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2001  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin is dead on: October 18, 2014, 03:40:07 PM
My target for btc:

1,
FTFY
2002  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 18, 2014, 03:33:13 PM
don't worry, the future belongs to me and not because Bitcoin will be in it....
If that is indeed the case, why exactly are you spending your time here, on a Bitcoin forum?

Surely, if Bitcoin is destined to end up in the dustbin of history you could find more productive things to do with your time?

I wonder what mechanism could make it profitable for you to spend your (presumably) valuable time on the enthusiast forum of a doomed technology?
This. But I guess we have Billionaires trolling bitcointalk

lol
They prolly got promoted from the call center.
2003  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Ponzi - Ponzicoin ? on: October 18, 2014, 03:24:54 PM
My tough is that if someone wanted to make a legit coin they would use some other name. That's all.
Yeah, legitcoin. Sounds legit.
2004  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: The Mining Incentive on: October 18, 2014, 08:56:48 AM
There are scams in every unregulated industry. If you are scammed, then sue. QED. Don't blame it on Bitcoin. Like any business, some are good at it and make money while some don't. That's just business. Plenty of miners do make profits of they would be turning off their miners.

/thread
2005  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 18, 2014, 08:38:39 AM
Those transactions pay fees. You think people just move money around for no reason? If you don't like the metric, then claim that it needs to be weighted, not discounted. I would conservatively guess transaction volume about 20% as actual transactions because businesses report actual sales in bitcoins.

Currently, transaction fees are negligible (~13 BTC total per day; on average, less than 0.08 USD per transaction, or less than 0.01% of the BTC volume excluding change-backs). For many kinds of non-payment transactions (tumbling, moving between hot and cold wallets, depositing and withdrawing from exchanges and other "bitcoin banks", over-the counter bitcoin purchases, etc.) those fees are not a deterrent.

And fees are not yet mandatory, is that correct? 

Moreover, there are many people (such as fund employees) with motivation to generate "fake" traffic in order to give the impression of usage. 

My guess is that payments for goods and services are no more than 5% of the blockchain transaction volume.  The justification is that the latter does not vary with BTC price as one would expect.  If that is the case, then one cannot use the traffic as a measure of adoption, even with a 0.05 weight, because the proportion of payment to non-payment traffic may vary a lot.

I'll concede the uselessness of Metcalfe's Law as a predictor, that is for academic discussion. I don't believe Metcalfe's Law even applies to Bitcoin, because it is not a network. It doesn't need a lot of nodes, only a lot of decentralized miners.

You call yourself an academic, yet you do nothing but criticize and offer nothing constructive. Your criticisms are weak and add little to the discussion. If you can't contribute something constructive, then you aren't putting in much effort and are resting on your laurels.
2006  Economy / Speculation / Re: Market cap of Bitcoin sure is tiny...just sayin' on: October 18, 2014, 08:07:58 AM
eh there at least 3~5 orders of magnitude left for btc to grow into

3 orders of magnitude is 1000.  So if BTC is $400 today it will be worth $400 000 a coin then.  Five orders is 100000, so btc will be worth $40,000,000 a coin.  Forty million a coin!!!  I will be rich with my tenth of a BTC coin holdings!
Some people think that is rich and some don't. Some people are not happy without many billions. Someday it will be trillions. Besides, he said 3-5, not absolutely 5.

In today's money, 400k a btc --that's three orders of magnitude--is rich by anybody's definition.  

Not to them. Besides, with 400k per bitcoin that's only about 5,000,000,000,000 market cap. The Federal Reserve lost and can't account for 3 times that much and nobody cares. That's just not much money.
2007  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Just what is a FAIR fee to send a Bitcoin transaction? on: October 18, 2014, 08:02:38 AM
Whatever the market will allow.
2008  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: October 18, 2014, 07:57:28 AM
When people realize that much of their gold portfolio is tungsten, fractional reserve, or stolen, then they will see that Bitcoin is 100% verifiably genuine.
2009  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Has anyone coined this term yet: Bitcoin Squatting on: October 18, 2014, 06:22:49 AM
its called hoarding!!!
erm you mean Hodling.
2010  Economy / Speculation / Re: Market cap of Bitcoin sure is tiny...just sayin' on: October 18, 2014, 06:21:14 AM
eh there at least 3~5 orders of magnitude left for btc to grow into

3 orders of magnitude is 1000.  So if BTC is $400 today it will be worth $400 000 a coin then.  Five orders is 100000, so btc will be worth $40,000,000 a coin.  Forty million a coin!!!  I will be rich with my tenth of a BTC coin holdings!
Some people think that is rich and some don't. Some people are not happy without many billions. Someday it will be trillions. Besides, he said 3-5, not absolutely 5.
2011  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoins are not tokens on: October 18, 2014, 06:06:36 AM
Dollars, euros and pounds are easy to visualize: They’re physical objects ...

Dollars, euros and pounds are not physical. They are no more tangible than bitcoins.

Token, coin, whatever -- I challenge anyone to show me a bitcoin.
Is that a veiled attempt at begging for bitcoins?

No, just a challenge, and a learning opportunity. If your disagree with the OP, then I challenge you to point to one of these bitcoin tokens.
is this an ontological argument now?
2012  Bitcoin / Technical Support / Re: Bitcoin transaction not confirmed after 19 hours on: October 18, 2014, 04:52:15 AM
I've never paid so much as a satoshi in fees for transactions.  Why pay for something if you don't have to?
You got away with stealing someone else's work because they didn't put in theft protection yet. Don't expect to get away with it forever.
2013  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Minning is wasting money, why still minners? on: October 18, 2014, 04:42:20 AM
bitcoinwisdom calculator is awesome. Too bad none of the calculation I input give me positive ROI unless I reduce the difficulty increment to 4%.
Can you lower your electricity price?
2014  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoins are not tokens on: October 18, 2014, 04:22:16 AM
Token, coin, whatever -- I challenge anyone to show me a bitcoin.
Is that a veiled attempt at begging for bitcoins?


Token: a voucher
Voucher: a receipt
Receipt: the action of receiving something or the fact of its being received

Token == the action of receiving something or the fact of its being received
2015  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Has anyone coined this term yet: Bitcoin Squatter on: October 18, 2014, 04:14:14 AM
The only Bitcoin squatters I'm aware of are with Intersango  Grin
2016  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 18, 2014, 04:07:16 AM
Metcalfe's "law" is used in bitcoin to "prove" that X will grow like Y squared, for some suitable quantities X and Y.  Problem is, the law does not say that Y will continue growing, that it is not being affected by MtGOX, that it will not suffer from ApplePay, that it is not determined by China, etc.

You seem to be describing interruptions to the growth of the network, but you are NOT describing the law to be invalid.... because the question becomes whether the network keeps growing or NOT and that may NOT be known while we are in the middle of the growth whether it has substantially slowed down or stopped... but after the fact, we may be able to look back and see the direction of the growth... or have better means to measure the extent of the growth... which some of those measurement systems already exist in bitcoin... but still does NOT necessarily tell us to where the trajectory is going or whether the trajectory has been materially and significantly interrupted.

There are several problems there...

For one thing, how to define the "size of the network", and how to measure it?

Total hash power is a poor measure, since over the lst couple of years the hash power is now concentrated in a few large pools.  The justification given for Metcalfe's law is that each node can interact with all the other N-1 nodes, so as N increases the number of possible interactions grows as N2, and the value of the network is guessed to be proportional to that number.  But if the network, instead of adding mode nodes,  is concentrating all use in a few big nodes, the interaction actually goes down.  And, aniway, miners don't interact with each other.
Hashrate is a measure of miners, not pools. Miners are independent entities that can change pools at any time. You can't use pools as a reliable source because they are not physical, only the miners themselves are physical.


I explained already why I believe that the blockchain traffic (whether measured in TX, BTC, or USD) is mostly bitcoins moving between addresses with the same owner; so it cannot be assumed to measure the size of the network, either.  In fact, we do not have any reliable data about the bitcoin economy, except the market price, the number of coins mined, and the total hash power.
Those transactions pay fees. You think people just move money around for no reason? If you don't like the metric, then claim that it needs to be weighted, not discounted. I would conservatively guess transaction volume about 20% as actual transactions because businesses report actual sales in bitcoins.

In the plots that are said to show that bitcoin follows Metcalfe's law, the last year is squeezed into a tiny area a few millimeters tall by a couple centimetres wide.   But that is where most of the "weight" is.  It is like plotting some property of bodies of water, from a teaspoon to the Pacific Ocean, and having the data for all the seas and oceans squeezed into that tiny sliver of the plot.  Why should one assume that a property that holds for small bodies of water, from teaspoon-size to lake-size, will continue holding for ocean-size ones?  (And indeed we know that real oceans have many phenomena that you don't see in lakes, like currents driven by climate differences.  In particular, for all small bodies of water there are bodies that are 10x bigger; but that is not true for oceans...) If that "Bitcoin Metcalfe" plot were to be trimmed to the last 12 months and expanded to fill all the plot area, what would it show?
You are the one claiming that people use Metcalfe's Law to describe Bitcoin growth. That model is too simple for my tastes. I never read anything about Metcalfe's Law being fractal where you could zoom in and out to see the same patterns. It seems to me it's not really a predictive model and that there are many variations. Your argument is a strawman, because you haven't specified exactly which variant is "used in bitcoin."
2017  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: I imagined this last night in my dream. I tried to photoshop it. on: October 18, 2014, 03:41:35 AM
Did you have a Lite-Brite as a child?
2018  Economy / Economics / Re: why do people agree to pay taxes? on: October 18, 2014, 03:39:07 AM
If you don't want to pay taxes, you can always renounce your citizenship and move out.  Smiley

I'm not American, but I thought that Americans have to pay taxes even if they're not living there. I could be wrong though, it was something I heard once I think.

When you renounce your citizenship, you are no longer American.  Grin
Also when you rescind your citizenship.
2019  Economy / Speculation / Re: If You're Not Buying Bitcoin Now... Then You're Just Stupid. on: October 17, 2014, 06:24:10 PM
Only when there's blood in the street, you buy.
Nobody knows when that is. It's better to use dollar cost averaging.
2020  Bitcoin / Legal / We all hear about using Bitcoin to fund defense counsel on: October 17, 2014, 06:13:13 PM
We all hear about using Bitcoin to fund defense counsel, but what if people start using Bitcoin to fund lawsuits against bad agents? What would happen?
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