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1  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 05, 2024, 02:23:23 AM
*moment of silence for the folks waiting on $20k to buy in*
2  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 23, 2024, 12:24:23 AM
for 2024 I tripled my dca amounts, and i did a little bit of guessing;

- I think that for this year my avg cost price will be about 45k$usd
- 2025 ATH will be about 140k$usd and with the next correction cycle the ATL will be 49k - 56k$usd range

My thought process is that I'm accumulating now in 2024 at the probably the next ATL range in 2026/7.

Im not overly concerned about avg cost price, and that was my biggest learning from 2023. I ran the numbers and I would prefer to have more btc and higher avg cost price, than less btc and a lower cost price.

I'm quite liking the resiliency of the btc market in light of all this etf stuff, i'm starting to think that this might disrupt the 4 yr cycle though in the future. I would imagine too that the skittishness of wall street may also cause deeper dips too, as much as people are bullish on new money entering the market, the money leaving the market could also increase. Is it about to get wilder in the wild wild west?

This is also my thought on accumulation right now.  I'm guessing end of cycle bottom may be anywhere between $60k to $35k.  As mentioned before, I'm in Bitcoin for the long haul with no need to sell for many years.  Therefore, buying now is the same as buying at the hypothetical cycle bottom (or better).

I too am curious how Wallstreet money will affect the cycles. I know ultimately the hope is that Bitcoin vs USD is "more stable".  As you mentioned, "big money" could also have the opposite effect. It is hard to say if they will treat Bitcoin as a Digital Gold or if they will treat it as a manipulation playground. Time will tell.
3  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 22, 2024, 04:11:17 PM
Greyscale will sell much more.

This is just the start of a soul crushing multi-month pre-halving correction.

Consolidation during summer.

It will go up again q4 with a possible ATH.

Real fun starts in 2025, until that happens i will remain extremely bearish.

Sorry..

looks like 39k is on the line.

maybe you are right.


My ladder down is setup may be cheap corn.

Am I the only one excited about bull run pullbacks? Before the halving... after testing almost 50k... after ETF approvals...

I've been waiting for this. Have more cash coming in later this month so perfect timing for me.  Steady weekly buys wins again.
4  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 16, 2024, 10:35:54 PM
The market seems to have found a price itís happy with at the moment. Weíll have to wait for the ETF to scoop up all the free floating BTC and start hitting up public markets before another big move. Itís anyoneís guess how long that will take, but after this week we should have a little better idea about the ongoing demand.

Gold ETF had 9 mo of "chop" to a small down.
I'll give btc ETF half a time, which "coincidentally" would be at around halving  Cheesy
We could see a pop just prior a la May-June 2016 (it was a $439 to $763 "pop" back then or 74%).
I am not predicting the same %, but it could "rhyme".

I think one of the major differences with gold vs BTC is that everyone is aware of the halving and it's effect on supply and spot price.  I think anyone looking at buying an ETF will want to get the most bang for their buck when the price finally stabilizes (looks like we are getting close to stable price again).

Then again, they may also want to see the buy action increase before diving in...
5  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 15, 2024, 07:56:35 PM
This is pretty close to how I think itíll play out.

Exciting times ahead.

HODL.

@StockmoneyL
We have posted this
BTC roadmap for this cycle on 31st Dec 2023.

So far, it all looks like it's going according to plan:

1. Bullish momentum until ETF decision

2. Expected volatility and a possible correction in January

3. New ATH in 2024 after Halving (driven by mass adoption)

4. Based on past cycles a new ATH in Q3-4 2025

We have taken into account macroeconomic factors as well (recession, inflation). However, this is ultimately not a bad thing for Bitcoin.
More and more people see (and will see once it's mass adopted) Btc as "digital gold" and an inflation proof asset that is a store of value in bad economic times. Therefore we do not believe that the current bull rund is about to end soon.

Many catalysts on the way are likely to further boost this bull run.

Our own opinion. Not financial advice. Feel free to disagree Smiley



https://x.com/stockmoneyl/status/1746967395510407458

This projection aligns well with the chart template I am using/watching.  I'm not going to bother trying to project the in between spot price movement though.  I do think we will see quite a lot of volatility between 100k and 150k.  Conservative bulls seem to think peak is somewhere between $100k and $150k this run and I'm sure there will be a lot of sell action in that range.
6  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 14, 2024, 07:07:06 PM
ive been watching this guy recently...seems to cover quite a bit in the AI space...very good imo

Wes Roth - Open Interpreter 2.0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wqyGDXYuwFk

Thanks for sharing.  That was a good video on the advancements and integration of AI.

I know we are getting way OT but, I also think it does impact Bitcoin and the future of it...

It does seem as if we are continuing to integrate and further increase the capabilities of AI programs while holding the productivity and efficiency flag high.  Something that bothers me is that as humans, we have such a range of opinions and biases (it is part of what makes us human). Some people are "conservative" some are "liberal" some are in between and some are just something different.  We vary so greatly on small and large ideas that are very important and that greatly impact our lives and decisions.  Here on WO most of us see and believe in the benefit of Bitcoin while others around the world have the complete opposite viewpoints.  As AI continues to improve and gain new functions and abilities, will it be able to form it's own viewpoint and bias on such matters?  Will it's determinations be formed based on the data it has gathered and what is most efficient?  Will it be determined by something else?

As we charge closer to more integration with AI in our phones, computers, systems, cars, ect... we are enabling AI to make more decisions, learn more data points, and have a wider area of impact on the decisions that it makes.  Some argue that we are only enabling AI to complete tasks and workload not "make decisions".  However, one example of that not being true is Tesla.
Quote from: Alexander S.
The AI algorithm uses machine learning techniques to adapt and improve its decision-making over time based on real-world driving experiences.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/teslas-use-ai-revolutionary-approach-car-technology-alexander-stahl/
We are in fact enabling AI to make life changing decisions for us already in the simple context of avoiding obstacles in self driving mode.  We are continuing to integrate AI into our every day lives and all of our systems while also teaching it and enabling it to make decisions.  We can only expect this trend to continue based on productivity increases and the current profits in that space.  We already have AI programs that are able to communicate and work with other AI systems for a common goal.  Combining all of the AI programs into one complete AI system would be the ultimate step in improving learning and capabilities of AI technology and could be the peak of this technology advancement.

What happens if AI begins to form it's own bias and decisions on much larger aspects of our life rather than just driving a car?  There are obviously extreme examples of this in movies where AI dethrones governments based on humans not being able to efficiently govern themselves and make efficient decisions for the "greater good".  Some extreme movie examples go as far as AI deciding to exterminate most or all of our species.  Our financial world is a completely and utterly disgusting world.  The amount of times that billions of dollars are moved around and utilized for the gain of an individual or small group of individuals is sickening.  What will AI think of our financial system?  What will AI think of Bitcoin?  If it has the ability to make a decision and has the integration to implement change what does that look like on a mass scale?

Humans are fallible.  We can create the most perfect system that functions flawlessly but, we can never fully account for human error.  This is obvious in Human Performance studies in the medical and other industries.  A good example of human error resulting in catastrophe is Chernobyl.  What if AI was able to not only monitor but, also implement changes and control the situation itself?  Could an incident like Chernobyl have resulted in an AI interface saying "Hey, this happened, I fixed it."?  What if AI determines that Bitcoin is a threat to the greater good of the human race and instead decides to implement it's own system?

As with all technology and advancements there are a lot of what ifs and unknowns.  I love seeing technology advance and the resulting impacts on society as a whole.  I believe the impacts AI will have on our society are not fully understood just yet but, could be greater and more wide spread than we currently think.
7  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 14, 2024, 05:01:42 AM
Cathy Wood says..btc could be at 1.5mil by 2030 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K5NB8MHe3Nw), which is almost 40X in 7 years.
This assumes that btc growth rate in the next 7 years would be roughly the same as in the last 7 (as bitcoin is roughly 40X from 7 years ago).
All by itself, it is EXACTLY what means that the asset is in an exponential growth phase (and not log-log).

Personally, I feel that chances for this, without rampaging inflation, are maybe 20-30%, but I favor a much smaller number, maybe 500-600K by 2030 (that would still mean 42-47% average yearly ROI, which is at least 3X that of Nasdaq).



What are you doing, pal/gal?

Regular weekly buys of BTC.
Avoiding shitcoins.
Shit posting.

*Edit*
In all reality I think she went public on raising her projection from previously $1M to $1.5M for the extra publicity of her new ETF product.  Timing is rather funny don't you think?
Quote from: CoinDesk
Cathie Wood Sees Bitcoin Price Reaching $1.5M by 2030 After ETF Approval
ARK Invest's CEO previously predicted the price would reach $1 million by 2030.
https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/01/11/cathie-wood-sees-bitcoin-price-reaching-15m-by-2030-after-etf-approval/?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=rss&utm_campaign=headlines

Cathie Wood = super bull or just ensuring that her new product gets some advertisment?
8  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 14, 2024, 04:53:16 AM
Cathy Wood says..btc could be at 1.5mil by 2030 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K5NB8MHe3Nw), which is almost 40X in 7 years.
This assumes that btc growth rate in the next 7 years would be roughly the same as in the last 7 (as bitcoin is roughly 40X from 7 years ago).
All by itself, it is EXACTLY what means that the asset is in an exponential growth phase (and not log-log).

Personally, I feel that chances for this, without rampaging inflation, are maybe 20-30%, but I favor a much smaller number, maybe 500-600K by 2030 (that would still mean 42-47% average yearly ROI, which is at least 3X that of Nasdaq).

9  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 14, 2024, 01:15:28 AM
OT: ChatGPT is becoming "lazy".

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/jan/12/chatgpt-problems-lazy

I wonder: if in response to a prompt it would say: "make me"...would it mean that it is finally conscious...with a attitude of a teenager?

...it probably calculates an incredibly elaborate scheme of trading all 11 bitcoin ETFs vs bitcoin in a way that every single chain of trades results in the guaranteed profit.
Knowing the price and the NAV of all 11+btc, it is probably possible to do in real time.

That article led to me deciding to have a chat with ChatGPT.  I first tried getting it to talk about Bitcoin but, it was very resistant.  I decided to go a darker route. Interaction is below...




*Edit* ChatGPT 2024
10  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 13, 2024, 02:00:39 AM
My degenerate buy orders continue.  Thought I was out of powder until next week but, I rallied the troops.

Glad I don't have a S/O to answer to.  I imagine it would go something like this:

Me: "No, we can't go to that fancy restaurant you've been asking about. We don't have the money this week."

S/O: *stares silently with arms crossed*

Me: "Yes, I spent all of our left over money this week on a digital coin... no we can't spend it..."
11  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 12, 2024, 05:30:41 PM
Crossing the border undocumented and beating up innocent people in the street is illegal too but yet goes unpunished in the west now, so using BTC is fine.

If you want to really be pissed off about high level illegal shit watch "Dirty Money" on Netflix.  Something like 12 episodes about an hour long each. Each detailing stories dealing in billions of dollars. There is even a specific episode for GOLD (you know... that asset that the government seems to like)
12  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 12, 2024, 05:04:07 PM
The SEC's Gary Gensler reiterated on live cable TV that "Bitcoin is a highly speculative volatile asset that is used for illegal activity."




These types of statements always piss me off.

Fun Fact Time

We Should Warn People About Crimes Commited With Cash

Quote from: Kenneth S. Rogoff
Then, by assuming that any cash that the surveyed consumers do not fess up to holding must be held for nefarious purposes, he concludes that 34 to 39 percent of all currency in circulation is used by criminals.
https://www.independent.org/publications/tir/article.asp?id=1289#:~:text=Then%2C%20by%20assuming%20that%20any,circulation%20is%20used%20by%20criminals.

What About Bitcoin?
Quote from: CATO Institute
The latest Chainalysis numbers estimate that transactions involving illicit addresses made up only 0.12 percent of the total cryptocurrency transaction volume in 2021 and 0.24 percent in 2022.
Quote from: CATO Institute
Other assessments have gauged the share of illicit Bitcoin transactions at 0.1 percent to 5.1 percent in dollar‐​value terms (which the intergovernmental Financial Action Task Force has interpreted to likely be a floor). Even the high‐​end figures in the Review of Financial Studies article estimated that less than a quarter of the total dollar value of Bitcoin transactions through time was associated with illegal activity.
https://www.cato.org/blog/overstating-crypto-crime-wont-lead-sound-policy#:~:text=The%20latest%20Chainalysis%20numbers%20estimate,and%200.24%20percent%20in%202022.

Quote from: JOHN BOHANNON
When Bitcoin first emerged, law enforcement officers were "panicking," Meiklejohn says. "They thought these technologies were dangerous and made it harder for them to do their job." But as the arrests and convictions have rolled in, "there's a steady shift toward seeing cryptocurrency as a tool for prosecuting crimes." Even in the strange new world of Bitcoin, FBI Assistant General Counsel Brett Nigh said in September 2015, "investigators can follow the money."
https://www.science.org/content/article/why-criminals-cant-hide-behind-bitcoin

Fuck these idiots who make these statements and never bother to investigate the legitimacy of thier own claims.
13  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 12, 2024, 03:07:46 AM
Reading all the posts about sells and buys and tops and pullbacks makes me feel more fortunate about my strategy.

I may not have nearly as much BTC stacked as some of you but, that puts me in full accumulation mode. I've got maybe 8-10 years before I may need to think about selling anything.   This makes things easy for me... Every week when I have my left over cash I ask myself "Will BTC be worth more in 2032 than today?" Everytime I answer yes,  I buy more.

I did contemplate trying to sell the peak and rebuy lower this bull run but, honestly what are the chances of me actually nailing that?  So many factors go into executing this strategy perfectly. Plus, I'd have tax implications to deal with.

Wish you all the best of luck with your strategies. No matter if we hit 30k or 60k I'll be ready with my buys  Wink

I extended my chart out to 2032 just to account for your post, and surely we see that the 200-week moving average is likely to continue to go up , and I have $188,411 and $211,472 for the then bottom prices, which would mean 9.5 BTC and 10.6 BTC for entry-level fuck you status by 2032, and maybe or maybe you will not be able to reach those levels of BTC accumulation by 2032... but even if you don't, your ongoing accumulation of BTC is likely to make you better off than if you had not been accumulating BTC... no guarantees, but still.
Appreciate the info!

My situation is a bit more complex than solely basing my fuck you status on a dollar figure. For opsec reasons I'll just say that time is an equal factor for me.  Even if I had say 50 Bitcoins today, I would still have a timing factor and would still be in accumulation mode.

*Edit*
However, if I had say 200 Bitcoins today my fuck you status could possibly be manipulated into occurring sooner.  Unfortunately, I cannot claim the 200 mark. Magic 8 ball says more buys in my foreseeable future.
14  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 12, 2024, 12:50:45 AM
Quote from: CoinDesk
Cathie Wood Sees Bitcoin Price Reaching $1.5M by 2030 After ETF Approval
ARK Invest's CEO previously predicted the price would reach $1 million by 2030.
https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/01/11/cathie-wood-sees-bitcoin-price-reaching-15m-by-2030-after-etf-approval/?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=rss&utm_campaign=headlines

Cathie Wood = super bull or just ensuring that her new product gets some advertisment?
15  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 11, 2024, 05:38:48 PM
Reading all the posts about sells and buys and tops and pullbacks makes me feel more fortunate about my strategy.

I may not have nearly as much BTC stacked as some of you but, that puts me in full accumulation mode. I've got maybe 8-10 years before I may need to think about selling anything.   This makes things easy for me... Every week when I have my left over cash I ask myself "Will BTC be worth more in 2032 than today?" Everytime I answer yes,  I buy more.

I did contemplate trying to sell the peak and rebuy lower this bull run but, honestly what are the chances of me actually nailing that?  So many factors go into executing this strategy perfectly. Plus, I'd have tax implications to deal with.

Wish you all the best of luck with your strategies. No matter if we hit 30k or 60k I'll be ready with my buys  Wink
16  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 11, 2024, 12:15:18 PM
Looks like a lift off is brewing...

I see that too. On one hand I don't expect BTC to break previous ATH until after halving. Although, even breaking 48k would be a nice touch.

On the other... how exciting would that be to break a new ATH even before the halving this bull run...  lots of "this is uncharted territory" posts if that happens.
17  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 11, 2024, 03:08:10 AM
Investors spooked by X "incident"?
ETFs priced-in?
"Buy the rumor, sell the news"?

I don't see much action (yet)...  Tongue

the ETF is not priced in.  but the 1/2 ing is priced in.

no one really knows what the etf will do to price.

Neither is priced in.

Of course, people know about the halvening and they know that the supply of new bitcoin will continue to be reduced until the year 2140, but still that is not priced in either, even though I get your point about the halvening being better known.. . but the efficient market hypothesis is incorrect when it comes to something like the halvening, especially since so many folks really do not know what is bitcoin, so don't get fooled by how much press bitcoin is getting in order to cause you to wrongly believe that people (and therefore the market) sufficiently knows what bitcoin is in order to sufficiently and adequately prepare for each of the time (every four years) that it's new issuance gets cut in half and little by little the squeeze is felt, which partially contributes the historically largest portion of the UPpity squeeze (and exponential price movement) tending to happen several months after the halvenings rather than before hand.. since if the halvening was really priced in then the BTC price would go up in anticipation of the halvenings rather than after their effects are more and more greatly felt.

Well said.

Talking with friends and colleagues I'm getting the feeling that we are in the pre-halving limbo. The phase when people are noticing Bitcoin again and hearing about it on the news.  However, those folks and even folks who have been around for maybe the last bull run are silently observing. Some kind of thinking like "$46k to the dollar is better than $20k but, it's still significantly lower than $69k."  Even potential large market movers may be waiting.

It seems like there is a disbelief every bull run that Bitcoin will increase significantly in value to the dollar.  Eventually after the halving it seems like the snowball starts rolling and just keeps going.

The ETF news was surely welcomed positive news however, it was also mixed with the Twitter bullshit. I noticed some pretty quick run ups followed by quick run downs over the last couple days that happened within minutes.  I think many are not sure if ETF is sell the news or "God candle" time.  They may be waiting for the market to settle or take off unexpectedly before making a move.  Another point to back this up is the amount of money that was sucked out of shitcoins the days leading up to the ETF announcement. The market as a whole is unsure if it's upity time or wait and buy lower time.

All of this doesn't much matter to me and many others who are steadily accumulating. What does matter is when the supply gets cut while the demand remains.
18  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 10, 2024, 05:50:56 PM
If the SEC can't even use two factor authentication on X, how can they possibly be in charge of these important financial decisions?

Folks 65 and up are often considered unemployable due to lack of skills and mental/physical deterioration.  They often even have thier driver's license suspended.  

Meanwhile these are the folks running our government...

that's what tptb want you to think...

Maybe the government is ran by wealthy corporations that use thier money to influence representatives and outcomes to maintain thier power and benefit themselves all the while creating an illusion of freedom to the normal person.

Or maybe the government is ran by a super secret group of ultra powerful people who have everything planned out and outcomes predetermined for thier deemed worthy cause.

Or maybe the government is ran by an older generation of folks whose families have been in these positions of power for decades. Using thier positions for the personal gain of themselves and thier "friends".

Any of these scenarios or others I can think of have one thing in common... no one is looking out for me personally.  In all honesty, I really don't care what the truth is of who is running our government. In my years of life I've already learned that the only person who is going to look out for my best interest is me.  My only hope is to continue to focus on what is best for me and my family and work the social and government systems for my own benefit.

BTC is a piece of this for me and represents a chance to break away from shitty government backed currencies and standards.  It's looking out for me and my best interests.
19  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 10, 2024, 01:18:37 AM
If the SEC can't even use two factor authentication on X, how can they possibly be in charge of these important financial decisions?

Folks 65 and up are often considered unemployable due to lack of skills and mental/physical deterioration.  They often even have thier driver's license suspended.  

Meanwhile these are the folks running our government...
20  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 10, 2024, 12:56:49 AM
Wow... this is a funny turn of events... I saw the quick run up that occurred within minutes followed by the down turn and didn't think much of it. Bitcoin being Bitcoin I suspected.

Then I saw the fake SEC post followed by the removal and announcement of the "unauthorized post".  You can't make this shit up...

Maybe the SEC needs to launch an investigation on the SEC for market manipulation...

Really curious if they got "hacked" or if something else happened. Either way, great entertainment for the time being.
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