Trust requires time.  Trust requires experience.  Trust requires knowledge.

Maybe the question needed is: "Should you trust".  This is where Maybe falls into place.  

Maybe you should trust them, but more time/experience/knowledge is needed.

Most people treat trust as a knee-jerk reaction to a given situation.  I view it as a scale.

Pros:
Has shipped in the past
Is shipping now
Units work to specifications
Production speed seems to be inceasing
Happy Customers(perception)

Cons:
Slow
Repeated delays
Hard to get refunds
Poor design on some units
Perceived customer service (tough call, lots of whiners)
Unhappy Customers(perception)

You will always have unhappy customers, but you have to ask WHY?

Many early BFL customer had a dream... that they will receive this magic money making box and they'll get rich.  Time passed and others got the magic box first.  Tempers grew and time passed.  BFL started shipping magic boxes.  Joy was had and time passed.  Joy turned to anger, the magic boxes aren't coming fast enough.  Profitability drops and anger becomes hate.  REVENGE! they shout, refund our money! WHY?

BFL (and other companies) did as asked, they produced these magic money making boxes.  The problem was the demand for these magic boxes was so great that only the first few lucky ones could actually profit.  Who is ultimately at fault?  BFL and other companies for selling the boxes or the masses of people who over ordered them to the point they became worthless?

I did a time/motion study based on the theory that BFL had started shipping the equivalent of a mini-rig per day starting Oct 1.  At the end of 60 days, the calculation I used showed that they would not have shipped all of the orders they had received and likely would have not gotten far into July's orders.  If you hadn't received your order by Dec 1 you would never have reached RoI.  We know now that BTC rose dramatically, but imagine being there on Dec 1, mining 1.4BTC a day with your shiny new LS making a whopping $15 a day.  By Jan 1st you're lucky to see 1BTC a day.

My opinion: 53 BTC

I think your model is too conservative.

ROFL Sure, if you think difficulty will only climb at the modest rate it has been.  Open your eyes.

50TH jumps took from 22Jun to 7Jul, 7 Jul to 27 Jul, 27Jul to 5 Aug, 5 Aug to 10 Aug, 10 Aug to 14 Aug, 14 Aug to 18 Aug.  It currently looks like 18 to 20 Aug may be the next jump.

This speed increase is only get worse as more and more companies start shipping.

But hey, close your eyes, keep dreaming.  When Oct 1 rolls around you'll be wishing you listened.

Why limit this to Gen 2 ASICs?  The last month has shown an extreme speed up in network hash.  50TH jumps took from 22Jun to 7Jul, 7 Jul to 27 Jul, 27Jul to 5 Aug, 5 Aug to 10 Aug, 10 Aug to 14 Aug, 14 Aug to 18 Aug.  It currently looks like 18 to 20 Aug may be the next jump.

BFL is shipping. (yea yea, make all the fun you want, they are still shipping)
ASICMiner is dumping overpriced USB sticks.
Avalon just shipped 240-350TH of chips depending on who you listen to.
BitFury is supposedly up over 50TH
KNCMiner is coming soon
Cointerra?




I'm sorry, but if you don't have it in hand today, I highly doubt you will get anywhere close to RoI.

Had a guy in chat yesterday offering to sell 60GH BFL's he had in hand for $8000 each.  I told him he was high and that I doubted I could make RoI at $4000 and would only offer him $3000 if he paid shipping and guaranteed them to be here today.

A lot of these companies are going to go bankrupt if enough people put 2 and 2 together and see their money disappearing into an uncontrollable hash increase and start demanding refunds.  Why oh why do you think BFL has been denying refunds??? If they truly have only shipped 10-20% of all paid orders, that's a huge chunk of change to lose.

Always wondered what you look like man, boy, talk about P**** whipped!

http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/9e62ea57e7

With October shipping there no RoI... Bailout now, get your refunds!

He's a hairlipped dog?

Wow, you really don't know how to read do you?  I *NEVER* asked if someone was selling, I asked how CAN YOU buy shares of something that only RS knows who owns?

YOU were the idiot claiming there were shares on the black market, turns out YOU are the black market and YOU are nothing but a gold-digging asshole and potential scammer.

Also, don't blame me if you send 'private' messages to an unknown person and they get repeated.  If you really don't want it out there, then don't send it.  This message was sent to me and is now MY property and I am free to do with it as I please.  You don't want your laundry aired?  Keep it to yourself.

That's just it though, I did not experience this slowdown with V3, V4, V5 or V6.  I never tried V7 but V7.1 near killed it.  I tried it on 3 different comps with the same result so I'm back to V6 for now.

You are 100% correct.  Some calculations do run 100x faster on GPU, some only run 4-6 times faster, while others barely get a 2x boost.  I think the fermat testing will prove to fall into the latter areas.  The thing a lot of people don't realize is that you can't just take CGminer and make a few changes and presto it works.  This is likely to have been a major rewrite and then some.  I personally would want a 5x or better speed boost to offset the added power usage, 10x may be doable... 20x I'd be amazed.

trust me, I did.  Fortunately PP refunded me when he didn't respond to the emails they sent

And closed again due to whiners.  I'm sure he is still working on it, he's just not dealing with the drama on here. 

If the GPUs caused it to drop to 100s of coins per day, don't you think they'd leave in a big hurry?

To reach this unlikely scenario though, difficulty would have to climb somewhere in the neighborhood of 35-50 which I doubt is possible.

Remember also, primecoin has no cap like bitcoin, so a different method of limiting coins was put into place.

Personally I don't think the other CPU only coins are as profitable.  I could be wrong though.

I switched over to 7.1 and when I ran the bat file to start it, the miner seemed to be working normally but my system acted like it was overloaded.  Took over 20 seconds to bring up internet explorer after I clicked on it and almost as long for it to close.  Is this normal for 7.1?

I'm at .86 and found 4 blocks over 7 days.  Maybe in the long run, yes, but random still affects.

I have to admit I'm having mixed feelings about -hp9.  7 days ago I took my 2400 and 2500 out of ypool and started running -hp9.  The 2500 found a block that very day, I was happy.  Day 3 the 2500 found another one.  Day 6 and 7 it  also finds blocks.  The 2400 completely struck out and been switched back to ypool.  I estimate I was getting 5-7 XPM/day at ypool before I switched.  The 4 blocks plus 9xpm at ypool seems to indicate I did well, but that goosegg on the 2400 kind of rankles :/

As I highlighted above.....

This thread was an interesting read, a lot of opinion and lot of mud slinging, a crapton of outright lies and a fair amount of truth.

Since most of this thread is "he said/she said" or completely made up shit to cause trolling let's start off with FACTS, and these are VERIFIABLE FACTS.

1) BFL is shipping product - FACT.
2) Different product lines are shipping at different rates and are at different paid dates - FACT
3) BFL has had over 72,000 orders placed - FACT.

Sure, some orders have been cancelled, some refunds have been paid, but there's no number here.  We can acknowledge it happened, but not to what extent.

Let's step into fantasy a second... (For this I will be using some infor from http://bfl.ptz.ro/ to back up my points)  Let's pretend there are 72,000 total orders, that every order was for 1 item, that no refunds have been made and go from there.  We know as fact BFL is shipping Jalapenos that were paid for on Dec 5, 2012.  ~14000 orders were made by Dec 5th, 14/72 = almost 20% of Jalapenos ordered have been shipped (this IS still fantasy remember).  LS are listed at Sept 10.  ~8000 orders were made by Sept 10, 8/72 = 11.11%.  Singles are up to June 30th, ~2700 orders were made by June 30, so 2.7/72 = 3.75% and lastly we have Minirigs at pay date July 21, ~3700 orders had been made by 7/21, 3.7/72 = 5.1%.  I think it's safe to say this numbers are pure fantasy and makes it look like BFL needs another year to catch up.

Let's step into a different fantasy, but with some thought put into it.  It's June 2012, people are using FPGAs and GPUs, Network hash is about 12TH and people running 10GH are making over 6BTC a day.  They've invested 10's of thousands of dollars into their GPUs and are seeing $800-$900 a month in returns.  Mid June an announcement is made... ASIC preorders will open up on June 23rd.  The money spent on a 10GH GPU farm would buy almost 400GH of ASICs.  June 23rd rolls around, pre-orders open up and in less than a day 2000 people have placed orders.  Investors hoping to have the 1st units buy 20-50 units.  GPU farmers buy 5-10 apiece.  The average joe buys 1-2.  Lots os variable here, but let's pretend the average 1st day order is for 15 units of something.  Since it's still fantasy we'll say the remaining 70,000 orders were for 1 unit each.  Gives us some nice round numbers.  2k*15 + 70K*1 = 100k total units.  Let's look again at Jalapenos... Dec 5 is ~14,000 orders, but instead of 20% of the way through the order book, we're now at 42%!!  The Sept 10 orders of LS' with ~8000 now is 36% of orders!!!  The 2700 orders by June 30th make singles at 30.7%!!! and those ~3700 orders by July 21 = 31.7%...... wait.... only 1/3 or mini's have shipped... 10.6%   Still, Jalapenos will be completed in under a month,  LS and Singles may take 3 months and MINIs may take 4-5 months.  BUT!  THEY HAVEN"T RAMPED UP PRODUCTION YET!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Ahh, I love that fantasy, it makes me all warm inside.

How about we try for something that MAY be fantasy but is a hellova lot closer to the truth.

We need some facts again...

1) Between Avalon and ASICMiner it is estimated they have added 160-180TH to the network.  Let's call it 180.
2) Current Network hash as seen http://blockchain.info/stats has been between 450TH and 500TH during the 8 hours I've looked at it today.  We'll say 450.
3) There's 270TH of missing network hash out there.

Where has this come from? 

Let's go back to http://bfl.ptz.ro/ a second. Using the 4951 orders listed on the site as a reference along with the 3575 Jalas, 1230 LS', 2678 Singles and 185 minis listed on it, we can infer on average 2 of every 3 orders has a jalapeno. 1 of every 4 has an LS, 5 out of every 9 has a single and 1 of every 27 has a mini.  I realize this is not 100% accurate information, but it should be fairly good for an estimate.  So using this and what we know about #'s of orders made let's step into a more realistic fantasy:

Jalapenos are on 12/05 ship date and we know that ~14000 orders were made by 12/05
Little Singles are on 09/10 ship date and we know that ~8000 orders were made by 9/10
Singles are on 6/30 ship date and we know ~2700 orders were made by 6/30
Minirigs are on 7/21 ship date for 1/3 and we know ~3700 orders were made by 7/21

This gives us an estimated 10k Jalapenos, 2k littie Singles, 1.5k Singles and 140 minis.

10K * 5 = 10TH... 2k * 30 = 60TH... 1.5k * 60 = 90TH... 140 * 500 (only 1/3 has shipped) = 70TH...

50TH of jala + 60TH of LS + 90TH of Singles + 70TH of minis gives you 270TH.  That looks a lot like our missing amount of network increase.

Coincidence? You decide.

I thought the Phenom was better at running this, my 2400 and 2500 are at .86/.88.