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April 13, 2021, 08:54:14 PM *
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1  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2021, time for a new general & diff speculation thread... on: March 31, 2021, 07:51:16 PM
Into the home stretch for this epoch: 1832 mined / 1726 expected at this point. BTC price is still $59K+ .

cryptothis is currently projecting an increase of roughly +6.1% late tomorrow. This is going to sting a bit compared to the last couple of months.
2  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2021, time for a new general & diff speculation thread... on: March 18, 2021, 10:35:21 PM
In the final stretch of this epoch: Currently 1882/1849 expected. cryptothis is projecting an increase of +2% on Friday afternoon. BTC price doing well at $57,833.
3  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2021, time for a new general & diff speculation thread... on: March 13, 2021, 07:38:58 AM
We are now a bit past the half way point in this epoch. We are currently ahead some (1063/1039 expected) in terms of the blocks mined. At the present rate cryptothis.com projects that we'll finish the epoch with a difficulty increase of about +2%. BTC price is still pretty high at $56,795.

Edit: A few hours later, BTC price has now risen to a new high of $61,000!

Every time I looked at this over the last week the price has been good, and we have been ahead by 10-25 blocks. No crazy spikes in the block solve rate.  I don't think I even seen it behind during the last 7 days for what it's worth.
4  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2021, time for a new general & diff speculation thread... on: March 04, 2021, 04:53:44 PM
Less than 200 blocks to go in this current epoch: 1816/1841 expected. Projecting a small decline in difficulty.
BTC price: $49,860.
5  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2021, time for a new general & diff speculation thread... on: February 25, 2021, 06:13:55 AM
We are gaining ground compared to my last update: 762/769 expected (only 7 behind now)While this currently is showing a small possible decrease, my actual bet is that we'll end up on the positive side before the epoch is over (about 9 days away). BTC prices has firmed up a bit at $50,374.
6  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2021, time for a new general & diff speculation thread... on: February 23, 2021, 06:09:41 AM
Clearly nothing "odd" during the 1st 700 blocks so far: 338/344 expected, so a small decrease so far. BTC price: $55830.



Just another small update on the "early 700 block hash rate" discussion. At this time, we are behind just a bit.Either those folks are asleep at the switch, or maybe it's not going to materialize this epoch.

422/431 blocks expected (behind by 9).   BTC price has also slid some at $54,554.



Another update on the current epoch (aka the 700 block hash discussion): We are currently at 460/483 expected. This is currently projected to end with a decrease of -3.6% to -1.5% (plenty of time for that to change).

Unfortunately BTC price continues to slide, currently at $49,599. BTC has been above $50K for the last week.
7  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: I DONT UNDERSTAND WHY NEWBIES KEEP ASKING THE SAME QUESTIONS !MUST TO READ ! on: February 21, 2021, 11:06:15 PM
When Bitcoin price soars and it ends up in the News, lots of folks decide to start mining for "Fear Of Missing Out" (aka FOMO). This level of interest by new folks will continue as BTC price rises and will evaporate if it falls in a significant way for months or more.
8  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2021, time for a new general & diff speculation thread... on: February 21, 2021, 11:00:43 PM
It could very well be that someone(s) with a lot of hashrate have decided that at the present time it might be better to just plug away and let BTC price increases do the work for profit. That 6EH would come at a cost, so maybe you would "turn some off" and reduce their cost for next couple of weeks. After all, a difficulty increase hurts everyone, including the Multi-EH folks as well as the TH folks like me.
9  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2021, time for a new general & diff speculation thread... on: February 21, 2021, 12:02:21 AM
If there is some kind of deliberate effort to adjust hash rate, those folks don't know the epoch has switched. Right now we are at 156/156.28 blocks. BTC price is $56081.

Of course it's possible they are just messing with Phil.  Smiley
10  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Bitmain S19 Pro delivery depending on the country?!? on: February 20, 2021, 11:56:33 PM
While I have zero inside information, my best guess is that any preference is more an attribute of the buyer and NOT the country in which they live. I expect any folks that have received an S19 Pro have paid substantial money a while ago and hence gotten their equipment  as a result. Bitmain has run into the same shortage of ASIC manufacturing as Ford and lot's of other companies. You can read up on TSMC and other silicon foundries.
11  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2021, time for a new general & diff speculation thread... on: February 20, 2021, 10:20:23 AM
For what it's worth: 74/74.3 blocks in/expected. BTC price: $55440.
12  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2021, time for a new general & diff speculation thread... on: February 18, 2021, 06:45:18 PM
[...]

So you are suggesting that there is some kind of "hash shaping" being done on a large scale that presumably benefits somebody by capturing more blacks during the first 25-30% of the epoch? That's an interesting possibility.

Just as a reminder to folks, while 1% increases are way better than 5% increases, it is still exponential growth, it's just that the exponent is smaller. It works out to a pretty impressive growth rate of 30% per year. If you could get a 30% interest rate on you savings account you would be very happy.
13  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2021, time for a new general & diff speculation thread... on: February 18, 2021, 10:51:54 AM
About 75% through the current epoch (1503 blocks), and the projected difficulty increase is 2.5% to 2.7%, ending on Friday morning.

BTC still short of $50K at $49,223. As expected $50K is kind of a psychological barrier to price. Coinbase 1 month chart show $49,900 as the peak.

Edit: Looks like there was at least one trade on coinbase for $50,645 early in the morning 2/16/2021. The price didn't last and fell back to $49,xxx a few minutes later.



reminder that in 2017 bitmain produced comparatively very little due to their internal problems ...

Mustn't Spondoolies a real force back in 2017? Was that also the year we heard about mining light bulbs and miners in various appliances (e.g. TV, routers, etc)? I forgot the name of that company that paired up a Raspberry Pi with a "Mining HAT" that was going to really make micro-translations a big deal. Didn't they get $100 Million investment from somebody?

Ahhh the heady days of late 2017....... Smiley



Into the home stretch for this epoch (1803 blocks completed). BTC price now well above $50K at $51,673. Projected difficulty increase is at about +1.3% on Friday afternoon.
14  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Mining Strategies? % to hodl or upgrade on: February 17, 2021, 07:23:24 AM
Except for the references to 2017 and 2020, I'd swear that I saw very similar discussions when I started with BTC in July of 2013. The question right now is how long does the current Bull run for BTC price last, and what does it fall to when it's exhausted?
15  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2021, time for a new general & diff speculation thread... on: February 13, 2021, 06:06:00 AM
A little past the halfway point at 1062 blocks, and we are roughly 31 blocks "ahead". Based on cryptothis, that translates to a 2.4% to 3.1% increase by late mid-day on Friday.

BTC price is still good at $47,976. The bubble continues to hold, but not inflating much.
16  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2021, time for a new general & diff speculation thread... on: February 09, 2021, 06:55:21 AM
Roughly 500 blocks in and price is at $47845. Project next diff is in the range of 3.9% to 9.3%.

Price of BTC continues to amaze me!
17  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Energy use: computational effort vs cooling on: February 06, 2021, 07:03:01 AM
To find out more about current mining manufacturers, you might want to consider posing your questions and reading what you can in the various posts in the Mining -> Hardware  sub-forum adjacent to this one. There is significant overlap in folks, but it's not 100% and you might well find additional response.

Best of luck.
18  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Energy use: computational effort vs cooling on: February 06, 2021, 05:26:38 AM
While it might be interesting, I am not aware of any current generation mining hardware that readily accept a change from air to liquid cooling in any reasonable way. All the current generation hardware has many dozens of chips spread across 2-3 boards. Each chip usually has a heatsink stuck to the chip. The past generations actually used glue which made it difficult if not impossible to remove the heatsink. I expect the current generation is constructed similarly, though somebody that has actually dismantled one would confirm or refute my claim.

The mining hardware of today does NOT have a small number of large chips for the actual SHA-256 calculations. It's all about parallelism, both within each chip and then across the board. I'd be stunned if Bitmain (for example) would have any interest in producing a variant of the mining board with a liquid cooling plate instead of a heatsink per chip.

I assume you were talking about some kind replacement for heatsink when you mentioned liquid coolling, or did you have something else in mind?
19  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2021, time for a new general & diff speculation thread... on: February 05, 2021, 07:11:20 AM
While the price is still good at $37589, it looks like likely difficulty increase is been creeping up for the last couple of days:

1892 blocks completed, about 43 ahead of expected. This puts the likely increase at roughly 2.5%.
20  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2021, time for a new general & diff speculation thread... on: January 29, 2021, 04:36:34 PM
At about the halfway point (921 blocks completed), difficulty projection is just shy of 3% using cryptothis. Even more striking though is that BTC price just popped above $37K (again).

BTC price never fails to entertain!
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