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241  Economy / Economics / Re: Why Bitcoin Is Not Gold on: December 13, 2011, 03:04:22 AM
Bitcoinica offers loans (margin) at interest (5% spread of variable duration) with fractional reserve (1:10 leverage).

Mt. Gox offers reserve notes (redeemable codes) which like fiat to gold may be more convenient than bitcoin. For all we know, there may (soon) be more of these reserve notes in circulation than bitcoin.
242  Economy / Marketplace / Re: The Fiat Free Zone on: December 13, 2011, 02:29:00 AM
If you are serious, whatever it is you are trying to do, Make the menu static, add some content on every click, otherwise your audience will leave. I gave it 15 clicks and found nothing. Best of luck to you.
243  Other / Off-topic / Re: Totally Off-Topic! on: December 12, 2011, 05:08:05 PM
Phinnaeus Gage, no, I don't recall the story of the redneck, jeep and the dog? Care to remind us?

Here's another Darwin award (perhaps not a true story) that Pretcher read to an audience of technical analysts as an attempt to describe the ups and downs of market sentiment. This man was in an accident at work, so he filled out an insurance claim. The insurance company contacted him and asked for more information. This was his response:

"I am writing in response to your request for additional information, for block number 3 of the accident reporting form. I put 'poor planning' as the cause of my accident. You said in your letter that I should explain more fully and I trust the following detail will be sufficient. I am an amateur radio operator and on the day of the accident, I was working alone on the top section of my new 80-foot tower. When I had completed my work, I discovered that I had, over the course of several trips up the tower, brought up about 300 pounds of tools and spare hardware. Rather than carry the now unneeded tools and material down by hand, I decided to lower the items down in a small barrel by using the pulley attached to the gin pole at the top of the tower. Securing the rope at ground level, I went to the top of the tower and loaded the tools and material into the barrel. Then I went back to the ground and untied the rope, holding it tightly to ensure a slow decent of the 300 pounds of tools."

"You will note in block number 11 of the accident reporting form that I weigh only 155 pounds. Due to my surprise of being jerked off the ground so suddenly, I lost my presence of mind and forgot to let go of the rope. Needless to say, I proceeded at a rather rapid rate of speed up the side of the tower. In the vicinity of the 40-foot level, I met the barrel coming down. This explains my fractured skull and broken collarbone. Slowed only slightly, I continued my rapid ascent, not stopping until the fingers of my right hand were two knuckles deep into the pulley. Fortunately, by this time, I had regained my presence of mind and was able to hold onto the rope in spite of my pain. At approximately the same time, however, the barrel of tools hit the ground and the bottom fell out of the barrel."

"Devoid of the weight of the tools, the barrel now weighed approximately 20 pounds. I refer you again to my weight in block number 11. As you might imagine, I began a rapid descent down the side of the tower. In the vicinity of the 40-foot level, I met the barrel coming up. This accounts for the two fractured ankles, and the lacerations of my legs and lower body. The encounter with the barrel slowed me enough to lessen my injuries when I fell onto the pile of tools and, fortunately, only three vertebrae were cracked. I am sorry to report, however, that as I lay there on the tools, in pain, unable to stand and watching the empty barrel 80 feet above me, I again lost my presence of mind. I let go of the rope..."
244  Other / Off-topic / Re: Totally Off-Topic! on: December 12, 2011, 10:35:19 AM
Just because it's off topic does not mean posts should be not be interesting.


At the 1994 annual awards dinner given for Forensic Science, AAFS, President Dr. Don Harper Mills astounded his audience with the legal complications of a bizarre death. Here is the story:

On March 23,1994 the medical examiner viewed the body of Ronald Opus and concluded that he died from a shotgun wound to the head. Mr. Opus had jumped from the top of a ten story building intending to commit suicide. He left a note to that effect, indicating his despondency. As he fell past the ninth floor his life was interrupted by a shotgun blast passing through a window which killed him instantly.

Neither the shooter nor the descender was aware that a safety net had been installed just below at the eighth floor level to protect some building workers and that Ronald Opus would not have been able to complete his suicide the way he had planned.

"Ordinarily," Dr. Mills continued, "a person who sets out to commit suicide and ultimately succeeds, even though the mechanism might not be what he intended, is still defined as committing suicide."

That Mr. Opus was shot on the way to certain death, but probably would not have been successful because of the safety net, caused the medical examiner to feel that he had a homicide on his hands. The room on the ninth floor, whence the shotgun blast emanated, was occupied by an elderly man and his wife. They were arguing vigorously and he was threatening her with a shotgun. The man was so upset that when he pulled the trigger he completely missed his wife and the pellets went through the window, striking Mr. Opus.

When one intends to kill subject A but kills subject B in the attempt, one is guilty of the murder of subject B. When confronted with the murder charge the old man and his wife were both adamant. They both said they thought the shotgun was unloaded. Thed old man said it was his long-standing habit to threaten his wife with the unloaded shotgun. He had no intention to murder her. Therefore the killing of Mr. Opus appeared to be an accident; that is, the gun had been accidentally loaded.

The continuing investigation turned up a witness who saw the old couple's son loading the shotgun about six weeks prior to the fatal accident. It transpired that the old lady had cut off her son's financial support and the son, knowing the propensity of his father to use the shotgun threateningly, loaded the gun with the expectation that his father would shoot his mother. The case now becomes one of murder on the part of the son for the death of Ronald Opus.

Now comes the exquisite twist. Further investigation revealed that the son was, in fact, Ronald Opus. He had become increasingly despondent over the failure of his attempt to engineer his mother's murder. This led him to jump off the ten story building on March 23rd, only to be killed by a shotgun blast passing through the ninth story window. The son had actually murdered himself so the medical examiner closed the case as a suicide.
245  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Technical Analysis & other financial markets ( on: December 12, 2011, 03:32:08 AM
When you can buy a McDonald's Happy Meal with any amount of bitcoin, you'd feed a school for 1 BTC.
246  Economy / Economics / Re: Question for deflation advocates on: December 11, 2011, 06:43:56 PM
If German or Swiss industry imported raw materials just as cheaply as their weaker neighbors but paid higher labor costs they would have had trouble competing against similar industries in the weaker nations. However, it was superior German industry that made them stronger and thus compensated for their price disadvantage. China is a perfect converse. Beijing has artificially devalued the yuan to increase export growth. If China floated the currency, then it would have negative impact on growth - the same deflationary impact Zurich avoided two months ago.

If my understanding is mistaken, I'd appreciate an article refuting what seems to be standard international policy.

None of this however is relevant to bitcoin. If bitcoin is a witch and witches float...
247  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Technical Analysis & other financial markets ( on: December 11, 2011, 06:07:54 PM
Right, and a typical corrective pattern would see another drop to about $2.6 as we saw 4 Dec, before continuing the upward trend.

Did not happen - how do you interpret this?  The bid walls stopped the C down wave and now we are back in the main up trend (and more precisely in the third wave of it)?

"Shit happens"

I have to agree with S3052. Wave movements smaller than Mt. Gox spreads are as informative as quantum noise. If you've got time, there's a long discussion regarding the December counts, otherwise to summarize, I counted five regressive counts 3 December, and expected wave iv to continue bouncing. I was wrong.

My count places bitcoin in a third of the fifth today based on strictly valid waves since $2. It depends on which scales you trust most. At the moment, I don't trust any of them. Smiley

248  Economy / Economics / Re: Elliott Wave Analysis on: December 11, 2011, 05:28:32 PM

Our impulse since $2.6 after pushing past $3.14 looks to have more power left in it. While gold subwaves are impossible to count, the green count is clean. Bitcoin appears to be in the third of a fifth. We should expect another small correction and climb before a major correction back to around $3.

The top magenta price target (C) is based on the fourth wave all the way back from mid October. Similarly $3.8 represents the peak of the subsequent retracement late October.

On higher scales, I have too many counts to bother presenting any of them. I'm just not sure if bitcoin has hit the bottom yet -- if this past month or so represents a single 3-3-5 flat correction or a terribly weak reversal. The black B and C imply the former, but I'm entirely open to alternatives. A major correction reversal within the fourth wave of this month's rally (lower magenta bar $2.6-$3.14) would be a positive signal and could lead to double digit heights. A drop below $2.5 could lead to $1.
249  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Storing a deterministic wallet inside the blockchain on: December 10, 2011, 06:05:32 PM
TL;DR: the blogger erroneously assumes that these have equivalent entropy:


          wrysxzbykjaqeuodglmbcz       ~       carrot ways base split       ~       f#Mo1e)*TjC8

250  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Storing a deterministic wallet inside the blockchain on: December 10, 2011, 05:12:50 PM
That blog post incorrectly assumes the same value space (even distribution though 27 possible characters) rather than considering the words themselves as part of a its own space.

carrot ways base split


These two passphrases have the same entropy if we make the gross assumption that each word is randomly or equally distributed through a 373300 word vocabulary, a vocabulary much greater than a typical native speaker, including alternate grammatical forms.

However, these four words are among the 5000 most frequently used words in English (way:84, base:939, split:2933, carrot:4650) making it weaker than seven random characters, such as:


Of course, if you have added unpredictable misspellings, random punctuation, removed the most common words, added some cyrillic, then sure, you've probably got an excellent passphrase.
251  Economy / Web Wallets / Re: - Bitcoin Block explorer & Currency Statistics on: December 10, 2011, 02:43:38 AM
Well, yes, I've got a wallet cemetary of my own for different reasons. Merging/importing wallets is an obvious missing feature from the C++ client (I'm frustrated by the conservative - can't confuse the idiot's - mentality of the core developers).

But that's not the motivation of my thread here. Basically, I would like to be able to send bitcoins to another individual side channel (not in the block chain). The easiest way to do that today is just to give them a copy of a new wallet. While we're at it, why not encrypt the wallet. In fact, why not encrypt the wallet with the recipients own public bitcoin key (from which one of their addresses was derived).

In theory, the recipient could pass it on to a third party, and he to a fourth, and a fifth, ad infinitum. Of course, each recipient would be taking on enormous counter-counterparty risk, but the possibility allows for plausible deniability. Whenever a bitcoin actually hits the blockchain, even with a guilty 'paper' blockchain trail, one could simply claim 'wasn't me'. I passed that along side channel to a friend to a friend to a ... who knows how many times.
252  Economy / Goods / Re: Greenlandic tupilaks (and other traditional arctic crafts and knives) on: December 10, 2011, 02:28:56 AM
Seriously...I spent like, ten hours a couple months back reading through a bunch of awesome Greenlandic mythology. It's...unique, to say the least. I feel like the movement to record oral histories has lost steam in the past fifty years. There are still a bunch of projects to preserve them, but it seems like they are more focused on the preservation of the language rather than the culture. I just want my stories!

netrin, how can I find more? Are there some better-translated works that you can refer me to?

I saw 'Atanarjuat' many years ago. I thought it was pretty good. Maybe you'd enjoy these films. Donations appreciated (they don't yet accept bitcoin):

Fast Runner Trilogy

I've loaned out a few kilos of books and at least a dozen DVD's and VHS tapes in the past few weeks. Except for a lot of material on climate change, ice cores, and mineral surveys, it's nearly all in Danish or W. Greenlandic, except for one short film I think you might enjoy:

A film by Ivalo Frank

It's just a snapshot of a couple in Ikateq, an American airbase abandoned after WWII. Check out these photos of 300,000 rusty barrels. I thought I'd be able to see them from satellite images only about 10 km west of Tasiilaq (50km from Kulusuk).

Many of the videos are real old, a few clips from Knud Rasmussen must be about 100 years old. I just watched one film "Eskimo Vinter / Sælfolket" (Eskimo Winter / Seal people) with footage from the 60's in Canada and Greenland. Dudes making igloos, and sleds from frozen fish halves wrapped in seal skin for ski blades lashed to a reindeer antler frame. Another series that might be fascinating are documentaries of the Sirius patrol. There are a bunch of brilliant films I saw at the Inuit Circumpolar Conference last year in Nuuk, with some wild arctic mythological themes. Let me know if you're into film and I'll dig some of the best up.

As for written stories, again, nearly everything I've come across is in either Danish or Greenlandic, but many of them must have been translated from Canadian French, English, Inuktuk, maybe Russian (Chukotka).

Birgitte Sonne wrote an anthro thesis in English "The Happy Family - Myths and Ritual and Society on Nunivak" (Copenhagen, 1979)

Knud Rasmussen, who died in 1933 wrote and collected stories from all over the Arctic. He drove a team of dogs up Greenland across Canada to Alaska and was denied entry into Russia. Much of his collection was published in English after he died and matching location to story is unreliable, but the stories are all authentic.

Margaret Lantis, an American anthropologist, collected stories in northern Canada during the late 30's and published material for a half century more.

Perhaps you can find myths published by Hans Himmelheber a contemporary of Lantis in English and German. Paul Ivanoff and Edward Curtis' collections are likely perceived through thick Christian lenses. The linguist L. Hammerich translated a few Inuit stories into English himself.

It's interesting that you notice the steam drop in the past fifty years. My trail seems to end about 1970. There must be more material, I just don't know about it. What got you into the topic?

253  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: It's Official: Trough Of Disillusionment is Upon Us on: December 10, 2011, 12:49:02 AM
I've been reading a lot of kumbaya lately. It's making me ill.

254  Economy / Economics / Re: Question for deflation advocates on: December 10, 2011, 12:32:05 AM
I don't quite understand... let's assume such an unlikely case of some Nationstate declaring bitcoin to be legal tender. How is this going to make deflation a problem?

It's a problem for that nation's exporting industries. Hence the Sissy analogy.

Deflation makes those who hold real wealth wealthier and those in debt (investing) poorer. Before Zurich printed unlimited digital sissies in September, exporting industries had trouble selling to their poorer neighbors - the rest of inflating Europe. In this particular case, Zurich got a free lunch.

Keynes fear of deflation is rational only within an environment of ever expanding debt. Deflation is bad when the entire nation is in debt and the monetary system assumes, encourages, and depends upon debt.

255  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Storing a deterministic wallet inside the blockchain on: December 09, 2011, 11:52:38 PM
49-chars ... sentence ... random ... book ... library

It's good that the book has little relation to you (unlike a pattern derived from my favorite Greenlandic poems), but that the characters are words in a presumably meaningful grammatically correct sentence reduces your entropy significantly.

Let's take this sentence as a simple example.

Each of 'take' (60), 'this' (21), 'as' (17), 'a' (6) are among the sixty most common words in the English language. Their entropy is about as good as a single character. The others might be among the most common thousand words. I would assume this passphrase is much worse than the 16 character passwords they protect. You might need to add another sentence from another book (in another language). But if it's easy to remember and you don't mind typing 49+49 characters, I should think that's reasonably secure.

Sixteen printable ASCII characters has about the same entropy as eight unrelated obscure (among the 5000 most frequent) English words.

reflects theoretical lighting publications curiosity variations whispered congressional


256  Economy / Speculation / Re: Fuji Chart on: December 09, 2011, 09:53:09 PM
I think the sunset rather than the sunrise from Lake Tanuki would have been more accurate. In other words, Photoshop flip horizontally.

ADD: From the other side:

257  Economy / Economics / Re: Question for deflation advocates on: December 09, 2011, 09:42:15 PM
Switzerland as most nations generally only has one currency. The Swiss are expected to use CHF and are not free to buy and sell CHF without penalties (however minor). Swiss industry might choose to switch the books to EUR, but they still must pay taxes in CHF, and their local customers will pay them in CHF.

There is no bitcoin nation. Actors are free to use or not use bitcoins as they please, just as they are free to buy and sell electronics or gold as they please, with all the penalties and rewards they accept by choice not by fiat. There are no bitcoin taxes nor local bitcoin consumers.

When bitcoin is the sole global currency, then we'll address this deflationary advantage further. Until then, it's a non-issue.
258  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: "The Best Bitcoin radio ad yet!" on: December 09, 2011, 05:18:30 PM
What if a Bitcoiner set up a booth or table, if the case may be, at a farmer's market (technology convention) for the sole purpose of only accepting Bitcoin. Picture the juiciest peaches... offering blah blah (blowjobs), donning an almost-too-fancy...

Yes. That might work.
259  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: "The Best Bitcoin radio ad yet!" on: December 09, 2011, 05:02:55 PM

Will Hollywood never tire of dramatic dichotomies?
260  Economy / Web Wallets / Re: - Bitcoin Block explorer & Currency Statistics on: December 09, 2011, 04:39:03 AM
when you create a transaction you redeem specific outputs which target your address so you can't make a transaction just by knowing the address balance.

What specifically are those outputs? Are they like finite registers?

Is it possible to take a minimal wallet and encrypt it with the recipient's public address and send it to the recipient side channel? In theory, couldn't the recipient use the associated private key to decrypt it? (Are elliptic keys reversible in the same way as RSA?) If this were common, wouldn't bitcoin truly be anonymous, every transaction plausibly deniable?

In theory would work, but the problem comes with distribution. To anyone other the recipient the transaction would look like gibberish so how would they know it i the transaction is spam/ddos attack etc. And then how would miners verify the transaction without the private key.

Wait a second, today, I can PGP encrypt my wallet and give it to you. Once you decrypt the wallet, you can do whatever you want with that wallet in the blockchain or side channel again. The only additional cleverness is rather than PGP, I'm just using your public elliptic key (associated with an address in the blockchain) because I'm confident you have the private key. I encrypt an entire wallet with your public key, email it to you, and you decrypt it and do whatever you want with the wallet. The blockchain is no wiser.
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