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1341  Economy / Speculation / Re: $/BTC Time Series Analysis on: July 23, 2011, 06:13:12 PM
To my eyeballs, the pattern we see today best matches December. Even when viewed on a log scale, this summer pattern is larger and longer than any previous pattern. The former jumped ~5x within a month and plateaued for two months while around May prices jumped ~20x within two months. Does it reasonably follow that we can expect this plateau to last another month or more? Chodpaba, would that sort of thinking fit your models?





1342  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: If you guys want Bitcoin to heat up again .... on: July 23, 2011, 04:50:52 PM
StrikeSapphire Casino https://strikesapphire.com/?afc=3Ee9Kj2j2J already offers live Texas Holdem Tables.

Great looking site, runs smoothly on Linux. I'm on a table now. Where are you? Smiley

Maybe you should limit the number of different games until volume > 1. I vote initially for one click NL Texas only.
1343  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: If you guys want Bitcoin to heat up again .... on: July 23, 2011, 04:40:37 PM
I haven't made a trade in 4 days. It's futile against bots and the rich who manipulate the chart the way they want it.

The bots are just playing the technicals. There are plenty of pennies to be made just surfing the oscillating channels. The rich are educated not magical.

Nobody has been able to challenge the order at $13.50 for days. I surmise we'll have the same problem when we want to increase the price when he's ready to sell.

Obviously supply >= demand. When demand > supply, the price will increase. If bots are keeping the price low, they're only building up pressure. One can only manipulate prices for so long.

GIRL: I want to buy a pink pony for $13 ... no, actually at $13.5 ... no, wait how about the green one for $13.25 ... How does $13.10 sound? Oh look $13.30 for a golden pony ... no, I changed my mind $13.20 ...

DAD: Enough. Look I'll give you $15 cash, just pick a damn pony and let's get out of here!
1344  Economy / Speculation / Re: Keep it real now the investors are coming onboard on: July 23, 2011, 03:51:56 PM
Of course the rise to $32 was a bubble! Time scales don't matter, symmetry does.

Mt. Gox Bitcoin May to today (late July 2011) vs.
Nasdaq Composite 1994 to 2008

Nice, you're the first one to say bubble and back it up with a suitable overlay. Given the vast difference in timescales, this makes things quite interesting assuming we're past the post peak dip. Looking at the Nasdaq after the bubble, it since grown toward the 2000 mark, will be interesting to  see if bitcoin takes on the same steady growth or if we'll see more peaks again(assuming it doesn't fall or meltdown).

Please excuse the clutter. I've posted this elsewhere, but I think it's equally relevant here. Bitcoin has experienced three such plateaus after a run up, overshoot, and small collapse. The general seasonal trend however is exponential gains and I see no reason to expect the pattern to stop until the bitcoin economy either reaches mainstream/saturation or fails completely. In annual terms, I think we are very low on the sigmoid curve, but we'd need a few years to prove that assertion right or wrong.



Note that 2008 was the year the housing bubble collapsed (after easing the tech bubble fall out) and the global economy tanked. I don't think there is any such analogy to the bitcoin economy. If anything it indicates the impetus upon which bitcoin was born (3 January, 2009)
1345  Economy / Speculation / Re: Keep it real now the investors are coming onboard on: July 23, 2011, 02:38:33 PM
Of course the rise to $32 was a bubble! Time scales don't matter, symmetry does.


Mt. Gox Bitcoin May to today (late July 2011) vs.
Nasdaq Composite 1994 to 2008
1346  Economy / Speculation / Re: $/BTC Time Series Analysis on: July 23, 2011, 03:36:40 AM
Thanks for your answers and for sharing your results...

What I put in this thread about this ongoing research should not be used as guidance. ... If I thought that it could be absolutely relied upon for guidance I would keep it to myself so as not to reveal my market positions. But as it is, this is just me thinking out loud about some ongoing research... Carry on.

Your models have yet to guide me toward profit, but in the last month I have lost most money in direct proportion to the my deviance from your models.
1347  Economy / Speculation / Re: Long, slow slide on: July 22, 2011, 07:52:18 PM
So CurbsideProphet, strictly by your logic, if let's say, oh I don't know, the Federal Reserve Bank convinced the treasury to print say 4x more dollars than has ever existed in a single year, the value of a dollar would be immediately reduced to 25%? Holy $h!t:

We're talking about Bitcoins but thanks for the strawman.

Critique accepted. While I presented an extreme economic example, it is to point out the fallacy of your claim that M0 bitcoins are immediately equal to all bitcoin economic value which is not true, even if it is almost true. Well that and to point out a contrast with our immortal beloved.

1348  Economy / Speculation / Re: Long, slow slide on: July 22, 2011, 07:40:32 PM
istar, no, absolutely not so, because BTC end up in someone's wallet who already might have money from selling BTC earlier. and then that money can be reused again and again and again.

Your logic is flawed because new coins are constantly being introduced.  As the money supply increases, new capital must be injected.  Yes, you can reinvest to a certain degree but to sustain or increase price when supply is going up requires additional capital.  There is no way around that unless you believe all new supply is being hoarded, which is never going to be the case.

So CurbsideProphet, strictly by your logic, if let's say, oh I don't know, the Federal Reserve Bank convinced the treasury to print say 4x more dollars than has ever existed in a single year, the value of a dollar would be immediately reduced to 1/4? Holy $h!t:

1349  Economy / Speculation / Re: What do you think will happen to the price when the blocks drop to 25 coins each on: July 22, 2011, 07:22:19 PM
I think you are still off by half a year, bitcoin did not start in January 2009, but later in the year, right?

Strictly speaking, yes: "The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks"

http://blockexplorer.com/block/000000000019d6689c085ae165831e934ff763ae46a2a6c172b3f1b60a8ce26f

Hash: 000000000019d6689c085ae165831e934ff763ae46a2a6c172b3f1b60a8ce26f
Time: 2009-01-03 18:15:05
Difficulty: 1 ("Bits": 1d00ffff)
Transactions: 1
Total BTC: 50
1350  Economy / Speculation / Re: What do you think will happen to the price when the blocks drop to 25 coins each on: July 22, 2011, 07:17:41 PM
The time before the price will probably increase because buyers will expect the price to increase and start buying and miners will hold for the coming price increase, to sell at a higher price.
Once the difficulty does increase, there will be huge sell offs so the price might acctually drop at first instead of rise, this will make even more sell in panic, since they will be taken by the drop when they expected an increase.

Once this settles price will start to increase over the months.

Having predicted this, you will buy even earlier, sell before the peak, buy again above the bear trap and hope that no one will notice the fundamental change underneath. The lesser fool will create artificial/conscious volatility to demonstrate us all wrong and make a killing when we begin to doubt our predictions.

The weather, by the way, next may 7th will be 20 C, cloudy, with a chance of rain somewhere.
1351  Economy / Speculation / Re: What do you think will happen to the price when the blocks drop to 25 coins each on: July 22, 2011, 07:05:42 PM
  Annual Inflation rates (estimated from first day of each year, please correct me)
   52500 x 50.0 =100.0% 2009
   52500 x 50.0 = 50.0% 2010
...

Those numbers are close, but I think you may be off by one year:

YearNew BTCs/yrStart BTCsEnd BTCsBTC Increase
2009262500002625000infinite
2010262500026250005250000100.0%
...
2028164062.520179687.5203437500.8%

Ah yes of course 0 ⇒ X is ∞. Thanks!


1352  Economy / Speculation / Re: $/BTC Time Series Analysis on: July 22, 2011, 06:47:01 PM
Code:
2011-07-22 $13.463 $13.982 | ?--.--- ?--.---
2011-07-23 $13.343 $14.282 | $13.187 $14.096
2011-07-24 $13.360 $14.767 | $13.167 $14.546
2011-07-25 $13.409 $14.980 | $13.198 $14.641
2011-07-26 ?--.--- ?--.--- | $14.035 $15.487

New information set your short term sights lower. What might have set the sites higher or the same? I'm curious how well you can fudge future data. Are your inputs the full colorful range of ticks every second, or hourly or daily ranges? Can you say that IFF we have W range tomorrow, then I see X going forward, but IFF Y tomorrow, then Z is likely over the next few days?
1353  Economy / Speculation / Re: Long, slow slide on: July 22, 2011, 04:11:29 PM
This is what seems to be going on from watching the market. Only a few big players here. I think the average person does not really buy many bitcoins and only mines really, probably holding on to most of the bitcoins thinking they will be worth $100 or more in a month.

Interesting theory. If I'm not mistaken Mt. Gox claimed $7 million transactions in June or roughly 500 000 btc. Volume may have been higher then. And I'm not sure if that's input and withdrawls or internal trades. But none the less, there are over 200 000 btc generated per month. So I think it's entirely possible there is more trading per month than mining.

On the other hand, Mt. Gox's number could include both $ and btc i/o, but I have to assume with stable prices, it's an even rate. Anyone have better numbers?
1354  Economy / Speculation / Re: What do you think will happen to the price when the blocks drop to 25 coins each on: July 22, 2011, 03:59:22 PM
You're joking, right? the system adjusts difficulty so that there is always ~300 coins every hour. If you are seeing 'slower' generation, it's because the number of miners, and thus the difficulty, is higher, and your share of the total hashing power, is lower. Learn2math.

Netrin is correct, the number of BLOCKs is targeted to be constant at about 6/hr. Difficulty only adjusts for blocks per hour. So when the block reward drops to 25BTC, the supply of coin will drop corresponding because it would be 6 blocks /hr x 25. If 90% of people stop mining and difficulty drops to the floor, it will STILL be 6 blocks x 25 BTC per hour at that point.

Yes, but he's saying he's seeing a drop in coin generation NOW, when there are 50 coins per block. My apologies If I wasn't clear.

Right. When we talk about 'averages' and 'constant' we have to be discussing annual or monthly rates, certainly nothing less than two week. The difficulty is adjusted every 2016 blocks, which is expected to be every two weeks. If the block generation rate is say 12 blocks/hour, then the difficulty will be (at most) doubled* in the next two weeks. Miners might decide a doubled difficulty is no longer profitable, so they stop mining, which makes the rate go below expectation, perhaps 3 blocks/hour.

* In actuality, the new rate is not a pure function of previous rate, but rather a moving average, weighted standard deviation, and a special sauce. The difficulty adjustments are less extreme and should smooth out over the long run. Perhaps the algorithm will be tweaked at some planned time well in to the future, though if so, it should be planned soon before we get a lot of new client/miner forks in the ecosystem.
1355  Economy / Speculation / Re: What do you think will happen to the price when the blocks drop to 25 coins each on: July 22, 2011, 03:07:21 PM
You're joking, right? the system adjusts difficulty so that there is always ~300 coins every hour. If you are seeing 'slower' generation, it's because the number of miners, and thus the difficulty, is higher, and your share of the total hashing power, is lower. Learn2math.

I can't tell who's saying what. But as I read the code, the average block generation rate is expected to remain constant for ever, however the amount of coins generated per block is not meant to remain constant but rather halve every four years. Dynamics of difficulty, hashing power, demand, and price are symptoms of the algorithm. Supply is predictable but will be reduced periodically by design.
1356  Economy / Speculation / Re: What do you think will happen to the price when the blocks drop to 25 coins each on: July 22, 2011, 03:00:11 PM
What does 'baring the unknown' mean? Discounting unknown variables, NOTHING can be predicted. I'm not claiming the gist of your question is invalid, but these two sentences are:

Do you think price will hold above $10 between now and then baring the unknown....nearly a meaningless exercise, like predicting the weather next may 7th

We can expect the inflation rate to be immediately halved about 18 months from now. The annual inflation rate is above 25% today (based on my back of the napkin estimates below) and will instantly drop to about 11% (annually) in some hour after Christmas 2012. While this could produce an immediate 'shock' releasing selling pressure, it is predictable and represents a smaller average inflationary deceleration than we've seen over the course of all previous years. All things being equal (and blind), prices should immediately rise.

However, miners do not sell immediately after producing coins and demand (traditionally) has far outstripped supply. Some sophisticated graphics might demonstrate a statistically significant increase in prices months after the event, but frankly, I don't think anyone's eyeballs will notice.

It is worth noting for giggles that 21 December, 2012 is the Gregorian date that the Mayan calendar will enter a new b'ak'tun (394 year cycle).

   Annual Inflation rates (estimated from first day of each year, please correct me)
   52500 x 50.0 =100.0% 2009
   52500 x 50.0 = 50.0% 2010
   52500 x 50.0 = 33.3% 2011
   52500 x 50.0 = 25.0% 2012
   52500 x 25.0 = 11.1% 2013 <--- Dec/January
   52500 x 25.0 = 10.0% 2014
   52500 x 25.0 =  9.1% 2015
   52500 x 25.0 =  8.3% 2016
   52500 x 12.5 =  4.0% 2017
   52500 x 12.5 =  3.8% 2018
   52500 x 12.5 =  3.7% 2019
   52500 x 12.5 =  3.6% 2020
1357  Economy / Speculation / Re: Long, slow slide on: July 22, 2011, 01:06:33 PM

This Long, slow slide is the beach pulling away before the tsunami.


Ah, such a beautiful analogy, thanks.

Bitcoin was hit by a perfect storm (massive media exposure, government inquiry, bubble and pop, virus stealing wallets, and hack at the major exchange), the media witnessed the results and was not kind. Whether for love or hate, bitcoin is now on every economists' radar.  The next hundred-day cycle will be in the lime light and that bubble too will pop. The fresh blood won't recognize this pattern even after the fifth round.
1358  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Democrats & Debt on: July 22, 2011, 12:52:21 PM
ROFLMGDAO!! Grin Grin Grin Grin

I'm not terribly 31337, so what does that mean? Rolling on the floor laughing my Grand Democratic ass off?
1359  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: LinuxCoin A lightweight Debian based OS with everything ready to go. on: July 22, 2011, 12:46:55 PM
Three promising locked down Live Linux projects:

http://www.spi.dod.mil/lipose.htm (US Dept. of Defense)
http://tails.boum.org/index.en.html (Tails)
http://dee.su/liberte (Liberte Linux)
1360  Economy / Speculation / Re: Long, slow slide on: July 22, 2011, 04:18:14 AM
Funnily enough if BTC's price remains relatively static and doesn't budge from $13 to $14 for the next 3 months that would be the best possible thing to happen to bitcoin.  It wouldn't make the traders and speculators happy, but it would remove the extreme volatility that makes bitcoins very unattractive for real commerce.  Long may the mediocre price continue :-)

This old thinking doesn't make sense. Certainly bitcoins, like any other scarcity must plateau, but only after accelerating toward saturation; It's growth rate will initially tend to follow a Sigmoid curve. If we've already plateaued then call me infidel because the bitcoin economy is unsustainable at this level.

It makes sense to me that most growth now is seen in exchanges and utilities. We need liquidity now before we can attract Meze Grills. Merchants need customers and positive speculation brings customers. We are in an early adopter phase. If merchants want to get involved, learn the ropes, be first to market, they'll profit handsomely in the long run. Merchants must also take risk to reap great rewards. Otherwise, we're not ready for them and they are not ready for us.

Bitcoins will continue to have numerous bubbles like a leaf falling in reverse. Swish up, overshoot, slow correction, swish up, overshoot, slow correction, swish up... doubling at minimum each time as we gravitate toward mainstream. If you don't believe this, you haven't quite grasped the potential. There are only two options for bitcoins: Fringe failure or historic disruption.

This Long, slow slide is the beach pulling away before the tsunami.

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