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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: March 11, 2016, 05:45:11 PM
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Pft deterring fees will occur automatically as the block reward disappears. At a price of 500$/BTC it would work out like this:
1 block (25 bitcoins) created every 10 minutes -> for each minute, 2.5 bitcoins are created X $500/bitcoin = $1250/minute.
So every minute $1250 in fees needs to come from transactions (instead of the block rewards today)
Using 10 transactions/sec as maximum speed (with current block size), 600 transactions each minute.
$1250/600 transactions = $2,08 per transaction.
Even higher BTC price -> even higher fees.
Edit: and if you use 5 tx/s instead of the theoretical 10 tx/s the amount doubles.
Yup. What's wrong with $4 a transaction? Totally fine. $40 a tx is fine too .... the problem is see with that is that it isn't very competitive... poeple will start using centralized BTC payment processors poeple will start using altcoins and the idea that we can't do better then 5tx/s is insulting make segwit make block interval 2.5mins make block size 8MB there i've solved bitcoin scaling!  Sure... and in the process make the blockchain grow by 1TB / year instead of ~30GB / year... good thinking...  |
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: March 09, 2016, 06:00:58 PM
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Come on piglets, you can do a little pump for me, I need to max my short before the crash...  A crash is coming? Are you talking about $380 again, $360 or lower? Are you calling this a pre-halving crash? Hm? We could really get tricked by this kind of probably crash thinking and sell our bitcoins when the price shoots up to $467 and maybe higher. I'm gonna continue to play conservative with my stash even though I am getting a bit more worried about whether there is enough steam for upward momentum. I'm thinking that my worry could be a sign that upward momentum may come, but I'm not holding my breath.. I think that both of us have the sense that if prices get into the $470s or above, then we likely heading in at least the lower $600s... but we gotta get to the $470s first. I believe we are in the middle of a complex correction, but within a larger bullish trend, at least so far. So my favorite scenario is a small pump, followed by a triangle that will break down, and then daily MACD will cross to negative, a good reason for a crash. |
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648
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Morecoin analysis [bitcoin/USD market observations]
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on: March 06, 2016, 09:17:03 PM
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I have a different view, if 300$ holds I think it will be clearly bullish, with about 750$ around the halving.
Below 300$, if gets bearisher, but if 200$ won't be broken, a bullish scenario is still possible.
For the next 2 weeks I expect to continue a downtrend, ending with the 300$ support testing.
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649
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: March 05, 2016, 08:28:38 PM
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28 million in leveraged longs on BFX. Shorts barely changed. This is a dangerously unstable situation. Every one of those longs have to close at some point, either at a profit or a loss. It amounts to massive overhead resistance.
Where the hell is the pump gonna come from? Halving is priced in. SegWit is priced in even though it may not happen or happen on a longer time frame than expected. Global economic stability? Bitcoin lost 5% in a day, hardly a safe haven asset, especially given the current governance situation.
Bitcoin is a honeybadger, so price may go up, but if it does, it will be in spite of fundamentals, not because of them. There can be no sustainable rise without a permanent scaling solution.
The most important part is that 8 M$ are new longs opened since 21st February, when price was 450$, so they are underwater now, and more down could trigger a long squeeze. |
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653
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Nights Watch by Afrikoin
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on: March 05, 2016, 02:37:35 PM
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Reassuring to see the classic Chessnut chart (bullish to infinity) which was as accurate as usual.
Chessnut! Always bullish gotta love the guy. Too bad he sort of left bitcointalk. My bets are on a continuation of the uptrend after retracing to ~410 maybe? Yeah. Think the whole market agrees $400 will be decisive. I am on the fence on this one. Ready to jump if it shoots up And if 400$ won't hold (about a week from now IMO) I'll max my short, others may dump big too. Whole market will go insane if $400 fails to hold! Well, maybe it's the right time for panic...  |
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657
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: March 02, 2016, 03:28:40 PM
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Decision point comes closer. And it doesn't look good for Bitcoin.
Transferred 100% out of cold storage into several exchanges.
Hodler for 4 years no more.
Interesting... just a few days ago you were all up uP UP! May I ask what made you change your mind? I thought we as a community would get our shit together. And as everything points to a decision point for (several month ) in the first decade of March, I thought this only could mean up. Now, as the decision point is around the corner, I think I could have been totally wrong and from here we could see the slow bleeding death of Bitcoin. I observed my own behaviour for several month. Even in Jan. 2015 at $160 I bought a hell of coins, because I believed in the community. Since then no new money (from me) entered the Bitcoin space despite I still am expanding my crypto holdings. I think I was wrong and the decision point means down not up for bitcoin. Edit: I left fiat because I couldn't agree with how it works. If I stay with Bitcoin while I feel the same, it is kind of self-betrayal. Thank you for the detailed answer. So you lost faith in the community, and maybe many others feel the same, so now you are preparing for the worst, this makes sense to me. From an EW perspective, things don't look so bleak yet. The current wave structure could lead to a testing of support at 300$, that I have been expecting for a long time, and almost lost faith in my own analysis. If this testing will happen, only after another month or two will it be possible to say if the bear market is back or not. |
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: March 01, 2016, 05:21:21 PM
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Statement today from Prohashing:
We're a business. Altcoins are now cheaper to use than bitcoin. Therefore, we use altcoins wherever possible. Businesses exist to earn money, and bitcoin is now cutting into our profits by siphoning off fees and wasting developer time in answering angry customer service "you're stealing my money because I never received it!" E-Mails.
This original post isn't some deceit to try to game people into buying or using altcoins for whatever reason. It's simply a statement that we can provide better service by issuing payouts in litecoin or any of these other networks. If we can encourage people to use altcoins, we can increase everyone's profit by cutting fees, and we can also write more features because we won't have to spend time reassuring customers that we aren't thieves.
Feel free to disagree on the merits of the post, but I don't think it's helpful to assume bad faith.
Live and learn  This could be the turning point, altcoins that can be easily converted into fiat start to replace bitcoin. Early adopters see the danger and start hedging, that is... dumping bitcoins! |
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