You're lucky you're getting out when you are -- like another guy said, "it's a matter of timing."

In other words, some miners are cashing out the value of their systems BEFORE the flood of cards hits the market, which will happen very soon.
They want to sell their 5870's and 5830's while they can get top dollar for them -- while there are still some "slow" people who think we're still in a Bitcoin Mania bubble.

As I've said several times -- in any bubble, you have people who are quick, average, and slow to figure it out. I'm quick. Some average people will soon catch on. Last of all, the idiots will catch on -- after it's too late. They'll be caught holding the bag (having just bought a $160 card that's worth maybe $90 for mining purposes).

The days of getting $140 for a 5830 are numbered. The number of dumb 17 year olds begging mom for a good mining card is limited. Those kids are never going to make $150 or $160 from a 5830 -- ever. It's too late in the game for that. Maybe a few weeks ago -- but not today.

Matthew

Total War: Shogun 2 for PC

I have an unused copy of the recent PC game, "Total War: Shogun 2"

1 BTC or best offer. I also accept cash, Paypal, etc.

Matthew

It's cooler here these days -- only hits 96 or 97.  A week or two ago we had highs of 105+

I'm sorry you consider my offer a lowball offer, but I have to keep my own payoff period below 60 days... anything more than that is more risk than I can stomach.

You yourself admitted you're trying to "beat the rush" -- which means you want to be one of the last people to get TOP DOLLAR (full price, or full price and then some) for your ex-mining cards.

Well, I'm a miner looking to make money too. I have to make money at this difficulty level, with BTC at $15.50, etc.

I'd just as soon wait for the "flood" and pick out cards then, thanks. I don't want to be "in the hole" for a bunch of overpriced cards. I'd rather bide my time and keep paying down my rigs.

Unfortunately, there are plenty of people less smart than me, who haven't caught on yet. They're still living in early June 2011 (Difficulty 477K, BTC price $30.00) Let them buy your stuff, just like they buy 5830's on eBay for $165 and up. They'll learn a hard lesson.

Matthew

How about that bad luck on Slush's pool today!

A 4 1/2 hour block! Whew!

A couple days ago was pretty bad, too.

I know it's variance, but man!

Yeah, it's been Summer here in Texas for at least 2 months now. Our summer (read: run A/C or die!) lasts about 6 months. It starts getting hot (more than 85) in late April, gets REAL hot during everyone else's summer, then stays pretty hot all the way to the beginning of October. And it's not brisk fall weather then, either. Oh, no no no. I've gotten mosquito bites on Thanksgiving, I kid you not! We don't even have to turn on the heat until January, and then "winter" lasts about 1 1/2 months.

Matthew

Seriously -- you can't go by the "historical average" because for most of that time, NOBODY knew about Bitcoin -- there was even less Bitcoin economy than there is today (if that's possible!) and much less demand.

I understand your point, there could be a lot of speculation built into the price. But 15 cents? Difficulty was pretty low back then -- if you wanted 20 BTC, you just fired up your old Pentium-133 from 1996, installed CPU miner, and ran it for a day!

Of course such a Bitcoin can't be worth much.

What you're basically saying: "Who cares if I lose a few dollars, if I make 50 dollars through a massive BTC price increase the next month."

I say: "Why lose those few dollars? -- save your few dollars, so that you make *53 dollars* instead of 50 when the Price Increase happens. Why lose some money on purpose, hoping to offset it with big profits later?"

That's bad business sense.

1. I never said BTC would be $50 next month. Anything is possible, but I don't think $50 BTC next month is likely at all.
2. I don't think it's smart to CPU mine if you're losing *anything* compared to buying outright. That's true for any given day.
3. You are advised to re-calculate from time to time if anything has changed. If difficulty decreases and/or the price of BTC rises enough (so that CPU mining becomes profitable again) then by all means CPU mine to your hearts' content.

I used to CPU mine myself, up till recently when it crossed the red line into negative territory.

I don't believe we're even on the same page, so apparently we can't continue this conversation.

I never said there was a magic number of 100 MH/s -- though that IS the original topic of this thread.

My posts (above) were *strictly* and exclusively talking about CPU mining at a loss (which, BTW, is *not* profitable at the current difficulty level, with any known CPU on the market)

If you're mining at 50, 100, or 500 MH/s and you want to mine when it's profitable, then you're sane and there's no problem.

I'm not angry about anything. I haven't raised my voice once in this discussion. If you think I've gotten bent out of shape in the least (emotional/angry, etc.) it shows how little one's emotions --or lack thereof -- truly convey on a message board.

Matthew

It makes it look like we've seen $15 in the last 24 hours -- while we haven't.

It inaccurately portrays the state of the market, and adds confusion.

I've seen 1-second spikes on the high side as well.

I thought it was just a couple individuals pulling off a joke of sorts. Yesterday the high was 17.XX and then it spiked to 18.00 -- it's like someone was trying to do economic-psychological trading warfare of sorts.

I just saw another glaring error in his post.

He is talking about BTC going to $70, but doesn't factor in the MASSIVE difficulty increase that would come about if that happened. Everyone and their grandma would be buying every 68XX card they could, along with new rigs, to capitalize on the new bonanza.

You're still not getting it. We're not talking about "To invest in equipment, or buy BTC outright". We're talking about CPU mining, which means you already have the machine.

You always have to make the decision about mining at a loss, or buying MORE BITCOINS with the same electricity money. Either way you have the same BTC -- a mined BTC isn't worth any less than a bought BTC. They can both appreciate to $70 (a.k.a. "TO DA MOON" on goldbug forums)

The question is: do you run your CPU at 100% for a week to make 0.0826 BTC/week, or just buy the BTC on Mt. Gox.

You're saying "what if next month a bitcoin is worth more?"

It doesn't matter. You simply start mining then, as soon as mining gets you MORE BTC PER DOLLAR SPENT than buying them outright. Of course you want to mine when mining is "profitable".

When it's not "profitable" you're literally throwing money away.

Can somebody help me explain it to this guy?

Good luck; that's all I can say.

I hope your rig didn't cost you much.

You're not getting it.

If you think BTC are going to be worth $50 next month, should you:

A) Spend $90 on electricity to get (4) bitcoins.
B) Spend $60 on Mt. Gox today and buy (4) bitcoins.

My point is --

Anyone choosing (A) must either love their electric company, or hate the idea of bitcoins going up in value.

Why else wouldn't they just BUY some bitcoins if they believe BTC will increase in value?

Paying MORE than Mt. Gox price in electricity is STUPID -- it's cutting off your nose to spite your face.

Matthew

He has a point --

If your cost of mining is greater than what you get out of it, you're only brown-nosing your Electric Company.

Anyone mining with a negative return (CPU mining, etc.) has to either
A) really hate Bitcoin miners
B) really love his electric company

An infected PC *might* stay infected if the botnet owner just has the PC hit this or that server once in a while.

But running the CPU and/or GPU full bore?  Guess what -- that's going to lead the the AOLer saying, "Hey, my PC is really slow!" and they'll have their grandson wipe the machine with a fresh copy of Windows XP. When a machine is formatted/wiped/re-installed, the botnet loses the machine.

Then the botnet owner has to get Mr. Novice PC User to click on a "Click here to restore access to your Paypal account." e-mail again. If he doesn't fall for it a 2nd time, that PC is off the botnet for good.

Matthew

5850s

And people are RIGHT NOW bidding 5830's up to $160 on eBay -- at least that's the going "market rate" on eBay for them. Which is ridiculous -- anyone hoping to MAKE MONEY is going to be disappointed, because you'll never see $160 from one of those cards. A person would be better off buying $160 worth of BTC.

5830s, unlike 5850s, do NOT get 0.25 BTC/day.  5830s only get 0.167 BTC/day.

Now if it wasn't $160, it might be an OK deal. Perhaps $130 at the absolute highest.
Really, what made the 5830 popular was the $110 price point. It's NOT the ultimate card for Bitcoin mining. There are plenty of cards that mine better than that card!

When I see people bidding the 5830 up higher than a 5850 or 5870, I have to shake my head. The 5850 gets about 350 MH/s and the 5970 gets about 365 MH/s, with moderate overclocking (no voltage tweaking).

Unfortunately, the smart people figure it out first, followed by the pretty smart, followed by those of average intelligence, followed by those of below-average intelligence.

Not everyone "figures things out" at the same time.

Just like with the Dot-Com bubble, just like with house flipping. There were some people who didn't know the bubble burst even after it burst! They still thought the bubble was intact (rather than burst). Those people, of course, lost plenty of money.

You want to be one of the quick ones -- one of the smart ones.

You basically just place a regular online order, select "Hold for check or Money Order" and then e-mail me (the e-mail address is on the site) to arrange for BTC payment.

I have a little text file I've been maintaining for the past several difficulty increases.
Each of these days represents a different difficulty level:

670 Mh/s =    

1.39 BTC (6/6/11 12:30 AM)
1.07 BTC (6/7/11 9:00 AM)
0.691 BTC (6/15/11 9:00 AM)
0.438 BTC (6/24/11 7:00 AM)

So 670 Mh/s brought in 1.39 BTC a day at the beginning of June, but currently brings in .438/day.
This is NOT EVEN ONE FULL MONTH.

See why you can't trust those "monthly income calculators"?