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961  Economy / Economics / Re: Russian oil and UK on: July 30, 2023, 10:00:50 PM
So far as I know the oil goes to India and China which are quite large enough to use it all in theory.  Its only the logistics restricting their consumption really and the ability to buy through clearing not subject to sanctions.   UK is importing oil from Norway last I checked and would be in trouble if not for that quite local support from a small but friendly nation.   UK used its reserves mostly and is not searching to develop more, long term even Russia has a problem with developing its resources properly and efficiently.    
  The reason I say India is because they have only found a small amount of oil in a large expanse and populated nation.  Also India has a policy to import raw crude and make a business from refinement, in fact Indian companies bought UK assets to do so there also but India has a more friendly policy to Russia then many nations I suppose for long term reasons.    UK has literally suffered nerve agent attacks on its mainland from Russian agents, it would be surprising if they ignore all the possible avenues of oil from allies and then transported from so far away.  Anything is possible but sometimes improbable is your best guidance. 
  Russia might have already failed in its war generally if they had sold no goods outside its borders however they do find markets imo its on its borders mostly.
962  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Gambling is not a steady income haven on: July 30, 2023, 07:55:24 PM
I used to know an old school book maker decades back and alot of work went into surveying the prospects for the game.   To beat the  odds its presumably true you must do as much work and skill to decipher the lay of the bets offered.

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possible for him to win again, even after getting previous wins.

Im a natural sceptic, I expect only average luck and if I receive more I dont expect more after that for some time.   I even play that way in Poker when perhaps you might make your own luck at least some of the time.
963  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: who Want To Bet On 2024 USA elections? on: July 30, 2023, 04:47:35 PM
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Yes, with 500 to 1 I would place a $1 bet on Trump, for sure.

No it'll never be even over 50.   People have fanatical desire to vote and to bet for this candidate and he has been president so I dont think of 500 to one now is likely or correct.   However back in 2015 or prior he was seen openly as a joke, I can literally pull out a video clip of on stage comedian joking about a reality tv star as he was then running for the most powerful job in the country.  Yet it happened so back then the improbable was more then possible despite the majority of estimates.   I do see that kind of volatility, broken precedents (for the presidents Tongue) as not over just yet.  
   I cant think of any president who lost a run at reelection and then did come back later for a term.  I know Theodore Roosevelt tried perhaps, he retired but his successor became his opponent.  He got shot in the drama and it was never going to happen as he was the 3rd party candidate but attempts were made where as present day it just doesnt happen like that.   Trump of course wants to try, I dont believe it for the main job but the odds for getting the nomination or not might be more of a sidebet that is the main bet really.
    I dont believe we see Hilary run again though people do make multiple attempts, I'm just saying a president doesn't come back like this for fairly good reasons.  Its not usually considered feasible.
964  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: do you lose on slots? on: July 30, 2023, 01:06:11 PM
Unfortunately more then 5 dollars would be needed to fully play the cycle on a normal slot machine.  The minimum bet will use it up quicker then your luck will turn around I guess.  Its ok for a quick go but I'd agree its unlikely to win back your money or make a profit.  Its no worse then buying a lottery ticket and some people prefer the interaction, like a video game but with money back added its more instant then holding onto a ticket and just hoping thats pretty boring really.    Its a good question what is the minimum to expect a return from a slot machine or a full cycle of wins and losses.   Ask the staff because they see that machine being played the entire day and probably have the best idea of what time or amount is required generally, hard to say otherwise but I think there are rules and laws deciding profitability in most states.
965  Economy / Speculation / Re: The price of a Bitcoin could cost millions of dollars: Standard Chartered on: July 30, 2023, 02:16:26 AM
For those that don’t know. But Standard Chartered had a prediction in Dec 22 right after the FTX implosion that Bitcoin will hit $5000. Pretty much made this prediction right at the bottom.


Its not just Bitcoin or this particular bank, investment banks often make estimates based off current trends and sentiment.   I dont mind them extrapolating but they need to add something to the consideration or the whole repetition of discussion by even experienced market players becomes like an echo box.  Its not useful data, Standard Chartered is a developing country bank with a century of experience so their placement in both the West and across asia could be useful to give feedback on the progression of BTC in those economies.    I cant assume they are doing their homework unfortunately unless they do give some serious data on why they have come to their conclusion its best not to focus too much on 'estimates'.

This is why I prefer charts, basically less noise and interference from present timeline when estimating further out.   Restriction of supply seems to be the main reasoning stated, the demand situation would have been more useful to assess as its altering every day where as we know for sure supply is less next year thats not privileged information.   They are just harvesting views stating a common news story in their own name seems like.
966  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: It's on! 2024 US Presidential Election Biden+Harris Vs Trump Bitcoin betting.... on: July 30, 2023, 01:42:39 AM
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China brokered the peace deal between Iraq - Saudi

Thats a deal that makes sense for China to ensure occurs, a war affecting both countries would greatly be to China's detriment.  China has no real source of oil within its borders so peace in the middle east generally is something its most interested in.  The deal with Ukraine is not so important to them and they have more to gain standing on the sidelines almost literally as they share a border with Russia and are traditionally aligned with their interests.  Again Russia is a large oil supplier with some pipelines to China, the comparison doesnt really stand up as China is compromised in any independence from the issues Russia might have with others.
967  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin to $120k next year - by Robert Kiyosaki on: July 29, 2023, 11:53:17 PM
He didnt actually add anything to the conversation, could it happen sure but I didnt need to be told that.    Give me some detail or understanding why and you might increase my confidence in this event and/or timing which would be a big deal, so mostly hot air is my take mostly.
968  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Will you cheat in gambling? on: July 29, 2023, 09:42:31 PM
Most fair reaction to a widespread bug is reverse or nullify recent games involving that bug.   I dont think you can easily sort those who know and those unaware but still playing the same bug.  Anyone who outright took advantage and repeated actions in a way which exploited the bug may not be treated as fairly to just return the balances back to what they were before prior to the bug.   Everything is audited so I doubt its often a good idea to ignore bugs rather then report them, casinos should reward anyone trying to help them of course.
969  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ESports betting -CS:GO, DOTA 2, LOL, Valorant - Sportsbet.io discussion thread on: July 28, 2023, 11:43:03 PM
Counterstrike major is going on in Cologne with the Intel Extreme Masters play-in matches right now.
https://www.hltv.org/events/6812/iem-cologne-2023-play-in

Its not quite the same as a Major but big money event for sure it matters to ranking etc.      Win a major and you are immortal in the game, name engraved on the trophy and so on.   IEM are long term sponsors, important for sure.    I believe Valve do help sponsor all the big name event type LAN so Im being picky, its quite close to official.   Valve called in all the big 'partners' to talk about LAN format and how they wish contests best to proceed, I would have to find a source for how that might alter in future.
   I think the teams are still settling in and its all a bit unpredictable.  The age of Astralis domination is over, I dont mind that so much they were kinda too perfect for me same as old Fnatic kinda irritated me for some reason.  I feel its best to be careful on these bets, not at all clear how teams are developing.
970  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin is improving I guess? on: July 28, 2023, 11:24:28 PM
40k isnt impossible but improbable near term is the guess of most people.   The reason being the market itself is still reacting to higher Dollar rates and so we remain at an elevated level of Dollar Index, wait for 100 to be lost first of all otherwise this price action is base building.    I think market remains biased to Dollar rather then assets operating without that headline yield from interest rates being higher right now.  
   Inflation is still higher then rates over this year and the last and probably in future, so BTC is easily possible to gain vs dollar ie. higher prices are possible over time.
971  Economy / Economics / Re: MicroStrategy Buys $250M in Bitcoin, Calling the Crypto ‘Superior to Cash’ on: July 28, 2023, 10:39:33 PM
Selling more shares and the price rises represents quite alot of demand then, I agree its likely an ETF proxy.  People should be wary if thats the case as the share price can fall just as much but unlike an ETF he cannot alter the float as easily I presume.   They cannot buy back the shares when required like funds will do to regulate themselves, that would mean the share price could be erratic.
 Probably best to chart MSTR for its market capital and also include a check on any debt instruments or liabilities they have also.
972  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Can Chat GTP destroy poker on-line gambling??? on: July 27, 2023, 11:58:40 PM
Its certainly assistance that would probably be of some positive help to many disorganized players, others wont find AI any use at all maybe a distraction and negative even.   I dont believe its like Chess where it would take moves for you pretty much, Poker is a game of unknowns so it can only help so much in giving out probabilities and some people cant even use that assistance especially; they'll still play it wrong.
  Some games I play not cards or poker have stats and data assisting like a helper to streamline info during a game, its only really quite minor not massive alteration and in theory the game itself could provide this preference if they wanted.
973  Economy / Speculation / Re: $35,000-$37,000 for Bitcoin in 2023 as my peaking barrier, is breakout feasible? on: July 27, 2023, 11:48:35 PM
BTC can always pass 35k and then it will fall right back down below it again.   That could have happened in every month of this year though its become increasingly more probable in line with the lowest prices generally turning around in a regular way, also we have higher moving averages.   So sure 35k  and beyond is possible but the real question is do we  then maintain 35k area long enough to call it support, the groundwork to then provide a base price for further gains.   Thats the only question to me, how solid are the prices achieved as BTC is always with a large enough range fully capable to see many prices for a week or more even if resolving lower later for the month which is the timeline that matters in the larger concern of volume achieved at each price.
974  Economy / Economics / Re: What roles does the poor play in the Economy? on: July 27, 2023, 11:37:59 PM
Cost of Labor is usually represented by the available working age population of a country.  The fighting force, the developing talent the next generation of support in the economy.  Ironically the common poor are the core of a country and most important.  If people are not educated or well fed and able to work its a poor country overall unable to produce properly and unlikely to be effective overall even if there's commodity wealth its not likely stable if the people are not part of the success in a nations economy.
975  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🕹️ Esports 🎮 Prediction & Discussion Thread on: July 27, 2023, 04:11:29 AM
Fnatic is Krimz old school with 4 different nationalities, Australia, British, France and Denmark.  Globetrotter all stars Smiley   I think its a given they will need to develop their potential and teamwork but seem to be doing ok so far.
  I went with what I thought was simple multibet of Astralis and ITB but I might have rushed it as with new team arrangement its all a bit more risky.   Thats a really bad loss for ITB to a good team but still should be closer then that to maintain confidence going forward.  Even Astralis we'll have to see how well they holding up.   
976  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 5 Bitcoins to never gamble again. Will you take it? on: July 26, 2023, 11:57:13 PM
Tempting but the question has a fallacy which is that risk can be removed from a person life.   This is impossible so on those grounds and I would always presume a downside to equal the 5 BTC, I would generally not chase up this offer.   Just like I dont chase all those you have won the lottery mail shots I get every day, sure maybe one of them is real but since I never entered that I doubt the premise just like this dont seem real to me.
  Plenty of card counters or other gamblers got away with stuff they maybe wouldnt always be allowed to, they failed to walk away with their winnings and ended up banned so I would guess most people fail this test.
977  Economy / Economics / Re: Methods to cut food costs on: July 26, 2023, 11:43:05 PM
They are throwing away a ton of food more often in a 1st world country the actual source of food is not uncommon like that despite inflation some of it is attributable to waste.  The reason being massive amounts of red tape in modern economies force the companies to throw away usable food, its less costly for them not to take the risk of hosting anything they could face prosecution for.   Alot of bread just goes off, it used to be loaded with preservatives but these are removed and the bread goes off early for example.  Stale bread can goto into soup for example, any chef will know ideas like this all good.
   So if people are genuinely poor it should be possible to spend time tracking down the wastage of food and obtaining a small amount to eat.  Its a strange dynamic but its not totally new.  I worked in food production some decades ago and one of my colleagues would take the spoiled food which often was only cake with marked icing not any other perfection and he would repackage then sell it at market.   He was a basic worker driving a BMW because of that, just basic initiative.
978  Economy / Economics / Re: Should I Use Emergency funds or Sell my Assets ? on: July 25, 2023, 11:59:17 PM
Selling assets usually has a spread cost to the deal which cannot be ignored.  Ideally you dont want to sell something you immediately are wanting to own the next month, but if you can sell an asset thats going to go down in price then you have the ideal scenario.   Really hard to advise anyone as the variety of assets will each have a different dynamic and time frame to its ideal ownership but even gold has spread cost so I presume it will be generally true for you.   I'd use plain capital funds personally, paper money loses value most often but also you have to stay liquid the assets can become locked up in the market and entirely illiquid in some cases.  Do a bit of both.
979  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Olympic Games, but doping is allowed?! on: July 25, 2023, 11:47:14 PM
Some conditions (even purely legal sports practise with extended exercise etc.) I've seen in recent sport careers have led to premature death and also health issues after leaving the game.  It is relevant then, if you are worse off within 10 or 20 years then it cost more then you believed it would.  For most people drug use isnt worth it, we use drugs in hospitals and medicine because its required but for sport or entertainment the answer is quite clear that its not a risk worth taking quite often thats become obvious.
980  Economy / Speculation / Re: Should I buy now or I should still wait for the dip? on: July 25, 2023, 10:14:02 PM
All of this is the dip, cant be clearer then that.    Most people dont get all their money at once, for most its income saved and I would just buy according to some percentage of that.  Now is a reasonable time to take an interest, if people could buy BTC at 50k and find it reasonable then really we've only experienced a speculative pullback which is normal and happened many many times prior before recovering etc.
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