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1  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: October 02, 2013, 02:32:08 PM
Dividend confirmed: 0.00800337

Quite respectable all things considered, IMO.

Great dividend considering the current hash rate, lack of new products for sale/mining, and the fact that AsicMiner has been withholding a percentage of the dividend for reinvestment.
2  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: September 27, 2013, 03:43:25 PM
For those that have PT shares on BTCT, where are you transferring them? Seems like Bitfunder and Havelock are the best options but I'm not very familiar with either.
3  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: September 23, 2013, 06:59:00 PM
By the way, as Warren Buffet says, "be fearful when others are greedy, be greedy when others are fearful".
Apparently with AM people are always greedy, regardless it's going up or down.
So vycyd is the only one following this wise advice, so far (at least, publicly).
And he's making huge profits (I guess).
gg to him.


You're completely misinterpreting the quote if you think now is the time to sell. The time to sell was 4-5 BTC/shares when people were being greedy and many prescient people did that. Everyone is being fearful now which makes it a good time to buy. If ASICMINER only paid out a .01 dividend per week going forward, you would be getting 38.5% yield at a share price of 1.35. Personally I think ASICMINER will be able to pay a higher dividend but only time will tell.
4  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: September 23, 2013, 01:54:37 PM
Picked up some shares. ASICMINER is definitely the safest security to own on BTCT and the recent panic-selling has made it very inexpensive.
5  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: September 19, 2013, 08:33:36 PM
Last 30 hour hashrate reading is at 58.23 and the 20 hour is at 73.90. Perhaps some new hardware is being deployed?
6  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER Speculation Thread on: September 16, 2013, 08:10:40 PM
How did you estimate profit margins Vycid?

Educated guess. Yes - that means "I don't know". I am fairly confident I am close enough to reach a reasonable conclusion, though, which is what is important. I have estimated conservatively; AM will have to perform exceptionally well to be worth more than my price target.

I've estimated that it costs FC $1.50/GH currently. That will drop for Gen 2. Based on estimates for the competition (which are much higher, in general), I think it is possible he will continue to dominate for the next year - although a 75% profit margin is pretty extreme. I'm sorta playing the waiting game with the year-forward margin. It's not going to go up much (obviously it's impossible to go higher than 100% anyway), but it could go down a lot if the competition shows unexpected strength.

30% is a very impressive profit margin, but not out of the question for year 3 of an immature industry.

20% beyond year 3 is very generous. Most mature companies do not make that kind of margin, and ASIC mining is a low-barrier industry, so that's all faith in Friedcat right there.

20% profit margin is very generous? The largest company in the world has a 22% net profit margin and gross margins in the high 30s, which is common knowledge among investors with a 'pedigree' in value investing.

You can't see why ASIC mining is going to be a low-margin industry? Exceptionally low startup cost and startup time, fast breakeven, little regulatory difficulty in many jurisdictions.

You're incorrect, BTW. Walmart's profit margin is 3.67%. Royal Dutch Shell, 5.2%. Exxon Mobil, 8.98%.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_companies_by_revenue

I knew I was dealing with an amateur masquerading as an analyst. Apple is the largest company in the world, with a market capitalization of $412 billion. Exxon Mobil is second with a market capitalization of $391 billion and Walmart isn't even in the top 10 with a market capitalization of $244 billion. This is all VERY common knowledge in investment analyst circles...

Thanks for linking a wikipedia page on highest revenue companies, I got a good laugh out of you using it to justify your argument in claiming that I'm not correct.



Careful with those accusations.

Market cap measures VALUE. So the most valuable public company in the world is the one with the highest market cap. Not the largest. If you knew the first thing about valuation you would know this.

An honest listing of company size NEVER uses market cap. It is usually revenue (sometimes number of employees, depending on what you are looking for).

Based on this information, why should we be unsurprised that the company with the highest market cap also has such a high margin?

Really, all you have done is proven that 20% margin is exceptional.

That's the best you can come up with?  Roll Eyes It was an implicit statement; and a fairly obvious one at that. Valuation is the pillar from which all investment discussions and analysis flows, ask anyone in the finance industry what the largest company is and they'll list companies by market cap, not revenue.

7  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER Speculation Thread on: September 16, 2013, 03:28:20 PM
How did you estimate profit margins Vycid?

Educated guess. Yes - that means "I don't know". I am fairly confident I am close enough to reach a reasonable conclusion, though, which is what is important. I have estimated conservatively; AM will have to perform exceptionally well to be worth more than my price target.

I've estimated that it costs FC $1.50/GH currently. That will drop for Gen 2. Based on estimates for the competition (which are much higher, in general), I think it is possible he will continue to dominate for the next year - although a 75% profit margin is pretty extreme. I'm sorta playing the waiting game with the year-forward margin. It's not going to go up much (obviously it's impossible to go higher than 100% anyway), but it could go down a lot if the competition shows unexpected strength.

30% is a very impressive profit margin, but not out of the question for year 3 of an immature industry.

20% beyond year 3 is very generous. Most mature companies do not make that kind of margin, and ASIC mining is a low-barrier industry, so that's all faith in Friedcat right there.

20% profit margin is very generous? The largest company in the world has a 22% net profit margin and gross margins in the high 30s, which is common knowledge among investors with a 'pedigree' in value investing.

You can't see why ASIC mining is going to be a low-margin industry? Exceptionally low startup cost and startup time, fast breakeven, little regulatory difficulty in many jurisdictions.

You're incorrect, BTW. Walmart's profit margin is 3.67%. Royal Dutch Shell, 5.2%. Exxon Mobil, 8.98%.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_companies_by_revenue

I knew I was dealing with an amateur masquerading as an analyst. Apple is the largest company in the world, with a market capitalization of $412 billion. Exxon Mobil is second with a market capitalization of $391 billion and Walmart isn't even in the top 10 with a market capitalization of $244 billion. This is all VERY common knowledge in investment analyst circles...

Thanks for linking a wikipedia page on highest revenue companies, I got a good laugh out of you using it to justify your argument in claiming that I'm not correct.

8  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER Speculation Thread on: September 16, 2013, 01:28:31 PM
How did you estimate profit margins Vycid?

Educated guess. Yes - that means "I don't know". I am fairly confident I am close enough to reach a reasonable conclusion, though, which is what is important. I have estimated conservatively; AM will have to perform exceptionally well to be worth more than my price target.

I've estimated that it costs FC $1.50/GH currently. That will drop for Gen 2. Based on estimates for the competition (which are much higher, in general), I think it is possible he will continue to dominate for the next year - although a 75% profit margin is pretty extreme. I'm sorta playing the waiting game with the year-forward margin. It's not going to go up much (obviously it's impossible to go higher than 100% anyway), but it could go down a lot if the competition shows unexpected strength.

30% is a very impressive profit margin, but not out of the question for year 3 of an immature industry.

20% beyond year 3 is very generous. Most mature companies do not make that kind of margin, and ASIC mining is a low-barrier industry, so that's all faith in Friedcat right there.

20% profit margin is very generous? The largest company in the world has a 22% net profit margin and gross margins in the high 30s, which is common knowledge among investors with a 'pedigree' in value investing.
9  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER Speculation Thread on: September 03, 2013, 01:12:09 PM
FC said he will deploy expotentially in September and Qctober. But why FC is still not deploying?

I saw some very large spikes in the ASICMINER hash rate over the past couple days, seems to me that he may be testing units. It's only Sept. 3rd...
10  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: August 30, 2013, 05:19:41 PM
With the price of shares of AM so closely tied to the btc/fiat rate, it is becoming difficult to calculate the correct ROI, and to determine if it is in fact positive.

At $90 per bitcoin, AM shares averaged around 4.5 each. 4.5 * 90 = $405.

At $120 per bitcoin, AM shares averaged around 3.3 each. 3.3 * 120 = $396.

At $130 per bitcoin, AM shares average around 2.9 each. 2.9 * 130 = $377.

Today:

At $140 per bitcoin, AM shares average around 2.5 each. 2.5 * 140 = $350.


This apparent loss of fiat purchasing power as the price of btc increases may be replaced by the dividends. They are only a few dollars at best per week, but  there are multiple dividends per price period so the accumulation of dividends might offset most of it. Of course, there are other factors such as other IPO, breaking news, FUD, etc. But a clear pattern is establishing itself. Could it be possible that, just like buying an asic (in most cases anymore), you are better off just sitting on your BTC than you are in investing? Help me out here and show me what I am missing.

Correlation does not equal causation. All else equal, investing in a BTC mining company is more of a leveraged bet on the price of BTC increasing rather than a hedge as some have described it. AMs share price has fallen due to a few different factors, including: competition appears to be increasing, total network hash rate has increased while AMs hashrate has stayed relatively flat, dividends have fallen slightly, and AM has taken some money out of dividends to fund future hardware.

IMO, AMs share price is VERY undervalued at current levels, Friedcat is one of the only mining operators who has consistently delivered if not over-delivered on his promises to the Bitcoin community and shareholders. AM has been consistently selling out of hardware exceptionally fast and will soon have next gen chips for mining and for sale, not to mention the new franchising business model which will allow AM to effectively have a greater percentage of the network than what would normally be possible for a typical mining operation.

Going to keep accumulating shares at these levels; enjoying the ~48% yield at current prices while the share price continues it's volatile course.
11  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: August 22, 2013, 01:40:11 PM
Vycid, no one cares about your 'thoughts' or disillusions. ASICMINER does not need to expand outside of their core competencies to be incredibly successful and there isn't really any valid reason to with the BTC market cap so small. ASICMINER is the best in the business of BTC mining and hardware sales and is working on adding another revenue stream through franchising.

If you knew anything about business and start-ups, you'd know that the successful ones focus on what they're best at and continually work on improving that main aspect of their business. I'd much rather have AM focus on what they're best at and not start throwing money that would otherwise be paid as dividends into unproven business strategies/markets.
12  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: August 21, 2013, 02:12:32 PM
Seems like there are quite a few ASICMINER shareholders following the mantra of "buy high, sell low" ... One "low" dividend has prompted a steep sell-off (unjustified IMO).

Going to wait until the dust settles to pick up some cheap shares, just like I've done in the past (last time was when BTC price dipped into the mid $60 range)..
13  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER Speculation Thread on: August 21, 2013, 02:09:00 PM
Wow, wasn't expecting this to fall this far...

Welcome to panic mode. Rationality flies out the window.

yep, I am not selling my shares for this cheap, it's not worth it.  I can't believe people are willing to sell for this.

The irrationality of these markets is great for investing/trading... People are panic selling and driving prices down considerably because of ONE "low" dividend.

If you assumed 0.0122 was going to be the new average, which many people seem to be doing, that would still equate to a 22% yield at a 2.90 share price. If we take the YTD average dividends though we're looking at approximately 43.5% yield at current share prices.

I think there will be some more sells throughout the day to shake out the weak hands/speculators... Hoping to pick up some more cheap shares after trading settles down a little.
14  Economy / Speculation / Re: New parabolic rise ahead! on: August 19, 2013, 02:40:08 PM
There is even a bear right on the chart, that's a clear signal that bitcoin will crash.

LOL!

But I'm not sure how to interpret your graph, as there is a debate among scientists if giant panda is actually a bear or a raccoon. DNA analysis show more similarities to bears, but let's hope they were wrong this time, so bitcoin can still go up...

He's eating green candles, definitely bearish...

lol'd
15  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: August 19, 2013, 02:37:41 PM
I'm seeing share prices drop on most securities across the board, are people cashing in due to the USD/BTC price going up?

Seems like a definite possibility, though it really doesn't make much sense IMO. A higher USD/BTC price makes the mining stocks more valuable. It's fine though, I'll keep buying and enjoying the 34% yield at current prices..  Grin
16  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: August 17, 2013, 06:53:30 PM
Looks like a lot of orders came on the book between 110 and 105.
17  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: August 16, 2013, 06:43:06 PM
Basic math shows how overpriced the shares are: there are ~10million more bitcoins left to be mined over the next century or so. Even if ASICMiner were able to maintain 20% of the total network hashrate throughout that period (breathtakingly unlikely), they'd only mine 2million BTC. Split between the 400,000 shares that creates an upper limit of 5BTC/share.

You did forget the hardware sales


You forgot 2 things:

1) If a company is selling shovels to those looking for gold. Can the company make more than all the gold that exists in the world? Obviously YES. AsicMiner is selling shovels. I saw someone try and estimate the amount of hashing by asicminer hardware (sales + it's own) - i think it was more like 30% of total network speed.
2) Transaction fees. When bitcoin takes off we should see transaction fees drastically increase, thus the about 'mined' is infinite.

This is correct. If Bitcoin is to succeed, then AM will likely be around for a long time. If there is mass adoption of Bitcoin, block rewards could be higher than they are now.

Does anyone else find it interesting that the share price of ASICMINER has seemed to move inversely proportional to the price of BTC? Perhaps this is do to the recent string of IPOs and people looking to make a 'quick buck'. IMO, ASICMINER is a leveraged bet on the success of BTC and if BTC is successful then ASICMINER is vastly undervalued at current levels.
18  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: August 13, 2013, 08:45:50 PM
If I wanted to move some direct shares to an exchange (BTCT for example), how would I go about doing this?

Friedcat is a busy guy, hoping to not have to PM him.
19  Economy / Securities / Re: [HAVELOCK] [AM1] ASICMINER Full-Share PT - No Mgmt Fees! Import/Export! on: August 09, 2013, 09:23:09 PM
Is the site down? Can't access it Sad
20  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: August 06, 2013, 03:08:29 PM
The price of the Asicminer shares will go to 10 in one year  Smiley
Why should it?
An APR of 30% is already low, would you accept 12%?


Only in bitcoin land would a 30% yield be considered low. And sure, for a miner you need to make your money back rapidly before more miners appear, but AM has shown themselves to be a fairly reliable company so far, with a longer term perspective. In the ordinary investment world 30% is unheard of. Literally, unheard of. That that sort of payout is available from AM shows the amount of risk that is still present in the Bitcoin world, and more importantly, shows how thinly traded it even its most heavily traded issue actually is.

Due to the finite nature of bitcoin rewards (lets not mention transaction fees), there is certainly a cap on AM's value, but I think it could justifiably be a bit higher than 4 BTC /sh if they're able to regain their previous posture with the rollout of their 2nd gen chips.

This... LOL @ people thinking 30% APR is "low" Try taking look at the highest yielding dividend stocks and maybe you'll see the value proposition currently offered by holding ASICMINER shares.
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