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1  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: January 18, 2021, 12:35:27 PM
Does any body know, if there is an actual and updated S2F model somewhere online  Huh Roll Eyes
The best i found, is this --> https://www.reddit.com/r/xmrtrader/comments/iiida8/monero_stocktoflow_chart/

The best application of stock to flow in Monero is in this twitter thread by @CryptoMorpheus_

https://twitter.com/CryptoMorpheus_/status/1310055586915115008?s=20
2  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: December 21, 2020, 12:28:44 AM

They would need to make a lot of transactions to be successful. And once ring signature will raise it will make their work exponentially harder. Also lets say two agencies want to do this attack. KGB and CIA. While one of them is adding transactions it is just making other agency work harder.

I doubt it is the large scale attack Anonymity outlined in his 2017 hit piece. As you point out, with modern ring sizes and more than one attacker it becomes impossible. However, they are almost certainly dusting wallets of interest.
3  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: December 20, 2020, 01:08:06 PM
There is no incentive for anyone to pay for a transaction other than to move XMR.

I believe most of the transaction volume growth is organic, however, this statement is not strictly true. The privacy features of XMR provide incentive for attackers to transact in an attempt to weaken the privacy. Lets not forget the IRS bounty on tracking Monero.

Gavin visited the CIA in 2011. The Snowden leaks revealed the NSA was tracking bitcoin users as early as 2013. In 2018 the department of defence ran war game scenarios involving a Bitcoin rebellion.  If the public even becomes aware of these initiatives it is typically years later.

Rest assured the public IRS announcement is not the only well resourced adversary trying to unravel Monero privacy. They are guaranteed to be running nodes, making transactions, monitoring the networking layer, collecting metadata, and tracking outputs.
4  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: November 15, 2020, 04:25:34 PM
Art this point I think the salient question is do we punch through the floor?  Or do we make a higher low.

Place your bets.


I am watching that trend line as well. I bet higher low. The selling volume below 0.78 was pretty unimpressive. We landed right back in our 15 month long accumulation range with a higher low. I can't imagine whomever scooped up the coins on this dip is looking to sell here. My guess is that someone used the recent spike as an opportunity exit a low conviction position. We may go lower, but after a year in this zone and the tail emission rapidly approaching, we will run out of low conviction holders eventually.
5  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 07, 2019, 11:51:42 PM

Valid concerns. What you can do in the "thug-with-a-hammer case", is to store a very small amount of coins in the wallet that corresponds to the seed alone (without a passphrase), or use a second, decoy passphrase. So, if anyone comes with a $5 wrench and tries to torture you, try to resist as much as you can, and then reveal the decoy passphrase. Let him have whatever small amount you've put in there.

Perhaps an extreme case of plausible deniability would be this example:

You have 100 BTC. You store 1 BTC in the wallet with just the seed (no passphrase). You store 5 BTC in the wallet with the decoy passphrase. You store the remaining 94 BTC in the wallet with the main passphrase (which you NEVER reveal).

Thug-with-a-hammer kidnaps you and starts torturing you. You play difficult, but soon enough you reveal the seed. He gets your 1 BTC and sets you free. That's the best-case scenario. But he may be smart... He suspects you have an additional passphrase, so he tortures you more. You resist, and at some point you "break" and reveal the decoy passphrase in crying tears... You beg him to leave you the 1 BTC and take the 5. He grabs everything (of course) and leaves. You still have 94 BTC.

All of the above can be done with only one Trezor or Ledger, and there is no way for anyone to tell how many passphrases you're using in addition to the seed. In fact, you're already using an infinite number of passphrases (wallets), they're just empty. It's an immensely beautiful mathematical construct.

The above example seems quite extreme, I know, but soon we'll be hearing about such kidnappings, and we must be prepared. Bitcoin, being non-physical, is a double-edged sword. That's why it's a stupid, immature thing to boast and advertise how much BTC you have. Because if you're stupid enough to advertise you have 100 BTC, you can be absolutely sure that the "thug-with-a-hammer" will torture you like hell until you give him all your coins...

You still have 94 BTC until malware hidden in the closed source hardware of Trezor executes and drains the remaining BTC.

Did you generate the entropy yourself? Inspect the hardware with an electron microscope? Audit the source of every Trezor firmware update? 100 BTC belong in a multi-vendor, multi-hardware, multi-location, multi-sig setup.
6  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: July 03, 2019, 11:40:11 PM
I updated things on my nano S. All went smooth. Was tempted to buy Model T, but then will just have to keep two different hardware wallets development and updates. So I will give it a bit more thinking Smiley

Anyway is great Monero can be now stored on two hardware wallets.  Two years ago that was a dream.

Easy on device entry of a strong password is a valuable security feature and was enough for me to retire my Ledger. Many of the recent hardware wallet exploits are thwarted by a strong password, and it gives plausible deniability in case of the dreaded $5 wrench attack. This plausible deniability is especially strong in the case of monero, since nobody knows your address or balance. Unlimited private wallets on a single device. (although you can technically do this on ledger, the horrible user interface makes strong passwords impractical unless you are a masochist) Further, you can initialize your Trezor offline with python trezor, and load a custom seed generated with casino grade dice for the ultimate airgapped + HW wallet setup for multiple layers of defense.
7  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: June 29, 2019, 11:41:44 AM
Decoded message from outer space:  

Quote from: that guy
As soon as Bitcoin reaches 20k and new ATH, new hype will start. At that time fresh money will start to pour into Bitcoin and from there into alts.  Right now there is no fresh money. Or very little and Bitcoin grow from altcoins. When this will happen who knows.

The retail investors never came back into the stock market after they got fleeced in 2008. The supply of greater fools is not unlimited. The boomers are getting old and more financially conservative. The Millennials do not have any money.

This turn up for BTC appears to be institutions taking over, as they replace the shitcoins with Facebook’s Libra and then prepare to back Libra with Bitcoin after the Core riff-raff are fleeced with the SegWit donations (c.f. also the BCTalk thread).

Libra replacing shitcoins is an amusing narrative. Bitcoin maximalists hate altcoins so much they are trying to meme this into existence. Funny how quick they abandon their cypherpunk ideals when the price is going up. They'll take Evil-corps dystopian coin over any legitimate free market competition to their bags.

When do you think they will figure out that a stable coin will never replace altcoin gambling? Price go up is the game. Price go sideways is never going to replace price go up. Furthermore, do they ever wonder why the "better" stable coins such as GUSD haven't replaced tether? Pull at that thread and you'll realize that no only will facebook coin not replace alt-coins, but it won't even replace tether.  The market will eventually figure this out, but the memes are slow and the herd is dumb. Bitcoin maximalists are incorrigible.
8  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: June 26, 2019, 09:58:31 AM
Incoming FUD alert.  Tone Vays hating on XMR:

https://youtu.be/7YWNwra9T5k?t=1665

Some notable excerpts:

1) "Monero's privacy is useless."

2) "It's just the Venezuelan peso with privacy."

3) "Monero will never retain value."

4) "I am buying a new computer, even though this one is $3000 and just 2 years old. I abused the hell out of it."  Huh

I suggest that Comment 4 be carefully considered when assessing the credibility of Comments 1--3.





You forgot his most infamous excerpt: $1300 bitcoin. Any of Tone's followers here sell at 3500 waiting to buy back in?  Roll Eyes
9  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: January 19, 2019, 04:49:36 PM
Prices are good right now for accumulators, always useful to hold some XMR bags as it has a real world use albeit a dark one. People have guns at home for protection, it is worth having some monero as well, never know when it might come in useful.

This point is vastly underrated. The prepper community stockpiles guns and supplies completely ignorant that their preparations are useless against their most likely adversary: government. The lesson of the 20th century is that governments are highly effective genocide institutions with a death toll of approximately 203 million.

Government death toll by century:
  • 18th century: ~18 million
  • 19th century: ~ 45 million
  • 20th century: ~ 203 million

The 21st century is off to a slower start, but I expect the trend to continue. The number of displaced persons just hit a record high at 68.5 million. Things haven't even gotten bad yet from a geopolitical perspective. We will see record numbers murdered by the government in this century.

Preppers are watching doom porn and prepping for fictional scenarios. They are delusional to think their small arms stockpile will have any meaningful impact on their survival in the face of war or democide. My bugout bag consists of a hardware wallet with a year of living expenses. Bitcoin (and even more so Monero) are incredibly powerful tools for freedom. Far more than an AR-15 in your basement. If you haven't already, listen to this interview with Alex Gladstein of the human rights foundation on Why Bitcoin Matters for Freedom
10  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: December 29, 2018, 12:45:43 PM

Not even a minuscule fraction of the 4 billion can use Bitcoin which is why I sold out of Bitcoin into Monero over 3 years ago. By the way Lighting Network will not solve this issue. Just read the LN paper https://lightning.network/lightning-network-paper.pdf page 55 where they talk about 133 MB blocks under very optimistic assumptions just to open and close LN channels.

133 mb blocks for 7 billion people all running their own nodes opening only 2 CHANNELS PER YEAR with zero on-chain transactions. Those are some wild assumptions! Shocked

My raspberry Pi lightning node has been syncing for 30 days and is only at 85%. We need smaller blocks not larger Roll Eyes The bitcoin maximalists have some serious cognitive dissonance to resolve. The good news for them is their chain is likely to be superseded before they have to resolve these fundamentally incompatible design goals.
11  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: December 22, 2018, 05:14:59 PM
Can the regs from this thread suggest which other alt besides XMR is (are) worth looking into?  And by that I mean a coin with good code/tech/devs that I can buy and forget in cold storage.  

Thanks.
And only other coin on my radar is Grin (not launched afaik).


Grin will have some hype and speculation around its launch, but it's dead on arrival. Their protocol name isn't the only thing derived from Harry Potter: their understanding of economics is also completely fictional.

Quote
We may not know ahead of time if action is foolish, but reality knows - Nassim Nicholas Taleb

They are virtue signalling with their emission schedule. Freicoin already tried this virtue signalling fictional economics nonsense. Grin is foolish, but their developers don't realize this. Reality knows and is about to show them.
12  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: December 14, 2018, 07:17:43 PM
I decided that I would sell all my Monero coins and buy Ethereum, it seems to me that it is much more promising and will be able to show much more growth than Monero does. Which coin do you think is stronger? Something I stopped believing in Monero, too many competitors.

Have you done any fundamental analysis on appcoins? I'd love to see what you come up with because every fundamental analysis I've seen supports the near-universal conclusions that ETH is overvalued even at current price levels.

https://medium.com/john-pfeffer/an-institutional-investors-take-on-cryptoassets-690421158904
https://blog.bitmex.com/ether-a-double-digit-shitcoin/
https://research.bloomberg.com/pub/res/d37g1yWebn9LbRbS09rquSuSoDQ

World computer and D-apps are nonsense and there just isn't any money in crypto kitties. However, It'll have a few pump and dumps before the price falls in line with fundamentals, maybe you'll get lucky and time it right.
13  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: November 03, 2018, 03:22:00 PM

What Taleb meant is that the longer something survives the more robust, or anti-fragile it tends to become.  But I don't think that meant an eternal half-life.

Taleb specifically addresses robustness vs antifragility and they shouldn't be used interchangeably

Robustness is static durability. A concrete wall is more robust than a wooden fence. However, on a long enough timeframe, shocks large enough to destroy both structures are guaranteed and they have no mechanism to adapt, so they will be destroyed. The more robust structure can be expected to last longer. However, small shocks to the system won't improve it's expected duration. Intermittently hitting your concrete wall with a hammer won't improve its life expectancy.

Antifragility is a property of systems that specifically gain from disorder. Antifragile systems must have mechanisms for repair and adaptation. Biological evolution is the example. The culling of unfit individuals from populations by prior shocks to the system actually increases the resilience to unpredictable future stressors. Bone density is another example. Small shocks to your bones through controlled weight lifting will decrease your chances of long bone fractures to larger stressors.

Lindy does not mean bitcoin will only live another 10 years. Nor does it imply a symmetrical relationship (as is being suggested above). The most common example of the Lindy effect is in actuarial life expectancy tables. Your life expectancy is SHORTEST at birth. Every additional year you live, your life expectancy increases. For men in the United States, your life expectancy is 75.4 at birth but increases to 79 at age 50. Saying a male who lives 10 years is expected to live another 10 is a gross misunderstanding of the concept. Lindy simply means the life expectancy grows with time, by some unknown factor. Lindy applies most directly to memes, and has no application to strictly perishable good. Humans are partially perishable, so obviously, the lindy factor is much lower than for art or technology.
14  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: September 14, 2018, 06:10:38 PM

The historical price of XMR with three random lines drawn on it.
15  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: September 03, 2018, 07:27:28 PM
"The possibility exists that 1 billion in bitcoin could black-swan dive into Monero tomorrow"

Is it tomorrow already?

Given that rational investors are well aware that when maximalists chant, "Decentralized! Censorship resistant!" in their quest to distance themselves from shitcoins, they also point out that if those are the value proposition for a cryptocurrency, then Monero is more valuable.

So maybe tomorrow, tomorrow--

To-morrow, and to-morrow, and to-morrow,
Creeps in this petty pace from trade to trade,
To the last block of monero mined;
And all our yesterdays have lighted shitcoins
The way to dusty death.
16  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: September 03, 2018, 12:25:32 AM

The possibility exists that 1 billion in bitcoin could black-swan dive into Monero tomorrow. It doesn't matter, however, it's bullish for Monero regardless.

This obscene public spectacle with hunderds of people on r/bitcoin pouring over the forensic details of this transaction is a giant advertisement to anyone with two neurons that bitcoin is non-viable as a store of value and currency. This individual is one KYC leak away from the entire world knowing their net worth and identity. I hope they trust every single employee at Bitfinex, Binance, and Bitmex. Their life may depend on it. 1 billion in crypto is nation state level threat model.
17  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: August 11, 2018, 10:32:11 PM
The patterns we have relied on when early adopter "whales" with no trading specialization were able to pump and dump reliably are no longer in control of the market.

I disagree.  The major p&d cycle that made us wealthy is still there, and will remain there until the adoption curve slows significantly.  That has happened in several coins, but has not yet happened in Monero.  It has to rise simply because the fundamental value continues to rise.

I was thinking in terms of the broader market, specifically bitcoin which seems to be driving the prevailing crypto currency down trend. My theory is a suspicion at best, based on analysis of pedestrian information sources, and is clearly unsubstantiated. I would love to have access to the data at the big exchanges. I am happy to be corrected and defer to you analysis.
18  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: August 09, 2018, 11:50:41 AM
Im retiring from crypto today and move on to bigger better things.
Its a little bit like a divorce after all those years, but its time to watch girls dance instead of cryptocoins.
This is the market as it developed over the years from the first know trade-able price known  featuring 20 coins.
Copy, quote and share at free will
https://i.imgur.com/QK9752K.png


Adios

Sorry to see you go but why are you shilling BCRAP in this thread?
It is against this threads rules.

He's leaving for the same reason he's shilling Bcrap. He's an idiot or a scammer. Nobody with half a brain looks at that clown car of scammers and says "these are some solid fundamentals".  Nigerian prince email scams use broken English to screen for gullibility. Bcash is the same. Anyone who falls for their marketing is self identifying as intellectually deficient to an extent that they are easily exploitable.  The other half of that group are the ones doing the exploiting. So he's an idiot or a scammer.
19  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: August 09, 2018, 11:45:06 AM
I've come to realise that no-one knows where this is going.

Lines on charts, candlesticks, Elliot waves, it's all bollocks.

All I know is that XMR is fungible, private, sovereignless money.

There is a very limited number of units (measured in 20-25 million over the next 15 years), ergo eventually, with use, the price will rise.

There is no better money currently available. The price may go up or down in the short term, however, in the long term I just cannot see this not appreciating.

Anyone who tells you they know where the price is going in the short term in the absence of asymmetric information is the definition of dumb money. There is a LOT of dumb money in crypto. It's mostly dumb money in fact, but that is changing. If some guy on youtube can predict the future with charts and lines, he would start a hedge fund and be a billionaire, not begging for handouts and shilling affiliate links to their teenage followers.

What we are seeing now is the arrival of the professional traders. The patterns we have relied on when early adopter "whales" with no trading specialization were able to pump and dump reliably are no longer in control of the market. Minor news events used to move the market 20%. Now we get a hardware wallet and nothing happens. The professionals have much deeper pockets and much more patience and they will shake this tree until every last weak hand cries uncle and lets go. They will bleed this thing for every last drop of blood. Then we pump. But it won't be with their own money, it will be their customers. Institutional custodial solutions and fiat pipes that can handle billions. I've got my popcorn ready.
20  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: August 08, 2018, 10:47:20 PM
Quote
The streets are extended gutters and the gutters are full of blood and when the drains finally scab over, all the vermin will drown. The accumulated filth of all their sex and murder  scams and ICOs will foam up about their waists and all the whores and politicians altcoiners and eth huffers will look up and shout 'SAVE US!'...and I'll look down and whisper 'No.

- Alan Moore, Watchmen  

Starting to look bloody. The only question is do I venture forth to loot the corpses now, or repress the urge and whisper 'No'.

Quote
Now, when you read material by finance professors, finance gurus, or your local bank making investment recommendations based on the long-term returns of the market, beware. Even if their forecasts were true (they aren’t), no individual can get the same returns as the market unless he has infinite pockets and no uncle points. This is conflating ensemble probability and time probability. If the investor has to eventually reduce his exposure because of losses, or because of retirement, or because he got divorced to marry his neighbor’s wife, or because he suddenly developed a heroin addiction after his hospitalization for appendicitis, or because he changed his mind about life, his returns will be divorced from those of the market, period.

Anyone who has survived in the risk-taking business more than a few years has some version of our by now familiar principle that “in order to succeed, you must first survive.” My own has been: “never cross a river if it is on average four feet deep.”

- Nassim Taleb, Skin in the Game

Anybody ready to cry uncle?
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