lol, if people honestly believe I am Garr, let them.  Investors are rarely rational and their lack of reason lets the more rational ones make a profit.  I just feel bad for anyone fooled by these clowns.

I didn't realize part of the costs might be sunk - if that's the case. the motion should include that info.  Good point.

Hey, fuck you buddy.  I'm a 'real person' and an investor in cog.  I'm excited about the future of mining and trying to crunch some numbers and be positive but realistic.  If you want to talk to me, find me on freenode irc, username "cmyers", and you can all tell me to my "face" WHY everything I said above is so "facepalm" worthy.  assholes.  *sigh*

Thanks Garrett!  All three of these motions sound beneficial for everyone.  I am really excited to hear details about the Cointerra thing.  TGB reports that they expect to deliver 2PH to the network by December (which is projected to be on the order of 5 PH around then), it is exciting to think cognitive could be a significant fraction of that! http://thegenesisblock.com/cointerra-expects-to-deliver-2-phs-of-asics-in-december/

Hopefully with the arrival of our BFL hardware and doubling of already-20%+-dividends, the share price will more accurately reflect the value cognitive is bringing.

I haven't been following the avalon mess that closely - is everyone getting refunds, or just people who asked?  Are we in a group buy that has gone the refund route?  Are we sure cognitive's avalons are a no-go then?  Links to evidence if possible please?  Obviously, Garr comment would be best but he's a busy guy...

I presume the problem is what garr is and isn't allowed to tell us due to NDA stuff.  If the deal we are getting is really that good, they are going to want to keep it private as long as possible so they don't have to give the same deal to everyone.  That said, the poor selling performance so far is probably scaring people, along with the fact that the future of cognitive rides not only on garr but on cointerra also, so there are quite a few points of failure here.  Being in "the best position of any mining company" - which cognitive may very well be in - is still a risky place due to the entire space being risky.

With 540 shares of COG.F2 still offered at the original price, and 28 others offered at different prices, that is 32 shares being held.  Garr himself said he'd be increasing his cog position, I wonder how many of the remaining 32 shares he is holding?  Buying 10 or 20 certainly seems reasonable for him (presumably he trusts himself and cointerra).

Garr, can you comment on what happens if not all of the cog.f2 shares sell?  Are partial deals still possible?  will we simply get some reduced hashrate, or will the entire deal fall through and the cog.f2 funds be refunded?

-Carl

EDIT: FWIW, 24 BTC, or 66% of my current BTC portfolio is in COG, COG.F, and COG.F2.  I originally bought cog when it was around 0.16BTC/share and I have been very happy with the way it has been managed.  the F and F2 contracts seem like a great way for more people to buy-in and for all shareholders to benefit from increased buying power (which is everything in the mining hardware market).  I already rode cog from 0.16 to 0.95 once, and I look forward to doing it again.

Garret,

So when you say our estimated Q1 or Q2 target is 1PH, you mean our current deal, plus the 50% growth re-invested with cointerra on similar pricing (which we may have already worked out contractually?), would put us there?

Are you saying if all the COG.F2 sells, we will have everything we can project being at 1PH by Q2 2014 with NO further funding?  Or does that assume further funding raised?  If that is with no further funding (but using our 50% growth reinvestment) that both explains the math *and* makes cog even more attractive, knowing further dilution wouldn't be needed.  If it does assume further investments outside of growth fund (COG.F3 or whatever) please outline what dilution we can expect.

Thanks!
-Carl

Wow, that's an interesting take too - would explain a lot.  Although wouldn't Garret have negotiated shares of cognitive rather than BTC from F2 contracts then?  Or maybe the cost is 3000BTC plus some shares we'll have to have a motion to raise - and that explains how the numbers are so crazy - because we wouldnt' really be paying 3000BTC for 1PH, it'd be 3000BTC plus some number of shares...

I presume if F2 contracts don't sell well enough to buy anything they will be refunded.

Oh, I guess that makes sense, since BFL singles would basically double our current hashrate, but man, that's SO short-term.  500GH/s is gonna be nothing in the face of 1PH, and cognitive is one of the few places where people are actually looking 6mo+ forward saying "how are we going to stay ahead of teh curve".  That's a long-term investment IMO.  Brings a tear to my eyes.

I can't believe the price has gone *down* in the face of this news.  I agree things are a little risky until garret confirms the now-crazy-sounding numbers he has released, but once he does, aren't people just going to buy up?  Seems like shares are deliciously discounted at the moment...

What else could explain the price drop?  Do people not trust cointerra or something?

Since it has traded for quite a bit over the original 2.5 btc price, it could be refunded at 2.5, converted to shares anyways (better to dillute share holders by ~1% than screw over a bunch of new investors maybe?) or some other compromise might be reached.  My point was just to do back-of-the-envelope calculations and the worst-case for shareholders is they get 0 hashing power and still get diluted, and even despite that the numbers are still very good.

I agree, the main question here is how 3000BTC equals 1PH.  If Garr has managed to get us a deal like that, we're gonna have to start making Garr for President T-shirts, AM I RITE?

Today, COG has 10420 shares and ~500GH.  Once the BFL equip arrives, that'll be about 1TH.

There are (100*20=) 2000 future shares in COG.F and (700*20=) 14000 future shares in COG.F2

After BFL equipment, today's COG share will earn 50% dividends on (1000GH/s / 10420) => 96MH/s, or about (50% of 0.0049 BTC=) 0.0025 BTC per week, or an annualized return of of 0.13BTC (41% of value as of this writing).

if COG.F *and* COG.F2 both were realized, and COG.F added zero hashing power (not including it because I don't know how much hasing power we have ordered and things look uncertain we will ever get it), and COG.F2 added 1000 TH/s, we would have:

10420 + 2000 + 14000 = 26420 total shares
1001 TH/s total hash power

Each share would get 50% of the dividends from (26420 / 1001 =) 26.4TH/s

If this happens in december, *and* difficulty continues to raise 30% every 2 weeks, difficulty would be (65mil * (1.3**8 ) = ) 530 mil by end of december.  At this diff, each share earns (26.4TH @530mil => 25BTC/day =>) 87BTC/week.

It seems unlikely cognitive can dump 1PH/s on the network without the network growing by an even larger amount, so let's suppose the diff is 10X higher than current exponential projections.

26.4TH/s @ 5.3bil => 2.51 BTC/day => 8.785 BTC/week.  Still an insane div.

Even if the network is 100 times its current size in just 4 months, if we had 1000TH/s each share would earn 3x its current value in dividends each week.

So there's some numbers I made up for you.  Anyone see any mistakes?
EDIT: sunglasses in my equations

This is a very solid piece of reasoning, IMO. Sounds like even if it only bought 2 minirigs it'd be a good deal for shareholders then, or some other hardware worth similar GH/s.

USPS website sucks, I knew I couldn't be there to sign for it but if they had updated their website I could have taken a 15 minute break to pick it up at the post office on the 3rd.  Oh Well.  Picked it up this morning, and my 2 units are hashing away!

Big thanks to Canary, great group buy.  Thanks!

theterabyte; 2; 2.2418; 1D6QjV1Nth53apEApawQRNbV2CCfdZagpJ

Heh, I can finally reply here.  signed PM sent this morning (about 6 hours ago), but I couldn't post here until now due to newbie jail.

from ASICMiner, yes, but people organize group buys, like this one:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=241414.0

You can see from his past group buys, he seems trustworthy:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=195647

depending on the diff increase, still looks like 120-200 days to break even... great for the novelty though! =D

yup, 2BTC each was way too much, but now the thought of 670MH/s for just ~$220 is too much to pass up.

So... I created an account to participate in a group buy.

So.... I have to make a post with several sentences in newbie jail.

So..... I can get out of jail and participate in the group buy.


BTW - forums suck.  Not these forums, any forums.  Terrible UI.  Terrible way to interact with people.  If you want real time, do IRC.  If you want archives, do email list + archives.  Forums are the worst of all worlds.  Hard to search, hard to follow threads, hard to sign/verify content, and everyone has their own email setup they like, but nobody wants to use a browser to read email (unless you actually do, then just use gmail or whatever).  Seriously =( forum hate!