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2161
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin made rich just a few but it ruined many
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on: October 27, 2014, 09:15:11 AM
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By a large margin, most bitcoins mined are not sold on exchanges. They are held.
I like the idea, but how do you know? Do have some proof? Unless you see millions of bitcoins trading somewhere that I don't, I'll have someone add them to the charts. Last I saw somewhere, bitcoin days destroyed was far less than 10% which means that even if every bitcoin that changed addresses was sold, it still wouldn't be much. I would guess that less than 2% are exchanged. If you bring Mt Gox into the calculation, then it's really far less than 2%. |
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2162
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: October 27, 2014, 07:58:30 AM
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and growing. Guess something big going to happens Just thinking... how will all that shorts close their positions? I see only two options: short or long squeeze. Could this be some form of manipulation? Maybe they are already covered? Annnd we're at 18k shorts with no volume on BFX someone is doing something funny someone is setting up to run away with all da coinz from finex Right! Would you really want to open shorts on a Monday morning anyway? |
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2163
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
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on: October 27, 2014, 07:50:54 AM
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and growing. Guess something big going to happens Just thinking... how will all that shorts close their positions? I see only two options: short or long squeeze. Could this be some form of manipulation? Maybe they are already covered? Annnd we're at 18k shorts with no volume on BFX someone is doing something funny Ding ding ding! Winner winner, chicken dinner! |
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2164
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Automated posting
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on: October 27, 2014, 07:47:23 AM
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The difference between humor and odor: one is a shift of wit.
maybe one day you'll get that one yourself I done got burned! |
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2165
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Finding BTC bottom
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on: October 27, 2014, 07:45:21 AM
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my question is (odd thou it may sound) is if 70% of BTC is in China as far as owned....and the assumption is BTC was a bubble when the majority
bought such...what is the price..if that majority decides to get out (ie cut their losses) gonna be at the end of such a flush of btc to fiat?
are we talking back to the start of the bubble $150 usd say last oct 2013 or will it over correct more so downward...seems to be the trend
<snipped part trying to answer his own question>
Chinese have post $150 bitcoins. It would make no sense for them to sell below their cost except for a few panickers. The best way to price bitcoin is its moving average which is based on many factors over time. my point is they got in on the boom...if they are what drove the boom in price their leaving is what will drive the bust in price assuming it is acting like a classic bubble (ie people were into bitcoin to speculate not to invest or do it long term) not saying it would not then come back and bubble again..bitcoin that is...just saying looks a lot like air out of a balloon right now too much in too fast ...too much now going out to fast....back to where you started.....hopefully to slow growth vrs no growth on the start over There you go. You answered your own question. I don't assume such things. hey there will be a reason....for all this ...it will be quite obvious say fall of 2015....but if BTC is going to survive would be nice to know it is just a classic boom/bust cycle vs a flash in the pan ....china driven uptick in price and the slow sell to oblivion as the other alternative whatever ..BTC still seems to be over priced and fragile......we will see I guess....I'm ok at 150 usd below that I start to lose just saying from the guy who got a miner on oct 18th 2013 when btc went from 150 to 1164 in 2 months and watching is slide down to 350 this last year..it seems to me it is a classic bubble.....i guess the question should be less about price and if it will do the classic boom part over again vs the dreaded view of it is all a dead cat bounce to worthlessness but all in all we probably would have been better off w/o china's big jump into btc last fall and we'd be quite the happy bunch now on our slow growth from 150 usd to 350 usd this last year (humans are silly) also this thread is called "finding the btc bottom" just trying to fit in You can't just write off the Chinese as stupid investors that panic bought for no reason at all. I think all the weak hands are long gone by now. You said it yourself that we would be happy at $350 by now if the bubble never happened. Who is to say the bubble hasn't already collapsed too far and that the running average of $400 isn't a more realistic price? |
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2166
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Automated posting
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on: October 27, 2014, 07:34:11 AM
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Well I've tried and tried to hold this thing together
But you wanted more than I could give.
...
Finally you outed yourself as someone who listens to shit.  its a song... duh yeah...a really bad one i could have written in a drunk attempt to write a song with the intention to storm the charts but fail miserably...oh now i see the bitcoin connection The difference between humor and odor: one is a shift of wit. |
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2167
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Finding BTC bottom
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on: October 27, 2014, 07:32:08 AM
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my question is (odd thou it may sound) is if 70% of BTC is in China as far as owned....and the assumption is BTC was a bubble when the majority
bought such...what is the price..if that majority decides to get out (ie cut their losses) gonna be at the end of such a flush of btc to fiat?
are we talking back to the start of the bubble $150 usd say last oct 2013 or will it over correct more so downward...seems to be the trend
<snipped part trying to answer his own question>
Chinese have post $150 bitcoins. It would make no sense for them to sell below their cost except for a few panickers. The best way to price bitcoin is its moving average which is based on many factors over time. my point is they got in on the boom...if they are what drove the boom in price their leaving is what will drive the bust in price assuming it is acting like a classic bubble (ie people were into bitcoin to speculate not to invest or do it long term) not saying it would not then come back and bubble again..bitcoin that is...just saying looks a lot like air out of a balloon right now too much in too fast ...too much now going out to fast....back to where you started.....hopefully to slow growth vrs no growth on the start over There you go. You answered your own question. I don't assume such things. |
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2168
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Finding BTC bottom
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on: October 27, 2014, 07:22:50 AM
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my question is (odd thou it may sound) is if 70% of BTC is in China as far as owned....and the assumption is BTC was a bubble when the majority
bought such...what is the price..if that majority decides to get out (ie cut their losses) gonna be at the end of such a flush of btc to fiat?
are we talking back to the start of the bubble $150 usd say last oct 2013 or will it over correct more so downward...seems to be the trend
<snipped part trying to answer his own question>
Chinese have post $150 bitcoins. It would make no sense for them to sell below their cost except for a few panickers. The best way to price bitcoin is its moving average which is based on many factors over time. |
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2170
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.
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on: October 27, 2014, 06:58:48 AM
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And why it matters to truly get Bitcoin comes up in all sorts of contexts: - Should I invest in altcoins?
- Can governments kill it?
- Does switching to bits mean inflation?
- What would be the effects of sidechains, or of spin-offs?
- Can I be sure the coins will hold value?
- Will mining centralization destroy Bitcoin?
- Can the blockchain be separated from the currency?
- Are premines an acceptable way of funding innovation?
- Does the price drop mean Bitcoin is losing popularity?
- What really gives bitcoins their value?
- Is the sky falling?
- Should I start a business, or invest in a business, doing X?
You can see examples of wrong answers to these questions every day, and how the wrong answers drive misguided decisions (and usually lost money). This list needs to go into an FAQ. |
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2175
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Other / Politics & Society / Re: The One Satoshi Project
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on: October 27, 2014, 05:35:32 AM
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As a follow up since this thread has been necro'd, there were at least a handful of people that got interested in Bitcoin a year or two later. Probably most of the paper wallets ended up in the trash, but who knows?
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2178
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.
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on: October 27, 2014, 02:01:03 AM
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Bitcoin as it stands today is way undervalued as simply a reserve currency for final settlements. Even if they raise the transaction fee to 20 USD it would still be cheap for an irreversible international wire transfer. Even if they only use it for high finance, it's still way undervalued. This is why we are long in Bitcoin.
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2179
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin made rich just a few but it ruined many
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on: October 27, 2014, 01:52:48 AM
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By a large margin, most bitcoins mined are not sold on exchanges. They are held. Most of the money on exchanges never saw a bitcoin wallet, they are only cash-in, cash-out traders. People that know Bitcoin, know that it is worth far more than gamblers about its future. Gamblers don't know anything about exponential growth. They only know how to bet on single digit margins, not two or three digit margins. They will still be playing single digit margins after they miss out on the next double or triple digit jump. That's just what they do.
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