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1241  Economy / Economics / Re: Recession Imminent on: August 04, 2011, 03:59:57 PM
its well known that population growth increases in good times and i can argue this is a distortion as well.  

This seems to contradict slightly different but related statistics, that richer (and smarter, more educated) people have fewer children. Perhaps all, including the poor, have fewer surviving children when the economy slumps, but I'm skeptical...

1242  Economy / Economics / Re: Recession Imminent on: August 04, 2011, 03:22:01 PM
What has happened is that thanks to the machines we work less hours, in better working conditions (the machies do the harsh work) and we enjoy a better standard of living. So please lets stop the crazyness, we need more automatition so we have to work less hours and have an even better standard of living.

Yes, reduce working hour is actually a very good way to solve this problem, and it is very scaleable!

Let's say from tomorrow, all the people who have the job should only work 4.5 days a week, at the same time their salary reduced by 10%. What happens then? All the companies will have to use those saved 10% salary payment to hire 10% more workers to keep the productivity up, then the jobless problem solved right away!

While I agree, with our technologically advanced society, we should be working less and enjoying our lives more. Not out of necessity, but pleasure!

To your credit, the German government when studying the implications of expanding the work week noted that people were in fact much more productive in the first hour than the last hour. So it would seem that cutting hours would have a productive benefit, if they could be made up for by fresh yet unemployed workers. It must also be noted that despite official limits, Germans tend to work five extra hours anyway. I would assume similar numbers apply to workers the world over.

It is still a fallacy to believe that reduced hours with a proportionally increased work force is a productivity wash, particularly in a recession. Consider that drops in employment already lag behind production. One must assume that the least productive workers were laid off first. A reduced work week would cut the most productive workers to the benefit of the least productive and to the detriment of total productivity.

The difference per worker in unskilled labour is very little, so your idea might work in factories. However, this would be a terrible policy in highly skilled labour where worker productivity differs by orders of magnitude, which many software developers here must have observed first hand.
1243  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Keynesian Wiki Editors Can't Handle the Truth on: August 04, 2011, 12:02:31 AM
Fascinating retro video. Thanks
1244  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Debt Deal Reached on: August 03, 2011, 06:11:57 AM
Flat tax is a joke. You pay 10% of nothing and I pay 10% of a million dollars. There's nothing fair about that. How about we each pay the same dollar amount, or better yet, pay for the services we actually use?
...millionaire, because if not your defense of them and the fact that they almost always pay much less than their share of taxes is pathetic

You have to admit, Bitcoin2cash's comment was consistent. He's not saying he shouldn't pay for his benefit... but pay for the services he actually uses.

I choose not to own a car and resent having to pay for roads I do not use. I acknowledge the indirect benefit (such as transporting goods I buy). If each user of the road were directly taxed, then I would pay for my fair share through higher prices. Perhaps that is less efficient and I will be taxed more...
1245  Economy / Speculation / Re: the bitcoin bubble revisit on: August 03, 2011, 04:26:08 AM
Top 12 Reasons for dot-com failures: 1. blah 2. blah 3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10.blah 11.blah, 12.blah blah

Yes Exactly, what does this have to do with bitcoin? Well actually, many of those points are great descriptions of most of our fledgling sites. But I agree; Your post is irrelevant to bitcoin and the discussion. I would like to hear why you think June was not a classic bubble or why two scaled superimposed price graphs (which happen to be MtGox and NASDAQ) were not both picture perfect examples of bubbles.
1246  Economy / Speculation / Re: Long, slow slide on: August 02, 2011, 06:02:06 PM
In the past
two months: average price: $22 +/- $10 (~45%)
one month: average price: $15 +/- $2.5 (~17%)
I think a merchant would be wise to sell with a 25% volatility hedge premium.
1247  Economy / Speculation / Re: the bitcoin bubble revisit on: August 02, 2011, 05:25:35 PM
We could make that graph fit anything, if we look hard enough.

That is not true. It's certainly scaled, but the zeros are on the same line. Bubbles have symmetry. And you can only determine a bubble after it's popped. If you find something else that matches, then you've found another bubble.

Plus, when you're free to move the reference goalposts to include one month, one year, one decade... we could really find a perfect match between the dot com bubble, the market collapse of 2008 AND the movements of glaciers and ice masses around the Earth over the last two or three thousand years... this is all pretty pointless.

A bubble in a market occurs when the price growth itself is the catalyst for more growth irrespective of the fundamentals. If glaciers and ice masses move according to positive feedback, then yes, they too would exhibit the same graph pattern. It is not pointless. Failure to recognize a bubble from technical data condemns you to huge losses.

Incidentally, the recent bitcoin bubble rose, peaked, and popped entirely in June. We've seen three such unambiguous examples in bitcoin price history, and no doubt more to come.
1248  Economy / Economics / Re: Recession Imminent on: August 02, 2011, 05:19:40 PM
Luditism...What has happened is that thanks to the machines we work less hours, in better working conditions (the machies do the harsh work) and we enjoy a better standard of living.

If it were not for the bloody wheel, boat or beast, we'd have unlimited employment opportunities hauling goods around on our backs!
1249  Economy / Economics / Re: Recession Imminent on: August 02, 2011, 03:28:32 PM
Computers and robots are the looms and cotton spinning mills of the day. Programmers are code weavers and multi-core/thread spinners. Nothing's changed since 1769.
1250  Economy / Economics / Re: Silver undervalued or gold overvalued? on: August 02, 2011, 01:37:01 PM
My understanding is that 40% of available silver is used in industry and that reserves are at historic lows. Perhaps alternatives are readily available? Anyway, here are recent gold/silver price ratios:

1251  Economy / Speculation / Re: $/BTC Time Series Analysis on: August 02, 2011, 12:52:37 PM
With 7200 new coins generated every day with a matching trade volume, we can only hope miners are patient. While prices rising, miners would be right to hold, but their confidence is heavily tested on the way down. Casual day traders are afraid of the market and recent chaos is hardly attractive to first time buyers. It's up to extant holders to buy more at these bargain prices.
1252  Economy / Speculation / Re: the bitcoin bubble revisit on: August 01, 2011, 11:57:12 PM

1 week in Bitcoinland = 1 year in Nasdaq dotcomland
1253  Other / Politics & Society / Re: The $1 Billion Armageddon Trade on: August 01, 2011, 11:50:17 PM

Can someone please explain the gist of a futures trade. Some dude predicts the AAA rating will go down, which will force the US govt to pay higher rates (or not at all?)... then...the trader promised what?
1254  Economy / Economics / Re: U.S. Dollar Plummets as Bernanke Suggests Further Easing on: August 01, 2011, 10:17:41 PM
I just wish people would realize that presidents, whether republican or democrat, really DO NOT have control of the economy...The Fed and Congress have way more sway in it, but presidents always take credit...

Only one head at a time...
1255  Other / Politics & Society / Re: The $1 Billion Armageddon Trade on: August 01, 2011, 06:30:44 PM
Lincoln and JFK tried this and both were assassinated as a direct result. Though I do believe their models are the only one's that are actually workable.

Clearly the SS risks/ed their lives to protect these, other presidents, their families, and diplomats. But isn't it odd that the only responsibilities of the Secret Service are to protect politicians and the physical currency? As if the mission were to keep these two institutions in line.

"Psst... Mr. President, just a reminder, so we're clear about a few things..."
1256  Economy / Economics / Re: Silver undervalued or gold overvalued? on: August 01, 2011, 05:47:09 PM
I think tin is undervalued, or rather the food preserved within.
1257  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: GnuPG versus TrueCrypt on: August 01, 2011, 05:26:58 PM
Versioned backups let me sleep soundly at night. I commit all of my symmetrically encrypted wallets into a git repository (any version control system will work, though DVCS have advantages), commit locally after every use and push/sync/replicate periodically.

TrueCrypt will likely expose all of your keys during each use, whereas encrypting individual wallets puts your eggs into multiple lighter baskets. It is my belief that bitcoin is not yet ready for users uncomfortable with the command line, which to me is synonymous with yet unfounded one-click security expectations.
1258  Economy / Economics / Re: Deflation and Bitcoin, the last word on this forum on: August 01, 2011, 02:32:12 AM
gold is not a currency because it is not easily divisible.

Prior to computer networking, how did one easily divide a $100 bill?
1259  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Why not 10 coins per block and a block every 2 minutes? on: August 01, 2011, 02:21:53 AM
This is the real bji, right?

I certainly did intend to directly and personally tease you with Moynihan's quote because I hope we've all been arguing not between differences of opinion but assertions of fact.

 "Everyone is entitled to his own opinion. But, Senator, you are not entitled to your own facts"
     -- Daniel Patrick Moynihan, 2003 or James R. Schlesinger, 1973

I then continued to quote your post, commenting throughout. I agreed with you that this thread has had multiple sub-threads and I tried to address those diversions as I saw them. My veiled insult ("Honest nodes will acknowledge defeat, malicious nodes will not, much like this thread") was a side note directed at the general inconclusive sub-threads and the posters who propagated them, not to you specifically. I hope you will accept my apology. I sincerely did not mean to single you out, but I can see that by quoting you exclusively, that is what I've done. I am sorry.

More than any other post, I appreciated your attempt to put your argument in numbers. Despite Kjj pointing out the limited domain, I hoped to see revised attempts to quantifying the difficulty of a double-spend attack, both within a few blocks and over a sustained attack.
1260  Economy / Economics / Re: Recession Imminent on: July 30, 2011, 01:37:01 AM
I believe the QE(s) had a profound effect. Bad money (M2,3,MZM) contracted massively. The stock and housing markets should have collapsed worse than 1929. But the Fed "learned from that mistake" and instead printed money 360%. So instead of collapse, deflation, and ten year recovery, we'll have a long painful collapse, inflation, and no recovery.
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