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July 08, 2015, 06:42:16 AM *
News: ♦♦♦ If you are using any wallet other than Bitcoin Core 0.10.x or 0.9.5, then you should not trust incoming transactions until they have ~30 confirmations. More info.
 
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401  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Winklevoss Twins Aim to Take Bitcoin Mainstream With a Regulated Exchange on: January 23, 2015, 02:40:12 PM
What is their definition of a regulated exchange?
402  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Fork off on: January 21, 2015, 03:31:54 AM
...
Quote
but like anything it needs to be implemented fairly

It was announced in a white paper long before its public release and is open source. That's about as fair as you can get in the real world. It's usefulness is upgraded through an open source system. Anyone that has the best scientific research to achieve peer-reviewed consensus contributes to the optimization of usefulness.

Who's quote is that?  It's not mine.  If it's your own invention then you are basically forgot to pull the shades before playing with yourself and I've little interest in being involved in the endeavor.

Your mistake here, I quoted you verbatim.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=post;quote=10214865;topic=919629.0;sesc=f4694a0e2620b785371d0ed0b3fb79f4#top

Ah, Fonzie's bogus URL trick.  Not as common as your 'false-strawman' on the other thread though.  The new cbeast is plumbing the depths for sure.

Good morning class.  Yesterday we derived the chances of a thread spanning more than 10 pages and not containing a false-strawman assertion.   In today's class we will talk about the ethics of retaining a 'Donator' tag when buying an old forum personna.

If you legitimately did screw up the URL and are trying to indicate that "fairly carefully" and "fairly" are the same thing (then go on to give a dissertation about 'fairness') that's pretty weak sauce.

I did not check the URL. You implied that I somehow edited your post which I didn't. Wow, I am so impressed at your cleverness to look at my post history. Hey, this forum has changed rules about newbie posting, so I see no point in names anymore. I'll just use whatever name I feel like in protest.

Quote
If you legitimately did screw up the URL and are trying to indicate that "fairly carefully" and "fairly" are the same thing (then go on to give a dissertation about 'fairness') that's pretty weak sauce.
Your right. Your wishy-washy statements like this are meaningless. Instead they should be mocked and derided. My mistake. I won't give you the benefit of a doubt next time.
403  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: January 21, 2015, 03:00:55 AM
he needs to learn about the subjective theory of value if he thinks that the euro derives ultimate value from ECB "policy" is a hard fact, (besides euro volatility is about to be tested in the extreme) ... that's just pure Keynesian hopium talk (i.e BS). Some kind of behavioural economics psycho-babble.

Monetary economics was a stuffy dead old topic studied by a handful of people until bitcoin came along (3 years ago). Now we get the 'experts' spouting made up nonsense to defend their broken paradigm. And I'm pretty sure that statistically bitcoin volatility is still decreasing as the user base grows.

Very astute observations.
404  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 20, 2015, 03:38:12 PM
Why is the price going up in reaction to good news?

Is the topsy turvy world being flipped right side up?

Cat's out of the bag. Time to get long.
The cat's dead anyway. Just let it bounce.  Wink
405  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 20, 2015, 01:55:35 PM

406  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 20, 2015, 12:06:38 PM
Please don't post anything that isn't relevant and important. This has been a public service announcement. Thank you.
407  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 20, 2015, 11:12:03 AM
Bitcoin is a toxic brand that is unmarketable pretty much everywhere).

But Bitcoin still has a very important role: a central pivot point into emerging developments (such as Ripple, Stellar, NXT,...)

Without Bitcoin surviving for at least another year, they will find their job very, very difficult. But as time goes on and deals are done with banks and governments, the Bitcoin pivot will become less and less important.

It's in everyone's interest to keep the old steam engine serviceable for another while yet!!!
Bitcoin, while as a currency is not doing as well as hoped, is being re-branded as The Blockchain in the media. Bitcoin outputs will become various assets and reserve currencies. Ripple and Stellar will be replaced by Tether. NXT and all the other stake-based asset discussions belong elsewhere. Bitcoin is in a chrysalis state and will be reborn as a much more powerful and robust asset class.
408  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: January 20, 2015, 10:00:31 AM
i made a point some time ago that if Bitcoin were to become a global reserve currency, much like gold, due to maintaining the 1MB block size, all Bitcoin 2.0 projects trying to ride the MC would be eliminated due to high tx costs.  in that case, the blockchain would only be applicable to Bitcoin as Money:
Bitcoin can't be money with a capped transaction rate.

Gold only maintains purchasing power due to being subsidized by central banks - there's no such thing as intrinsic value for a currency.

If those transaction rate limits are hit and the situation isn't fixed, then Bitcoin will disappear.
Some Venture Capitalists are funding alternative systems betting on the failure of Bitcoin. I can't really blame those few. The miraculous advent of the first block chain is falling to the betrayal of its own proponents to follow the spirit of creating a global currency. Fortunately, it's only the dumb ones doing that. Drive on, Bitcoin!
409  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Fork off on: January 20, 2015, 09:35:17 AM
...
Quote
but like anything it needs to be implemented fairly

It was announced in a white paper long before its public release and is open source. That's about as fair as you can get in the real world. It's usefulness is upgraded through an open source system. Anyone that has the best scientific research to achieve peer-reviewed consensus contributes to the optimization of usefulness.

Who's quote is that?  It's not mine.  If it's your own invention then you are basically forgot to pull the shades before playing with yourself and I've little interest in being involved in the endeavor.

Your mistake here, I quoted you verbatim.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=post;quote=10214865;topic=919629.0;sesc=f4694a0e2620b785371d0ed0b3fb79f4#top
410  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: January 20, 2015, 09:30:39 AM

What does "idea qualitatively about the nature of those [entities]" even mean?
There is a difference between knowing what and who. Knowing what can be done pseudonymously. Knowing who requires guns. Which is it, what or who?

One example would be as I mentioned earlier:  How much mining gear is sitting in someone's home-office relative to how much in liquid cooled racks in a datacenter.

I'd also really like to know about jurisdictional distribution of both mining and transfer nodes.  I think there are some maps, but such things are fairly easy to fake (and usually fairly dubious even when they are not faked.)

A more ideal system would make some of this stuff more known with higher reliability for operational reasons while preserving as much anonymity as possible.  But as I've said before, Bitcoin is what we've got and it's not likely or even possible that it will change in such ways.

I agree with you, but that is the future, not today's reality. Mining will one day be done almost entirely by datacenters. You may not know exactly where they are, but they will be well protected by very large guns. Bitcoin doesn't need jurisdictions because you know you can't trust anyone, you can only trust the protocol and how it is engineered to balance mathematical security and networking limitations. If a major mining firm is going to overtly attack the network, it will destroy their investment. If they attack an individual, then it is best that you remain as anonymous as possible.

And if they attack you because you are anonymous?  That doesn't actually seem like it should be a hugely challenging technical problem if there was sufficient pressure to do it (such as the forfeiture ones mining gear for example.)
If you are anonymous, they wouldn't know about your mining gear now, would they? Cancelling an anonymous payment might be a hospital bill for a child with cancer. That would not bode well for the miner that signed that block.

If "forget about anonymity" then can you tell me what it is about Bitcoin that makes it particularly worth supporting or using.

Who are you quoting? I presume it is Mr. Strawman. Bitcoin is pseudonymous. Anonymity is a social construct. It's not part of the protocol, but how it is used.

My answer would be 'counter-party risk protection' but to say the truth there would be so little else that I would pretty much be forced to move on to more promising pastures (which also provided counter-party risk protection as a minimum.)
Your strawman attempt at leaving wiggle room is in vain. You cannot have counter-party without trust in an authority. You Sir, are a Statist.
411  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Fork off on: January 20, 2015, 09:02:27 AM
In a nutshell I like proof-of-work fine, but like anything it needs to be implemented fairly carefully to optimize it's usefulness.
Here you go again making very vague statements. You did answer my question from the other thread and in that other thread you won't pin down a clear answer either. Don't change the subject with non-PoW social engineering schemes.

Quote
but like anything it needs to be implemented fairly
It was announced in a white paper long before its public release and is open source. That's about as fair as you can get in the real world. It's usefulness is upgraded through an open source system. Anyone that has the best scientific research to achieve peer-reviewed consensus contributes to the optimization of usefulness.
412  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: January 20, 2015, 08:34:15 AM

What does "idea qualitatively about the nature of those [entities]" even mean?
There is a difference between knowing what and who. Knowing what can be done pseudonymously. Knowing who requires guns. Which is it, what or who?

One example would be as I mentioned earlier:  How much mining gear is sitting in someone's home-office relative to how much in liquid cooled racks in a datacenter.

I'd also really like to know about jurisdictional distribution of both mining and transfer nodes.  I think there are some maps, but such things are fairly easy to fake (and usually fairly dubious even when they are not faked.)

A more ideal system would make some of this stuff more known with higher reliability for operational reasons while preserving as much anonymity as possible.  But as I've said before, Bitcoin is what we've got and it's not likely or even possible that it will change in such ways.
I agree with you, but that is the future, not today's reality. Mining will one day be done almost entirely by datacenters. You may not know exactly where they are, but they will be well protected by very large guns. Bitcoin doesn't need jurisdictions because you know you can't trust anyone, you can only trust the protocol and how it is engineered to balance mathematical security and networking limitations. If a major mining firm is going to overtly attack the network, it will destroy their investment. If they attack an individual, then it is best that you remain as anonymous as possible.
413  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: January 20, 2015, 08:09:48 AM
Certainly I'd want fewer unknowns and more knows before I was very comfortable with huge fraction of my net worth riding on Bitcoin.

What variables would you like to know to make you cofortable?

I'm chronically worried about people's behavior being influenced by legal and regulatory issues.  In spite of the tough talk, it's hard not to notice that when the rubber meets the road most people in the community (and out) capitulate immediately and do what the fuck they are told.  I almost certainly would.  The propensity is directly proportional to what one has to lose.

Also, as I've mentioned a bunch lately, I see the solution on a collision course with the big data companies if it is to survive at all.

Thus, I would like to have a much better idea qualitatively about the nature of those running mining gear, transfer nodes, etc.  This will allow me to better predict what might happen when and take appropriate actions.
What does "idea qualitatively about the nature of those [entities]" even mean?
There is a difference between knowing what and who. Knowing what can be done pseudonymously. Knowing who requires guns. Which is it, what or who?
414  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Fork off on: January 20, 2015, 07:55:43 AM
Bitcoin is economically broken at the fundamental level with respect to support reward for POW.  This because it will always approach net zero no matter what.

PoW is economically broken because the margins tend towards zero? Seriously?


Yes.  It means that to attack Bitcoin one must only make the reward higher to do so.  And if the reward for supporting Bitcoin tends toward zero the cost of doing so is fairly minimal.


Not exactly... because even if the net profit tends toward slightly above breakeven, the gross rewards still ensure a high network hashrate which cannot be attacked without suffering major financial losses.
Still makes more sense to participate in the network (or not at all) than to attack it.

Several points:

 - With any significant fluctuation in value we should expect a fair percentage of mining to be below net zero.

 - I would not rule out a 'major financial loss' being acceptable to some who could be threatened by competition from a successful Bitcoin.

 - Being able to accurately predict the future (say, because you are going to implement an attack and it will probably be successful in achieving a result) could offer ways to realize a significant reward which would offset some costs.

 - How much sense it makes to power-down vs. to participate in an attack depends a great deal on whether you have gear which might be useful in the future or is likely to be at the end of it's useful life.  This depends on, among other things, the technological landscape, the likely future of Bitcoin, and the jurisdictional issues on one's locale.

All that said, you well could be right.  Your gross v. net observations are good ones.  I would not bet that my concerns are terribly valid.  This is theoretical hand-waving mostly, and I always like to play devil's advocate.

---

I would point out that a system collapse is not the only kind of attack and probably not the most likely one.  I would consider tainting to be very much an attack and probably terminal for the system.  Certainly it would be terminal for my interest in it (though my coins and transactions are clean so I would just register and liquidate at the first whiff of trouble here...and it is the thing I watch for most closely.)  Here is something I could easily see happening:

 - govt works with a partner to do some sort of licence and registration service.

 - partner runs infrastructure to efficiently communicate {color}-listed transactions, authorize clean block formations, or whatever implementation works.  (I've wondered aloud whether the new Inverse Bloom Filter Lookup Tables could help here.)

 - govt makes regulations that all miners must comply at the risk of confiscation of gear and/or other mild punishments.  Or perhaps just a tax break.

 - govt coordinates with other governments to follow more or less the same pattern and use the same tech partner(s).  The only business model I could see for 'Coin Validation' (who seems to be at least playing dead) was this.

Really the biggest argument I see against something like that would be that A) Bitcoin in it's present form is really pretty useful as a honeypot, and B) attacks of this nature would just provoke development of a more hardened system.

The same weakness in terms of minimal profits I outlined above exists here, however, and just as much of a factor.  It would be more easy for a miner to capitulate (rather than shut down) because a fair fraction of the population (and even plenty of Bitcoiners perhaps!) would see it as a good thing.  Gotta do something about all those evil terrorists, druggies, pedos, etc you know.


Since the only point in question was a matter of profits, I was curious why you decided to rant further in this thread. Then I remembered having asked a question about your feelings about PoW mining. Of course I won't quote the entire thread here, but you answered it nicely here.


Certainly I'd want fewer unknowns and more knows before I was very comfortable with huge fraction of my net worth riding on Bitcoin.

What variables would you like to know to make you cofortable?
415  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: January 20, 2015, 06:41:30 AM
Certainly I'd want fewer unknowns and more knows before I was very comfortable with huge fraction of my net worth riding on Bitcoin.

What variables would you like to know to make you cofortable?
416  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What the next step should be. My 2c. on: January 20, 2015, 06:29:33 AM
A pegged asset like Tether would be a good item for regulators to look at. Since it is more than just payment processing it should be treated like cash. One way to limit it's use is to allow limited licenses for its issuance in some arbitrary proportion to the m-zero money supply. Then there is no reason to track it afterward, just like cash. Regulators can inflate its issuance with Keynesian alacrity.
417  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Fork off on: January 20, 2015, 03:17:13 AM
I wasn't the one to start using ad hominem.

There are actually two distinct constructs at play here, they are not equivalent. Consider:

Me.
Quote
Your argument makes no sense, you defend central planning, and therefore you're a socialist fuckwit.

You.
Quote
You're this, and that, also lalalalala I can't hear all the sense you make because it goes against my conviction of being entitled to free stuff.
An empty post filled with a strawman "you defend central planning", an ad hominem "socialist fuckwit", and another strawman "being entitled". Bravo!
418  Other / Meta / Thumbnail images on: January 19, 2015, 08:07:58 PM
Can we get images to post as re-sizable thumbnails? Images are fun, but they should be optional.
419  Economy / Speculation / Re: Time to say goodbye on: January 19, 2015, 07:28:42 PM
These were nice years, but unfortunately all things come to an end. It is time to say "Goodbye". I still think bitcoin is a brilliant invention which brings immense power to the masses but the human element was more agile and found ways to almost destroy it. It's wounded, but not by a security flaw, not by a design flaw, just by misuse and abuse. Nobody can tell what will happen in the future but one thing is certain: nothing goes up indefinitely and all markets are cyclic.

Bitcoin was a chance to learn on economics, markets, psychology and technology. A great ROI. I would recommend anyone here to buy whatever amount one can loose in  the next 5 minutes and put it aside until 2017-01-17, along with the same amount in USD. I am very curious which will have more value then.

Good bye.

of course things go up indefinitely eg inflation of fiat.
x20
Literally. The USD has lost 95% against the CPI since the Federal Reserve began and it's not slowing down its inflation.
420  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Fork off on: January 19, 2015, 07:21:14 PM
Admit it, you are a Union Organizer. You don't want to increase productivity, but you want to be paid more so you try to convince others to go on strike. You can be replaced.

That's an ad-hominem, not an argument. Try harder.


Haha, I'm not the only one who noticed that ex-cbeast loves to use ad-hominems...

Oh shit, is that cbeast? No wonder.
Union Organizer is only an ad hominem for people that are uneducated.

Say it: "i'm a socialist". That'll make everything clearer.

of redditards. so what?
they're as irrelevant as dogecoin when it comes to Bitcoin.

I wasn't the one to start using ad hominem.

Pot. Kettle. Black.
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