even applied cross-correlation algorithms. I even corrected the data for technology leaps from CPU to GPU to ASIC. Mining difficulty mostly follows price, not the other way around. Google search volume mostly follows price, not the other way around. What price follows, in order of importance, is (1) chaos, (2) insider trading and information, (3) paid and orchestrated media campaigns as part of pump'n'dump attempts As I clearly explained in my previous post, miners absolutely cannot play any significant role in exchange rates. The numbers are rock solid. So, what is you though about ASICs? are they really does has any positive impact on price ? what I thought is this time is different, because CPU or GPU to stop mining are not any cost issue lock them to do so ,but as I stated ASIC are totally different concept , you can't use CPU or GPU to judging that ASICs will has the same impact as those two. In fact, that since last time price drop we will see a steady build up through time, Again, people are buying BTC instead of mining. the only thing we need to discuss is whether BTC will continue maintaining people's trust. if it does, then the question will be very clear, if price below profit level, miner will continue mining , but not selling. My argument is related either no bad news and no good news ,everything is remains the same.. the join ASIC will secure the price of BTC and with a positive impact. Yes, ASICs are obviously different from (im)provisional mining hardware that has some use and value outside of Bitcoin ecosystem - although, do not ignore the heat that ASICs create - in certain regions you could recoup some of the heating cost by mining... I cannot, however, come up with any specific connection with bitcoin exchange rates. I tried hard, believe me. Emergence of ASICs simply indicates that Bitcoin has become important enough to warrant development of dedicated hardware and mining firms. Still, so do the sex toys, fishing equipment, and amateur astronomy - not that big of a deal in the larger perspective. What you should focus on is the total investment of the mining industry. That is an important indicator, as that is what ultimately secures the network and shows the level of confidence in Bitcoin. ASICs got people excited, and it seems that total value of mining equipment today is higher than ever before. That is the good sign. The next good sign after ASICs will be the start of an arms race, and emergence of closed-source, proprietary ASIC farms operated by mining companies. This will also spell an end to mining as a profitable hobby we do at our homes. I speculate that this will start happening once the price enters the $800-$1,200 region (if ever). Again, all these developments are mostly driven by price - they don't drive the price to any significant extent. I might think too simple, but I still believe that ASICs will secure the price anyway.. may be you are right , this question is very difficult to be proving, since price is related to too many factors and no one can tell exactly impact of those factors on price. |
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683
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Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It
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on: June 18, 2013, 08:07:16 PM
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Pretty much everyone tries not to bug him incessantly. Highly doubting he's going to respond to PMs unless they're from someone like TAT or a well known forum/exchange member.
[/quote]
Agree with you ,friedcat is a human, not superman.....we should believe him and let him do some his things.
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685
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Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER Speculation Thread
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on: June 18, 2013, 07:57:58 PM
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well, I'm freaking out that I didn't sell at 2.9, like some other people around here.
That ask line is dropping, little by little, we are going to be in the 2.7s in a few hours if something doesn't change.
As a investor , you could not expect you will perfectly predicting the market. do not freaking as long as you are profitable, and if you think you are worry about the price then just selling some part of your AM and collect the profit.This would be a most prudent way. Be happy unless you are investing in few of the profitable asset over the market, did you see there are lot of people are suffered because they can't sell their asset at whatever price.. |
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686
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Coming ASICs device will further increase the price of BTC.
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on: June 18, 2013, 07:52:53 PM
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if you look back the history of BTC mining, the price of BTC is related to mining difficulty.
I did look back, carefully, many times. I even applied cross-correlation algorithms. I even corrected the data for technology leaps from CPU to GPU to ASIC. Mining difficulty mostly follows price, not the other way around. Google search volume mostly follows price, not the other way around. What price follows, in order of importance, is (1) chaos, (2) insider trading and information, (3) paid and orchestrated media campaigns as part of pump'n'dump attempts As I clearly explained in my previous post, miners absolutely cannot play any significant role in exchange rates. The numbers are rock solid. So, what is you though about ASICs? are they really does has any positive impact on price ? what I thought is this time is different, because CPU or GPU to stop mining are not any cost issue lock them to do so ,but as I stated ASIC are totally different concept , you can't use CPU or GPU to judging that ASICs will has the same impact as those two. In fact, that since last time price drop we will see a steady build up through time, Again, people are buying BTC instead of mining. the only thing we need to discuss is whether BTC will continue maintaining people's trust. if it does, then the question will be very clear, if price below profit level, miner will continue mining , but not selling. My argument is related either no bad news and no good news ,everything is remains the same.. the join ASIC will secure the price of BTC and with a positive impact. |
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687
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Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER Speculation Thread
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on: June 18, 2013, 07:42:55 PM
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Mining revenue is lower than last week:  Shares on the TAT.AM went for as low as .025! Bitfunder dropped below 2.8! Can I start freaking out, yet? As long as if your selling AM shares at profit level, you should not call it freaking out, but I personally think the difference between bid and ask is mean the ask line is hold by people's will . |
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688
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Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER Speculation Thread
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on: June 18, 2013, 07:40:46 PM
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Hash rate is dropping, competitor pools are increasing, hardware sales are minimal, and the mining dividend is stuck at .015. If BTC/USD crashes in the next day or so, I am afraid that AM may go to 2.5 or lower.
Seriously, the hash rate looks like something major happened. I haven't seen any news from Friedcat, but I'm expecting issues at the data center. I certainly hope not, because this is really the wrong time for mining revenue to decrease.
We could be seeing a perfect storm brewing OR it could be nothing, and Friedcat is bringing in loads more TH/s to increase the mining revenue.
So, what do you guys think? Cash in on some profits before dividend drop or what? Where will we see the floor by next Sunday?
I am retaining my profit first, because I saw all people holding AM try to hold there ask line very strong ,but there are lack of bids ,I though this ask line will be broken soon if the hash rate not coming back in short time. |
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689
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Coming ASICs device will further increase the price of BTC.
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on: June 18, 2013, 07:34:10 PM
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Someone said, that the increased difficulty make it happen, that less coins are produced every day, is that true ? With the increase in difficulty the price in long term can only rise  Or it will fall a little bit when the new asicminer generation is coming in october, we will see, only my thoughts. Ok. we will know by then ~ |
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691
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Coming ASICs device will further increase the price of BTC.
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on: June 18, 2013, 07:11:51 PM
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The reason is simple:
ASIC devices are only use for BTC mining purpose , they will depreciate its value over the time and with no residual value, not like GPU miners they can sell its graphic card if mining is not attractive for them. this equal to set a exit barrier for those new ASIC miners. the only things for them to recovery their investment is to maintains BTC price at acceptable level by act rationally when BTC price is under their expect profit range ,( limiting their supply to the market), util the market adjust price level at what they expected.
I think BTC price are determine by factors below:
legal factors.
mining investment.
people's trust.
Since ,the development of ASIC we will see a more stabilize price ever. People never stop investing in BTC, this is the truth so far, KNC pre-order sold 8562 units. no matter what the currency they used to pay, we should assume all those cost paid to KNC will as a indirect investment into the BTC world, thus the ASIC mining will further increase the price of BTC. further more , not only KNC, there are BFL ,ASICMINER and so on. payments made to mining rigs manufactures are far more than what we thought , may be more than the money paid to the online exchange.
If no government intervention or other related bad news in the future, we should expecting another BTC price increase ,because of those ASIC devices are start mining . That increase is coping to the market trend and based on people's rationality , if anyone ask me , what the BTC price are backed ? I will say that BTC price is backed by every currency investing into mining and those payments made to its reflect cost.
PS: The rights to issue money should not below to government , it should below to its users which are people.
Welcome to debate with me , if you feel that assumptions above are not rational and are false.
The problem with you starting assumption is that about 60 000 coins are traded every day at major exchanges. This doesn't even include OTC and in-person deals. In comparison, miners currently provide an average of 3 600 new coins per day. Therefore, miners withholding or selling coins cannot have any significant effect on the price. Most people are holding coins and while mining coins by their miner rigs. I mean this part of people , actually has a great impact on price ,I think most miner are not selling every day what they has , and they are hold large potion of BTC indeed, if the price below certain level , they will not sell, if you look back the history of BTC mining, the price of BTC is related to mining difficulty. |
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692
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Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It
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on: June 18, 2013, 06:24:25 PM
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Sold half of its blades to some rich Chinese people who interest to mining business, and received RMB with transaction. Received RMB could prevent exchange this amount of BTC over exchange will absolutely caused a huge price dump...Friedcat a nice guy makes every possibly effort to protecting us.. God bless you ,mate!!!
This is just pro-ASICMINER rhetoric until we can confirm. Information without sources are more harmful than good. If you have a source, post it. Isn't feel I am overstated something by told rhetoric language. just think this is a meaningless , do not take it seriously. |
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693
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Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It
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on: June 18, 2013, 05:16:48 PM
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Selling blades in bulk for cash would make a lot of sense if some NRE costs are coming up for the next generation of chips, seeing as those costs must be paid in cash (selling a ton of BTC to raise RMB might be problematic). If that is the case we won't see the dividend pop, but it will all be cool nonetheless.  Sold half of its blades to some rich Chinese people who interest to mining business, and received RMB with transaction. Received RMB could prevent exchange this amount of BTC over exchange will absolutely caused a huge price dump...Friedcat a nice guy makes every possibly effort to protecting us.. God bless you ,mate!!! |
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694
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Coming ASICs device will further increase the price of BTC.
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on: June 18, 2013, 05:12:10 PM
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Liquidity is the issue, may be they can mining ALTs by choose which is most profitable, the thing is how could they sold out ???price of alt coins often distorted, if they could not sell it or very difficult to sell ,despite might more profitable , I do not think they will mining to those coin. Those alt coin are so poor....any of ASIC could destroy them by 51% attack....thereby no reason for ASIC to join them. |
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695
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Coming ASICs device will further increase the price of BTC.
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on: June 18, 2013, 04:57:48 PM
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Liquidity is the issue, may be they can mining ALTs by choose which is most profitable, the thing is how could they sold out ???price of alt coins often distorted, if they could not sell it or very difficult to sell ,despite might more profitable , I do not think they will mining to those coin. |
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696
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Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It
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on: June 18, 2013, 04:50:07 PM
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The most reasonable reason regard to this instantly drop of hashpower ,is Friedcat ...
I'm going to disagree. The most reasonable reason is variance. The hashpower is unchanged, but the luck is a little bad for a few hours. The charts calculate hashpower based on blocks found, not based on actual hashpower. A decline in luck for AM can easily correspond with an increase in luck for a major pool. Now, for the last time, can we stop discussing why hashpower changed over any period shorter than 3 days? If you think hashpower changed, ask yourself what time period the change is over. If it's less than 3 days, the MOST likely explanation is variance. If it's greater than 3 days, then you can start speculating about hardware being moved, planned slowdown before difficulty reset, etc. It feels like we have this discussion every 7-10 pages in this thread. Variance. Again, variance. Again, variance. Oh, yes ,variance ...I hope this situation will stop soon...get luck back AM...I do not sure about how those chart derive AM's hashpower, but a 10 % variance is just too extreme, I rather than believe there are suffered pending electricity supply . |
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697
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Coming ASICs device will further increase the price of BTC.
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on: June 18, 2013, 04:45:44 PM
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Most alts are Scrypt based derivatives of Litecoin, and at present can not be mined with ASICS. The few exceptions to this are: PPCoin (PPC), Namecoin (NMC), Terracoin (TRC), Devcoin (DVC), Freicoin (FRC), and IXCoin (IXC).
There are some people looking into getting ASICS to mine Litecoin and other scrypt based coins but it will be away before that is posible. I also wonder if it will ever be a possibility or just a fantasy.
So,my assumption isn't false language, the up coming ASIC will has postive effect on BTC price, since it set entry and exit barrier for the miner, and currently those other Coins are useless, provides with needless liquidity, no reason to use those expensive ASIC devices to mining them . |
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698
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Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It
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on: June 18, 2013, 04:28:55 PM
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I think everyone here, do not start panic selling, in case both assumptions are not pessimistic. correction: do start panic selling, Im waiting @ the bottom for your sell orders. It looks like someone on btct sold TAT.AMs all the way down to 0.025121... and I had no buy orders in :/ It will be a tough day to selling AM-PT at 2.89 level... the price will significantly dump because of the hashrate drooped. |
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699
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Coming ASICs device will further increase the price of BTC.
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on: June 18, 2013, 04:23:22 PM
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ASIC devices are only use for BTC mining purpose
Wrong. They are can, and currently are, mining alts, like ppcoin for example. Yes , they can, but consider of the liquidity level provides by alt coins and bitcoin, mining most of alt coins by ASIC device is a hopeless action, it well very difficult for those miner to recovery initial capital by mining alts coin, you should understand that all ASIC device are extremely over priced, for those guys who buying those devices if they are rational they will never used it to mining other coins, due to liquidity issues. And as above I stated I personally do not believe alt coins are substitute to BITCOIN, the reason they are survive is because the succeed of bitcoin, if bitcoin went wrong is equally means the concept of encrypt currency is not longer appreciate by people, thus all alts coin will disappear either. |
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700
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Coming ASICs device will further increase the price of BTC.
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on: June 18, 2013, 04:15:39 PM
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ASIC devices are only use for BTC mining purpose
Wrong. They are can, and currently are, mining alts, like ppcoin for example. aren't alts practically pegged to bitcoin price? From my personal opinion, alt coins are not perfect substitute to bitcoin, if bitcoin totally crashed this equally means people loss faith on encrypt currency, there are no reason that other coins will be survive, may i ask you one question , if BTC totally crashed what will you do ? investing in other encrypt currency or go back to reality hold FUD, I think most people will choose to back to their own currency . |
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