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I don't know where you read about Wyckoff reasoning of lack of supply leading to breakouts or building a momentum. But what I have read about Wyckoff method is that a selling climax or spring should be accompanied by an increase in volume to show expanding participation. He used increased volume to confirm a reversal, breakout or a trend. As much as I have read, low volume means nothing as it shows lower buying/selling powers which are incapable of bringing any market trend. And in the highly manipulated market as that of cryptos, low volume means nothing at all.
It's what they teach at university. You can listen to this lecture if you have the time and find the part where it says volume petering off means that the composite operators (whales) are trying to close off the supply, leading to a price rise. Which is why I think it's just not relevant to crypto but some of my mates stand by it. |
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Duly noted @alex_nn. On to the next Alex I would like some thoughtful replies on those who are familiar with the Wykoff Method. Recently, there have been many citing the Wykoff Method for Bitcoin - that it's in accumulation mode.
I would like to forward my critique of this method, which is based on breakouts. According to the method, an uptrend with little volume is a signal for the continuation of said uptrend. This is because:
1. The lack of volume signals that whales are purposely limiting the supply and therefore forcing even small buys to have a significant influence in upwards momentum.
2. Lower supply means the thinning of sellers
Now for the counterargument. We've all heard statements like 'oh, this pump was without significant volume, therefore it is likely not to be sustainable'. The thinking behind this is
1. Big buys result in higher volume. This means more commitment in an uptrend (which is directly contradictory to the Wykoff method)
2. With Bitcoin's overall volume being very small compared to normal assets. Market manipulation often happens easily - so a breakout with low volume is easily 'painted' onto the charts. It could very well be a bull trap.
Now, it does seem that the 2nd line of thinking has been closer to what's happening compared to Wykoff's principles, or I am missing something?
The Wykof method is considered one of the best methods of technical analysis on Wall Street. In addition, there is hard evidence that this method works in most cases, the only point is that it's more suitable for the stock market, which is slower than the cryptocurrency.  Yes I know, but my issue with this is that low volume accompanying Phase D is a bullish signal. Read my low volume interpretations above. |
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I would like some thoughtful replies on those who are familiar with the Wykoff Method. Recently, there have been many citing the Wykoff Method for Bitcoin - that it's in accumulation mode.
I would like to forward my critique of this method, which is based on breakouts. According to the method, an uptrend with little volume is a signal for the continuation of said uptrend. This is because:
1. The lack of volume signals that whales are purposely limiting the supply and therefore forcing even small buys to have a significant influence in upwards momentum.
2. Lower supply means the thinning of sellers
Now for the counterargument. We've all heard statements like 'oh, this pump was without significant volume, therefore it is likely not to be sustainable'. The thinking behind this is
1. Big buys result in higher volume. This means more commitment in an uptrend (which is directly contradictory to the Wykoff method)
2. With Bitcoin's overall volume being very small compared to normal assets. Market manipulation often happens easily - so a breakout with low volume is easily 'painted' onto the charts. It could very well be a bull trap.
Now, it does seem that the 2nd line of thinking has been closer to what's happening compared to Wykoff's principles, or I am missing something?
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I think that this drop comes the ASIC miners from Bitmain that threaten further centralization of Eth. Each antminer will cost $10-30k, which will make GPU mining obsolete. It is also the same reason Monero has 'declared war' recently.
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I'm not too sure about the time line. But in my opinion at least until May, how low? I do not know either. What I know is that bad news (even binance) seems to drive the price lower, but good news, has not effect. So given that this is the current trend on fundamentals, I look to TA and see the 200 MA crossing the 50 MA, plus btc's chart looks really bad on ichimoku clouds. But TA only goes so far as to outline what phase of the market is nigh; and can't predict when that will turn.
However, I know the heavy manipulation on btc, and this might be just a ruse to get people to sell off.
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200 MA just crossed 50 MA, we might be in for the start of the bear market. Ichimoku clouds show no imminent reversal either, I won't be too optimistic for growth at this point. TA might not be that reliable, but good news is doing nothing to the market (Circle acquiring Poloniex, Coinbase news etc) which suggests it is in a crazy bear situation.
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It souds cool and possible to work but I want to remind you that people happily used fake gps apps in even pokemon go to show themselves walking/running. Getting rewards. How can this app block this especially on android, I don't know.
I would like to point out that while that's true, they are easily mitigated by banning the use of rooted phones etc. Even then, the prevalence of cheaters will not mean much if it's a manageable small percentage and might not have too much of a downside (putting fitness bands on a dog to get steps etc). My concern however, is token economics (assuming the op is thinking of buying LYM). Since free coins are given out, I'm not sure how this token will be in demand. Yes, perhaps with gym memberships or other services Lympo offers, but it's a bit murky. It's still the first of its kind though and this has peaked my interest. Well there is more things that will help with it's usage not only gym memberships or sports equipment. The market of health data should be a really big factor since it's relay scalable and versatile with insurance and target marketing. Not to mension the fact that the data collection can spread to other areas. Fair enough. Any idea why it's so strong in this bear market? |
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To answer this very question, I would like to quote someone and that is "The absence of evidence is not the evidence of absence.
Yeah. For all we know there could be intelligent life out there where we seem no more intelligent then a goldfish does to us. We just do not know. If I had to take a guess, I would say there is life or something that is more intelligent than us out there/somewhere. Indeed, I fully expect our known concepts of outer space neighbours to be thoroughly challenged if we ever do meet one. Like you, if I were to make a bet, I'd say yes. It's simply mathematically impossible to not have aliens. Imagine billions of galaxies (even outnumbering the entire human race) and our speck of dust is the only one which has lifeforms? |
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G-20 will make unattractive the cryptos due to hard regulations and certain bans. In fact, what they are going to talk is so much important, that , according to what i know, Crypto will go to hell in 5 days.
Bad news are coming, goverments and banks want to know how much money you put in, how much you win, and who gets it. This will force exchanges to be regulated so that all "anonimous" information about clients actually disappears.
Big whales, traders and investors are not in crypto for tech. Nor are the 99,99999999% of you. They are, LIKE YOU, in for profit. If crypto is so regulated that you cannot do what attrated people to this , (money laundering and tax evasion among other things), inverstors simply will run away from this madness.
If people actually cared about technology, why would have nearly 70% of the hole value of cryptocurrencies gone?? If ETH, is so good, and has a bright future, what has changed that has forced investors that had 133 billion in this, to actually stay only 40 billion and going down?? has the technology proved wrong? Is it not effective?? NOOOOO!!!!! It's goverments and the profit of crypto vs no profit for goverments and banks what is actually DESTROYING crypto.
In the G20 we will see the hate goverments and banks have against crypto, because the more money it goes in, the less they control it. Banks are losing a huge amount of money to lend because of this, and this is why they are all against. to the point they are even banning you from using your own credit card!!!
G-20 will almost clarify how are they going to destroy Crypto with regulations. The problem you guys seem not to understand, is that you consider regulations good because they give certitude for the future. The real issue is that THOSE REGULATIONS will make Crypto not interesting for investors because, once money laundering, tax evasions, total anonimous transactions and the impossibility to track the money and who really sells it , will live crypto for the value the technology has, and this concept has been proved to be very low, and numbers talk clearly.
Hope you all guys are losing the money and you can afford that. Moreover, i wish i was wrong in all my statement. I really hope so.
Get a grip. The country that is calling G20 for crypto regulations is Japan and the agenda is to prevent money laundering. This is a good thing. We do not want illegal activities to keep using crypto as a way to hide their money and we certainly do not want terrorists to use crypto as a way to fund their activities too. There are many countries who do not want to see too much regulations to kill crypto. We are all losing money but for those of us who still have our heads on our shoulders, we know that this period of pain will pass and we should not panic. chill. sorry but i disagree. The real FACT!!! is that crypto has been used by big whales, investors, drug dealers, terrorist and many other people to do their business without a goverment controling it. Not even the police could track the money moved by those grups. IF!!! you force big regulations towards making it impossible for the people mentioned to do their own shit, what will occur, and it definetely will, is that those big big investors will go another way, since they don't want to be controlled, paying taxes for crypto, and having a huge risk due to volatility. Have you ever thought that what you consider as being "good" is actually bad??? Yes, maybe a lot of illegal money will exit the space, and businesses that use crypto merely for tax evasion. But you will also have mainstream money being less hesitant to enter crypto, which will far supersede illegal money. |
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As always - MOVING GOALPOSTS.
People have said that the market/BTC/altcoin bullrun will be in Jan, then end of JAn, then Feb, end of Feb, Mid March, end of March, and now all the way up till May. Same goes for the opposite. The dip will be to 10k, then 8k, 7.6k, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2.7, 1..
It's an exercise in futility.
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It souds cool and possible to work but I want to remind you that people happily used fake gps apps in even pokemon go to show themselves walking/running. Getting rewards. How can this app block this especially on android, I don't know.
I would like to point out that while that's true, they are easily mitigated by banning the use of rooted phones etc. Even then, the prevalence of cheaters will not mean much if it's a manageable small percentage and might not have too much of a downside (putting fitness bands on a dog to get steps etc). My concern however, is token economics (assuming the op is thinking of buying LYM). Since free coins are given out, I'm not sure how this token will be in demand. Yes, perhaps with gym memberships or other services Lympo offers, but it's a bit murky. It's still the first of its kind though and this has peaked my interest. |
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Bitcoin has been declared dead by haters at least hundred times in last years. The price can not go up all the time, it's the rule of the market. The price correction that we are observing now will soon be over and Bitcoin price again will be in an upward trend. It's definitely not the end, it's just the beginning.  I quite agree. More so when in the past 2 months, we have had solid news on the fundamentals. You have coinbase getting a license, hedge funds moving towards crypto, countries regulating crypto (not outright banning), and even crypto trying to regulate itself (twins). And Google did a good job of finally trying to clamp down on spammy ads. You will see much less phishing links, and ICOs will have to obey Google's terms to be able to advertise. I only see good news, who's selling? |
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I like VeChain. It's undervalued and could win the 'most promising coin' at the crypto oscars. However, it did have it's rise and it's not under the radar any longer. I would suggest looking into coins that may NOT change the world, but have a high chance of adoption.
Many of these coins are in the gaming industry, which I feel is more primed for adoption that most other industries. It is a community fit because:
1. The gaming community has already assigned real monetary value to virtual goods
2. It solves a major problem where a lot of fraud happens with the trading of gaming items/tokens
Off the top of my head, coins like Enjin and GTO come to mind. Of course, GTO being a recent call of Palm Beach.
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Let's talk about the bubble that everyone talks about, and let's zoom in to the opinion that most coin marketcaps are overpriced by 20x due to projects not being delivering real value as of yet.
There is one problem with that though, there is no exact science to evaluate a project's value base on it's coin's marketcap, yet. Cryptocurrencies are not stocks. In stocks, we might use the P/E ratio to determine whether a price is overvalued.
Cryptocurrency is not a stock, and neither is it 'forex'. You might be able to trade the value of EUR to USD, USD to JPY, and just about every currency. You can't do that with crypto. In my opinion, it is a hybrid that no one has every seen before. It's value is indirectly tied to the performance of a company (kinda stock-like), and yet it's a mode of exchange as well (a currency). So is there even a good quantifiable way to say that a company should be worth this and that much of its coin's marketcap?
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this is not the first china to ban crypto, nothing has changed. just a short-term panic.
all back to normal quickly, I am optimistic that china only do monopoly, they just want to master everything.
China, banning crypto since 2013. |
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I think we are nearly through to the other side of the depression!
What does everyone else think?
I don't see any fomo, and still bearish sentiments with low volume around. But I do hope the tide turns, because we've already been in a 3 month bear market (I counted more than 10 bull traps, insane!). A 6 month bear market in crypto will really mean the Great Depression after all. |
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I was wondering, why a lot of projects don't have such an important thing for a successful ICO as a product.
When a company has a product it means they have it to develop. In such case, a company shows why they need ICO and how the company will be growing. What is more, there is more trust because a company has experience in a field they are working.
For example, KickCity company that exists two years. KickCity an event platform that generates revenue and has a Helsinki government grant. KickCity needs ICO to make business bigger and to become a decentralized platform where every user is rewarded for ticket promotion.
On the other hand, no product ICOs can prove their success just in theory. There is no proof base that product will be developed and will be working right.
In such unstable industry as ICO everything has to be under control. The product is one of the things that shows the campaign is not a scam. That is why I believe it is better to invest in ready-made products ICOs.
I would also say, be wary of ICOs with just about everything completed from an existing business to partnerships (way way past MVP). In this case they might not even need money to begin with. |
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With BTC dominance increasing (around 42% now), I think we can expect alts to catch up soon.
Usually, the trend after a major correction is BTC dominance rising, then major alts catch up, and the lower alts follow. Times are good for a while before the market goes through another correction, and the cycle continues
That might have been the pattern in the past, but aren't the markets more unpredictable than that? For example, mid year 2017, btc went up, alts followed. It wasn't until the fork shenanigans that btc went up on it's own and people sold alts to ride the wave. After than, btc had a huge 30% correction at the end of the year, BUT alts went 5-10x. Then btc crashed and everything crashed in Jan. These 3 varying patterns happened within the same year and suggests that the market is fairly unpredictable. Now, we have been in a bear market for 3 months, it seems that if we have no way of going up (notice the low volume across exchanges; not very encouraging), we would have months of drought again. Now this would be a 6 month bear market which rarely happens if you're not counting the exodus in 2013. But it's the only new pattern we can have so far, and is the likelier one to happen. |
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I know I have responsibility for my money. It's my choice and I don't hate anybody, I just hate myself
I'm so sorry for your loss. Never put in more than you can lose. I have made such losses as well, but as long as you diversify, the ones gaining will make back all those losses eventually. You can still bounce back and there's hope yet. Maybe not in this bear market, but there are signs of reversal and I reckon that it will happen within the next few months (or even this month). |
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Major hodler here. Sell 30% at 5-10x. Some coins I don't sell, even bounties.
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