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1  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2024 Diff thread happy New Years. on: March 12, 2024, 02:12:28 AM
OK, I have seen a reference to a "bull trap". Can someone explain what that really means and how it works?
2  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2024 Diff thread happy New Years. on: March 11, 2024, 09:57:43 PM
Have we now hit a new "All Time High" on BTC price (roughly $72.5K)?

That seems like it will spur mining effort, at least until the halving.
3  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2024 Diff thread happy New Years. on: January 28, 2024, 11:22:22 PM
So the summary of the two above comments and some rough math, the s19j for $3473 will produce in revenue about $11.35 per day. If you have "free" electricity, if this were to continue, your miner would be paid off in about 306 days. The next halving will happen during those 300 days, so it will obviously extend past 306 days.

Is this summary reasonably accurate?
4  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2024 Diff thread happy New Years. on: January 22, 2024, 09:40:36 PM
In terms of dollars, some of these changes seem less impressive. BTC price has slipped to $39,978.
5  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2024 Diff thread happy New Years. on: January 05, 2024, 08:33:39 AM
While I appreciate those folks that have researched and considered what the next halving might look like based on 2020, I would urge caution in doing so. The COVID pandemic disrupted most of the planet in terms of supply chains, shipping, and overall economic activity. I don't think that Bitcoin would be immune to that as well. Lots of external forces directly influence BTC price which can drive a lot of other actions in the overall sphere of Bitcoin.

Just my thought.
6  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened. on: December 25, 2023, 08:45:35 AM
Would this qualify as FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out)?
7  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Nerd Miner question!! on: December 13, 2023, 09:29:26 PM
I had never heard of this until now. As I read the description of the device, it's CLEARLY intended to be a very low power "Lottery Miner". Even if you find some way to connect it to a pool, it's unlikely to ever produce any income that you can realize. In my opinion, this just has to be a "fun adventure" on your part, and not related to any monetary or BTC acquisition. Trying to push it outside it's design goal (aka Lottery Miner) I expect will be frustrating and likely fruitless.
8  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened. on: November 10, 2023, 05:07:15 PM
BTC price has been on a solid upwards trend for at least two weeks now. I just saw it top $37K for the first time in many month. This is sure to help push up difficulty as people think that it's more profitable to mine BTC.
9  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened. on: November 06, 2023, 10:19:42 AM
I might be too late:

14) 4.30 to 4.62%  alh
10  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened. on: October 30, 2023, 10:08:12 AM
I'll add my thanks as well Phil.
11  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened. on: October 21, 2023, 07:51:10 AM
15) +0.99 to +1.31%   alh

Currently block #705 (Late night owl in MN USA).
12  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened. on: September 25, 2023, 09:50:41 PM
I'll take #3 if possible.

03) -3.99 to - 3.50   alh
13  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened. on: August 18, 2023, 09:04:40 PM
If you were just barely profitable at $27K for BTC, you are no longer.

Current BTC  price is $26,100.
14  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened. on: June 05, 2023, 09:29:54 PM
Ok that I understand, but can't they just buy BTC instead? Or is it because they need to borrow money and need to have a collateral of physical goods like mining gears?

In other words, your money or not, don't you always want to invest in what makes you more profit?

It seems to me that there are very few opportunities where "losing money" is OK. One is money laundering where you have lots of actual cash that you can't just deposit it in the bank, but you can spend it on things that don't return as much as you spent. But the process of doing that disperses the cash and makes it "clean". Would Bitmain, or other gear vendors, turn down cash for new equipment purchases? The authorities in the US wouldn't have clear insight into those kind of transactions, would they?

This is just a random thought with zero evidence to back it up. Maybe I watched too much "Ozark" on Netflix.....
15  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Mining difficulty and BTC mined Question on: May 28, 2023, 08:41:05 AM
I'm having a lot of trouble figuring out how to calculate future total mining using historical difficulty in my excel sheet. I assumed that if difficulty increases 10%, I would mine 10% less... But this does not seem to be correct, seems if I use average historical monthly difficulty increase to predict the future with a 1 to 1 ratio on bitcoin mined, it decreases too quickly. Please let me know how I should calculate this.


My assumption:

Last month I mined 1 BTC. This month difficulty has increased 10%. How many BTC will I mine this month?

Answer: 0.9 BTC



I would put a slightly different spin on the answer you got above. You aren't directly mining BTC, but rather you are mining blocks. The BTC reward for those blocks is variable. While in the original days, the "fixed" reward for those blocks dominated, so it was pretty much an algorithmic calculation. Recently the BTC reward that's included for for the "transactions" has become a more significant part of the overall BTC "inside" that block. The difficulty calculation directly relates to the number of blocks you will likely "mine", you could easily get a 2:1 ratio in terms of the BTC between blocks you mined this week, versus a month ago.
16  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: S17 and T17 profitibily at 38k bitcoin on: March 04, 2023, 11:29:50 AM
I thought I would bump this up for folks to see what a difference year makes. It's a short thread, but is really pretty interesting to look at a year later (IMHO).
17  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2022 Diff thread. on: November 22, 2022, 12:33:43 AM
Just as follow up to this discussion, BTC price has dropped below $16K. Most recent prices was $15,906. Boy, $30K sure looks nice from here......
18  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2022 Diff thread. on: November 21, 2022, 01:07:26 AM
My recollection is that the first block of a new epoch is "special" in that the time it takes to complete doesn't cunt against the 14 day time period? I am sure there is someone else on here that really provide the accurate details and explain it, but I am pretty sure there is this "wrinkle" that happens at an epoch switch event.
19  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2022 Diff thread. on: August 31, 2022, 05:44:47 AM
Almost there........

Quote
Latest Block:   751961  (6 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   109.1624%  (2010 / 1841.29 expected, 168.71 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   28174668481289.41                           
Current Difficulty:   28351606743493.77                           
Next Difficulty:   between 30981304163602 and 30981329617450
Next Difficulty Change:   between +9.2753% and +9.2754%
Previous Retarget:   August 18, 2022 at 5:48 AM  (+0.6280%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 1:36 AM  (in 0d 0h 54m 57s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 1:36 AM  (in 0d 0h 54m 58s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 19h 47m 53s and 12d 19h 47m 54s

BTC price: $20,357.  This is clearly going to "sting".
20  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2022 Diff thread. on: August 27, 2022, 06:56:59 AM
Well past the half-way point and blocks are getting mined plenty fast!

Quote
Latest Block:   751343  (14 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   109.3869%  (1392 / 1272.55 expected, 119.45 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   28174668481289.41                           
Current Difficulty:   28351606743493.77                           
Next Difficulty:   between 30777778287919 and 31059397888386
Next Difficulty Change:   between +8.5574% and +9.5508%
Previous Retarget:   August 18, 2022 at 5:48 AM  (+0.6280%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Wednesday at 12:58 AM  (in 3d 23h 4m 31s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Wednesday at 3:44 AM  (in 4d 1h 50m 15s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 19h 9m 59s and 12d 21h 55m 44s

Unfortunately BTC price has now fallen back to $20,139. If this continues, this will "sting" in less than 4 days.
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