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1  Other / Politics & Society / Re: NASA admits climate change occurs because of changes in Earth's solar orbit... on: August 10, 2022, 09:46:42 PM
Weird to see someone with such an aversion to science and facts suddenly regarding NASA as a source of authority. But there we go, even Big Oil shills can surprise us from time to time.

You may be interested in this illustration of climate change from a former NASA employee:

https://xkcd.com/1732

2  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Populated countries with backward leaders on: August 04, 2022, 09:59:35 PM
covfert

Covfefe?
3  Other / Politics & Society / Re: The COVID-19 scare on: July 21, 2022, 07:45:46 AM
With the most recent figures showing triple vaccinated children aged 10 to 14 are a shocking 13,633.33% / 137.3x more likely to die of Covid-19 than unvaccinated children.

Do you want me to explain to you why this claim is misleading, or are you able to work it out for yourself?
4  Other / Politics & Society / Re: The COVID-19 scare on: July 20, 2022, 04:01:40 PM
~  

3.5 million people currently infected, 93% of people have had at least one dose of vaccine, latest deaths per week is 412. This tells quite a powerful story.

High cases is a consequence of the removal of all requirements for self-isolation and social distancing, and the guidance that even if you test positive, you should still go in to work or school if you feel able.
This guidance may or may not be considered somewhat controversial, and whilst it is partly a consequence of the latest variant being less deadly than earlier variants, it's also a direct consequence of the high levels of protection conferred by what has been a hugely successful vaccination programme.

If you're interested in the data for the UK, this is a great source that has everything you need: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom



Hello to “King Kong Monkey Covid.”

King Kong is an ape, not a monkey. He is also, like the disease with which you're trying to smear him*, fictional.


* How would you even do it? Attach a giant turkey baster to a old-style biplane and circle the Empire State Building until he shows up?


5  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Trump Lite on: July 17, 2022, 08:15:45 PM
The climate is in fact changing over the long term, but that doesn't mean that it is being caused by humans, that there is anything that humans can do to stop/reverse it, nor that it will result in harm to the ability to inhabit the planet. There have been multiple cycles of climate over long periods of time, for example, many years ago, there was the ice age.

Measures to "fight" climate change are really a means to make the West weaker economically and militarily compared to China.

The climate is changing over the short term, and this is caused by humans. It certainly affects our ability to inhabit parts of the planet. It continues to amaze and appal me so how many ordinary people of a generally "right-wing" political leaning will happily lap up whatever lies they are fed by the oil industry and their stooges in government* rather than accept incontrovertible fact, simply because they don't want to be seen to identify with what they perceive as a "leftie" cause. The climate crisis is not a cover for some ideological push for a big state, or a geographical analogue of BLM, or anything like that. It should transcend politics, we all share the same planet, FFS, and everyone will be affected, even if they aren't already.

I write this on a Sunday evening. In my country, we're expecting to break our national temperature record tomorrow or Tuesday. Other parts of the world are literally on fire. 400 million people in China inhabit a place that may soon, for parts of the year, have such a high temperature that humans simply cannot survive there.




* ... and cigarettes don't cause cancer, right?  Roll Eyes




Because the Chinese government should be trusted by default. In the meantime, China will continue to build additional coal power plants and will take other measures to increase its carbon emissions.

In the West, governments are actually taking steps to becoming less energy independent.

Neither China nor the West is doing anything like enough. It's mainly political greenwashing, and half-hearted commitments to go to net zero by 2050, which will of course be far too late. Hence my sharing that xkcd strip again.



6  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Trump Lite on: July 16, 2022, 12:54:20 PM
Tackling the climate change problem translates to more stability long-term, which, is actually a conservative value.

Democracy is a great idea, and elections every few years are also a good idea. But one problem with the way modern western democracies are set up is that it fosters short-termist thinking. Looking at climate change, even if we ignore the might and influence of the oil industry, the fact remains that fixing the climate involves sacrifices now in exchange for a reward in the future. Most governments - and particularly a Tory government - will shy away from implementing any policy that could make themselves look bad and their (unknown) successors look good. I assume at some point the climate issue will become so overwhelming that the spell might be broken and serious action might be taken, but by then a lot of damage will have been done. Governments will respond reactively (when they have to), rather than proactively (when they should). Sadly, it's a situation where this comic is relevant yet again.


https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/scientific_briefing.png
7  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Tennis League All Thread on: July 15, 2022, 11:03:30 AM
Betting on Thiem or Murray is in a way like betting on Krygios, I wouldn't generally do it, they're too unpredictable. In Krygios's case it's his mentality, but Murray it's the physical uncertainty. You can analyse Murray's recent performances, but we'll never be able to get information on exactly how his hip is doing on any given day, or how his recovery has gone after the previous match. I find it a lot easier to bet on players for whom there isn't so much unavailable information.
8  Other / Politics & Society / Re: People are waking up to the fact that viruses and germ theory are fake. on: July 15, 2022, 10:52:05 AM
Lab notebooks are not personal things in cases of importance. Notebooks have 2 basic reasons for existing:
1. So that the researcher can follow his process to duplicate what he did the first time;
2. So that other researchers can follow the process so that they can duplicate the results of the first guy.

Anybody can glance at a writing and say that it was all fake. That's why we need the notebook... so that we can follow the process to get the results. If we can't determine the whole process, the whole operation, because the process is as unclear as your example below, there is no way to know if we are duplicating it properly. And there is no way to know if the process works or not as the report says.

In addition, the notebooks are signed or initialed by the researcher on every page, and the pages are all numbered in order in a bound book-style of notebook, to prove that it was written by the researcher. His name and address are included, so that we know where to contact him for details we don't understand.

You kinda have it backwards. We want proof, not some vague, generalized idea about something.


This "argument" doesn't make any sense at all... unless, perhaps, you simply don't understand what a published scientific paper is?



provides evidence of [...] It appears that

What kind of BS guesswork is being handed to us? And you are falling for it.

Since this report was accepted by the medical as proof without any proof, why should we accept anything that the medical says?


Okay, you may not understand what a scientific paper is, but you definitely don't understand the language of science. Please could you read Salty Spitoon's post above? That should cover it for you.

"It appears that" doesn't mean "Hey, I've had a random unsupported idea: x! Let's go with that!", instead it means something more like "based on everything we've detailed here, the logical conclusion is x".
And I don't know how to respond to your objection to the phrase "provides evidence of"... that goes beyond the language of science, and suggests that you don't understand English.
9  Other / Politics & Society / Re: The KRAKEN rises, meaning the 2020 election fraud is being corrected. on: July 14, 2022, 07:37:29 PM
On another front, Dems are preparing to Arrest Trump in October - https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/07/julie-kelly-lee-smith-issue-dire-warning-democrat-partys-october-surprise-arrest-president-donald-trump-video/ - halfway down the page for this video.

Don't you think that site seems a little biased? And by "biased", I'm being kind. The tone isn't really one of impartial high-quality journalism.

Quote
the ongoing persecution of the January 6 political prisoners
Quote
Democrat Party operatives who are behind the physical and mental torture of Trump supporters who have been targeted in the January 6 witch hunt.
Quote
US Attorney Matthew Graves is [...] the Democrat-Socialist Party’s hitman. He delights in the torture and abuse of his political foes and invents charges to ensure their personal destruction.

There are no facts here, it's just weird ranting. I don't why I'm quoting excerpts, you could pick any section from the article and it would read the same way.
10  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Tennis League All Thread on: July 14, 2022, 07:23:18 PM
Is anyone betting on the Tennis is Newport USA? Andy Murray is in the quarter finals
and faces Bublik tomorrow.

I generally follow tennis fairly closely, but I often seem to lose interest a bit straight after slams. I've been half following Newark, but not betting on it, no. Was surprised to see FAA going out, which does leave Murray's half a little open... but I'm not sure how far he'll get, it's the consecutive matches in a short space of time that's tough for him.
11  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ Football Transfers Speculation, Odds and Predictions on: July 14, 2022, 12:48:37 PM
The latest speculation surrounding Ronaldo involves crazy money - even for a world-famous footballer.

Apparently, a club in Saudi Arabia have offered him €300 million (that's £254 million) to play for them for two seasons... so roughly 100 weeks in two years, that works out as €3 million a week.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/articles/cv26xqywgrno

If true, I suppose a lot of this is due to the publicity and sales it will generate for the club, rather than a measure of what he could offer on the pitch (particularly as he'd be 39 by the end of the contract). Even so though, it's quite an astonishing offer.

I was just going to talk about this rumour. It is an enormous deal and this kind of teams don't see it a big deal to pay fantastic amount of money for a star footballer. However I don't expect Ronaldo to take this deal and go. Because his wish is to be able to compete in the Champions League. This Saudi team can't give this to him. Ronaldo has no problem with money also and he is still very ambitious about winning big titles. Therefore I expect him to reject this offer.

His wish may be to play in the Champions League, but realistically, how many Champions League clubs will be willing to pay a transfer fee plus astronomical wages for a 37 year old? And even then we'd need to limit it further, I doubt he'd be willing to play for any Champions League side, it would have to be one of the handful of big name global clubs. And none of them seem interested. I don't think he can play for a top team on top wages. He can play for a lesser team (e.g. the Saudi example) on top wages, or he could offer to take a pay cut to play for a top Champions League side, or middle ground he could get top money playing for a decent-ish side and remain at Man U.
12  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2021/2022 on: July 14, 2022, 11:20:20 AM
I don't think very much should be read into that Man U victory over Liverpool. Yes, 4-0 sounds quite comprehensive, but it has to be taken in context. It's not a competitive match, and not only is it pre-season, it's early pre-season and players are still getting fit. But the biggest reason is the players they put out, Liverpool made so many substitutions, they had over 30 different players appearing in total.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/62141591
13  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ English Premier League Season: 2022/2023 on: July 14, 2022, 07:31:58 AM
Manchester United 4-0 Liverpool
[...]

Even though this was a friendly game between the Premier League giants, Liverpool will not hold the psychological edge when they meet in the premier league on 22nd August because under ten Hag they seem to effective going forward, the opposite of what was happening when Rangnick was their temporary manager. There is a balance of experience and fearless youth in this Manchester United squad.

Liverpool ended up finishing the game using van Dijk, Salah, Konate, Fabinho, Thiago, Robertson, Keita and all the main players but they lost 0-4.

I think Sadio Mane will be missed by Liverpool, he was a huge presence in the dressing room and on the pitch for them and their performances will suffer this season because even with the acquisitions they have made this season they will be unable to replace such as iconic figure immediately. Liverpool will be a weaker team without Mane whereas Manchester United already so bad last season cannot get any worse and the only direction for them is up.

I'm not sure it's particularly illustrative of anything, the score was 4-0 to United here, but apparently Liverpool used more than 30 different players over the course of the match, so I can't imagine there will have been much flow to their play. And Liverpool also apparently hit the post three times.

I'm not sure that we can say much about it, as you say it may conceivably give United a psychological edge when they play for real... but I don't think this would be enough to overcome the fact that Liverpool are the far superior team of the two, and when it comes to a real match you'd still expect Liverpool to win.
14  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ Football Transfers Speculation, Odds and Predictions on: July 14, 2022, 07:22:31 AM
The latest speculation surrounding Ronaldo involves crazy money - even for a world-famous footballer.

Apparently, a club in Saudi Arabia have offered him €300 million (that's £254 million) to play for them for two seasons... so roughly 100 weeks in two years, that works out as €3 million a week.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/articles/cv26xqywgrno

If true, I suppose a lot of this is due to the publicity and sales it will generate for the club, rather than a measure of what he could offer on the pitch (particularly as he'd be 39 by the end of the contract). Even so though, it's quite an astonishing offer.
15  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Tennis League All Thread on: July 13, 2022, 07:48:33 PM
It's a weird situation as Covid is obviously going to continue for a while, so likely no Djokovic at next year's AO either. And I can't see Russia pulling out of Ukraine or Wimbledon backing down any time soon, so a decent chance of no Medvedev at Wimbledon 23... which leaves the French Open as the only slam where all the top players can play and the field isn't weakened in some way. It's quite bizarre.
16  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2021/2022 on: July 13, 2022, 01:00:48 PM
it's a poll for the past season, and not always the top team will always be the favorite because the selection of who will be the champion will very likely be based on the favorite team from the voters, but I don't think it will be different in the new season that will take place soon there will only be a few teams who can be a competitor for last season's champion

Yes, it's difficult to see beyond Man City and Liverpool for the title in 22-23. A lot will depend on how quickly the new strikers at each team bed in and start scoring goals. I suppose there's somewhat more of a question mark over Darwin Nunez than there is over Haaland, but still, we just don't know yet, there are a lot of uncertainties involved when moving to a new country and a new team, it's not just the ability of the player, it's how well they fit into the system of the team and adapt to the league as a whole. Might be a month or two into the season before we get a clear picture.

They say Nunez is a proper striker and of good quality.I think if you truly are with such characteristics then you should have no problem playing well at each country you go.I cannot think of a better example to make comparison to this analogy with Ibrahimovic,Cristiano and Messi which they have all excelled at any country they have played.I know these are world caliber players and Nunez is far of being the same quality as of them but exactly playing at a team like Liverpool can give you the opportunity to become a world class player,you just have to be ready to make all the sacrifices it takes to become one and at Liverpool you are playing in a world class club.

I don't just mean the goals you score as a striker though, I mean it's vital for the new player to gel in the team as a whole. Top teams can't have any weaknesses, they can't have any gaps that opponents will exploit. I think the Ronaldo example is pertinent, his headline figures at Man U are great, he's scored a load of goals for them this season, but Man U as a whole underperformed... in part because they're not a single cohesive whole, they have weaknesses such as Ronaldo's unwillingness to press or track back. If Nunez and Haaland just score goals, this will be more than enough against most teams, but in matches against other big teams they'll have to be perfectly integrated into the unit, too, not just be stand-alone goalscorers. Any gaps in team structure will be exploited by competent opponents.
17  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UEFA Women's Euro 2022 on: July 13, 2022, 12:56:08 PM
Of course I had no doubt from the start that England would beat Norway, but to beat them by such a huge score is just unbelievable. Perhaps the English have decided to show that they are favourites in the World Cup for a reason, and that they have a great footballing team, even the women.

I watched this match and was really enjoying the goals that where coming in. The English team over powered the Norwegian ladies. The back defense line for the Norwegian were very uncoordinated and weak which was the major reason the English team found it easier to penetrate and frustrate their keeper. I hope they do something on their back line.

I think England were a bit better than people expected, and Norway were a lot worse than people expected, and these two factors, combined with Norway starting to panic a bit as the goals continued to flow, is what gave such an unexpected result. I'm not sure how it will affect them going forward, will England become a bit over-confident? Betting odds will probably favour England more than should be the case. They're certainly a good side, and a contender for the title, but yes as you say the Norwegian deficiencies definitely played a big part in this result, it wasn't purely England destroying whoever was put in front of them.
18  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2021/2022 on: July 13, 2022, 10:36:21 AM
it's a poll for the past season, and not always the top team will always be the favorite because the selection of who will be the champion will very likely be based on the favorite team from the voters, but I don't think it will be different in the new season that will take place soon there will only be a few teams who can be a competitor for last season's champion

Yes, it's difficult to see beyond Man City and Liverpool for the title in 22-23. A lot will depend on how quickly the new strikers at each team bed in and start scoring goals. I suppose there's somewhat more of a question mark over Darwin Nunez than there is over Haaland, but still, we just don't know yet, there are a lot of uncertainties involved when moving to a new country and a new team, it's not just the ability of the player, it's how well they fit into the system of the team and adapt to the league as a whole. Might be a month or two into the season before we get a clear picture.
19  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Tennis League All Thread on: July 13, 2022, 10:30:45 AM
Yeah, better accept for better or worst that Djokovic will not be in the US Open and so it will open the doors for other players to claim this grand slam. And there could be more rank player that can miss the tournament because of covid restrictions and other reasons.

Although there is a US player that is not vaccinated but can play in the US Open.



https://twitter.com/TennysSandgren/status/1537498249715716096

But I guess he is not a top rank player.

I don't think ranking comes into it, the fact is that he's American, and there are already plenty of unvaccinated Americans in America, the rule is that unvaccinated foreigners can't enter the country.
I think the US is well aware of the chaos in Australia back in January, and so they are making their rules crystal clear, so there's no room for misunderstanding. Whether or not people agree with their decisions, I think we can all agree that being clear about it and removing any element of doubt is absolutely the best thing they can do.
20  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ Football Transfers Speculation, Odds and Predictions on: July 13, 2022, 10:25:42 AM
Dembele is currently a free agent, but I think Barcelona will eventually renew his contract, he is a talented players, and was able to assist 14 goals from 38 appearances last season. Although, Barcelona haven't so far talked about extending his contract. However, they made a great decision by bring Raphinha in the club. Nevertheless, Barcelona still have some players in the club, who probably don't have intentions of being in the club anymore. Players such as Samuel Umtiti and Oscar Mingueza.

I suppose with Barca and their financial situation it will be a struggle and is all about balancing the books. That's why I'm quite surprised at the big transfer outlay on Raphinha. A lot of it is also about wages for big players though, which is probably how they're doing it... for example, they off-loaded Coutinho to Aston Villa for a reduced transfer fee, but at the same time managed to remove his huge wage burden, and so free up funds for incoming transfers. Dembele is another one, it sounds like they want to keep him and he wants to stay, and if they can agree reduced wages then everyone's happy(ish). IIRC they almost managed to keep Messi with a 50% wage cut, but there was a legal obstacle that prevented such a huge % cut, even if the actual wage was still high, so he had to be sold.
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