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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: July 22, 2014, 07:47:13 AM
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[ COIN ] will also be eligible for pension accounts -which neither SMBIT or PBP are.
Thanks! I thought that the main advantage of SMBIT over bitcoin itself was that it could be used for retirement accounts, some of them at least (Roth?) You can certainly hold BTC in an IRA, Roth or traditional, or a 401k, Roth or traditional, etc. COIN is an open-ended fund. Any retail investor can buy it. Any mutual fund the rules of which allow it can buy it. In the extremal case, all of the funds currently being used to purchase other ETPs (stocks &c) can flow into COIN. That's a lot. The only practical limit to the amount of fiat COIN can burn is the propensity of the regulators to pull the plug. SMBIT, PBP in contrast live in a very rarified atmosphere, in comparison. In an extreme (not yet extremal) scenario, COIN burns too much fiat, so it is halted. Meanwhile, now mania is only piqued by events, and all the fiat, in a frenzied heat, leaves the capital markets to seek BTC over the counter. Singularity is discovered - an alternate extremum. Agreed - and thanks for the info on US pension systems, I was unaware of this. My question is - Is the mere existence of COIN enough to trigger a price rise - or do you need another trigger event (or series of events) where COIN can then facilitate the investment of fiat into BTC? |
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: July 22, 2014, 07:42:53 AM
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[ COIN ] will also be eligible for pension accounts -which neither SMBIT or PBP are.
Thanks! I thought that the main advantage of SMBIT over bitcoin itself was that it could be used for retirement accounts, some of them at least (Roth?) I am not sure about that - you may be right - the minimum investment in SMBIT is quite large, the ETF should have a much smaller investment size. Please also see my EDIT to my previous post, I am also a little dubious that a listing for COIN has an immediate positive impact on the price of BTC. |
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: July 22, 2014, 07:19:58 AM
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The listing of COIN will be a liquidity event like no other in BTC history.
In what ways is COIN different from SMBIT and PBP? An ETF can be invested in by anyone regardless of their net worth. It will also be eligible for pension accounts -which neither SMBIT or PBP are. It should also be far more liquid. EDIT: Do I think it will have an immediate positive impact on the bitcoin price? No, professional investors already have a number of options for bitcoin investment - and the vast majority will choose to invest in companies that will make money from bitcoin adoption via fiat cashflows, (this they understand eg coinbase, bitpay, circle ) rather than taking a speculative punt on bitcoin itself, which ultimately may only be an exchange medium through which fiat passes in order to reduce transaction costs. That said the new ETF will be different to the previously registered fund types |
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: July 15, 2014, 03:06:57 PM
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Therefore, those businesses are likely to increase supply in the market (by moving coins out of hoards to the market), rather than demand. Basically, they induce holders to sell, and make it convenient to do so. Are they also inducing non-bitcoiners to buy bitcoin? It is not obvious: if you had dollars and no bitcoins, why would you choose to pay with bitcoin?
I did not expect the "using bitcoin kills bitcoin" argument from you, I thought you were a little better than that. And I did not expect to have that observation (which is not mine, many bitcoiners have been saying so) replaced by a completely different statement in order to dismiss it. I will give you an example. Suppose @JorgeStolfi is in the US and decides to buy a fancy 3000$ laptop. He can send 3000$ to the merchant; or he can send 3000$ to Bitstamp to buy 5 BTC, then send the BTC to BitPay and have them send the 3000$ to the merchant. Which one will he choose? Now suppose it is @Aminorex who decides to buy that laptop. He can send 3000$ to the merchant, or he can get 5 BTC from his holding, that he mined for pennies in 2010, and send them to Bitpay, who would send 3000$ to the merchant. Which one would he choose? (And Bitpay then would sell @Aminorex's 5 BTC on the market, where they would be bought by @SroomsKit with his 3000$ which cost him many baked potato dinners. So, simplifying the equations, @ShroomsKit would pay for @Aminorex's laptop; but maybe one day he will get his money back, and more, from some other optimistic investor...) and Aminorex could also immediately buy back his coin at market, the net impact to himself is the same. He is down $3000 in savings but now holding more fiat than in BTC. If he wishes to maintain his BTC holding he will simultaneously buy the bitcoin, - in fact coinbase have enabled this functionality. Bitcoin is an enabling function on the internet, a method of transferring value from one place to another without the necessity for expensive middlemen - banks or even Bitpay/Coinbase. Bitpay is only necessary until bitcoin is adopted as more than a commodity after all. |
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: July 15, 2014, 07:01:14 AM
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all those things that can be "bought with bitcoin" are actually bought with dollars that come from the sale of bitcoins to BitPay/Coinbase/etc...
Does it not work both ways? Most of my bitcoins were purchased with dollars, received in exchange for my labor. A more appropriate saying would be, "all those things can purchased with labor or traded for other things using a medium of exchange of dollars or bitcoin". The point is that most of those "purchases with bitcoin" mean that the customer's coins are sold in the market by Bitpay and the dollars are given to the merchant. Where do the coins come from? More likely from people who already had a stash of bitcoins, than from people who didn't have bitcoins and bought them from the market for that purchase. Therefore, those businesses are likely to increase supply in the market (by moving coins out of hoards to the market), rather than demand. Basically, they induce holders to sell, and make it convenient to do so. Are they also inducing non-bitcoiners to buy bitcoin? It is not obvious: if you had dollars and no bitcoins, why would you choose to pay with bitcoin? I did not expect the "using bitcoin kills bitcoin" argument from you, I thought you were a little better than that. |
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Economy / Speculation / Re: The Observer Effect (over $1000 by 16-30 June)
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on: July 10, 2014, 03:09:34 PM
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Hello ! What it is wrong with your graph? You have predicted for the July 2014, a Bitcoin price of $4,900 or at least $1,000 .. Here we are now in July, and in fact the BTC price still bouncing around the $600  July is not over yet. You ain't seen nothing yet. Bbbbbaby you just ain't seen nothing yet! I agree with you guys, but I am tired to wait for that day when the BTC will worth "something". At this price of $600, you can't do to much with a BTC. Even if you purchase an ASIC, you will never get ROI.. IMHO ~ $600 it is not a good price for the top coin of this world. Why would you buy a mining machine - buy more bitcoin instead. You will get more coins for your fiat buying at market, and get a better return if the price goes up. That graph above is not fact, its a prediction based on prior patterns , predictions don't have to be right, patterns do not have to repeat. Have some patience. |
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: July 09, 2014, 09:45:49 AM
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Now what will Russia say? I wonder... Nevertheless, it's a great thing, and 5000 places to buy isn't a small deal. No but the Ukraine average annual salary is about $5000, so don't expect huge things And the average Chinese salary was $2,100 in 2012. Average salary is such a vague measure to use to come to a conclusion that a new market won't have a net positive effect. Get some facts right - the average Chinese Salary at the start of 2012 was CNY 42,452 - at the time USD 6,738 source http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/wagesand the population of the Ukraine is 1/30th that of China, 45million vs 1.35bn. |
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: July 08, 2014, 01:57:04 PM
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Yes it is unleashing a huge stash of the Winklevoss' coins.. but NOT TO MARKET. Only to customers of the ETF. = No effect on the market.
Not until the sell all shares and need more coins to satisfy demand,, will we see an effect.
At least, that is my take on it anyway. I stand to be correct if wrong.
hm... if the winklevoss brothers wanted to sell their stash, they could always do so. why would they go through the most complicated way of an etf that needs approvement, paperwork, etc. if they wanted to sell, they would have done it already otc or via exchanges. their intention is to keep their stash and when thier etf gets approved and institutional investors want lots of btc etf then this would create a huge demand = c c m f edit: typo note as well that if fully subscribed that ETF will have to have 200,000 coins If memory serves , and I'm an elderly fecker so it doesn't always, the twins had/have 100,000? |
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: July 07, 2014, 03:18:10 PM
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I have yet to see a license form bitfinex are the next? since when are bitfinex domiciled in France? Where else? British Virgin Islands and Hong Kong - Bifinex is owned and operated by iFinex Inc. (Bvi), prior to that their registered address was in Hong Kong, which is where they are still operated from. If you are going to spread shite try and ground some of it in reality. |
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