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541  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 30, 2014, 11:25:03 AM
Looks like someone wants to pump before the weekend Cheesy
Fiat put in on Monday , making it thought to exchange and going to work.
542  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: May 29, 2014, 01:11:15 PM

You believe that in only 3 years, bitcoin will reach "full adoption" and achieve its full potential in which it becomes larger than a fiat currency. That seems like too little of an amount of time for that type of development (if such a thing could even happen at all).

Bitcoin never seizes to amaze Wink

Bitcoin doesn't have to reach full adoption to achieve its fullest value - it just has to look probable that it will, its all pricing expectations ultimately.
If $1,000,000 is full value then we are currently pricing in a 0.057% chance that this happens (EDIT: not entirely accurate, lets use very low probability instead), possibly a little low? or the market does not believe that $1,000,000 is really the final value, in which case move that trendline lower as it's location is entirely dependant on slipperyslopes' $1,000,000 assumption.
543  Economy / Speculation / Re: Speculate High price on 3 June and win xPredict Free 10 day trial on: May 28, 2014, 08:07:38 AM
$579.74
544  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 27, 2014, 03:42:04 PM
Jorge, this is another example of you discarding information that doesn't meet your starting criterion of bitcoin = scam.
Confirmation bias doesn't do you any favours.
I have no reason to believe that Bitstamp is insolvent, but, if it were, it could and would easily fake that test.  That the test is accepted without criticisms only confirms how gullible bitcoiners are.

Bitcoin is not itself a scam, but I have never in my life seen an economic sector so chock full of scammers.  Every crook in the world who learns a little about bitcoin would want to "adopt" it.  It is a much more lucrative and "safe" vehicle for scams than the classical ones -- stolen credit cards, counterfeit cash, phony viagra, nigerian heirlooms, penny stocks, ponzi funds, ...

How about the current European Banking Sector Asset Quality Review - i'll take the evidence presented of Bitstamp's solvency as superior to any of the smoke and mirrors provided by the existing fiat system.
If I recall Ireland's banking sector was solvent under the first ECB test, until it wasn't just a few months later.

Banks are no better- scams and shysters are everywhere, some of them get paid millions of pounds by companies owned by the same shareholders they extort - criticise bitcoin if you will and many involved in it deserve the criticism but Stamp have functioned well to date. The questions around KYC are far more likely to be evidence of an exchange co-operating with authorities than an exchange intentionally attempting to defraud customers or in financial difficulty

Direct some of your penetrating insight on the conventional fiat system you appear to support over bitcoin, I work in it, and have done for twenty years and I know its full of scams, most of them much smarter and much more complex than anything you have seen yet in bitcoin.
545  Economy / Speculation / Re: When will the next bubble start? on: May 21, 2014, 03:21:13 PM
If price went from 1200 to 300 (btcchina) do not worry holders here, you must be braver than I am.


Where the price will finally stabilize is anyone guess.


This is bitcoin the price does not "stabilize", Volatility is our bitch.
546  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 21, 2014, 02:37:03 PM
Jorge retains some fantasy illusion that his posts affect the behavior of some marginal newbies
Rua Santa Ifigênia is the traditional "electronics street" of São Paulo, some 5-10 blocks with tiny to medium-sized shops selling from transistors to consumer electronics, with sidewalks lined with street merchant stalls selling all sorts of accessories, cartridges, software, etc.. A large part of it is contraband, pirated, or counterfeit (you can surely find a "legitimate" copy of Photoshop or Autocad there for a few bucks). Once in a while the police raids the place, confiscates a couple of tons of merchandise, gves out fines and maybe some arrests, just to justify their salaries; but that is all "priced in" as you might say.

Some 10-15 years ago a Ph.D. student of mine bought for her project a Sony camera that had a CD burner built-in and recorded images directly on small 3" CD-Rs.  (There was a short time window when that camera made sense, because flash memory cards had about the same capacity as those CD-Rs but were much more expensive.) She was running out of the original supply of CD-Rs, and could not find then in Campinas; so one day we happened to be in São Paulo we thought of checking at Sta. Ifigiênia.

When you buy anything in Brazil the store is supposed to give you a "fiscal note", an official serially numbered receipt, of which they keep a copy.  Those receipts are used by tax auditors to check whether the state sales tax is being paid.  Obviously street merchants and  stores selling contraband don't give no friggin' fiscal notes, especially for a small purchase like a box of blank CDs; but since we were paying with federal grant money we needed the fiscal notes, and moreover we had to pay with a check from the government account.  We had to walk the whole street, asking at half a dozen computer supply shops, until we found a store who had those 3" CD-Rs, accepted the check, and gave us a fiscal note.

While we were walking back, people started shouting "tax inspectors, tax inspectors" all over the place.  In ten minutes (no exaggeration) half the small shops in the entire street closed their doors, and all the sidewalk stalls had been hastily folded and thrown into vans that disappeared from view.   For, you see, they had spotted two odd-looking people entering random shops and asking to buy some trinket with a fiscal note -- what else could they be?

So: don't underestimate.


I would have used the example of shouting Fire in a crowded cinema - but you get the point across. Smiley
547  Economy / Economics / Re: Collapse or dollar= collapse of Rome= armagedon, but WHY!? on: May 21, 2014, 02:33:38 PM
if you doubt the power of the dollar, then why is Europe in crisis?

What caused the crisis here if not for the crisis in the American economy?

Too much debt, corruption, graft, lack of productivity, an overly generous benefits system (in almost all countries), an attitude of entitlement, a currency that works perfectly for none of its members, inefficient and uncompetitive industry (Germany excepted) and a lack of labour mobility,  amongst other things.
548  Economy / Speculation / Re: Timeline over the next 2 months on: May 21, 2014, 02:18:40 PM
Oh, how I would love this to actually happen. It'd be a hell of a birthday gift, hehe. (Nothing like some awesome birthday money!)

But, I have no clue where all of the money would come from. After all, if this were to happen, the influx would have to outpace the needed amount to account for new minted coins. Assuming a 50% outpace, we're talking about $5 million a day growing to $20 million a day.

[Not that I'm saying it can't happen, but I just don't know where this money would come from.]

you are assuming all mined coins get sold - I know for a fact that not all of them do, as I don't sell all the ones I mine. In fact recently I have been acquiring coins rather than selling them.

I agree though that to push the price to a new all time high will require multiples of the new money that came in during October - December 2013, and I so not believe that investments of this scale are feasible until professional money has a reason (and a way) to buy bitcoin. Professional money at the moment is building bitcoin companies not buying coins, and I am not sure what if anything changes that in 2014, or even the first half of 2015.
549  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 21, 2014, 01:51:42 PM
a pause for breath - or out of fiat?
550  Economy / Speculation / Re: Major western Bitcoin exchanges about to be investigated and probably SHUTDOWN on: May 21, 2014, 11:28:07 AM
Would explain why Stamp have got so aggressive on questioning where coins and fiat come from originally.
And a person long cash giving up on getting fiat out of stamp and not wanting to answer these questions might be tempted to buy coins , transfer them out to another exchange that either isn't being investigated or doesn't give a monkeys (say in China, or Russia ) and sell them, then post on the news in order to drive the price down again

551  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 21, 2014, 11:15:56 AM
Does anyone think that now is a good idea to buy? Ive waited for a few months like I was told and now this has reverse?

Most of my smart chums that were still waiting on the sidelines bought in at approx. $420 in the belief that it wouldn't go much lower, if at all. 

Do not invest more than you can afford to lose.  If you should decide to invest anything at all, buy it and hold it.  At some point you'll (probably and hopefully) have enough value to sell some, recoup your original fiat investment and retain a little coin as a long term investment.  Do not watch the charts every day and do keep your emotions in check.  If you're not a regular trader, charts can be very dangerous and very false friends.  Buy, hold, sell a bit when you can and keep some for the future. 

That's my advice.

Also, don't listen to anyone's advice on the Internet. Wink


particularly on this forum on the internet.
552  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 19, 2014, 03:12:40 PM
You really would have to have a monumental lack of patience to dump 500 coins at once into this market. At least do 250, let the bids fill in again and then do the other 250.

what if you're trying to sell several thousand coins and have been doing so in ~500 coins chunks over the past several days?


you would still be better off going slower than 500 coin lots. And yes I agree that is exactly what someone is doing, either a miner or someone who owns a lot of coins from somewhere else - although one hopes that Stamp might have refused one particular exchange operator an account.
553  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 19, 2014, 02:40:08 PM
You really would have to have a monumental lack of patience to dump 500 coins at once into this market. At least do 250, let the bids fill in again and then do the other 250.
554  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 15, 2014, 12:14:16 PM
It's Thursday, is this just the Bitcoin Investment Trust on its weekly shopping spree?
555  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: May 15, 2014, 11:56:11 AM
This is the best topic in btt forum.

Thanks!  Smiley

Quote
mr. Rpietila, so you prediction is 650 in 30th June.

What is you prediction for 15.8.2014, 15.10.2014 and 1.1.2015

On your opinion when we will broke 1000$ value.

It is easier to predict WHAT will happen than WHEN.

Eg. in October-13 my prediction was to go to $2000-$3000 in April-14. That would have been in the right place in the trendline. But the bubble matured more quickly and topped at $1200, only 6 weeks later than my prediction. So the prediction was wrong in both extent and timing, but it was essentially right nevertheless, because I predicted a move up, which happened. From an investor's perspective it did not matter.

In 1.1.2015, I think that any value for 1 BTC from zero to $100k per bitcoin is possible and realistic. I think the most realistic range is between $1k-$10k.

The prediction contest is also trying to assess the probability for the different scenarios.

I think anybody who predicts a single time, or price, or move, without having the understanding on how probable the said scenario has historically been, and telling how much more probable he thinks it is now, and based on what, is a quack.


You really think $100K by 1.1.15 is possible?

possible just very very improbable.  
If you look at slipperyslopes' logistic model and accept the $1,000,000 upper bound then the trendline price will be $6,743 on 1/1/2015.
$100,000 implies pricing +1.18 above the trendline, Bitcoin has been valued this far over the trendline before (during 2011). If we take this as the absolute peak of bitcoin potential on 1/1/15 (and accept the model), then the low potential price is likely to be $450 area.
So right now with a 1/1/15 view in mind - and if you accept the the logistic model - then bitcoin seems to be a sensible buy.
556  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 15, 2014, 09:55:24 AM
I thought Stamp was supposed to go to $5 minimum today? So why are all these $1 trades trickling through bitcoinwisdom?
557  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin adoption slowing; Coinbase + Bitpay is enough to make Bitcoin a fiat on: May 14, 2014, 09:05:28 AM
I would be interested to know what you make of Peter Mair's book "Ruling the Void", in it he discusses the disenfranchising of the masses from politics, and as a consequence the movement of decision making from popularly elected politicians to unelected specialists, which by implication erodes the power of the voting populace to influence those decisions.
Thus term limits on politicians or not, you end up with decisions being made by those who are not elected and are unaccountable to voters, large parts of the European Commission being by way of an example.
558  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 13, 2014, 11:15:42 AM
woo hoo $4 move
559  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 13, 2014, 10:28:32 AM
Is this Indexventures news the big announcement bitpay trailed at the weekend?

http://indexventures.com/news-room/blog/payment-without-borders-why-we%E2%80%99re-backing-bitpay


a $30mm investment round by the looks of it?

Sell the news !
While all news and publicity is good, this particular piece isnt too bullish as its just more money invested in a service thats in the business of converting BTC to Fiat.

on no, more transactions = bad
560  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 13, 2014, 10:23:07 AM
Is this Indexventures news the big announcement bitpay trailed at the weekend?

http://indexventures.com/news-room/blog/payment-without-borders-why-we%E2%80%99re-backing-bitpay


a $30mm investment round by the looks of it?
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