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1  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 26, 2021, 02:15:38 AM
Is it just me, or is this the usual coindesk nonsense?

https://www.coindesk.com/market-wrap-bitcoin-slips-friday-6b-options-expiry

Quote
According to Messari research analyst Ryan Watkins, Ethereum is at risk of becoming “dollarized” because of the prevalence of stablecoins including tether (USDT) and USD coin (USDC).

“Ethereum has dollarized, and the dollar is ultimately controlled by the Federal Reserve, clouding dreams of an independent monetary system,” he wrote.

The market has taken notice, and one solution might be so-called non-pegged stablecoins. By sacrificing a “fixed exchange rate,” one of three points in a triangular currency model known as “the impossible trinity,”  a new type of stablecoin might be able to achieve an independent monetary policy.

Dai is a non-pegged stable coin, and works like a token to redeem collateral in makerdao.

At this rate, Coinbase and their USDC is going to be the new fed/dollar

What does "non-pegged stablecoin" (NPS) mean?
Stable as in... 1 NPS = 1 NPS?
It doesn't work that way.
Not unless you change the units from NPS to BTC.

2  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 03, 2021, 05:12:02 AM
Every dip evaporates and the steam fuels the next pump
3  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 31, 2020, 04:50:52 PM
Interesting year behind us, cannot wait for BTC to take its throne during the third decade of the third millenium AD. Maybe one day call 2009 year 0 AB

Either way happy nye everyone. Even if this ship goes down (it won't, it bounces to damn high off of the sea floor), it was a blast !
4  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 27, 2020, 07:02:17 AM
I'm doing my part to prolong the demise of the WO page count. Never thought I'd see the day, thought shitpost count would increase exponentially as well...
5  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 12, 2020, 05:42:34 PM
To do a regression on bitcoin's long term trend, get rid of the manic price actions (the stuff in blue). Do a regression on the red data. You get the yellow line. Its equation is price = 10^(.09242*sqrt(d)-1.5011) where d is the days elapsed since September 11, 2010



 I project a brief top between $150k and $200k around late 2021, followed by a grinding bear market reverting eventually to the base trend.

Well, there are 4128 days between September 11 2010 and December 30 2021.
Putting this into formula gives the price of $27342 , nowhere close to 150-200K
Details:
sqrt of 4128 is about 64.25, multiplication by 0.09242 gives about 5.938, which after subtracting 1.5011 results in 4.43684, which is your exponent.
10^4.43684 is 27342

maybe, adjust the number you are subtracting?
Or, your order of operations is written incorrectly (multiplication precedes addition or subtraction)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Order_of_operations


I'm guessing that formula is a quantitative projection of the baseline, and the blowoff top number given (150k) is more of heuristic estimation according to historic baseline-peak ratios
6  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 03, 2020, 06:33:17 PM
So I took a snippet of a recent JJG comment and put it into a prompted language generator (talktotransformer.com) and got the following:

Quote
Yeah, I know that the terms of bitcoin and cryptocurrency are really ongoingly convoluted in mainsteam discussions too, I could easily follow a post like, "let's focus on politics and maybe pick a side," that's not how I think about it. The point I'm trying to make is that if we were to find another operating system that is even more decentralised than bitcoin, then suddenly it's not such a bizarre concept.

So where does JJG's actual words end?  Cheesy
7  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 28, 2020, 01:47:26 AM


We need a way to award people revealing factual, relevant truth to the world. Right now, only hype and sensationalism is rewarded with views and ad revenue.

With a permanent distributed record, we can advocate truth from logical consistency. It will be indirectly dependent on consensus (the blockchain), but a sequence of assertions that do not self-contradict could be a measure of "truth". The longer the better
8  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 13, 2020, 02:23:35 AM
Sometimes I accidentally go to bitcoinwisdom.com and it displays a cached webpage that shows an old $4k/btc. But this time when I thought I entered the wrong URL I was unpleasantly surprised! Shocked  

As far as black swans go, I am going to care more about reliable employment and survival. This sucks but serves as some serious perspective.

Very interested to see if BTC can roll through this black swan. No circuit breakers, no damn Fed printing trillions.
9  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 11, 2020, 03:34:11 AM
Italy reported, March 10, 18:00 CET

Verified cases: 10149 (+977 in the last 24 hours) ↘️
Case in need of special care: 877
Recovered: 1004 (+280 in the last 24 hours) ⬆️
Death: 631 (+168 in the last 24 hours) ↗️

Italy has more than 150 people died in 1 day!

Quick death rate calcs: Going by death/(death+cured) we get 38.5%. Going by death/infected and rolling 2 weeks back we get just under 25%.

What the hell is up with the italians?

It's been clear to me that all of the "statistics" are heavily weighted by testing strategy, and also by test accuracy. So Italy just tests people getting fucked by Covid19. Also, aside from China it looks like other country (S Korea, Taiwan) have curbed spread greatly by lockdown. But the grain of salt is that they probably are not testing as much.

When all is said and done I say it is highly contagious, kinda deadly to older folk, but severity depends on viral load. Just a hunch. So when gov does total lockdown quarantine it does not entirely stop the spread, but rather many infections are mild and untested. Do people have reason to refute what I am saying?

Otherwise, China, taiwan and others are totally deceiving with their testing strat to fake a recovery, which is bad news bears [if true]
10  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 06, 2020, 06:15:24 PM
Tesla and all other electric cars are trojan horses and we are actually paying money to get them.

Now think about it... it is crazy.

They should give them us for free for what they are taking from us. Tbh I still wouldn't drive one if it was free.
I love to have Horse instead of Electric Car  Cheesy

the 2020 Horse 2-seater model is sustainable, organic, and has personalized controls, as well as self galloping technology. In addition your Horse is powered by organic, light-harvesting, sustainable fuels that can be stored at STP for years, making you the talk of the Neighhhh-borhood.

Hay you! Yea, I'm talking to YOU, you horseless fool!! Isn't it time an  all natural, self-replicating vehicle trots you home after you've drunk yourself into oblivion? Buy Horse today
11  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 13, 2020, 08:30:14 PM
Does anyone know what the heck this is?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XMQHqB0ZpWg

It's a scam, but the the YT account has 800k subs. Seems this could trick n00bs pretty easily
12  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 28, 2020, 06:34:07 PM
Found a study published Oct 2019 with the head of emergent disease at Wuhan Virology Institute (BL4). Coincidentally they were studying the type of novel corona virus right before the outbreak; hope they got some good info.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590053619300308
13  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 27, 2020, 10:02:00 PM
I plan on out-sailing the apocalypse, but am thinking about my anti-piracy measures as there is not much hiding in the open ocean. Unless of course you can pseudo-submarine your vessel just beneath the surface with emergency ballasts.

I figure isolated cold climates are best, as long as you can survive. In the meantime I hope there are enough radios/comms to keep a quarantine economy flourishing
14  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 01, 2019, 11:00:41 PM
Quote from December 07, 2013, for nostalgia. Funny to feel that "but it won't be bitcoin" sentiment even back then, it is a hipster bias

Quote
As you may notice the pumping bulls are starting to get scared, we aren't going to see all time highs ever again. Bitcoin will level off and media attention will die off since we're the only reason it was there to begin with was because we were in a period of expontential growth.

People will look back in 3 years time and laugh about how a virtual currency with so many intrinsic flaws managed achieve a market cap of over 12 billion.

Cryptocurrencies may be the future, but it will not be bitcoin.
15  Economy / Speculation / Re: !!! Q3 game is life, Quarter 3 prediction game !!! on: July 06, 2019, 03:36:10 AM
Seventeen thousand
Nine hundred seventy two
Dollars per bitcoin

($17,972)

Thanks, and my defense for this I needed to use seventeen thousand for the first line.

beyond that, I'd say just after the new moon (Sep 28) we will be surgin'
In the long term outlook I think we're reaching near to the set-up for our "eternal september", which will not fit our long term log trend
16  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 03, 2019, 04:09:26 AM
Why can't I vote in the fresh poll? Assuming it's because I'm a newbie... only reason I want old account back

Anyone bought btc with CashApp yet  (or know anyone who did) ?
17  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 28, 2019, 01:10:19 AM
Cannot believe that mega-doji on 3d closed in green, aye carumba
18  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 27, 2019, 02:43:03 AM
19  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 26, 2019, 09:00:13 PM
Checking price way to often and still getting rewarded with them candles. I'ma need some popcorn
20  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 22, 2019, 10:00:13 AM
Not to get jinxy, but if a bull run can sustain all the way until halving I think we finally hit the ultimate milestone here: page parity.

That is, USD/BTC is greater or equal to the number of pages in wall observer. Here's to hoping  !
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