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What will happen next?
Scenario 1) Sideways price movement coupled with the increasing difficulty means that the ratio declines to 1:1, e.g. with a price of $10.00 when there is an estimated difficulty of 1,000,000.
Scenario 2) Rapidly increasing difficulty is met with equal increase in price, keeping the ratio at 2:1. For example, the price breaks $10 when difficulty estimate surpasses 500,000. Bitcoin is at $20.00 by the time the difficulty estimate is at 1,000,000.
Scenario 3) Another pop in price pushes the ratio back up from 2:1 to 3:1. At an estimated difficulty of 500,000 the price goes to $15. It could come back down as low as $10 or even lower like $7.50, while difficulty increases to 1,000,000, sinking the ratio to 1:1 or 0.75:1.
These are the optimistic scenarios. Pessimistic scenarios, like a drop in price and/or a rapidly slowing difficulty growth, don't seem likely. As in the chart, the record low price/difficulty ratio was around 0.75 at the beginning of April.
A quick update. Scenario 3 is has happened. At a projected difficulty of ~600,000, the price popped over $18 so we're over the ratio of 3:1. The question now is how high will this go in the very near-term? With the critical mass and media explosion, we could see a return to the historic ratio highs from back in November, nearing 6:1. That would be a doubling from $18 to $36. We'll see what happens over the coming weekdays when the banks open to start processing more transfers. This is a fantastic time to be mining. We need more miners, and fast. Hopefully the vendors can deliver more GPUs soon. I see the difficulty as a lagging indicator, so we need a matching rise in difficulty to support the rising price. That is absolutely critical to avoid large corrections and instill confidence in bitcoin. Looks like the second part of Scenario 3 is in full swing. With an estimated 800,000+ on the way soon, and price at 15 as of now, we are on the way to much lower ratios. Still have a way to go, however! |
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API is currently polling some stats incorrectly. This should be fixed early tomorrow morning.
It appears that my shares are not rising at all, they seem to be stuck at 456, I hope this is what you are fixing because it has really effected my payout. I am experiencing the same thing...just checked all of my workers...they are all showing "accepted" shares being submitted, but "This Round" shares are not increasing. Of course my estimated payout is dropping accordingly. Hoping this is just front-end stats and not going to affect the actual payout!...we'll see when this block is completed. Maybe this is specific to the EAST US server? |
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Anyone else having problems logging into the website? I'm mining just fine, but whenever I try to log into the website it says no such account exists. Ugh. Not the first time I've encountered problems with it so I'll be patient.
Yeah...same here...just noticed it. My workers are still cranking along also, so it appears to just be front-end stuff. Probably related to the server upgrade. Just being patient at this point. Front-end is back up now...all appears to be okay. |
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Anyone else having problems logging into the website? I'm mining just fine, but whenever I try to log into the website it says no such account exists. Ugh. Not the first time I've encountered problems with it so I'll be patient.
Yeah...same here...just noticed it. My workers are still cranking along also, so it appears to just be front-end stuff. Probably related to the server upgrade. Just being patient at this point. |
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sorry let me rephrase that, my bitcoin address changed in my virtual wallet, but my address in deepbit stayed the same. Should i change the address on deepbit now so it might go to my wallet? Oh  That's not the problem at all. All your old addresses are still usable, your bitcoin client will just show a new one each time Just figured this out as well...but thought I would clarify a little further... The bitcoin client will randomly change the visible address in your wallet...ostensibly to encourage anonymity. However, any new address just gets added to your personal list of addresses under SETTINGS > YOUR RECEIVING ADDRESSES. All of them will still work. So, you don't need to change anything at deepbit...in fact, you may want to keep your payment address the same so you will be able to distinguish "payments from deepbit" from other payments. Whether you do this really depends on whether being able to identify an aggregated total to that one address would bother you if someone were able to link that address to YOU. For more info. on addresses and anonymity, check out the wiki pages: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Addresshttps://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/AnonymityBy the way Ty, thanks for all of the great content you have contributed to this thread...I have been contributing to the deepbit pool for a couple of days now and all is smooth...learned a lot in a short time here! |
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One other thing you might want to know...
When you go to buy the resistors, you will notice that you have a choice of several different wattage ratings.
1/8w, 1/4, 1/2 and so on.
I built mine successfully using 75ohm, 1/4w, 2% tolerance resistors.
So, I know these work with my second 6870 card.
If you can't find these exactly, you might try a different ohm rating such as 68ohm or 100ohm...1/4 or 1/2w rated.
I have read that other people have had success with these combinations.
Tolerance does not seem to be a big factor in choosing a resistor for this purpose... but personally, I wouldn't go higher than 5% just to be safe.
Good luck and happy mining!
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