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1  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 14, 2024, 04:08:48 PM
I have my doubts that there is any necessity for me to respond to any of your particular pieces of analysis, since I am not really sure if you are saying anything with any level of conviction, except that maybe you consider the odds for having a downward correction are greater than they had been earlier because of a failure to break to the upside - yet you are not even saying that with any level of meaningful conviction or specifics - except that certain lower levels might happen - and surely, I am willing to stick with a bet that I had earlier stated, which is that the BTC price will likely not get lower than 20% higher than the 200-WMA.. and sure yeah there could be breakouts to the top or the bottom, and I had largely just been proclaiming $55k to $82k to be no man's land.. causing a certain increased level of probability that the breakout is going to be towards the top rather than the bottom, but it is not like certainty, so maybe slightly greater than 55% odds.. add 2.5% odds since we are generally in a bull market and add an additional 2.5% odds since we are in no man's land, but that still only gets us to 45/55 rather than 50/50 odds or something other than that, and so that might not even give us anything that is bettable.. even you did not come back to suggest some kind of potential bettable terms when we dropped below $60k the last time.. around April 29 that lasted ONLY slightly less than 3 days.

I mean I can hardly see any changes to the conditions from the mere fact that BTC prices have largely been bouncing around at the top of the range between about $60k and $70k for the past 3.5  months-ish and yeah there may or may not be further consolidation.. and it hardly matters except that I am a wee bit surprised that we are hanging out in no man's land for quite longer than I thought, but it is not even like the upward's inclinations of noman's land and/or the greater chances of less resistance give any certainties regarding what might end up happening, since we recognize and appreciate that less likely scenarios can end up playing out, and less likely scenarios end up playing out a lot of times, which make them hardly tradeable and hardly bettable, except maybe considering some of the extremes might become bettable, for example if you are going to want to bet me that the BTC price is going to get below 20% above the 200-WMA prior to the end of 2025, or if you want to bet me that BTC prices are not going to end up touching somewhere between $120k and $180k in 2024, or if you want to bet me that the high price for 2025 is not going to be higher than the high price for 2024. .and yeah I don't have great confidence in ay of these propositions, except that I would be willing to bet them in terms of their being greater than 50/50.. and even with that I understand that I might not end up winning the bet, even though they seem bettable from my perspective and it would be interesting if someone, like you, might be willing to take the opposite side of such potential bets..

Correct, at present with price range between $60K and $70K, I'm not particularly convinced about any considerable downside or upside for that matter, until the range is broken at least - which could take another few months at current pace. Even if I'm more 55/45 siding with downside. You're suggestion of a bet of not reaching 20% higher than the 200 WMA is an interesting one though, as at present that would be a correction to $43,090 (35909 x 1.2), as opposed to sub $40K, which is approximately the area I imagine support would be found given a deeper correction. Based on current linear trajectory, that would be around $40K for the MA within the next few months (*at current prices that is), which would mean reaching $48K at +20%. Although notably the trajectory is currently set to slow it's pace in approx 10 weeks as it starts to knock out $20K to 60K candles, this wouldn't take effect (*) until mid August. So overall, that'd be a lot fairer bet for me that the idea of sub $40K by the end of the year, quite clearly. I'm otherwise confident that price in 2024 will be higher than 2024, so no bet from me regarding that. But also, as referenced, until we're back down to $60K then I only really see further range-bound accumulation and distribution.

Overall my general theory is that if $60K support is broken again, that $50K levels won't hold and we'll return to volume support / opening price around $40K, or otherwise around the 200 WMA if it catches up by then. I'd like to believe the theory that ETF buyers are strong hands, but given we've already seen outflows during bearish price movements (even if not very consistently), I suspect the floodgates of sellers will open below $60K. As even if you bought the ETF at $50K that's still a 25% return, which compared to most other ETFs, it's considerable. For BTC, it's obviously very little.
2  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 13, 2024, 02:36:11 PM
70's now gone?  
You'll never see sub $70K prices ever again.

That did not age well.

70's now gone?  

You'll never see sub $70K prices ever again.

are you doing reverse proudhon here ?  ... unfortunately it doesn't seem to work, just like proudhons predictions

I think it did, given I posted it after price had already dropped below $70K... sometimes I forget sarcasm is lost on the internet  Cheesy



By the way, I saw where you later said that it was a joke, and recall that even though we went down to around $56,500 around April 30, we are still having trouble getting down to some of the lower levels that you had been considering to be so probable.. yet sure, at the same time, we have not yet gotten to $80k or supra $80k numbers either.. so surely interesting times to have had been consolidating mostly between $60k and $70k for around 3.5 months-ish.

Yes, it looks a lot more interesting now after all this consolidation, and increasingly likely the break-out will be definitive once it occurs - ie continue in that direction for months to come once it happens. Price looks pretty indecisive still, given higher bullish and bearish volume candles cancelling themselves out in recent days. Given the low volume, it could certainly go either way from here. I'm still anticipating a continued correction since we've been failing to maintain the previous cycle ATH for so long now, which has never been a problem before in previous cycles, as well as other factors such as failing to continue to the upside from $68-70K levels back in March, which was the mid-cycle top potential, similar to summer 2019, and completely the opposite to December 2020 when price pierced through it with ease at $21K. Now ironically it's around $89K which would be the next target for a mid-cycle correction, but I'd happily concede that at that level a mid-cycle correction is unlikely to play out, so would probably be somewhat irrelevant it seems.

Additionally the miner capitulation hash ribbons post-havling signal last month (like clockwork) suggesting further consolidation/correction rather than immediate upside, which has generally been pretty reliable over the cycles, and so far is playing out even though it's only been a few weeks. So while at present price still looks/structured bullish, above longer-term MAs etc, there are bearish macro factors in play which wasn't the case a few months ago when I was speculating about a correction or consolidation as opposed to immediate further upside. This is nearly always the case with a few months of consolidation within a range at the highs, similar to early 2021 between $50K and $60K, where there were warning signs prior to a 50% correction. Of course we could look back and blame the China ban that was the catalyst, but this is generally irrelevant; the market was fragile enough for a state actor to take advantage, whereas if the market was full-blown bullish it would have barely had any effect on bullish momentum. Naturally a buy signal could otherwise turn this around to parabolic-bullish pretty swiftly like in July 2020, so as I said initially, it could quite easily go either way even if there are bearish warning signs that lack follow through.

Price strength is otherwise flirting with getting rejected from overbought levels, similar to November 2021, which while I don't believe will lead to a "major" correction (ie -75%), it could still lead to a significant correction before a 2025 bull market takes off, as there is a still most of two quarters left in the year, so plenty of time. At least historically, this type of a rejection often leads to a around a 25-35% correction, or alternatively a few months of consolidation (ie on top of the few months we've already had), which doesn't seem like a crazy idea anymore (ie 6 months consolidation). But again this is a case of if price is able to comfortably return to and maintain overbought levels, then there is a lot of room to the upside between an RSI of 70 and one of 90, similar to $35K to $45K move, or $42K to $69K. So generally, there's a lot more reason to be cautious at current prices compared to 3 months ago, even if not quite bearish if price can hold $60K support level. I just personally think price will struggle to do that, as was the case last month, whereas this time around returning to these support levels will be a lot worse, for example breaking the 20 Week MA around $63K has been a reliable signal for a deeper correction to come, and hasn't happened since last year.

It otherwise generally seems likes longer-term OTC sellers are distributing to ETFs, hence the range-bound price right now, given the relatively low spot volume in recent weeks/months, the continued accumulation (overall) from ETFs, and otherwise HODL waves showing longer-term holders taking profits. This seems also pretty clear from number of Bitcoins produced per day vs accumulation from ETFs. It's been said for months that this imbalance would lead to much higher prices (such as yourself), but so far this hasn't happened, and based on the low spot volume, the selling must be coming from elsewhere like OTC. This seems to be the current battle in play, and whether the current price range will be confirmed as an accumulation zone by ETF buyers, or a distribution zone for OTC sellers, isn't possible to assess until it happens.

Aside from how much bitcoin ETFs have aggressively been accumulating (around ~5% of total supply last I checked), I don't doubt that OTC sellers have a lot more than that on offer to sell at current prices if they continue as they have been. So this range could last another few months at this rate, until sellers run out of coins to sell, or otherwise ETFs slow down or stop accumulating. Generally I think it's best to let these whales play games between themselves, and let it play out, as there could be a bear whale / bull whale type of event that happens behind closed doors that would catch a lot of people off guard. So anyone longing or shorting on leverage within this range need to be extremely carefully, already the recent chop is a major warning sign that there is a determined battle between different entities or groups of bulls and bears at present. That might sound like a dramatic or exaggerated analysis of current price movement/range, but bear in mind the bulls are acting transparently via ETF accumulation that's well documented, while OTC bears are far from transparent with their dealings, so in this case I'd say have the slight upper hand, because no-one is really able to track how much they are selling or how much they have to sell.

Obviously this is just my opinion, generally just weighing the odds of the bullish market structure with my interpretation of the bearish warning signs, as well as some analysis of why I think price has been ranging for so long, and why the consolidation could also now continue. Ideally someone would provide another argument for this beyond "price suppression" which is generally a meaningless phrase unless backed up by facts or legitimate theories. Admittedly my scepticism about immediate continued upside has grown over the past few months, because I doubted that price would go much higher, and that a new ATH would be sustainable, based on hypotheticals and speculation, which so far has been the case. The fact price hasn't considerably correction yet is somewhat irrelevant, as I accepted that it would likely take months to play out if it were to occur.
3  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 12, 2024, 08:32:10 PM
70's now gone?  

You'll never see sub $70K prices ever again.

Huh? I see them rn  Cheesy

4  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 12, 2024, 08:14:08 PM
70's now gone?  

You'll never see sub $70K prices ever again.
5  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 22, 2024, 07:00:59 PM
It is possible, but I would place it at less than 50/50, and that was part of the thing that I was getting worked up about either your earlier assertion that we would go to the lower $30ks (from the correction at $49k, remember) or your later assertion that we would go to the mid to upper $30ks from the upper $60ks.. and so those were the points that I had considered to be bettable in terms of my thinking that you were expecting too much of a dip in these here kinds of times.. which also put us back to either going below the 200-WMA or getting pretty damned close to it.. which I also stick by my prediction that we are not going to get within 20% of the 200-WMA in either 2024 or 2025 - and yeah, those are pretty bold claims coming from my camp, but I am willing to stand behind them in terms of my thinking that they are greater than 50% odds, so that if I enter into a 50/50 bet, my odds of winning are greater than my odds of losing... at least at this point in our bitcoin journey. and if the conditions change, I may well prefer to retract my bet.. .. I don't have to stick to such bet, but if you catch me right now, those bet proposals are still on the table... and I think that either one of them would still be fun, even if they end up not being a winner for me.

Your general reasoning is a good reason to consider the bet that's for sure. I was wrong about a deeper correction from $48K, although technically I was never wrong about the idea of $30Ks at upper $60Ks, I simply pointing out that if a top occured from there would likely lead to $30Ks (more likely than finding supporting above that level). But I never said we would top out in the $60Ks, if anything the opposite is true, but it's somewhat beside the point. I was actually more convinced we'd go higher than previous ATH once we got there, even if I still considered a 50% correction as likely (from a new ATH). The issue here is that I'm only willing to consider a bet with at minimum a top formation. Because to put it simply I'm not naive enough to make a bet based on price topping out at X.

The bet for me would be less about whether there will be a correction (that there already is) but how deep the correction could go.

What I believe is more likely to happen isn't necessarily the odds I'd apply, as I'd prefer to stick to the odds that the chart is telling me. Even being 50/50 is a bit of a dubious position, as it's only the 20 DMA that's broken, the shorter-term time-frames remain bullish.

I probably was just getting worked up over the way that I was interpreting the way that you were talking about some of those lower price scenarios as if they had odds that were much greater than 50/50.. Earlier, from my perspective, you seemed to have had been talking about those lower price scenarios as if they had 70-80% odds. .. and yeah, maybe I misread you, but that was how I understood your words, even if you did not assign actual numbers, words also can carry meanings related to likelihood of happening.. .and you may well appreciate that some of us will get on the case of others who are describing fringe scenarios as if they were even close to base case scenarios..   Nothing wrong with being prepared for extremes, even though there are problems to discuss extreme scenarios as if they were base case scenarios..

Yeh probably. I'm not even 60/40 that price goes to $40K either. That would be more like 52/48 if I had to assign random numbers. Probably 55/45 that we reach $50K at least.

So based on Coinbase high of $73,835.57, I make a 50% correction from current high $36,917.79, which I'd be willing to make a bet over given a break of $60K.

I might be willing to consider that bet.. but I find it problematic that you are not willing to enter into such bet unless we get below $60k first.. .. but I must admit it is close to bettable.. even though fuck Coinbase.. We use Bitstamp in these here parts.. why the fuck would any of us want to rely on Coinbase for figuring out our price points for any potential bet when those twats cannot even keep their fucking exchange operating during supposed high volume times.  There is a reason that Buddy is coming at us with Bitstamp prices for the past 10 years or so.., even though he took a break for a few years... (went on strike)

OK Bitstamp instead, sure.

Granted this would only be a further -38% to the downside, but would be -50% from the top, which as you said you don't believe is very unlikely (at least without reaching $80K or higher). But I can understand that if price fell below $60K, maybe you'd increase your odds of reaching around $40K and therefore the bet would no longer be in your favour. But I'm basing this in your initial statement that would remain true even with breaking $60K or $50K for that matter:

I might have to think about it.  It is getting close to bettable, especially if you would be requiring a 50% correction from the current top, which is currently $73,794 on bitstamp and therefore $36,897.. so you would ONLY win if the price dropped at or below $36,897 on Bitstamp... which I am thinking that may well be bettable, even if you would require the BTC price to go below $60k before the bet would trigger otherwise I don't get shit.   Cry Cry Cry Cry  which you should appreciate how that is a little bothersome...

I'm not suggesting we make a bet unless price is around $60K, or has already gone below. Sure this could mean that if price dumped to $55K and failed to recover, there would likely be no bet. But otherwise, below $61.4K I'm interested. $60K was more of a round number reference. As price is finding support again from the 200 MA on 4hr (as anticipated) then I'm not jumping into a bet here for obvious reasons. I'd be better off re-considering around $80K. Bistamp otherwise does provide a considerably lower price requirement, though I understand and respect the desire to stick with this exchange. It's certainly one I'd have to think about, based on breaking $40K but not necessary reaching $37K either.


Another issue is that there are limited ways that I would win the bet, but what about a timeline for the bet or other ways to invalidate the bet?  The bet becomes invalid if the BTC price goes back above $69k?  or you just seem to have too many ways out of not losing the bet.

2024 would be fine for me. Depends on the bet, if it were $40K or $80K that's clear cut I think (even if takes a while). Otherwise 2024 would be fine for me. Assuming I'd lose either way by 2025 that is. As a summary, this is the bet I'd be more willing to take, and I think is fairer for the both of us, based on my previous reasoning that the % difference would be the same going to $40K or $80K from approx $60K.

And would also mean I'm not relying on a precise number to fall to, given that I think -50% is more of a maximum that's likely, and could easily be a few percent off either way. I'd feel pretty daft if price got to $40K but miss $37K in reality. If anything I wonder if this bet would favour you more here, as price could reach $80K before reaching $40K for example... which is a risk I'd have to take here.

Well yeah. you would not be getting quite 50%, and it could be true that the BTC price could barely break below $40k and then not go any further... that is pretty low.. so I am having my doubts, and I think that the bet needs to be that the BTC price has to break $40k it cannot just touch on $40k in order for you to win...especially since you are already making several conditions, but it is still seeming bettable. even if I am barely feeling much greater than 50% odds in terms of the current framing...  it is not like a slam dunk, but it still seems to be within my parameters of a potentially acceptable bet.. despite your lack of commitment to enter right now and you have some additional condition prior to feeling strong enough to enter such bet.

That would be fair, I'd only consider the bet as lower than $40K (even if only by a cent and based on a wick). Given that's ultimately the level you seem convinced confident price won't break. I'm otherwise not considering this a slam dunk bet either, and I wouldn't be willing to bet much on it. It's be more for the lolz and fun rather than any potential satoshi gain. There'd be more fun to be had with offering double or nothing odds to such scenarios as reaching $50K or $70K once the bet is applied (from both sides). Even if it'd mainly be taunting, it's all fun and games.

(With that last part I'd have to consider whether this bet would really be fair after all, and whether simply reaching $40K this year would fairer for me, even if price reached $80K for example)

If the BTC price reached $80k first, and then it later corrected down to sub $40k then you would feel that you should have had been the rightful winner of the bet.  You are trying to make sure you win no matter what?  hahahahaha

I'm just pointing out ways in which I could lose the bet and should consider my options here. Ideally the bet would be reaching $40K in 2024 or not, but I realise even with your confidence in that not happening, that this wouldn't be a favourable bet you, without winning the bet if price reached $80K for example. So just trying to compromise here, even if it's not necessarily in my best interests at all.

I did already suggest that I don't think that the BTC price is going to ever go below $40k again (at least not in 2024 and/or 2025).. which surely I did make a pretty bold claim, but if we bet on something like that, then it may well take some time for the bet to play out, so now you are wanting to change it to some higher number rather than $80k.. so I would not win.. until it got above some higher number and you are finally willing to give up on sub $40k ever being reachable in 2024 or 2025..

2024 would be fine. We can take 2025 off the table here. I wouldn't even feel hard done by if it reached there in 2025, I'd probably have a lot more to be concerned about if that happened.
6  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 22, 2024, 12:33:12 PM
Still you ignored my counters to your bet proposals with some of my own bet proposals - but some of this is looking more in your favor currently.... and so I am a bit surprised by how much consolidating (or the correction down to nearly $60k-ish.. .yet there could still be something bettable in terms of my saying that BTC prices would probably not go below $40k ever again and/or they would not go less than 20% above the 200-WMA in either 2024 or 2025.. and surely I am ONLY considering those as slightly better than 50/50..

My bad, I might had missed your counter offer, but got the impression you weren't interested in the vagueness of a 50% drop in 2024, as per below. As I said before, until there was a top formed/forming, there wouldn't be any bet I'd be willing to make on where a 50% correction came from, as it would be a complete stab in the dark (ie $80K, $100K, etc), only that I think it would in 2024.

so I am potentially giving you pretty good betting terms, versus the vague-ass shit that you had been outlining earlier.. with the 50% drop and blah blah blah. .but without hardly any parameters.. hahahahahaha...

You were wise to not take that bet then Grin

so part of the reason that I said never below $40k is that I doubt that we are likely to get a 50% or greater drop prior to going above $80k... and I might even feel that way all the way up to $160k.. except the problem is that the higher the price, the more chances that we could end up getting a 50% drop if we go up to the price too quickly, and since we were already at around $70k-ish (or was it $72k-ish) when I made that proclamation, I thought that there is almost no way that we could end up going up to $80k too quickly that would end up triggering a 50% drop.  But, hey, I know anything is possible, I am just figuring out some parameters for a 50/50 bet in which I consider the odds are in my favor and how I might be able to distinguish between what we had been saying. and you are currently still anticipating $36k-ish to still be in the cards...and even supposedly to have greater than 50% odds of happening.. at least that has been the way you had been speaking prior to my proposing the bet possibility.

At current price (between $60K and $70K roughly), I'm pretty neutral about whether there will be such a correction from here, or higher levels, like $80K. What I believe is more likely to happen isn't necessarily the odds I'd apply, as I'd prefer to stick to the odds that the chart is telling me. Even being 50/50 is a bit of a dubious position, as it's only the 20 DMA that's broken, the shorter-term time-frames remain bullish.

Not sure if you were asking me, but at present I'd say 50/50 further upside. With $60K breaking I'd be 60/40 for further downside. With $69K breaking to the upside I'd say 60/40 further upside.


On a side note: I'm also slightly surprised that price didn't continue on to $80K after breaking ATH, as there was certainly room for a blow-off style top with maximum overbought conditions. The momentum wasn't on the side of the bulls after all it seems, as it wasn't selling pressure but more so lack of buying pressure (based on volume that was declining since the top rather than increasing/maintaining with sell volume). But with that, and without a blow-off top with high sell volume, it doesn't necessarily put me in better position (in the context of betting on further downside), as price is instead consolidating right now. Neither the bulls nor the bears are showing they have the momentum for either further upside or downside, even if one side will eventually have a breakthrough with this in the near-term. But as referenced, below $60K, I would be 60/40 anticipating further downside over the next few months. Even if market structure isn't in my favour necessarily right now, I acknowledge that GBTC selling probably is at the moment.

So based on Coinbase high of $73,835.57, I make a 50% correction from current high $36,917.79, which I'd be willing to make a bet over given a break of $60K. Granted this would only be a further -38% to the downside, but would be -50% from the top, which as you said you don't believe is very unlikely (at least without reaching $80K or higher). But I can understand that if price fell below $60K, maybe you'd increase your odds of reaching around $40K and therefore the bet would no longer be in your favour. But I'm basing this in your initial statement that would remain true even with breaking $60K or $50K for that matter:

so part of the reason that I said never below $40k is that I doubt that we are likely to get a 50% or greater drop prior to going above $80k

So with this in mind, and a break of $60K (and price around that level as it were), I think me betting on $40K coming first and you on $80K would be a fairer bet no?  That would be 33% in either direction from there. And would also mean I'm not relying on a precise number to fall to, given that I think -50% is more of a maximum that's likely, and could easily be a few percent off either way. I'd feel pretty daft if price got to $40K but miss $37K in reality. If anything I wonder if this bet would favour you more here, as price could reach $80K before reaching $40K for example... which is a risk I'd have to take here.

(With that last part I'd have to consider whether this bet would really be fair after all, and whether simply reaching $40K this year would fairer for me, even if price reached $80K for example)

For sure, you (UnDerDoG81) seem to be inspired to sell based on emotions and possibly greed rather than logic.

Good luck with that.
Seems he has no clue about how the market works and simply relies on the price movement rather than logics behind it, no doubt most persons come to the bitcoin market only during bull run.

Glad, you share insights on this.

Bare in mind that UnDerDoG81 has been the market since 2013, not just during the bull run, so I doubt they are clueless here.

I don't think that's what JJG was implying what you are saying either, only that the decision could be more emotional rather than logic based, which would also make sense if it's based on what he/she feels comfortable with holding, rather than what logically would be the "best" quantity to hold. Being 100% invested is otherwise very greedy, so you can look at this either way (even JJG isn't 100% invested!)
7  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 21, 2024, 07:03:29 PM
Anyone else thinks this is a fake relief rally? I’m
About to make the decision I talked here before to sell 10% of my Bitcoin at certain stages. 69k was the first stage to sell 1%. But I’m ok with 67k right now. I have the feeling we will dump further and stabilize until few months after halving. Would be nice to have some powder to buy back deeper. As I am 100% into bitcoin and have nothing else on the side lol

Yes, but you can take my opinion with a dose of salt as I've been sceptical about this rally since $48K  Tongue

According to Pi Cycle Top, as discussed elsewhere, $70K is either the mid-cycle top (like in 2019, 2016 and 2012), prior to a correction and consolidation, or this is the late-stage top, ie start of full blown bull market, like in 2020, 2017 and 2013. Based on time, I see this as a mid-stage not a late-stage top, especially given this indicator has "factored in" a new ATH being at this mid-stage top, and has previously been the most accurate at identifying these types of tops. This would otherwise be the first time there has been no "mid-stage correction" in Bitcoin's history, so while possible, the argument is that "this time it's different" - which is a fair argument given the introduction of ETFs and new ATH already. But only time will tell whether this is actually true or not, with the recent break of ATH not being enough to justify that speculative opinion as of yet.

More than anything I think ETFs are following the price, not leading it. There has been net inflows on the way up and net outflows on the way down generally speaking, even if they are helping to drive the price in both directions. All it will take is for GBTC to offload the rest of their coins, which may only take a couple of months from here, but until then and seeing net outflows, there remains selling pressure.

Based on price alone, either $69K breaks to the upside and price rallies further, or otherwise $60K breaks to the downside, leaving a pretty sizeable volume gap down to $52K at best, but more realistically $42K to $44K (which would still be a macro higher low). Also within a couple of months the 50 Week MA will be around these prices too, so bullish continuation could start from there quite easily. Based on 200 WMA projection, it should be around $37K by August (that was also a consolidation level) and would be a full -50% haircut, which is about as low as I see price going for now, if the correction lasted 4 months.

I'm otherwise overlooking the shorter-term TA on 4hr, as while price is currently confirming resistance around $68K (bearish trending 50 MA and ichimoku cloud at volume point of control), this could all still be broken with ease after another re-test of the 200 MA that previously supported the price perfectly (as expected in strong uptrends) and is currently around $62K. Too early to tell comes to mind here.

Thanks! Since I have no clue about trading and reading charts, this is helpful. What I have a clue about (or experience in) are the fake rallies after some “good news” whales use to create fomo. And that Jerome Powell news from yesterday was the perfect reason for whales to create another fake pump just do dump very hard later. They did this so many times that I’m so sick of this strategy. But of course there is always the chance that “this time it’s different”. Well I missed to sell at 67-68k. Now I won’t sell at 65-66k. Either I wait for another small pump or I take my coins off Binance and go into hodl mode again.

Just be aware that selling around ATH is historically a very risky strategy. But also, depends on your exposure how much your selling etc. If you're 100% invested, then sure, you could be overexposed here, even if price were to go to the upside, you wouldn't be "losing" much by holding 90%. Especially if you'd feel more comfortable having some dry powder for a potential correction.

Often I think it's less about whether price is more likely to go up or down, but what you feel more comfortable with, or which scenario you'd prefer to be. Ie, would you prefer to have 10% capital for a potential correction, or prefer to be 100% in rather than 90% if there were further upside? That's the real question here. To me that'd be a no brainier, as I'm not as greedy as I used to be, but everyone is different.

...but what you REALLY think? Surely, it could up or down, as always.
What's the probabilities, as @JJG likes to post from time to time?
If bitcoin is 37K by August, all ETF holders will be out of it and ETF "project" crashes and burns.
ETF investors are not accustomed to more than 50% haircuts in a few months.
They will be out and stay out.

Not sure if you were asking me, but at present I'd say 50/50 further upside. With $60K breaking I'd be 60/40 for further downside. With $69K breaking to the upside I'd say 60/40 further upside. Not massively swaying in either direction here and from a trading perspective this is very much in a "no trade zone" when inbetween support and resistance. Hence emphasis on too early tell. But also if you're not willing to sell below $60K (for obvious reasons), then you'd have to make a decision before then. Not gonna lie, some of the best analysts are suggesting that the cycle is over now with ETFs entering the space, which while I generally agree with, I don't believe it will be fully realised until GBTC selling is resolved. Either that, of net inflows returns to positive again, which again above $69K would be quite likely I think.

As for the idea that ETF investors will jump ship if price corrected in half, I think the opposite is true. They got in knowing price could correct 50% or further, and are instead much more likely to double down at a considerable discount, after some consolidation and price stability (ie not buying the dip per say), compared to retail who are known for panic selling. I don't think they are naive or going to be quick sellers, but instead they will happily sit back and let prices fall until strength returns to the market, as they have done this week, as is the norm for ETF investing, in order to buy strength not weakness. I think JJG might even agree with me to some degree on this point that ETF investors are more likely to be strong hands, that I'm slowly but surely coming round to, especially given the lack of selling over the recent correction. Even if this doesn't change the situation with GBTC outflows at present.

Obviously this is speculation that ETF holders will be strong hands, as is that they will be weak hands, when neither can be proven yet. But that's all we have to go on for now: speculation.
8  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 21, 2024, 03:57:49 PM
Anyone else thinks this is a fake relief rally? I’m
About to make the decision I talked here before to sell 10% of my Bitcoin at certain stages. 69k was the first stage to sell 1%. But I’m ok with 67k right now. I have the feeling we will dump further and stabilize until few months after halving. Would be nice to have some powder to buy back deeper. As I am 100% into bitcoin and have nothing else on the side lol

Yes, but you can take my opinion with a dose of salt as I've been sceptical about this rally since $48K  Tongue

According to Pi Cycle Top, as discussed elsewhere, $70K is either the mid-cycle top (like in 2019, 2016 and 2012), prior to a correction and consolidation, or this is the late-stage top, ie start of full blown bull market, like in 2020, 2017 and 2013. Based on time, I see this as a mid-stage not a late-stage top, especially given this indicator has "factored in" a new ATH being at this mid-stage top, and has previously been the most accurate at identifying these types of tops. This would otherwise be the first time there has been no "mid-stage correction" in Bitcoin's history, so while possible, the argument is that "this time it's different" - which is a fair argument given the introduction of ETFs and new ATH already. But only time will tell whether this is actually true or not, with the recent break of ATH not being enough to justify that speculative opinion as of yet.

More than anything I think ETFs are following the price, not leading it. There has been net inflows on the way up and net outflows on the way down generally speaking, even if they are helping to drive the price in both directions. All it will take is for GBTC to offload the rest of their coins, which may only take a couple of months from here, but until then and seeing net outflows, there remains selling pressure.

Based on price alone, either $69K breaks to the upside and price rallies further, or otherwise $60K breaks to the downside, leaving a pretty sizeable volume gap down to $52K at best, but more realistically $42K to $44K (which would still be a macro higher low). Also within a couple of months the 50 Week MA will be around these prices too, so bullish continuation could start from there quite easily. Based on 200 WMA projection, it should be around $37K by August (that was also a consolidation level) and would be a full -50% haircut, which is about as low as I see price going for now, if the correction lasted 4 months.

I'm otherwise overlooking the shorter-term TA on 4hr, as while price is currently confirming resistance around $68K (bearish trending 50 MA and ichimoku cloud at volume point of control), this could all still be broken with ease after another re-test of the 200 MA that previously supported the price perfectly (as expected in strong uptrends) and is currently around $62K. Too early to tell comes to mind here.
9  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 21, 2024, 01:37:43 PM
Quite impressive to have a huge green candle yesterday.

The ETF inflows is close to zero and the outflows (GBTC) is high.
Shows the stupidity of people I guess, when prices were soaring, people were buying ETFs like crazy. Now, a week later when BTC is cheaper, they are nowhere to be seen..




Wasn't expecting that, would of thought inflows were positive based on the buying pressure. 3.8K Bitcoin is a fair amount of corn to scoop up from ETFs. Reclaiming $69K will likely bring back the ETF volume imo though, this would help to nullify the fake-out ATH scenario with a bullish weekly wick. Either that or $68K get's confirmed as a resistance level for the time being. This is otherwise the first real test of short-term resistance since $40K levels based on cloud, MAs and volume, so I can understand with the hesitancy from ETF investors on this one, given they quite clearly aren't in the market to buy dips.
10  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 20, 2024, 03:51:09 PM
To the substance: I don't understand the obsession what @ivomm, @BitcoinBunny and @dragonvslinux display with regards to GBTC.

Like, who gives a f-k as long as the peg is maintained? So far it has been very orderly and helped inflows to other ETFs.

The only relevance to me is based on potential selling pressure, as I explained above. We've seen consistent outflows in the past 2 months and it's fair to assume that will continue (irrespective of price), until it no longer does or slows down to become insignificant. Naturally these outflows weren't that relevant when the overall inflows of ETFs outweighed the outflows when price was trending upwards, especially when a lot can be attributed to GBTC holders moving to other ETFs. However this week, similar to January correction, the outflows are again outweighing the inflows. It means that GBTC is significant when it comes to selling pressure, at least at present. Even if just one of many factors including miners reserves (that last I heard they hold 1.82m BTC), liquidiations, even exchange holdings, etc.

Your questions in general seem better directed to GBTC holders, rather than myself and potentially others. I actually agree with what you're saying overall though. Why do holders care if GBTC is holding it's peg, why bother move to Blackrock just because the fee is currently lower (when next year it could be same as GBTC anyway). But this "why the outflows" question isn't relevant to me, only the data, that shows outflows.

[...] If anything, the lack of inflows at current price is more of a concern in the immediate term, with Blackrock recording their lowest inflows to date of only $75m, compared to an average of $277m. Especially when the record of $849m was made at $70K prices. [...]


We had an 11% drop yesterday and non of the ETF's had outflows. Inflows even. Not sure how that possibly can be 'a concern in the immediate term'. Seems the ETF buyers know what they are getting into.

Overall, there was $362 million outflows, following $154m on Monday. You're right that except for GBTC none of the ETF's had outflows. This is somewhat irrelevant if the overall sum of inflows and outflows ETFs is negative (selling pressure), especially with GBTC holding $26 billion in Bitcoin still, selling an average of $277m per day. If not obvious, the inflows from other ETFs needs to be higher than the outflows from GBTC, in order for there to be overall positive inflows (buying pressure). Cherry picking the data and ignoring GBTC, while relevant to new investor interest, isn't relevant to buying/selling pressure at present.

The concern should be obvious. If there are more outflows than inflows as there has been this week, then there is selling presure from ETFs (overall), not buying pressure. And for the avoidance of doubt, there has been a very strong correlation between overall inflows with price increase and overall outflows with price decrease, so this buying/selling pressure is far from theoretical, even if not tested long-term yet.

The reference to "immediate term" should be obvious; during the period where GBTC is offloading Bitcoin. Without that, the inflows would still be positive despite the price correction, so isn't applicable long-term.
11  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 20, 2024, 02:45:54 PM
Isn't it $40b? It shouldn't take that long I don't think, maybe another month or two? Especially if the selling continues to increase.

Can someone remind me how much Bitcoin GBTC had to begin with, how much they've sold already? Want to calculate what the timeframe is looking like.

Ironically without GBTC outflows, there basically are no outflows, even if lower inflows at present, which speaks volumes...

The sooner that GBTC is flushed out the market the better.

At the time of approval of the spot ETFs, Grayscale had just over 600 000 BTC, and according to the data I am looking at today, it has about 368 000 BTC - which means that their bag is still quite full. It seems that a few more months will pass until they sell everything they have planned.


Source

So according to CoinTelegraph, it'd be around 4 months (though the wording "current rate" shouldn't be considered accurate here):

Quote from: CoinTelegrah
If its outflows continue at the current rate, it could be out of assets by as soon as late July.

By my calculations, and current average selling, it'd be more like 3 months (26.6 billion (total) / 274.2 million (average per day) = 97 days). Based on the actual current rate of this week's average (so far) of 542.5 per day, it would actually take 49 days. So somewhere between 1.6 months ("current rate") and 3.2 months (average so far). That puts the estimated range as May 8 to June 23. The middle of that range is May 30*.

The fact GBTC is recording record outflows is a good thing however and should be encouraged. The sooner they sell their coins, the better, it is literally just a matter of time. If anything, the lack of inflows at current price is more of a concern in the immediate term, with Blackrock recording their lowest inflows to date of only $75m, compared to an average of $277m. Especially when the record of $849m was made at $70K prices. Price has dropped -15% since then and remains at a 10% discount. Where did all the ETF buyers go? It gives the impression they only want to buy in big amounts on the way up, not on the way down (buying strength not weakness), as I suspected might happen. It also shows that GBTC holders are not currently moving their investments to other ETFs, but instead to cash to put it in simple terms (at least this week). This is only based on two days of data, even if it's very similar to Jan correction outflows. Similarly ETF data is only 2 months old (mostly during an uptrend as well), so is too early to tell whether investors will be buying down as well as up.

*Probably should be noted that it's unlikely 100% of investors will flee GBTC, so the end date for continuous outflows could be much sooner
12  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is Bitcoin bottom there yet? Fear & Greed, Pi Cycle Top / Bottom on: March 19, 2024, 05:26:28 PM
For sure, 2022 was a bear year. For me, 2024 is supposed to be a consolidation year (from the 2022 bear and 2023 recovery).
The noise from Bitcoin Spot ETF applications, Grayscale won lawsuit against SEC, appearance of Black Rock changed a lot. Without them, we probably have Bitcoin lower than $50,000, not a new all time high before halving.

Yes, this I agree with and have maintained as an opinion since the ETF. For now, the ETFs will follow the market, not the other way around. At least until most Bitcoin held long-term is in ETFs rather than self-custody.

Quote
The fact we've massively overshot the recovery to new ATH doesn't change much for me.
This is an expensive question and also lesson for many people. They naively think this time will be different, but the market, the psychology of market participants are not different. So mostly we don't have any different time.

This time it still could be different, and arguably already has been different. That of making an ATH prior to the halving which has never happened before. But I think price aside, the dyanmics of the 4 year cycle will still play out, especially since the current recovery has been over 12 months, meaning there is a lot of room for 3-9 months of consolidation, starting with a correction.

Quote
Maybe you meant 2020 as the comparison...
Nope. I actually meant 2020 (the time this thread was created) and this year, when we surprisingly have a new all time high. I did it to make a funny question only.

Well you said 2022, not 2020, so wasn't that funny  Tongue

I agree that to compare two cycles, it makes more sense to compare 2024 and 2020.

Even if you compare to 2024 to 2016, there's not a lot of difference. Namely a correction followed by correction prior to and after the halving.
13  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 19, 2024, 05:21:48 PM
I feel like the halving correction is now upon us as people will be scared and taking profits

Will never make sense to me…
Having fear for the halving…
IMHO it’s a price increase instead of decrease situation.

I don't think it's fear at, but since 2016 there have been considerable corrections/consolidation prior to and after the havling. Most notably, no upside immediate prior of after.

Whether that happens this time around is a different story, but history often repeats. Personally I think it's more about miners selling prior to switching off.
14  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 19, 2024, 12:39:49 PM
Barry fcking Shillbert continues selling thousands of coins every day.

$20 billion+  Bitcoin bag ready to be dumped.

Going back to hibernation for a loooong time just to skip coming soul crushing bloodbath.

Isn't it $40b? It shouldn't take that long I don't think, maybe another month or two? Especially if the selling continues to increase.

Can someone remind me how much Bitcoin GBTC had to begin with, how much they've sold already? Want to calculate what the timeframe is looking like.

Ironically without GBTC outflows, there basically are no outflows, even if lower inflows at present, which speaks volumes...

The sooner that GBTC is flushed out the market the better.
15  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is Bitcoin bottom there yet? Fear & Greed, Pi Cycle Top / Bottom on: March 19, 2024, 12:19:01 PM
Two years and now we are back, but with a different market, it's bullish now.

The question now, in 2024 is different than in 2022

For sure, 2022 was a bear year. For me, 2024 is supposed to be a consolidation year (from the 2022 bear and 2023 recovery).

The fact we've massively overshot the recovery to new ATH doesn't change much for me.

Maybe you meant 2020 as the comparison...

Is the market reached to its Top yet?   Cheesy

Too early to tell, price could easily find support around $60K and return to new ATH. It all depends on ETF inflows at this point, more than anything. Technical analysis will confirm either way, but it will likely be a lagging indicator to some degree.  Namely, whether ETF inflows will outpace outflows, regarding GBTC selling. This wasn't the case in the correction from $48K when we saw more outflows, but with ETFs so fresh, it wasn't possible to make much of an assessment. Now we see another outflow day (though not major outflows compared to the major inflows we have seen), I suspect the inflows will be higher when trending up, and the outflows will be higher when trending down, at least until GBTC is flushed out the system. This would also be pretty usual for ETF activity of buying strength as opposed to weakness. There otherwise isn't a lot of GBTC left, but there is a enough that needs to be shifted. This backlog needs to be cleared out imo for a healthy uptrend, even if that only takes another month or two based on current holding and outflows.

Quote
The Pi Cycle Top is the most popular Bitcoin cycle top calling indicator that exists.

And for good reason, it was 1 day off from the top in April 2021 and between 1 and 3 days for every top before it.

But before that cross can happen, price needs to stay above the 350 DMA*2 priced at $70,400 and increasing.

It has been stiff resistance in every cycle.

The first touch of the Moving Average in a cycle has typically been the mid-top (purple arrows), but with price making new ATHs, this seems to be a late-stage retest.

Late-stage retests are much quicker and come before the true cycle top parabola.

This cycle still has plenty of room for growth!

If you want to look for more details, zoom in and zoom out, you can have a live chart with Lookintobitcoin.com.

What do you think?

That's an interesting chart not gonna lie. I had never considered these "mid-cycle" top signals, such as 2012, 2016 and 2019.

However there's something notably wrong about the analysis painted over this. It's assuming the first test of the 350 DMA*2 is the late stage top, as opposed to the mid-stage, as per every cycle. While it could be, we have never had a late stage top (ie, beginning of bull market) without a mid-stage. Secondly, just because the mid-stage came in 2019 last cycle, it has also previously been in 2012 and 2016, based on the 4 year cycle, it stands to reason that this is the mid-stage top. Note how the late stage top came late 2020 and early 2013 & 2017, as opposed to early 2020. So we're about 10 months off for this imo. Hence we've never seen the late stage top leading to a bull market pre-halving, so there is that as well, for those who still consider the 4 year cycle in tact despite the new ATH (a view I still subscribe to at least based on time).

I've otherwise been expecting a mid-stage top with a significant correction of around -50%, taking 3-9 months, since $48K (0.618 fib retracement level), even if price reached $80K etc. In hindsight, this chart would of been useful to see where a mid-stage top would more likely be. Interestingly, top cycle top indicator was the only reliable one in late 2021, compared to all the rest that pointed to further upside, so it shouldn't be ignored as random or otherwise. Either way, I'd say the chart is accurate in the sense that this is either the start of the bull market, or we're looking at a mid-stage considerable correction (in time and price).

Quote
But before that cross can happen, price needs to stay above the 350 DMA*2 priced at $70,400 and increasing.

This sums it up nicely. It lacks confirmation it's a late-stage top, at the moment it's speculative. I'm not sure what the confirmation of a mid-stage top would be, but personally it'd be breaking the current "immediate term" uptrend, proabably around $60K higher low, then we can see how strong the support is around $40K to $45K. Most people seem certain that we will never see $50K again which is worrying. Personally I think there is a reasonable chance, especially if this week confirms a new ATH fake-out similar to 2021 and $60K foesn't hold as support, as there's very weak volume support in between, ETFs aside.

Will consider making a poll/topic when/if we reach $60K to see if the sentiment is returning to new ATH or $50K. I suspect most people won't believe a correction is happening until it's already happened.
16  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 15, 2024, 12:37:46 PM
What the hell is going on with these dumps? An effort by certain forces to keep the price low or just normal selling? Seems kind of orchestrated to me, 2 decent recoveries then smackdowns, I haven't seen that kind of price action for a while. I guess it could just be all the degen future traders. Anyway clearing out the weak hands around the former ATH is probably a good thing.

Pretty sure this is "usual" selling, the momentum has slowed down since $60K/March, around $800m long liquidations in past two days, and now wicked off 20 DMA around $66K, which is basically the first level of real support (and hasn't been testing since late Feb when price bounced off it). Price still looks bullish above $60K, even if there could be concern over a fake-out high at that level, it's too early to tell.

I think sometimes we forget that even in late 2020, after reaching close to ATH, there was still a couple of weeks of consolidation and wicks to the downside (upto -16%, similar to last week), especially when in considerably overbought territory like we were back then and are still in now. Would of been better to see the correction prior to new ATH rather than after, but you get what you're given.

Otherwise seems very reasonable and appropriate for ATH leverage traders to get rekt  Grin

Ever notice how with every dip the MSM tries to attribute it to some news?

So what's this dip? The news that Craig Wrong is not Satoshi?  Cheesy

Would have thought this would be good news to be honest!
17  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 09, 2024, 09:21:29 PM
Not too long of a reply today  Smiley

The red bit is almost exciting.

It is not completely speculation as in a guessing game

Speculation isn't a guessing game, it's based on theories without proper evidence to back it up.
Hence: when a theory is untested, it's speculation, as simple as that (whether accurate or not).

I am not quite sure what you mean by believe/denial stage.

I was thinking of this chart as a representation of that.

You believe and I could be in denial.
Yeah, but I don't really care either way.

Lol, that's fair enough.

I am just saying what I think will happen.  You already bet on down and then you seem to be investing more than warranted into that.  I don't tend to get so attached to short term price moves... I just get a bit of an inclination that the odds of going up in no man's land becomes closer to 60/40 rather than 50/50.. and so it might not even be a great difference in the odds, so I hardly even change anything that I tend to normally do, even though I might talk about the ideas of less resistance when in noman's land, even though there could be a lot of battles and even a lot of rapid movement due to inability to keep BTC on the order books... but still does not mean that the trend is anything other than UPpity.. .. with slightly increased odds of up rather than down.

I'm betting more on up than down here, but sure, with capital on stand by I'm certainly not 100% long, as I usually am in fairness. The whole structure just all seems a bit "iffy" to me, not much else. I never had this feeling in Bitcoin before, even when it dropped to $15.5K, sure I thought that it could reach $12K by the end of the year, but otherwise the whole idea of a down year, a recovery year, a consolidation year and an up year was all very much in tact, despite the price changes. It's simply the current price vs time that I'm not convinced by, not much else, not any bearish signs in the market that's for sure.

Since understanding Bitcoin in 2017, the whole 4-year cycle gave me a lot of faith, as it was something that could be trusted and relied upon, especially given the reasoning for it's existence ie the halving. Sure, it wouldn't tell you where the top or bottom was, and that was never the point of it either, but it would be able to tell you whether you're in a bear year or a bull year for example. My summary is, that I think we are still in a consolidation year - until this is no longer the case - and that means some sideways action at minimum, or otherwise a correction in order to build momentum for 2025. Similar to 2020 basically, minus the crash.

The main issue I have is that we've passed the point of no return based on historical data, and that a macro top is coming soon enough (long before 2025), one that leads to a year-long bear market. This I don't believe, not with the halving this year etc, therefore I don't think we'll have a multi-year bull market if we are close to creating a macro top already, which I agree would be north of $100K. If we do, then so be it, the Bitcoin cycle is destroyed and it all becomes unpredictable, leaving only holding left as a reasonable strategy, at least until more data and price action becomes available.

I agree that we might have a crazy couple of years, but I still get the sense of going up for the next 18 months or so... and yeah, there could be various places to reassess along the way, and yeah, you could be correct that the top plays out more quickly than expected.  Seems like a big so what to me.  I am not changing very much that I do based on if the top might end up in 2024 versus 2025.

This is simply where we differ then; I don't believe price is likely to go up for another 18 months. It'd be great if it did, but given the year-long rally that has already occurred, that'd be a total of 2.5 year bull trend, which I don't find very realistic right now. Of course anything is possible, I'm not against speculating that this is possible either, but simply that I'm struggling to find the evidence of why this would happen.

The main thing for me is that I expect the 200-WMA to continue to move up and yeah, maybe every 6 months I might need to adjust what I had placed in [urlhttps://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719591#msg58719591]my entry-fuck you status chart[/url] to be more or less conservative than the numbers that I had already placed therein.  I already have to adjust the short term to be less conservative.

Sure, this is partially when I think a low level of support would be more likely around $35K if a correction occurs, because already it's going to be there in a couple of months now, and I don't think price would drop in half much sooner than that if it were to do so. It's also likely to be above $40K by the end of the year, which ironically last year was my target for a post-halving consolidation price, so that remains unchanged for now.

I am prepared for either direction, and I hardly give any shits about either direction, especially since this UPpity is a bit premature.
Yeh, this is kind of the point I'm trying to make. If it's premature for a full blown bull market, then it's likely something else will plug that time gap in the meantime.

Premature does not mean that the buy support is not going to keep up with the premature upward movements in price.  I have no clue, but it seems that there is more than enough current buy pressure that likely needs to cause the price to 2x or 3x from here in order to get into a more sustainable place.

In all honestly, I'm willing to come around to these ideas a lot more after the halving, once enough miners switch off and the network corrects. If price doesn't correct or consolidate alongside the correction of hash rate, then sure, 2-3x becomes an easy milestone, and the initial effects of the halving would be unlikely to negatively effect price, whether that be by decline or more "stalling" the price, like in 2020.

At the moment, I don't see any reason that there won't be the usual significant decline in hash rate, based on current metrics and historic data, and while I've never been someone to suggest shorting the price based on this correction (I know I won't be), I'm still aware that it leads to a correction/consolidation, as I've stated many times I'm pretty sure. So my opinion will likely change post-halving as well.

Bitcoin does not tend to do fake out highs after 2 years of consolidation.. but yeah, sure anything can happen.

This is a fair argument we can both agree on. It never has in fact, even if it remains possible.

(Baring in mind until 2021, Bitcoin had never had a fake-out ATH either, until it did...)

If are trying to carve out a potential bet then we probably would bet on the correction that you are expecting rather than if there is going to be a top or when the top is going to be and then the correction from the supposed top.. I don't know.. There could be something bettable if you are saying that the BTC price will go below $30k in the next year... that would probably be bettable.  

I said $30K from $48K, I quite clearly said around $35K as a low level of support from $70K (simply as this is -50%). Spoiler alert, I'll likely say $40K as support from $80K  Smiley

So you are  saying that if the price goes up to $100k before the halvening or some other specific time that you consider to be too soon, then we will get a 50% correction from that and then get stuck in some kind of range for a year or for the rest of 2024?  Seems like a lot of legs to that kind of potential bet... we probably would need to narrow it down to numbers (rather than percentages) if we were going to make it bettable from my perspective.

I generally think 2024 will be a consolidation of price between the move from $15.5K and X, whereby X is based on the high of 2024, that is currently at $70K, but could be $80K, $100K, etc. So that means some sort of -50% from X, which from my perspective isn't possible to bet on, because there is the unknown variable of X. If price were to get rejected from here, and break below $50K, then sure, I'd be more willing to consider some bet about testing $35K before the end of the year. But until then, there isn't anything for me to bet on. Maybe you were under the impression I was short because I took profits, but simply I'm neutral by maintaining a hodl position and removing a mid-term trade that achieved the anticipated target (the fact it exceeded the target becomes irrelevant here, for what I consider to be obvious reasons).

Often the best bet to have is NO BET, which is more of less my current situation you could argue based on recent positioning, even though I'm approximately 60% long you could say, but this is based on a hodl position from 2018-2020 that I quite frankly don't consider as a position nor trade, so is somewhat irrelevant. Being in cash is a no bet scenario, not long nor short. But otherwise, if you're willing to consider a bet based on X (being an ATH of 2024) and X/2 being the price target, then I'd actually consider it. Obviously these aren't specific numbers right now, but by the end of 2024 they will be...

Oh gawd.. you want me to look it up?  It was wen you were going on about your having had sold on the way up around $40k and blah blah blah.. about our being on the way down and guys will have to decide whether to sell on the way down... blah blah blah..    You might not have had specifically told guys to sell, but close enough in my interpretation of what you were going on about.

Yes please! If that's the interpretation I gave, then I'd like to avoid others making the mistake of interpreting my words like that again. Even if it involves a boring disclaimer for noobs.

Especially the idea of selling on the way down, that doesn't sound like me at all. Probably the idea that others would likely sell on the way down, sure, but not suggesting others do...

In summary: I didn't tell others to sell then, that was just your interpretation, which already seems wildly out of touch with the reality of what I said to be frank with you.

I'll leave it to the speculators to assign random % chances to certain price targets, as if the percentages are meaningful rather than plucked out of a degen hat  Wink

Again, if you had been suggesting the price to go down, then I would imagine that you are assigning a greater than 50% odds to that. unless you specify otherwise... so sometimes you don't have to assign an exact number to have some number that is implied from words.. including when sometimes (or frequently) guys speak in terms of absolutes, which surely have percentage ramifications merely through words.

Again, this comes down to assumption. If I believe X is likely/possible, the correlation isn't always that I am weighted or positioned for X. I don't feel the need to regurgitate everyone else saying that Bitcoin will reach $100K before halving, or $200K this year. Mainly, because these are concepts/theories that I believe are obvious, whereas, maybe the idea of that not happening isn't so obvious... clearly.

Generally I find there is more valuable in information that is a minority opinion, and thus under-represented, rather than the dominant opinion, which is widely available.

I think that you usually have pretty good analysis, but you also seem to go a little nutso sometimes, which seems to be your current state.. .. from my perspective... hahahaha

I also did last year being an uber-bull and banging on about a recovery to $48K, so wouldn't be the first time!


Price says it wants to continue to go to the upside, the cycle says we should be consolidating. We can't do both very easily here, and for now, I still say the cycles exists until they are broken.

I am saying upside based on current dynamics... but does not mean that I am giving up on the cycle either because going up does not seem to break with the cycle, from my perspective.

This would again be where we differ in opinion, even though I do see an argument for that. Especially if 2025 was still a bull year and 2026 a bear year for example.

Either way, it should all start to become clearer after the halving, if not before with a considerably higher ATH, that would likely be a defining moment.

we already had a higher ATH.

I said considerably, so probably something >$75K, although this would still be quite conservative if you look at $69K being a fake-out of $64K.

It's about eliminating all possibilities, in this case, a fake-out high, that sure has never happened after 2 years of an ATH, but obvious could....

I've always been a long-term investor, much more of a hodler than you since 2018 as documented! The difference is I'm willing/able to separate a hodl position from a mid-term trade,

Maybe I read you wrong? You always seemed more of a trader than this here cat... from my perspective.

Probably because I spend more time trading than I do hodling, as the latter literally involves no effort? It doesn't involve selling 5% here and buying back 5% there. It's more or less an emergency stash I've only ever had to dip into once in 2021 for about 1%. If I were to document my hodling, there wouldn't be much of a story, it would be a topic based on "I'm hodling" with a single update of "sold 1%" in 2021.

I think I've tried to explain this to you before: I don't bother explaining my HODL strategy, it should be self explanatory. It's called HODLING, there is literally nothing else to elaborate on.
I tend to call mine maintenance... so once we get through accumulation, the next phase is maintenance, and then after that liquidation.. but there might not really be a need to get to liquidation because maintenance may well be sufficient to cover liquidation at whatever level is necessary.

For me this is what I'll do with my trading account; basic maintenance. Making sure the weight of my investments are adequate, although involves a lot more shitcoin profit taking (usually 50% every 2x) and otherwise full blown liquidations towards the end of the bull year. This is exactly what a trading account is for, which is the opposite of HODL account - as the idea of the latter is DO NOTHING, HODL.

There are no charts worth referencing, and it's certainly not about selling 5% when price doubles and buying back when/if price corrects, I'll leave that to the traders such as yourself.

I don't consider myself a trader.  I offset risk.

That's literally what some of the best traders say  Grin

Because even if you try and deny that you trade your stash, which personally I think is insane, but that's your choice, then this is exactly what you are doing.

that's how I frame it, and I am not going to stop.

Feel free to call yourself an investor, even if you trade, I'm really not that bothered. But hodlers don't sell, clues in the name. At least a hodl position is never sold, trading/investor accounts are obviously different, as requires balancing with broader portfolios and the like. That's a completely different ball park in my opinion. Hence my hodl and trading accounts are completely separate. Probably as well if you're not willing to lose the value of your hodl, it also shouldn't be a hodl (because you won't hodl to 0 like you should), so naturally this should be balanced accordingly to only hodl what you feel comfortable with or able to.

As crazy as it might sound, I have more than one strategy though and always have, and these days it includes maybe a long-trade once every 2-4 years, as well as speculating on altcoins in order to increase sats once every 4 years. Because otherwise my strategy of "do nothing" would be somewhat boring and incomplete to put it simply, especially when there are ways to accumulate more Bitcoin without investing your own money as it were, but using profit instead.  

If I had not offset the risk by implementing my system (selling on the way up and buying on the way down), there would have likely been no way that I would have been able to hold as many BTC as I have held because I would have gotten nervous from the volatility, so my strategy is to take advantage of the volatility in order that it does not have an effect on me as much as it would if I employed a more pure HODL strategy.

This makes sense, and why I think managing an investor account completely separate from a HODL makes a lot of sense. The former you can actively manage, as you should with investments, the latter you literally hold on for dear life, nothing else. Maybe you end up retiring from it, but more realistically someone inherits it (because you held on for your entire life: you win). Just food for thought, you do you.

Your hodl could literally only be 1-5% of your entire stash, as is the going recommendation for a Bitcoin allocation to hodl. But not having a hodl allocation just seems very bizarre to me. I understand that the assumption is you will always have 1-5% left, even with actively managing an investment account, but even this risk isn't worth considering or even necessary in my opinion, for various reasons. For example ideally your hodl is in deep cold storage, not an "active" cold storage which you access, and therefore has every potential to becomes a risk. A piece of paper in a vault you own is ideal in my opinion.

I'm not even trying to convince you to have a hodl position, I just think it's strange you don't have one, and more relevantly, would be easy to implement by the sound of it.

If I was a degen trader, I'd be trying to catch every pump and every move, taking profits when price simply increases *cough cough *. Sure I used to trade a lot more in the past, but generally I've found that the less trades you make, based on higher capital and lowest risk possible, is just as profitable without all the effort. You can basically save a lot of time and effort with this low-frequency strategy, rather than a higher-frequency strategy, probably why I also haven't been on the forums as much either for that matter.

I don't change my behavior based on anticipating price direction, so in that sense the price comes to me and I don't go to the price or try to predict it in terms of my system.  I would not call it high frequency, but just playing swings, with any sales there is no expectation to buy back..   but if buy backs end up happening, then so be it.. make lemonade out of lemons.

You talking "playing swings" in the market, but you're not a trader? OK then...
18  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 08, 2024, 02:18:18 PM
Are y'all going for a quadruple top or something? The collapse on the other side of this is going to be really bad.

For starters, it would be a triple top at best, not quadruple  Roll Eyes

Also it's arguably not a triple top, as after the double-ish top, price corrected -75% and is back to it's highs after 2 years.

Is also a good time to reference Gold's triple top from 2020 to 2023. Is looking pretty bullish wouldn't you say?

You've always been bearish since 2011, so you're nothing more than troll  Grin
19  Economy / Speculation / Re: Dear diary on: March 08, 2024, 01:50:22 PM
Gonna have to cherry pick some replies here, as that's almost too long to read, had to skim some of it even, and it took me a few days to write back  Wink

Also cutting quoting as otherwise reply will be even more hideously longer, and because we both know what was originally said...

From my perspective, you still seem to be grasping at a long-shot theory, while trying to make it sound like it has some kind of realistic chance of playing out.. when maybe at best it has 20% odds of happening.

And, yeah, I don't claim to be an expert in assigning odds, even though the ETFs seem to be way more sticky in terms of the kind of capital that they are likely getting flowing in..

I was more 60/40 for a considerable correction around $50K, now at ATH, I'm probably more 50/50. Although my allocation doesn't reflect that neutrality.

These are likely not the "in and out" kind of guys that you are painting them to be, and at the same time, the BTC spot ETFs are successful beyond the wildest of expectations and they are generating their own demand/hype to some extent that seems to justify something like a 2x to 3x BTC price appreciation based on flows that are going in the buying direction and NOT likely easy to change, until maybe after the 2x to 3x BTC UPpity plays out... so you are striving and stretching to argue the contrary point of view that does not line up with actual on the ground facts.

This is all speculation, none of this can be attributed actual facts. I'm speculating that they are liable to be weak hands (as per all newbies), you're speculating they'll be strong hands (as per ETF holders).

It's exactly this type of gray-area speculation I'm not a fan of. It's inconclusive, unpredictable, and only time will tell which theory is correct. Right now, it could be either. Let's be real about it.

Sure.  I believe in cycles too, and yeah, in terms of the timeline we are closer to March 2020, but part of the problem is that in March 2020, we had not yet reached an ATH.. so we did not get into noman's land or even close, we were still struggling getting past the early July 2019 high of $13,880.. .. so right before the March 2020 crashening (kind of like a quasi-black swan event) we were ONLY dancing with $10k at best which was ONLY half the 2017 ATH.. and in this case we have already breached the 2021 ATH, momentum remains in that direction because buy support is more than keeping up. .... this thing is not overly frothy.. which would be the case if buying support is not able to keep up with the price, which surely is not the current case (ie facts on the ground).

I meant March 2020 time wise, not price wise. But anyhow, yes, it's currently no mans land, we are well beyond dead cat bounce territory here. Price has fully recovered now. However based on certain metrics, we are indeed still in the "belief/denial" stage, which makes sense right? You believe and I could be in denial. The main issue I have is that we've passed the point of no return based on historical data, and that a macro top is coming soon enough (long before 2025), one that leads to a year-long bear market. This I don't believe, not with the halving this year etc, therefore I don't think we'll have a multi-year bull market if we are close to creating a macro top already, which I agree would be north of $100K. If we do, then so be it, the Bitcoin cycle is destroyed and it all becomes unpredictable, leaving only holding left as a reasonable strategy, at least until more data and price action becomes available.

No way Jose.  It is not obvious.  In 2021, we had two peaks, so right now the BTC price is not even close to peaking, so it is more like December 2020 when it was passing the 2017 ATH for the first time. ..

I minced by words, I meant in a literal sense price is closer to October 2021. Whether price is more similar to the structure of December 2020 I'm not going to argue over... it's obviously at new ATH level.


I am prepared for either direction, and I hardly give any shits about either direction, especially since this UPpity is a bit premature.

Yeh, this is kind of the point I'm trying to make. If it's premature for a full blown bull market, then it's likely something else will plug that time gap in the meantime.

But I am not going to fight the facts, which seems to be that we are in the middle of nomans land and heading uppity.. and the best you likely could hope for is that there might be some additional resistance somewhere between $84k and $94k prior to us getting too close to $100k since we should already know that $100k is not going to hold, once we get within a 4-5% of it... Yeah, it is likely to be passed through a few times, but we are at a point of the cycle that you cannot be putting much credit into downity.. the trend is your friend and it happens to be UPpity. and that is how bull markets work.

Once we convincingly break $70K level then I'll (again) change my opinion, as naturally it changes based on price change (as it should), but we are still not there yet. There's nothing yet to prove (at least as I type) that this isn't a fake-out ATH, similar to October 2021. Given I was in complete denial about the fake-out high back then, I won't be making the same mistake here, especially with proof of concept now available.

I see the price going up. and I don't consider it to be going up too fast, especially given context.

It depends on the context of "too fast". Too fast for there to be a bull run in 2025? Absolutely, it's basically a few months from a top based on previous overbought levels. Too fast to not go above $100K? Absolutely not, it's basically on target, and could go beyond that with ease (the 2x from here theory let's call it). One thing I do think is that we will either reach $100K within a few months, or consolidate sideways for 3-9 months similar to $25K to $30K level (between maybe $50K and $70K), or correct 50% from here or near abouts, being the worst case scenario but far from macro bearish either, but rather bullish long-term to build up momentum for a(nother) 12 month bull run. For reference sake, price is beyond overbought levels of 2019 (that were a weedy 80 on RSI) and closing in on 2021 post-2014 record of around 95. 2017 peaked twice at 90 in June and December. We're currently at 88, so sure, there could be a couple of considerably higher peaks in next 6 months, no denying that.

My concern of reaching $100K so soon, as a macro top, would be the entering a year-long bear market in 2024(?), correcting much further than 50%. Maybe the halving would help us out eventually, but given it's based on demand, with a sell off is greater than the buying, along with ETF profit taking (think we can both agree at 2-3x there would be considerable outflows, especially coming off a parabolic top), the havling wouldn't become relevant until price finally stabilises again. Granted, that is most of the possible scenarios I guess, which is kind of the point. It's otherwise the last example I find the most unlikely here.

It'd be great to be under the impression that price could go to $100K or $200K, within a few months, with zero considerable downside potential. But really?!

There is something off about your framing... too bad you couldn't have just stayed a bit more of a bulltard, then you would not be in your current situation, wishing for downity that is not very likely to happen.

Again, I'm not wishing for it, it's simply what concerns me the most right now. Most of me would prefer if it didn't happen. There's context to where I bought and where I sold, they were long-term targets that I intended to stick to. The investment was never supposed to be locked up for as long as it was, but alas it paid off. Taking that investment out was intended to be the end of high-risk investments, "degen trading", with money I shouldn't have really been using in the first place, but alas let's see what happens in 3 years time and whether I'm tempted again for another 2x long-term trade.

So my current situation is to be a bit more responsible with investments (let's say I try and improve this on an annual basis, but it doesn't necessary work when tempted by conviction), so I'm very grateful for the situation I'm in. To make a high-risk trade, it pay off, and not suffer from the greed on holding on (like so many do), or otherwise the "loss" of an extra +20%, that contextually wouldn't exist without taking the risk in the first place.  There's an old saying that no-one ever went broken from selling at a profit (the context is that many did go broke from trading money they shouldn't have been).

I am not going to deny large corrections to be both possible, but to have decently high odds of happening.  It is also quite possible that BTC prices will settle in the range of $120k to $180k in 2024. and then perhaps (or likely) go higher in 2025, so just between now and $180k, I surely expect some decently-sized corrections, including at least a couple 30% or more that might even get in the 50% plus levels.... but they are still not seeming too likely prior to our at least getting through noman's land, and generally  (and historically) speaking once getting all the way through noman's land, it does not tend to be likely to correct all the way back through it.. so call me a sceptic on any theories expecting those levels of corrections, even though they could happen.

My consideration is more based on the decreasing volatility over time, rather than returning to the high levels of volatility as 2017. Many still see 2021 as some sort of price suppression or otherwise, personally I just see it as the natural evolution of reduced volatility that was always projected, especially when an asset reaches >$1T. Not much else to say on that I think.

I did not say it is impossible.  I am still considering the 200-WMA as the bottom and that is currently at around $31,700.  But that does not mean that I am going to go argue that we need to revisit those lower prices or to suggest down before up, especially when we are still well in the middle of noman's land, which has an additional UPPity momentum built into the concept.

That's good, fortunately no-one is arguing that we need to revisit those lows that I know of...  Let me know if anyone is saying that, as I'd happily argue there is no need to go to $30K, nor $100K right now for that matter, I'd happily point them in the right direction of reality. Bitcoin doesn't need to go anywhere, it just exists. Things that can be considered likely to happen is a different story.

when I believe that $100K this year is more than possible. I was hoping there would be more or a balance between "UPonly" and "correction possibly", rather than uber-bullish mentality. I still remember when we used to consider every possible outcome, not be blinded by parabolic moves in the market.

We still consider every possibility, and we assign very low odds to your scenario, such as less than 20%.

You seem to be wanting to assign much higher odds to your scenario, such as, perhaps, higher than 50% odds.  You were even suggesting that guys shave off some of their cornz so they can prepare for your scenario.  How is that playing out right now?

When did I suggest people sell their coins? I don't think I've ever suggested anyone sell their coins. To be cautious, sure, but never to sell? You are assuming that just because I am doing something that I think others should be doing the same. Unless others are in the exact same situation as myself, which they aren't, then there would be no reason to be advising others on how to manage their assets would there?

It's otherwise playing out very well right now, thanks for asking, I have an overwhelming sense of relief. I thought I might even regret it a bit with price moving higher, but in the fact opposite is true. I stuck to my targets, didn't get greedy, and happily ride the rest of the move with what I feel comfortable with and able to. I feel like I've transitioned from degen to a responsible degen, which is progress.

I otherwise pretty certain I specifically DIDN'T assigned any % to the outcome of say $30K, or $35K. My outcome was purely based on correction or sideways price action. There's no way of realistically telling how deep a correction can go in those scenarios, only maybe maximum based on support levels, or how long sideways price movement can realistically last for (whether it's 3 months or 6 or 9 or a year).

I'll leave it to the speculators to assign random % chances to certain price targets, as if the percentages are meaningful rather than plucked out of a degen hat  Wink

We all know who's been buying BTC these past two months, and we can talk about the positives of ETF inflows until the cows come home. But what about the negatives? The newbie short-term holders? Are they exempt from scrutiny because they are mainly institutions? No.

Yes.  negatives can happen. and even panic.  But you are not going to get me to change where I think that we are at

Excellent, good for you, sticking to your principles! (I obviously wasn't trying to... I honestly couldn't give a shit where your buy orders are, no offence! That's your business and strategy, not mine)

I get the sense that we have already been quite stable through this whole rise from $25k to $69.2k, and only recently did we get a bit more instability, but if the BTC price is bouncing around a bit, that still does not mean it is not going to continue to ultimately move up and to pass through no man's land along with the presumption that it is passing through noman's land.

Likewise, entering no mans land does not mean we are simply going to continuing going up through it. We usually do, but no always. Welcome to 2021, it's a new era.

But why do it now?  Especially when we are both in UPPity and we are in an even more special area of UPpity.. and furthermore we are in a kind of bear punishment mode..

Why did it happen in October 2021 when all the bears eventually got rekt? Why would it happen to all the newbies ETF investors? WhY Oh whY?

keep calling for down over and over and over...

I'm not even calling for down, you've misread what I've said. I made it clear: consolidation, whether that be downwards or sideways. Cooling off at minimum.

Even in the "bull market years" of Bitcoin there is price stability that eventually arrives, usually because these UPONLY periods don't last longer than 12 months. This is uncharted territory for sure, but it won't exempt Bitcoin from going through the usually period of correction/sideways price action I don't believe, if anything, the longer it goes on for, the worse it will be.

Sure. What you say is true, but it still does not mean that UP is not going to continue until morale of the bears improves.

We can agree on this much, price doesn't usually go bearish overnight, especially after a parabolic move to the upside (+100% in about 3 months). It's take some re-test and harsher rejection from new highs, likely a lower high, failing support at lower levels, etc. The type of neutral consolidation that turns bearish. I don't expect price to suddenly reverse to the downside, not given the current bullish momentum.

Some of you traders put way the fuck too much emphasis in various squigglies and you also need to stop the fuck treating Bitcoin as if it were some kind of a mature asset and fail/refuse to sufficiently/adequately account for exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and network effects (in the Trace Mayer school of thought).. ..


So I shouldn't put emphasis on squiggled on a chart, I should look at squiggles on someone elses chart, then assign random % to certain price targets? This is the way to be a real/true speculator right?

I don't even rely on squiggles anyway, that's a mugs game (no offence, I know you like them really, as long as they are all mathematically squiggled).

If it did become exempt from usual Bitcoin/market movements, then there will be worse things to come, as that would be official bubble territory that Bitcoin has never experienced before, and all hell could break lose. Fortunately, we're not there yet.

We are far from there, because if you had not noticed, BTC's price was artificially repressed during 2022 and even into until October 2023, which helps to contribute to these kinds of explosive periods to make up for the prior suppression that had been happening earlier.

It's manipulation to the downside but never to the upside, gotcha. Never heard that one before. As if Tether didn't exist  Cheesy

You are sure spending a lot of time arguing for down, even though claiming to be prepared for either direction.

I know mental right. Having one opinion but being proportionately weighted for either direction. It's almost like I have a bias towards Bitcoin or something?? Doesn't make any sense.

It's not like I'm on a Bitcoin forum talking about Bitcoin is it... oh wait. Obviously I am! Maybe I should head over to the fiat forums instead haha.

the halving is never "priced in", as the effects of reduced mining rewards only takes effect once the rewards are actually halved.
Of course new issuance of coins makes a difference, but we have supply squeezes currently that go way beyond the effects of the halvening.. if you had not noticed that.
I had, I'm just being sensible and not basing 2 months of ETF trading with 15+ years of Bitcoin price history, that'd be ridiculous and insulting to Bitcoin itself. You're insulting Bitcoin here.

I am not trying to throw out history, either.  There surely are patterns and there are also periods in which dee cornz goes beyond the patterns while still staying within the patterns, but we might not be able to see that it is still within the pattern until we let time pass and we look back upon what had just happened that seemed to be unexpected, but still it was not as crazy as it seemed to be while we were going through it.

Precisely. Price may or may not be going against Bitcoin history/cycles, only time will tell. This could literally go either way right now, so best to be prepared for either direction. Price says it wants to continue to go to the upside, the cycle says we should be consolidating. We can't do both very easily here, and for now, I still say the cycles exists until they are broken. We've already seen a fake-out ATH before remember... but we've never seen the cycle broken, this is as close as we've got so far. Either way, it should all start to become clearer after the halving, if not before with a considerably higher ATH, that would likely be a defining moment.

I'm not going to start speculating with everyone else that the cycle is broken and the parabolic full blown bull run starts now, although it does seem popular based on current price, that seems like a degen thing to do right now personally. As old school as it sounds, I'd prefer to stick with the current facts and constants based on history rather than the potential theories and variables. Especially when they are based on ETF boys.

Seems like doom and gloom if you believe these newbies are so dumb as to start selling... but yeah, hey anything can happen, and I am glad that at least one of us (you) is putting a decent amount of effort to prepare yourself, so you will be able to tell us "I told you so" when you end up being the ONLY one who saw it.

Lol, I wouldn't be saying that. Especially when I made it clear I'm more 50/50 and sceptical rather than bearish, I'm just outlining worst case scenarios, and I'm far from the only one even if it's a minority opinion. If price had reversed from $48K to say $30K, then sure, I might be saying "I told you so" because I was a lot more confident in that opinion than I am of a reversal from ATH here. More importantly, it's not about saying "I told you so", it's about providing all the available perspectives here, which can be useful to others (I'm not just talking about mine, yours as well).

As an example like when I said that it was likely that price would reverse back to around $48K in 2024, I was a few months off timing wise granted, but most people thought I was insane at that time.

Oh thanks, I hadn't heard that before. I mean obviously every uber-bull and YouTuber has been spouting >$100K in the next few hours or weeks,

I am glad that you are so original. much more original than the various uber bulls, like yours truly.  and I am glad that you consider yourself to be smarter and such an original thinker.. as if some folks with opinions and assessments similar to mine are all parroting one another while you have the true insight and the nuanced perspective that happens to be able to see matters with more clarity.

Obviously that not what I said, meant or think. I simply think there are alternative theories to the dominant one. I'm sorry to hear you feel that way though, that's a tough projection to deal with by sounds of it.

Pure speculation, as has been the theme these past two months. Why don't we wait and find out? Because your theory is completely untested.
Your theory is "more tested" than mine?  give me a break.

No, you misunderstood. I'm trying to explain how your theory is AS speculative as mine.
I'm willing to acknowledge it is speculation, are you?

It depends on how much you sold. Since you are claiming to not have sold very much then you might be o.k.  ... but many times guys like you who sell too much too soon (without admitting it) rationalize themselves into becoming more and more disgruntled.  So hopefully your situation is not going in that direction.

Think I already covered this above, but I didn't sell any of my HODL, so there is that. It was taking profits on a high-risk trade (or in my opinion, the lowest risk trade you can get with Bitcoin every 4 years). So it was a definite minority of my holdings, there is that. As I said, and maybe should of explained better originally, it was around $23K to $48K. There is no loss here. My rationale is that without taking that risk in the first place, I wouldn't be in the position of having X capital now. This also means sure, I wouldn't be opposed to buying around $50K or higher, as long as it's after the halving for example.

It's easy to think with the mindset of "paying more to buy those coins back", but for me, as I explained, it was money I shouldn't have been investing in the first place in reality. Probably predominantly because I didn't take any profits in 2021, it was certainly a way to counter that in the short-term. I really shouldn't have X available to buy a dip or consolidation, but fortunately I do now (which I obviously wouldn't otherwise). And sure, it would have been easy to buy back at $40K, and despite the temptation, I didn't want to "test my luck" after selling at $48K before price reversed.

I am getting the sense that you must not know dee cornz too well.. the cornz is likely to become less stable rather than more stable in the coming 6-18 months give or take 3 months.

Historically, based on 4-year cycles, this isn't necessarily true or accurate I don't believe. Based on reaching a new ATH, then sure, each time it's been highly volatile, whether to the upside or downside.

I was never going to sell the majority of my stash, that would be insane right now.

Selling anything beyond 5% at a time seems like a lot to me.. but hey, I sell about 5% every time the price doubles.. so I suppose I could be similar to you.. even though my BTC stash still seems to be mostly going up and doesn't really shrink very much.. .even though several mistakes have been made along the way, too.

No, sounds you you've sold a lot more Bitcoin from your stash than me personally (based on % that is)  Grin

Since 2018, I have sold about a 1% of my HODL I think. But also our situations are different, I'd prefer to put 5-15% in speculating on altcoins in order to double my BTC stash, which generally isn't too difficult, rather than selling %'s when price doubles and trying to buy back lower when there is a correction. Both naturally being speculative strategies. But then again my HODL isn't intended as much more than money that's intended to be passed down to someone after I pass away, not for my own benefit. If price were to reach $200K to $300K, then sure, I'd be tempted to take profits for the first time in years though, can't deny that.

I was simply selling some scepticism, not even weakness.

Seems a bit misplaced to suffer from so much skepticism from the perspective of this here cat.  Especially after going through so much gruelling between May 2022 until about October 2023..

With that investment, I would of needed to feel 90-95% confident that price would continue to the upside, 50-80% is not enough, not by a longshot.

and quite frankly, we'll see how it plays out in the immediate term and well as long-term. Long-term I don't doubt it will be beneficial, but short-term, I remain far from convinced (mainly as there is nothing to prove otherwise so far, this is a short-term concept right now). Putting all your faith into the short-term goes against the fundamentals of Bitcoin imo. I refuse to be blinded by these so-called game-changing institutional on-ramps, I'll instead put my faith into Bitcoin, it's cycles, it's fundamentals, and every other technical aspect of it's existence. Not fucking ETFS.

Well you may well be ignoring reality.. because both is going on and happening at the same time.  

I don't think I'm ignoring it, I can see exactly what's going on; record inflows into ETFs, 9x the amount of available mining rewards being consumed in day, the real ability to move beyond a $1T market cap. It's all there in black and white, and if it continues as it has done for about a month, then sure price can easily sky rocket to the upside. My issue is simply TIME, as per usual. This is still a short-term concept, despite how positive it has been so far. The only thing that will change that is time, nothing else can. Apart from maybe a time-machine somehow, but they don't exist so there.

Because ultimately, regardless of this year, I still believe Bitcoin will increase dramatically in 2025 (let's say by 2026), so I'm not rushing to offload my stash here. Just remaining overly cautious.

We have to see how this year and at least part of 2025 play out before figuring out 2026, and you already know the pattern that 2026 would be expected to be a down year... but yeah, we cannot really know this far in advance.. but we can still tentatively keep the cycle frame as you already suggested.

I meant by 2026, ie by end of 2025. But sure, a lot will depend on what happens this year, as well as obviously next year, as to whether 2026 will actually be a bear year. If the full-blown bull run starts this year, then 2025 would more likely be a bear year, if price is to increase dramatically and continue it's parabolic run etc. Until there is more clarity this year, I think the idea of 2026 is impossible to judge, even 2025 for now.

And again, don't assume you know what I should have been doing or wish I had done. I'm glad I didn't buy at $40K.

You were telling guys to sell in order to prepare for down like you did.

When was I was telling anyone to sell? That sounds like nonsense. Mainly, because I'd never tell anyone to sell. Even if I said something along the lines of it could be last chance to sell around $48K, prior to a drop to $30K, that still wouldn't be TELLING anyone to sell. It would be expressing an opinion. Sure, some people might have sold based on my opinion, but I'm not responsible for anyone's choices here either.

I already covered this above anyway, but just reiterating...

I was drawn into this market threw degenerate gambling in August 2021 (degen season), which while was successful and paid off (who wasn't successful?), I realised it wasn't why I wanted to be invested in Bitcoin (it's not just about the cRaZy GaInZ). I'd prefer to exercise more caution these days, focus more on portfolio balancing and risk aversion, rather than chasing every pump and percentage that comes the markets way. Based on everything I'd said, I believe I have reason to be cautious right now, rather than being blinded by the ETF hype and inflows that are a short-term districations (as explained), and instead focus on Bitcoin and how it's always been.

Well if you are a long term investor rather than a trader, then congratulations and welcome to the club... yet I still have my doubts, especially since you spent a quite a bit of effort prognosticating doom and gloom which causes me to think that you are not very long and you may have sold too much too soon with anticipation of getting further long, and you may well have over did it.

I've always been a long-term investor, much more of a hodler than you since 2018 as documented! The difference is I'm willing/able to separate a hodl position from a mid-term trade, likewise separate a trading account from a hodl. Sure there was initialy risk in doing that, but once you've made your initial back, you can gamble on the house for more satoshis. It's easy to say you shouldn't waste your time trading Bitcoin, but what if the only option you have is a short to mid-term trade, and you don't have the luxury of holding a position long-term. Has that ever been considered? This isn't even including the benefit of being able to 2x your capital, and then having X available as dry powder for Bitcoin (that you otherwise wouldn't have right?) I'm generally failing to see the lack of benefits here. And sure, this profit could end being invested at a higher price then you sold (god forbid!), it could even end up being $100K or $200K (mental!), but profit is profit. It didn't cost you anything to produce, only some time and convinction.

By the way it is hard to go along with your proclamation that you are no longer a degenerate trader when you are espousing trading ideas and trying to predict price movements.  I already said that I believe that my own strategy does not do any of that, and so my sales on the way up and my buying on the way down are largely intended just to provide insurance and there seems to be some empowerment with the ongoing employment of such a system that largely attempts to not get attached to short-term price moves.... even though it is not completely detached since it does involve buying on the way down and selling on the way up, but I don't really consider that to be trading.. merely a form of price/volatility insurance...especially since both of us likely realize that one of the most inevitable things in bitcoin is its volatility.. both historically and also in the present and in the years to come.. at least 20 years or more of outrageous price volatility expected as being more or less inevitable.

I think I've tried to explain this to you before: I don't bother explaining my HODL strategy, it should be self explanatory. It's called HODLING, there is literally nothing else to elaborate on. There are no charts worth referencing, and it's certainly not about selling 5% when price doubles and buying back when/if price corrects, I'll leave that to the traders such as yourself. Because even if you try and deny that you trade your stash, which personally I think is insane, but that's your choice, then this is exactly what you are doing. The fact you do it in a low-risk manner doesn't mean it's any less trading, only what would be considered low-risk trading. Not to mention you've no doubt made more trades in the past 12 months than me right now, which is iroinic, even if I wouldn't consider it particularly degenerate (even though I would always consider trading a hodl stash as degenerate to some degree). But then again, maybe you have an allocation of HODL and an allocation of trading for I know, rather than it all being in the same basket as it were.

As crazy as it might sound, I have more than one strategy though and always have, and these days it includes maybe a long-trade once every 2-4 years, as well as speculating on altcoins in order to increase sats once every 4 years. Because otherwise my strategy of "do nothing" would be somewhat boring and incomplete to put it simply, especially when there are ways to accumulate more Bitcoin without investing your own money as it were, but using profit instead.  If I was a degen trader, I'd be trying to catch every pump and every move, taking profits when price simply increases *cough cough *. Sure I used to trade a lot more in the past, but generally I've found that the less trades you make, based on higher capital and lowest risk possible, is just as profitable without all the effort. You can basically save a lot of time and effort with this low-frequency strategy, rather than a higher-frequency strategy, probably why I also haven't been on the forums as much either for that matter.

And sure, HODLing has always been the most profitable for me based on $$$ value increase, purely because it's around 85-95% of my holdings, but otherwise trading shitcoins has always been better % gains (against Bitcoin), but this only reflects 5-15% of my holdings. A degenerate would think "but if you make more money from trading, then you should trade most if not all of your stash right?" No, that's not me.
20  Economy / Speculation / Re: Dear diary on: March 05, 2024, 10:50:25 PM
So what are people's thoughts? Ironically, despite still expecting an inevitable correction (what goes up must come down before going back up again), today's bearish candle I don't find very concerning. For one, it's the first sell candle in weeks, since the move from $40K, so isn't exactly conclusive of "the top's in" mentality. For now, it's an orderly corrective candle, with further potential upside. Just look back at October 2021 with ATH making. Firstly there was a new ATH followed by an immediate strong bearish doji selling candle on the Weekly, that was followed by another 3 weeks of upside to make another slightly higher ATH. So now that the ATH has been pierced, I think it's more likely to be re-tested and broken again, rather than the correcting starting from here. That said...


As a comparison point, we are likely closer to December 2020 than we are to October 2021... although we are still at pre-halvening.. even though likely the impact of the halvening is dwarfed as compared to the volume of BTC that the various new spot ETFs are sucking up.

Had you noticed that spot BTC ETFs had been approved and they have been sucking up BTC like a mo fo?

Yes, noted re: ETFs. Price go up and BTC into ETFs go up. No shit sherlock. What happens if price goes down though? Nobody knows, because it's never happened with ETFs being available, apart from the initial correction from $48K and ETF outflows became negative, but (I agree) that this is not conclusive of what will occur in the future. We are otherwise closer to March 2020 based on Bitcoin's cycles, which I still believe in. Obviously based on price, we are closer to Octotober 2021. To not acknoledge the subjectivity of these comparisons would be naive (I know I'm certainly not and remaining open minded).

My thought on re-testing $30K haven't changed much,

Oh my....  Shocked Shocked Shocked   Poor widdo tingilie .. hasn't bought back yet.  Gonna have to pour one out for you soon.

Give it time at least, I wouldn't be bathing in confidence about anything quite yet. There is still a lot to prove here.

especially the more parabolic the price has gone.

Hardly could be parabolic when there is hardly any supply left on exchanges..

But hey, you can look at whatever data you prefer.

It's not what I prefer, parabolic price movement is - unsurprisingly - based on price movement, it has nothing to do with supply.
I'm surprised you aren't aware of that obvious fact, but never mind.,

I'm closer to thinking a low could be around $35K rather than $30K,

Gosh what a great compromiser you are.  Thanks for that.  You are probably going to be lucky to get anything in the $40s.. and maybe this wee widdo dippening to $59,772 might have been all yee gonna be able to get..

It sounds like the same nonsense as in 2019, that you'd be lucky to get anything under $10K, when soon after price reached around $6K, back to support - as expected after a parabolic move.

It's possible that for now $60K could be the low before hitting $80K. If that happens, I'd happily raise my low / support level to $40K, because based on time, fib retracements and moving averages, that would be the low support, whether it reaches there or not. It's only really if price reaches $100K and goes beyond, then returning to below $50K becomes a bit less likely, especially if it happens this year.

as now a BULLISH macro retracement would be around $36K (0.382 fib retracement from low to high), as opposed to the more bearish full retracement back down to $28K. Felt the need to capitalise there, to specify that one price level would be bullish, the other would be borderline bearish, but otherwise neutral. Ie, starting an uptrend again from scratch type level, but also not conclusive of being bearish, even if it'd "feel" very bearish to many.

Yeah but it is probably not going to happen..

Sounds convincing. It sounds like every other YouTube saying "it's probably not going to happen", before it does.

Yeah, we have a bit of a correction today, but we are most likely going to through no man's land, and yeah, maybe we won't make it all the way through without a correction, but I am thinking that you have better chances for a correction once we start getting close to $90k-ish, give or take $4k.

You could be right here, it could take until $80K, $90K, even $100K, but in 2024, I don't believe there won't be a correction that won't be on average around 50%. I still believe in the routine.

Overall, I see the parabolic from from $40K to ~$70K as complete over-leveraged puff and newbie FOMO from ETFs.

ETF volume is hardly newbie FOMO.. The ETFs are barely getting started and many of them are not even open to RIAs yet (that's registered investment advisors).  

They are barely getting started, but it's not newbie FOMO? Right, ok... not even going to bother with this illogical argument.

Of course the ETFs are "good" (look at the price!), but many of these investors have no idea experience of Bitcoin's volatility that isn't one directional.

ETFs are still generally sticky.

Sure they can trade them, but they are more likely parking their money into those products for several years, and they may even get automatically reallocated from time to time, so they are not completely static, but they are most likely as much the "in and out" vehicles that you are making them out to be.

You stumbled across the key point here, possibly without realising it: "automatic allocation". That works for the upside and well was the de-alloclation to the downside. It's more or less automated based on what's trading to the upside and what's trading to the downside, much less based on emotions or fundamentals in reality. Ideally investments are held for years, sure, but this isn't always the case.

If we are to go below the ETF opening price of $48K,

We already did.  Don't you remember the correction from $49k to $38.5k?  That is the best you are going to get.  

Sorry for your loss.

Oh dear, it's concerning to here a long-time Bitcoiner believing that <$50K is now impossible, when I believe that $100K this year is more than possible. I was hoping there would be more or a balance between "UPonly" and "correction possibly", rather than uber-bullish mentality. I still remember when we used to consider every possible outcome, not be blinded by parabolic moves in the market.

Again, this type of mentality reminds me of 2019 parabolic move, that <$10K was now impossible, cos "Bitcoin is bullish", and remains highly speculative as an outlook to maintain.

I think there will be a lot "jumping ship" from more conservative investors, rather than further speculation. Bare in mind these TradFi clowns aren't used to a -30% correction in a matter of days or weeks, and they'd typically see it as extremely bearish, even though $48K level would be the support level for continued bullish momentum. This, fundamentally more than anything, is why I don't trust the current rally above $50K. It's based on hopes and dreamss, not reality imo, and relying on newbies to have strong hands.

There are always newbies bailing ship, but they are not enough to make a difference.

Right, unless all the newbies bought Bitcoin ETFs in the past two months, or does that not count as newbie investors? We all know who's been buying BTC these past two months, and we can talk about the positives of ETF inflows until the cows come home. But what about the negatives? The newbie short-term holders? Are they exempt from scrutiny because they are mainly institutions? No.

So I am sitll a bit torn over the "considerable correction" theory, as it may just be a re-test of $50K level and stablise from there (again this would be IMMEDIATELY BULLISH not bearish). My other concern is surrounding the halving... ironically. With price so high, so is the average mining cost, around $50K at the moment. At this rate, there will be the inevitable "miner capitulation" (reduction in mining power) with average price immediately spiking to $100K. I think we've generally averted the uber bearish miner selling scenario, because with price so high and rewards about to drop in half, miners are able to sell at a reasonable price to cover costs (especially those who will need to switch off machines in the coming months, until a more favourable mining cost is available, with the reduction of difficulty etc). Naturally the longer-term effects will be bullish, like we've seen every halving, but in reality the immediate effects are never bullish, but more of a stabilising effect for price (at best...)

Sure, there might be some loss of miners.. but even that is not a given.  You seem to be assuming quite a bit, but hey?  who knows?  maybe you will be correct and you will be able to buy back your coins in the $30ks as you suggest, or maybe you will get smarter and buy back before then when you realize that it ain't not gonna happen.

Firstly, you're assuming I'm waiting for $30K or $35K, even $40K. WRONG! I'm waiting for price stability, not really bothered where that price comes from, but if you think that after 14 months of UPONLY that there will be no correction or sideways price action, for a considerable amount of time (like months), then you've gone insane. In 10+ years of Bitcoin, this has ALWAYS been the case. ETFs are not an excuse here.

Even in the "bull market years" of Bitcoin there is price stability that eventually arrives, usually because these UPONLY periods don't last longer than 12 months. This is uncharted territory for sure, but it won't exempt Bitcoin from going through the usually period of correction/sideways price action I don't believe, if anything, the longer it goes on for, the worse it will be. If it did become exempt from usual Bitcoin/market movements, then there will be worse things to come, as that would be official bubble territory that Bitcoin has never experienced before, and all hell could break lose. Fortunately, we're not there yet.

More to the point, every halving there is at least one significant drop of mining power, due to reduced rewards, usually a few instances depending on where price has come from,

This time is different.

I'll add this to my diary of times where I was told that this time it's different, and check back in the future to see if it was actually different, as so far this hasn't been the case. But let's see!

which often leads to either decrease in price or otherwise sideways stability, as difficulty drops and the network has to "re-calibrate" the change (see 2020 and 2016).

Sure.  Flash crashes no problem.  May or may not happen again, as you suggest, so sad for uie pooie... if you are preparing for down without sufficiently/adequately preparing for up.

Again, you're making unfounded assumptions. I was balancing my portfolio to be prepared for a correction, while also (predominantly) being prepared for continued upside (as has happened). But I forgive you, as despite not bothering to question these things, it's easy to make wrong assumptions about ones Bitcoin allocation. So no sadness here, as I said I'm not bothered about the degen 50%+ on top of that.

the halving is never "priced in", as the effects of reduced mining rewards only takes effect once the rewards are actually halved.

Of course new issuance of coins makes a difference, but we have supply squeezes currently that go way beyond the effects of the halvening.. if you had not noticed that.

I had, I'm just being sensible and not basing 2 months of ETF trading with 15+ years of Bitcoin price history, that'd be ridiculous and insulting to Bitcoin itself. You're insulting Bitcoin here. Is it not fair and realistic to compare ETF inflows/outflows with price decline, not just UPONLY parabolic moves? That seems realistic to me, in order to see the balance of these things, that we've yet to see most importantly.

Of course ETF inflows will increase when price increases, it's correlated for good reason. We don't really know what happens in the inverse stage, and eventually we will find out.

Not forgetting that it takes some time, usually a few months, for the supply to "dry up", if the demand and supply remains the same. Obviously if the demand remains high, like with the ETFs, the effects of the halving could be more immediate than usual, but only time will tell. For example if we hold $50K until the halving, the effects would likely be immediate bullish based on current demand.

$100k before the halvening is looking more likely, and then the $120k to $180k range is likely to be a part of our 2024 BTC experiences. Sorry to break the news.

Oh thanks, I hadn't heard that before. I mean obviously every uber-bull and YouTuber has been spouting >$100K in the next few hours or weeks, similar to late 2021, and it's all over mainstream media, but thanks for breaking the news to me again, I should really have faith in the mainstream media and influencer's positive opinion of Bitcoin. In fact, I should acknowledge more when they are bearish too! [/sarcasm]

Overall, just like $48K was the "treshold" for me to no longer consider the move from $15.5K as a 2019-style dead cat bounce, it will also be the level for me to consider the immediate uptrend to be over if we break below, especially now this is the opening ETF price effectively.

It is doubtful we will get back to $48k.. even though sure it is possible, but lower $50ks is probably best you can hope for..... absent some kind of short-term downward spike, but I have my doubts about that, too.

Thank fuck, I was getting worried then. So $48K is possible after all? In that case, maybe we do go to $100K after all, if everyone hasn't become an UPONLY uber-bull.

Probably others would lower to this $44K (Weekly closing highs) or even $40K, but personally I think below $48K it could well be too late to directly change the course of events. It's specifically were TradFi investors will enevitably turn into nervous nellies, if price is approaching their entry points.

I doubt those early ETF guys are as weak-handed as you are making them out to be, even though they may well be reapportioning their BTC from time to time..

Pure speculation, as has been the theme these past two months. Why don't we wait and find out? Because your theory is completely untested. The only comparison is how strong newbie hands are, and from 10+ years of history, they are weak as fuck. The weakest of them all in fact. Ideally this time it would be different, but all that "automated allocation" malarkey will probably play out in an automated way...

Bare in mind most of the investors are no different than Bitcoin speculators, and the first correction each of these speculators experiences is typified by fear, uncertainty, and doubt; thus leads to a lot of panic selling. So I'm certainly not putting my faith into these newbies to be strong hands if price corrects beyond what they feel comfortable with. Obviously any "smart Bitcoin investor" would simply increase position if price dropped further, for example buying $40K if you're average was $50K, etc, but these Bitcoin ETF newbies won't be smart in my opinion, they are still complete newbies to the Bitcoin market, and more importantly prefer to buy strength than weakness. So if you want to put faith in these newbies (that can be translated into price >$50K, then feel free, but I won't be participating in this facade).

Seems like a long-shot theory you are espousing... but hey it is a free country world  thread.. do/feel as you like.

Long-short theory that newbies aren't weak hands? OK! Let's agree to disagree  Smiley

Also, as just a mere reality check of Bitcoin pyschology here, since when did complete noobs get to throw money at Bitcoin near an ATH and get to ride a 50% move to the upside within a couple of months with zero consequences? I don't believe these institutional investors are any smarter than Bitcoiners in my opinon, and if anything, when push comes to shove, they will have much weaker hands. They want Bitcoin because of price appreciation and as a store of value. If that store of value is to the downside, I'm certain they won't be interested until it presents itself as a store of value / price appreciation asset again.

Sounds like a long shot theory and you are talking your book.. .

sucks to be uie pooie.. sold at $48k or was it $46k?

It was $48K without regrets. As I said, I'll let the degens trade the rest... they are the only ones trading >$50K right now. Hodlers aside (that obviously aren't trading hodl stash, like myself).

I even could of re-bought at $40K, but wasn't interested in such a speculative trade. Crazy I know, I don't care for degen pump chasing anymore! I've changed.

PS - I'm not salty that I sold at $48K either,

Ok.. $48k then.  You might as well buy back....

Oh you wouldn't want to do that.

You would rather stick with your principles.

I'd rather buy stability right now than a correction, that could go deeper than $48K. So again WRONG!

I still hold the majority of Bitcoin, just simply have a decent amount of "dry powder" for a correction (for probably the first time ever).

It is good that you did not blow your whole wadd on this.

But you still sound a wee bit desperate (rather than objective) in regards to the whole matter.

I'm lacking objectivity? Did you even read your own words? Unlikely to ever go below $50K again, more like to reach $100K within two months? Objective much? Whereas I'm willing to acknowledge that $80K-$100K is possibly this year, even if I find it unlikely, I'm not ruling that out, and am prepared for such scenarios. Predominantly because I think it would all end in tears if happened before 2025.

I was never going to sell the majority of my stash, that would be insane right now. I was simply selling some scepticism, not even weakness. By holding on from >$50K I'd be putting my faith in the institutions that bought up the price, which I'm simply not willing to do. It's a personal choice, not much else here. I'm not expecting you to understand either, don't worry.

If I didn't sell $48K to the upside, I'd be selling it to the downside, and looking at price as I type,

Stop trying to suck us into your stupidity.  Yeah you would have had been smart if you would have bought back around $38.5k, but you were too stubborn, and you think that what you are saying is so obvious that guys here should be selling.. .. that is quite lame.

Fuck that, I'm glad I didn't buy $40K! Oh my god what the fuck are you talking about? My days of degenerate trading are much behind me (at least with Bitcoin). Still happy to trade shictoins for SATS, but I don't chase pumps anymore, it's a recipe for disaster. I wasn't selling $48K for a trade, that probably the first point you missed out of everything.

I think that downside may already be sooner than we think. Also if not obvious, I'm happy to ride a 250% move over a year during a recovery stage, I don't care about the final 50% parabolic move to the upside, I'll leave that to the degenerative gamblers to take advantage of, or get rekt by.[/i]

I doubt that guys waiting for up and buying on the way down (or on dips or even DCA buying) are even close to as degenerate as someone waiting/hoping for down when we just crossed over into ATHs for the first time in 2 years and 4 months.. 30 months.

Just look at the ETF inflows, they weren't buying on the way down and waiting for up, they were waiting for up and buying on the way up, and still are. What you're talking about is traditional Bitcoin investors / retail investors, because buying the dip has historically always been profitable. Institutions quite simply don't have the same blind faith as us Bitcoiners, hence they wait for strength rather than buying weakness.

This is just a simple reality of institutions buying into Bitcoin, and quite frankly, we'll see how it plays out in the immediate term and well as long-term. Long-term I don't doubt it will be beneficial, but short-term, I remain far from convinced (mainly as there is nothing to prove otherwise so far, this is a short-term concept right now). Putting all your faith into the short-term goes against the fundamentals of Bitcoin imo. I refuse to be blinded by these so-called game-changing institutional on-ramps, I'll instead put my faith into Bitcoin, it's cycles, it's fundamentals, and every other technical aspect of it's existence. Not fucking ETFS.

There are ways to play these matters in order to be prepared for either direction, and not ONLY are you seeming to be overly prepared for down, you are likely to have the odds quite greatly against you... so that's too bad we have not heard from you for the past month or so, when you probably should have been buying back in, while we were still in the $40ks even if we did not hit your lower $30k BTC price expectations.

How patronising, how could I be prepared for mainly down when I still hold the majority of my Bitcoin? Makes no sense. That's literally the idea of being prepared for upside (more so than downside)  Roll Eyes Because ultimately, regardless of this year, I still believe Bitcoin will increase dramatically in 2025 (let's say by 2026), so I'm not rushing to offload my stash here. Just remaining overly cautious.

And again, don't assume you know what I should have been doing or wish I had done. I'm glad I didn't buy at $40K. I was drawn into this market threw degenerate gambling in August 2021 (degen season), which while was successful and paid off (who wasn't successful?), I realised it wasn't why I wanted to be invested in Bitcoin (it's not just about the cRaZy GaInZ). I'd prefer to exercise more caution these days, focus more on portfolio balancing and risk aversion, rather than chasing every pump and percentage that comes the markets way. Based on everything I'd said, I believe I have reason to be cautious right now, rather than being blinded by the ETF hype and inflows that are a short-term districations (as explained), and instead focus on Bitcoin and how it's always been.
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