Hi S3052, Have you archived all previous results from this poll? Is that available?

Thanks Joseph, I followed up with Bitcoincharts who clarified that the prices for each currency represented the volume weighted average price from all bitcoin markets trading that particular currency. At no time are fiat to fiat currencies compared (USD and EUR often diverge 10% from forex granting arbitrage opportunities). He added that:

The Trend that can be told
   is not the eternal Trend
The name that can be named
   is not the eternal Name.

The unnamable is the eternally real.
Naming is the origin
   of all particular things.

Free from desire, you realize the mystery.
Caught in desire, you see only the manifestations.

Yet mystery and manifestations
   arise from the same source.
This source is called darkness.

Darkness within darkness.
The gateway to all understanding.

     --Lao Tzu

Bit-Pay looks promising, but I do not operate out of the United States, and do not yet have a web store front. So I failed to register on step 2 of 4. Anyway, how do they solve the issue of pricing - convert everything into dollars immediately?

Well, I've just started posting products on this forum. For each item, I link to a post on Bitcoin Classified where the price is adjusted based on a daily weighted average. I was counting on worst reasonable case scenario is a 40% drop in a day. But since I'm ultimately long on bitcoins, I hedge 20%, hoping I'll gain once in a while.

Just today I cut prices to a loss to spur some activity on this sleeping forum, but if I intend to make a profit, it'll matter quite a bit. I might have to renegotiate a price by email just before offering a bitcoin receiving address. That's how it tends to work with all interpersonal trades I've made anyway.

Edd, what's your profitability price? I hope you didn't peg your prices in June! But, I've got a similar feeling. However, I can't take a material loss for too long. I thought I would set a reasonable margin and just slide with the weekly average.

Maybe you've noticed from forum members, that people don't generally understand logs, exponentiation, nor fractions. A change from $4 to $3 is the same as from $40 to $39. I suspect this gives voice to the hawkish squawking. But I don't suspect anyone who could program a stability-bot suffers this dillusion.

Does your crystal ball shed any light on the future trend, plus or minus? My eyeball comparisons have run out of steam and I could use a good bed time story.

Hi Everyone,

The artists are pretty excited about the Tupilak project and look forward to hearing some feedback about their creations from people in the Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa, Australia, and all the islands of the world. While many don't even have an email address, most understand that displaying their work on the net could bring many benefits, including a steadier income, new techniques, tools, and cultural exchange. Some, to be honest, couldn't care less as long as I pay them cash (same for bitcoin).

I don't think this would be possible without bitcoin. I believe that bitcoin helps bring the world to higher latitudes from where we can send a slice of the Arctic back. Most here, just as anywhere, don't want to deal with international money transfers, pay pal, and certainly not fraud. The fact that I can pay artists in cash, receive digital cash from customers, and send a package the same day is a game changer. None the less, this is an experiment, a proof of concept. I posted photos from a sample of pieces with more soon to come. If it works out, we'll display more variety of works, from hunting knives, masks, kayak (qajaq) accessories, drums... But to get things started on Tupilaks, I've slashed prices 15% to 35% and shipping is free, by which I really mean free, to just about anywhere in the world.

I'd love to know what you all think, ideas for new pieces, or how we could make things better.

Thanks for your support,
Netrin

With deflation, extant interest rates are more valuable to the lender and crushing to the debtor.

Thanks for the shout out. Kudos to your order=spread(1-probability) and a hunch from your chart that $4.501 was about 10% probable, I'll sleep very well. Thanks!

You're looking at M0-esque BASE money supply. Note that BASE doubles in late 2008, plateaus and rose again modestly (25%) this year. M2 has been more subtle, never raising more than 11% annually with a minima at 2% in 2010, but right back at 10% M2 annual growth today.




This is interesting and worth a re-read. My buddy at HSBC made a similar point that went over my head. So if I understand you, BASE, M2 growth hasn't been a result of QE* but was rather the symptom of deleveraging that made QE* 'necessary'.

The average 'saver' is not investing in the stock market, he is selling his fiat and hoarding stock. He is trying to retain value for his retirement against a devaluing currency but contributing very little to innovation through his purchase.

In my own case, I failed to sell long after the $32 high because I loved the asset. It took me a long time to get over infidelity and ride the waves. Most people are not in it for the appreciation, which is good, and reflected in fast highs and slow price declines.

I hope you don't mean in the next 24 hours. Sure anything can happen within the month, and perhaps the week, but we've never seen more than 50% drops in any single day this year. Since June 8th we've average less than 2% decline each day. A drop to $2 from $5 within a month would be quite extraordinary. Aside from negative momentum, I think most indicators, fundamental and technical, say up.

Despite the many advantages of bitcoin, they don't make pricing easy. If your operations are tied to a particular fiat currency (euro, dollars, peso...), how do you set your prices in bitcoin, last close, weighted average? And how much do you mark up prices as a hedge against inflation risk? Do you take other precautions?

From 8 June to 9 September, each bitcoin has lost about a dollar in value on average every three days. Over those three months (93 days), bitcoin has devalued 88%. The largest single day drop was 46% on the 11th of June and a 42% drop just last week. Certainly there have also been spectacular gains, but the seasonal trend has been down and the volatility risks great.

Despite this volatility, a merchant is in no way required to hold bitcoins. The value only needs to hold between setting a price and purchase. Any longer is market speculation. Do merchants hedge against 40% drops and for 2% daily inflation, perhaps marking prices up 22% ?

Hi David,

I see you haven't updated your bitcoin page since Mybitcoin went down. I hope that hasn't caused you terrible trouble. I'm afraid it has. I am terribly sorry. If you haven't given up hope on bitcoins, I would like to buy some of your Wuyi, if you'll ship to Greenland.

Wishing you the best fortune with your business,
Netrin

Hello David,

In the distant past, I had been willing to exchange bitcoins not for cash, but for confirmed tea orders from your competitor in Milwuakee, Rishi Tea. I am not in any way recommending this backward method. My only point is that as a bitcoin believer, tea junkie, and non-US resident, I have no reason to touch dollars but would make you bitcoin rich with my oolong habit.

The gift cards are not a bad idea, and I might take you up on your offer. However, why not post a few teasers here and see who bites?

Oh, shit! Did you get screwed by MyBitCoin? Please remove this link, it's not helping your sales. http://www.nmteaco.com/bitcoin.html

WUYI Rock Tea

Quote With a nutty, roasted, flavor and sweet undertones, this WuYi makes a wonderful iced tea, perfect for the summer.This tea is grown in the WuYi Mountains of the Fujian Province, where the warm moisture and high elevation is perfect for producing this delightful Oolong. If you've heard WuYi tea in reference to weight loss, that's because it is packed with powerful antioxidants and polyphenols, which some believe promote healthy weight loss. Oolongs teas are best enjoyed when the leaves are briefly infused with hot water, which is then poured off. The tea is then re-infused and tea is poured to the guests after about 1 minute. The leaves may be reinfused several times, with each resulting infusion yielding different liquor from the proceeding cup. Fujian, China

1 oz - 1.3 BTC 4 oz - 4.2 BTC 8 oz - 6.8 BTC 16 oz - 11.5 BTC

Yes, please I'll take half a pound if you'll ship to Greenland. Oh, and maybe one of your lovely tea bowls. Or maybe you'd rather trade for a tupilak (see link in my signature)?

Teenage miners who can't keep their pants on for three months, but start ejaculating coins as soon as they see lowered prices, are not a healthy base for this economy. We might all go blind.

It's not going to drop to $0.5 tomorrow. In fact, I think it's just as likely that we've corrected sufficiently from the $32 high.




If you look at the bubble in relation to the trend (violet line perpendicular to thin red line) it is perfectly symmetrical. The take off from $8 is popularly credited to the Silky Gawker article. We've returned to the trend and $8 in August. Now, I believe, we're just continuing down with momentum.

I don't know if you can feel it, but the grumpy mood has lifted from this forum. Or maybe Cosby coins were a good laugh.

Perhaps text on or under the graph such as
lo2%:$4.15
25%:$5.31
50%:$5.49
etc
Thanks again for publishing your results!

EDIT: Or if you have the full rainbow of % predictions anyway, maybe drop the resistance/support lines and draw two curves: y-axis:%, x-axis:$

$/BTC broke out of the long term trend April/May, hasn't returned to the long term trend until August and we are already one month later at the bottom of that channel. My bet is similar to the OP, but I wouldn't be surprised if we drop below the long term trend in proportion to the breakout that lead us to $32. For every crest there's a trough.