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1  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Motosport General discussion tread --- Formula1, MotoGP, WTCC, ETCC, DTM..... on: September 23, 2020, 12:52:28 PM
i don't know about the correctness of the new regulations, is it allowed to develop a new engine?

I think it's quite complex as outlined here:
https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-news/teams-can-still-improve-frozen-cars-for-2021/
https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/how-development-freeze-will-save-f1-teams-money/4797766/

Some development is permitted, but I'd be extremely surprised if there was sufficient room for Ferrari to suddenly be right up there competing with the Mercs.
Mercedes are so far ahead at the moment, that with the development limitations for next year, I can't see anyone realistically challenging them until the rules reset in 2022.
2  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: which coins do you suggset to buy before the end of 2020 (BCH, LTC , ??) on: September 23, 2020, 10:36:13 AM
i know most people will avoid BCH because it was free forked coin, but that was in past, today it's actual good coin.

It's not so much that it's a fork, as that it has no real use-case. I would avoid it.
As for what to buy now, BTC and ETH would be top of the list. Boring choices, but ETH looks strong with 2.0 and staking on the way, and BTC because it is often the first mover when the market turns upwards, and we still have significant room for growth before we consider a new ATH.
3  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Is African continent a cursed land? on: September 23, 2020, 07:51:34 AM
In all the damage done to them by people from other continents, their own people did it to them just as much.

The second is caused by the first. When a colonial power withdraws, they rarely leave a stable and sustainable state behind. They just get out, create a power vacuum, and leave the country to deal with the ensuing chaos themselves. History is littered with examples, and often the only way to stabilise the country is by implementing martial law: instant dictatorship. But there are other examples too, it's not always the military. Rwanda/Belgium is a particularly appalling story of what can happen when colonialists leave - genocide was all but guaranteed.
4  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: The Cycling Thread on: September 23, 2020, 07:38:20 AM
I never thought about gambling on the cycling competitions since I find it very difficult to predict the racing results.

Team sports are probably more reliable than individual sports, because you spread the risk of errors. If one player in a football team makes an error, it can certainly have a negative effect, but not so much as if a cyclist makes an error. The risk is spread. And the problem of individual errors becomes more extreme with how dangerous the sport is - if a runner trips up, they can get back on their feet and try to rejoin the pack... but if a cyclist crashes, there's a reasonable chance that they are out of the race entirely. If we add in the inherent uncertainty in cycling, things like mass pile-ups, the person in front of you crashes or does something stupid and you pile into them... or even just the chaos of racing over wet ground or cobbles... one tiny error at high speed can mean the end of your chances... and this isn't the case in a lot of other sports.
5  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: bloody market on: September 22, 2020, 10:19:17 AM
Crypto is extremely vulnerable to changes in sentiment in traditional markets. This is because crypto - including bitcoin - is seen at present as primarily a highly speculative asset class.

Obviously world markets are vulnerable at the moment as the economic effects of Covid 19 start to be felt. Stimulus measures are temporary and not long-term fixes; the underlying problem still remains, and handouts need to be paid for. We can expect economic turmoil to continue for some considerable time, and markets to remain extremely fragile. For crypto, this means sudden price drops can happen at any time... and it makes prices even more volatile than normal.
6  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: US Presidential Election 2020 on: September 22, 2020, 09:46:51 AM
Most of the so called "right-wing" judges are constitutionalist. That means that they make their judgements based on the constitution. On the other hand, the left-wing judges regularly disregard the constitution and make judgements by interpreting the laws in a way which suits them.
I don't really want to get into the left/right bad/good argument... but regardless of one's political leanings, I'd say that if a certain party really wants a certain judge to be appointed, then it's most likely because they want judgements that they agree with... so it erodes impartiality whichever party is pushing for the appointment.
7  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Rate a Newbie Crypto Portfolio on: September 22, 2020, 08:49:44 AM
~

Buy bitcoin. Make sure it forms a decent percentage of your total investment.
The mistake I made when I started was to go all-in on alts, and it took me a while to see it. I see a lot of newcomers making the same mistake I did.

Bitcoin still has huge room for price growth, so don't be put off by the fact that it's already expensive. It is more resilient to price drops than other coins, it has a strong use-case, and it is the safest crypto purchase you can make.
8  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2020/2021 on: September 22, 2020, 08:16:05 AM
First game is always tricky.
Yes. Often the best times for a smaller team to upset the odds is either at the start of the season or the very end of the season.

Aston Villa - sheffield united
I don't think this game told us much, other than that Villa have problems against teams who just sit back to defend. Something to bear in mind with in-game betting - if Villa go a goal down, they may struggle to find an equaliser. Of course all that may change now they've bought Traore.
9  Economy / Economics / Re: Boris is right a second lockdown could cripple UK economy. on: September 21, 2020, 12:40:04 PM
now community spread has been reported from almost all the British counties. Any new lockdown measure will have very limited positive outcomes.

Regardless of whether lockdown is good or bad, I'd disagree with the above.
If we put in some arbitrary starting values to illustrate the point, let's assume an R value of 2, and that cases take a week to spread. Let's start from 1,000 infections. Let's assume the capacity of the Health Service is 10,000 cases.
wk1:  1,000 current cases
wk2:  2,000
wk3:  4,000
wk4:  8,000
wk5: 16,000
wk6: 32,000

If you implement lockdown at wk3, when the problem is getting worse but is still manageable, you fix the maximum cases at around 8,000, assuming that the wk3 people have already infected others who are yet to show symptoms. But if you wait one more week, then you are locking down when cases are 8,000 and will rise to 16,000.

Not saying the R value is 2, but it's certainly well above 1. There is a need with exponential progression to act before it becomes a problem. If you wait until it is a problem, then you're way too late. This is exacerbated by the fact that number of confirmed cases is a lagging indicator.

10  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: US Presidential Election 2020 on: September 21, 2020, 12:17:21 PM
There's not even a pretence of judicial impartiality here. If a certain party is desperate to appoint a certain judge - this goes for left as well as right - then the expectation is that that judge will make decisions based in large part on political leanings rather than on what the law actually states. I appreciate that laws are complex, nuanced and sometimes subjective and contradictory, but there shouldn't be attempts by politicians to introduce bias that works in their own favour. If you're going to do that, then why bother having judges at all? This is certainly not just a US problem, it happens all over the place. It's rare that you can find a country where the ruling party don't try to introduce unfairness that benefits themselves.
11  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: US Presidential Election 2020 on: September 21, 2020, 10:44:01 AM
Things just got a lot more complicated, with the death of SCOTUS judge Ruth Bader Ginsburg (known as Darth Vader Ginsburg among the conservatives). Remember that she refused to resign in 2016, when Barack Obama had a chance to replace her with a similar ultra-leftist judge. Now Trump is the president and the GOP holds a sizable majority in the senate (53-47). Even if the most liberal GOP senator (Lisa Murkowski) defects, the conservative pick will be elected to the SCOTUS. Just one and half months before the POTUS elections, now a new topic has emerged all of a sudden.

Yes, McConnell blocked Obama's nomination in 2016, ostensibly because it was an election year. Now, 2020, with Trump about to nominate another Republican yes-man (or yes-woman, he's said it will be a woman)... we are in an election year, and McConnell is desperate to get the nomination in asap. They used to at least make attempts to hide this sort of hypocrisy, now it's like they couldn't care less.
12  Economy / Economics / Re: Boris is right a second lockdown could cripple UK economy. on: September 21, 2020, 09:30:15 AM
Which one is more important, to have a crippled economy or basically letting people die

The crucial question, and we know the government's answer. But the thing is, it didn't have to be a choice between the two. The reason it has become a choice between the two is because of the government's initial lack of response.

Back in the early part of the year, China was in lockdown and the virus was spreading to other countries and wreaking havoc wherever it landed. In the UK, we even had Italy as an example right on our doorstep... and we did nothing.
The importance of being pro-active is drilled into us all the time. The government should have done so here. The best course of action would have been to bring in quarantining of all people entering the country. The result would have been a (comparatively) small economic hit, followed by no lockdown and business as normal. No crippled economy, no massive infection and death rate. In all these threads I keep talking about exponential growth. You don't control exponential growth by waiting until it is a problem; you need to act early so that it doesn't become a problem. This idiocy has been replicated around the globe, although the UK is certainly a particularly egregious example. Johnson should learn that doing nothing and hoping that a problem will go away is not a viable response to a global pandemic.

This xkcd strip from 09 March might deserve another airing:


https://xkcd.com/2278/
13  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Motosport General discussion tread --- Formula1, MotoGP, WTCC, ETCC, DTM..... on: September 21, 2020, 08:38:09 AM
you get the feeling no team will be able to significantly improve their car this year or next year, which is not good news.

Yes, next year's cars will be very similar to this year's, before the total reset we will have in 2022. Ferrari have all but confirmed they have no chance until 2022:

Minor F1 update.

The fact is Ferrari have no chance in 2020, with a shortened season and from a position so far behind Mercedes - where they are actually getting lapped in a race! Equally they have little chance in 2021 with the restrictions that have been put in place for that season due to the Covid19 pandemic. Perhaps with enough little changes they could be competitive in 2021, but it's a lot of effort for a single season before everything has to start again. I think the focus on 2022 makes absolute sense.

Confirmation of the above has now come from the Ferrari chairman (John Elkann).

Ferrari chairman says team cannot be competitive before 2022
Quote
"This year we are not competitive because of car design errors," Elkann said.
"We have had a series of structural weaknesses that have existed for some time in the aerodynamics and dynamics of the vehicle. We have also lost in engine power.
"The reality is that our car is not competitive. You saw it on the track and you will see it again."
Elkann said that Ferrari supported the decision taken at the height of the coronavirus pandemic to delay new rules aimed at closing up the field until 2022.
But he admitted that this decision, and the fact that teams have to use the same cars again in 2021 as this year, would penalise Ferrari "greatly, given that we start off poorly - and we must be realistic and aware of the structural weaknesses of the machine, with which we have been living for a decade".
He also addressed the team's decision not to renew Vettel's contract and replace him for 2021 with Spaniard Carlos Sainz.
"In the past 10 years we have had champions such as (Fernando) Alonso and Vettel, who have been world champions," Elkann said. "But it is undoubtedly more difficult to rebuild a cycle and ask patience to those who have already won compared to those who have the future ahead of them.
"We are laying the foundations for building something important and lasting, and the contract we signed with Charles proves it: five years, never so long in Ferrari's history.
"Leclerc and Sainz will make Maranello their home, will be close to our engineers. The new machine will be born with them."

It is also worth noting that Ferrari have now brought in world-leading designer Rory Byrne... crucially, he'll be working on the 2022 car rather than the current and '21 iterations.
https://thesportsrush.com/f1-news-rory-byrne-the-man-behind-all-of-michael-schumachers-title-winning-cars-at-benetton-and-ferrari/

Hopefully 2022 will mark the start of a new era where no single team is dominant, and we can see more exciting races with more drivers having a genuine chance of victory.

---


I don't understand why the Ferrari thing is kept secret, though.
Mercedes using a thing like Ferrari last year but they are in a different way with different materials and they can abuse the oil situation.

I'd imagine the Ferrari thing was kept secret because of Ferrari's power within the sport.
As for the Merc 'white smoke' being a rule breaker, I'm not convinced. Generally the teams that are stretching the rules are doing so in a desperate attempt to make up ground on the leader. The fact is Mercedes have been in a class of their own for years now; the pressure to bend the rules is all on the chasing pack.
14  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2020/2021 on: September 21, 2020, 08:09:40 AM
Aston Villa's big summer spend looks to have been effective - they are in 12th, with 2 games in hand on the teams in the relegation zone... a big improvement on last season.
If they can just find a way to keep getting games postponed instead of playing them, they're all set for a mid-table position.
They may have played 0, but they've also lost 0 and don't have a negative goal difference...

 Grin
15  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XRP] Ripple Speculation on: September 21, 2020, 07:41:50 AM
XRP does have huge potential, and I expect that price rises, when they happen, will be sudden and dramatic as we've seen in the past with this coin. I had anticipated that once the US legal case had failed, then XRP price would increase substantially, but this hasn't really happened. It has been the case before with XRP that when there is good news around the coin, the price remains unmoved - very different to what we see with other coins.
16  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: What is the prospect of BAT in 2020? on: September 20, 2020, 04:23:38 PM
I use the brave browser, but I don't have a bat in my wallet.
What should I do so that every month I get a bat token?
very disappointed

I don't think you should view it as a potential income stream; the amount you'd earn is very small.
Have a look here though if it's not working for you. There's a video to walk you through setting up rewards: https://brave.com/brave-rewards/
Try here, too: https://support.brave.com/hc/en-us/articles/360026361072-Brave-Ads-FAQ

From my personal experience, it seems to be a good browser, but I have everything enabled and I've never seen an ad.
17  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: The Cycling Thread on: September 20, 2020, 07:28:55 AM
It's been a weird Tour this year, with the Covid disruption and the uncertainty at the normally ultra-professional Ineos machine. I don't think we expected Bernal to crack in the way that he did. Of course if Thomas and Froome had been there and in top condition, the story could have been very different. I don't know if it was overconfidence based on years of domination, and Ineos just thought they could send any old team out and still destroy the opposition... but obviously that was not what happened this year. Perhaps Bernal wasn't able to cope with being the sole focus of the team, and this combined with the fact that their team was weaker than usual led to the failure. Either way, with Froome leaving this year feels like it's a bit of a reset for Ineos. Perhaps they could have won with a stronger team, perhaps not, but it does seem like the dominant force may be crumbling a bit.
18  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: Top 10 alts under $0.10 that can go 100x on: September 20, 2020, 07:02:39 AM
crypto projects that are all under $0.10 right now and have the potential for going 100x

I don't think the 'under $0.10' has any relevance here. The price of an individual coin is dependent on supply, the two work together - which is why we tend to use market cap to determine the overall quality of a coin.
A coin at $1 with a supply of 1 million is exactly the same as a coin at $0.01 with a supply of 100 million. Both have $100m market cap, both are equally likely to go x100. There is no difference. If you put $1 into both coins, they are equally likely to give you $100 return.
19  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Ripple the next bitcoin? on: September 20, 2020, 05:58:48 AM
As we all have seen ripple has been quite strong these past few days and with all that it has done over the past months compared to most other currencies and the launch of xrapid is actually starting to show in its price.
There is so much talk about ripple taking over bitcoin and being 10$ what are your thoughts on this?

$10 sounds excessive. We did have $3 a few years back at the height of the 2017 / early 2018 frenzy... but the price fell back quickly. I do believe in the long-term potential of the coin, and they are one of the leaders in terms of integration with the real world. But I don't think this has anything to do with the launch of xRapid, which has been live for a couple of years now. I'm not sure about it being 'the next bitcoin' either, as the use case is entirely different. We do also (still) have the court cases with Ripple, which is probably depressing the price. Long term though, yes, if they can get through the legal stuff then the future looks promising. I just don't know about $10.
20  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin and Lockdown in every country on: September 19, 2020, 02:28:39 PM
Looking specifically at price, I think that the effects of Covid 19 on bitcoin have been in general about what we might have anticipated - a sharp drop followed by a recovery. Regardless of its long-term use-case, bitcoin is currently seen by many holders not as a safe-haven, but as a highly speculative asset. This meant that when the virus started spreading out from China, and lockdowns started, and it became apparent that it would affect every nation... people started moving their money away from 'risky' assets such as bitcoin and into safer non-crypto alternatives. And indeed we did see a huge initial price drop of around 50%.

The thing that surprised me was how rapidly the recovery started, and how after only a few months bitcoin had surpassed its pre-Covid level. One reason that might have contributed to this is that governments started bailing out everyone in sight an attempt to shore up their ailing economies. The 'money printer brrr' response is of course reminiscent of the 2008 crisis, and the subsequent birth of crypto. The euphemism of Quantitative Easing, coupled with other government responses, really highlights some of the deficiencies of centralised fiat currencies, and has done so again. Perhaps this gave bitcoin price some extra upwards impetus. Secondly, pre-Covid bitcoin was on an upwards trajectory anyway, so the rapid recovery should be seen as a part of that. A third - and more prosaic - reason might be simply that when prices fall suddenly and substantially, there is a tendency for overshoot, which almost always triggers some form of swift rebound.

Personally I think that all three reasons have contributed, but I am hopeful that the first reason is the primary factor. The sooner people realise that fiat is unfair, the more quickly bitcoin will become integrated into mainstream society.
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