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361  Economy / Speculation / Re: Rally!! on: November 29, 2011, 07:11:43 PM
Quote
Are you looking forward to some big "I told you so" party?

Yes.

But who would be around to celebrate with you?
362  Other / Off-topic / Re: My Attempt at The Uberman Sleep Schedule on: November 29, 2011, 07:08:42 PM
Maybe he's hibernating.
363  Bitcoin / Electrum / Re: Electrum: the blockchain is the cloud on: November 29, 2011, 07:01:41 PM
Deterministic wallets are much more elegant as far as backup regimes. Personally, I'd prefer to have a two part seed = (random + memorized). But the only real show stopper the Satoshi/C++ client presents me is regarding bandwidth. I'm often in situations where even one MB is prohibitively expensive for bitcoin to be practical. Can Electrum quickly and cheaply discover a wallet balance and send and verify a transaction from cold startup?
364  Economy / Goods / Re: Property in Argentina, shared ownership on: November 29, 2011, 06:52:37 PM
I think he's just feeling it out. This is a fairly common proposal (although usually among irl friends/family). He may never have stepped foot in Argentina, but that doesn't make this any less legit.
365  Economy / Speculation / Re: Rally!! on: November 29, 2011, 06:49:45 PM
Bitcoin probably will have completely run its course by 2013. There's absolutely no reason to believe this is a reversal.

Hi Proudhon, I've seen the question asked before, but I don't recall your reply. Why do you hang out on these threads? Are you short and hoping to reinforce your predictions? Do I understand correctly that you believe bitcoin will completely die in the near future? Are you trying to save those who will listen (though someone always has to hold the bag)? Are you looking forward to some big "I told you so" party? I'm sincerely curious what motivates you.
366  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoinica New Version Launched Today! on: November 29, 2011, 06:40:59 PM
Zhou, the site looks great. The Active Orders are a huge improvement. However, the refreshing reorders by last Update. So, if I sort by Price, then seconds later, it's scrambled again. My sort preference should not be reset by each AJAX refresh. Furthermore, if I do sort by Update, the ordering tends to look random because (I presume) the order types are threaded and batched asynchronously; and because 'static' orders (all but trailing stops) have a new update date, even if their state hasn't actually changed. Cheers!
367  Economy / Marketplace / Re: Bitcoinica - Advanced Bitcoin Trading Platform on: November 29, 2011, 05:52:25 PM
What's quick pick? Is that just quick UI input or does it execute?
368  Other / Off-topic / Re: My Attempt at The Uberman Sleep Schedule on: November 29, 2011, 05:38:20 PM
(Greenland's an incredibly meditative place)

What's the deal with this? And then you somehow ended up in Greenland of all places? That shit sounds way more interesting than Atlas' daily failure (but in a good way).

Atlas is only 17. If he can focus his mania, doesn't get locked up in a hospital, drops a tab of acid, then I expect he'll lead a life of beauty.

Appamāda!
369  Economy / Speculation / Re: How an EURO melt down will affect bitcoins? on: November 29, 2011, 03:01:52 PM
Are you aware that housing prices are included in core inflation statistics but that food and energy are not? I don't know where those headline data come from, but they conflict with data I trust:
I think if you take your red line and do a 36 month moving average, you get the graph I posted.

Shadow Government Stats looks like a nifty site, I'll read more when I have some time.

I was being facetious. I know exactly where your data comes from. The Fed has been changing its statistical methods for the past thirty years. It's unreliable historical data.


The United States' budget has been in deficit 37.5% over revenue each year, to the tune of $1.56 trillion (2011), with debt payments at $0.25 trillion -- 16% of the current deficit will pay off previous deficits. The US public debt has doubled in five years.

Which do you think is more likely: that the United States will increase taxes or cut spending 40%, reduce the budget and pay off its debt; or reduce taxes, increase spending, increase the debt burden, and monetize payments?
I think you're overthinking how people invest. I've watched people making $200k/yr ask their stockbroker to buy stocks based on the brand name on their work computer (no kidding!).  In the current climate, they lose a bit in stocks and see the wild volatility, they ask their financial adviser "what, traditionally, has been the safest investment?", their adviser says "t-bills", and that's what they buy.  End of story.

It doesn't matter one bit on longer scales into what coworker Bob invests. MF Global didn't go bankrupt for lack of customers!

You can not avoid the budget numbers I've posted. You should ignore the song and dance performed by politicians on both side of the Atlantic. At most you are suggesting that Bob Coworker is going to prolong an already popped bubble. Save your breath and exhale.


And this might explain why inflation is much lower than one might expect with your theories based on fundamentals.

I referred primarily to monetary inflation. But even Keynes would agree, price inflation will follow with delay (salaries, layoffs take time (sticky vs quantity theory)). The 1970's stagflation blew gaping holes in his and derived theories (Hicks, Phillips). Its fascinating that since Lehmann, Keynes is popular again. That's just wishful thinking on a global scale.

Keynes and Monetarists suggest increased liquidity (print M0 and lend M1 - 0% interest rates, QE) to smooth out recession. The problem is not that they were wrong (who am I to argue with Keynes or Friedman?), it's that increased liquidity was also the policy for the last 20 years to prolong the economic (dot com, housing, bond) bubble. It's analogous to reserving some food for a rainy day: if you raid the pantry during good times, you'll starve during the bad.
370  Economy / Speculation / Re: How an EURO melt down will affect bitcoins? on: November 29, 2011, 05:42:19 AM
Are you aware that housing prices are included in core inflation statistics but that food and energy are not? I don't know where those headline data come from, but they conflict with data I trust:



The United States tripled its M0 supply as higher aggregates collapsed since late 2008. Most of that cash is parked at the Federal Reserve and will trickle out into the economy over the decade.

When you intend to buy and hold sovereign debt (US treasury bonds) you need to calculate the chance that the country will refuse to honor their debt or will pay you back in devalued currency IN THE FUTURE. Monetizing debt is a sure way to devalue a currency.

The United States' budget has been in deficit 37.5% over revenue each year, to the tune of $1.56 trillion (2011), with debt payments at $0.25 trillion -- 16% of the current deficit will pay off previous deficits. The US public debt has doubled in five years.

Which do you think is more likely: that the United States will increase taxes or cut spending 40%, reduce the budget and pay off its debt; or reduce taxes, increase spending, increase the debt burden, and monetize payments?
371  Economy / Speculation / Re: How an EURO melt down will affect bitcoins? on: November 29, 2011, 01:51:16 AM
Eh, the downgrade was more a reflection of the pathetic ratings companies, the "Wall Street equivalent of the LA Clippers" as Nate Silver so aptly put it.  The US can and will pay, and everyone knows it.  The US economy is just so staggeringly huge - Walmart's revenue last year was about the same as the GDP of Sweden - the even if the political system is broken, they can still pay back debt eventually.

A credit rating is not determined by the size of an economy, but upon default risk and inflationary risk. At 100% debt to GDP, deficits of 37.5% of the annual budget, more monetization scheduled, an aging population, engaged in multiple wars, the United States certainly represents an inflationary risk. You must be getting your opinion spoon fed directly from the Treasury Dept. AA+ was grossly generous.


I see the spike in CHF-EUR exchange rate in August (6 September), but how did they pull the plug?

The same way all nations are devaluing their currencies: printing more paper.

http://www.snb.ch/en/mmr/reference/pre_20110906/source/pre_20110906.en.pdf


Bitcoin just isn't a large enough of an economy to absorb even a small portion of the needs of Europe at this time...

That is precisely why EUR/BTC will go up!
372  Economy / Speculation / Re: How an EURO melt down will affect bitcoins? on: November 28, 2011, 04:40:50 PM
Humans are creatures of habit. With soveriegn debt crisis, what do people do? Buy more but different sovereign debt. It was amazing that with the US credit downgrade, US treasury yields appreciated. The logic may be that huge institutions with rating averages minimums were required to replace lower rated bonds and had no choice but to buy from the most liquid market - US Treasuries.

While EUR and USD are both looking bad, whichever one tumbles first, the other will climb. Mysteriously, people haven't yet lost faith in paper, they just shift from one paper to the other. I believe that bitcoin will behave much like CHF before Zurich pulled the plug. Representing only a tiny fraction of the European economy, what was only a trickle from EUR was a flood toward CHF. It would only take a few drops from the EUR ocean to make a tsunami in the BTC pond.
373  Other / Off-topic / Re: Totally Off-Topic! on: November 28, 2011, 05:25:58 AM
(D) None of the above
374  Economy / Economics / Re: Elliott Wave Educational Video Series on: November 28, 2011, 05:23:19 AM
Did you write this? It's an absolutely beautiful collection: http://www.vortexmath.com/a-fibonacci-phyllotaxis-prime-number-sieve


Prime numbers occur in Nature every time a periodic system must minimize resonance effects. We experience these resonance effects as aesthetic the arising complexity of combinations as beauty.

We experience the resonance as beautiful in a minimal resonant system? Some perfect harmony between absolute order and total entropy, maybe?


There is a way to calculate the aesthetics of a particular ratio, this was used by Euler to describe the aesthetics of musical intervals as a generalization.

Do you have a reference to this specifically? What does this Gradus Function tell us? Are these correct?

6 --> (2+1) x (3+1) = 12
7 --> (7+1) = 8
8 --> (2+3) = 5
375  Economy / Economics / Re: Elliott Wave Educational Video Series on: November 28, 2011, 03:24:33 AM
Please, get started...
376  Other / Off-topic / Re: My Attempt at The Uberman Sleep Schedule on: November 28, 2011, 01:16:18 AM
I don't recommend it recreationally, but if you have the (mis)fortune to be treated with Lariam (Mefloquine), you'll likely have lucid dreams ever single night of its month half-life, as well as open-eye 'lucid' hallucinations during the day... among other less pleasurable complications.
377  Economy / Marketplace / Re: Texas Laser Systems Accepting BitCoins on: November 28, 2011, 12:38:01 AM
Nice site. Best of luck to you. Are you shipping up to Santa in Greenland?
378  Economy / Economics / Re: Elliott Wave Educational Video Series on: November 28, 2011, 12:16:42 AM
Not good enough, since it is possible to approximate any signal with any periodic oscillation. Sine Waves, sawtooth, triangle, square waves, wavelets, curvelets, etc..

Sine waves are never (not necessarily and most often not) fractal patterns. A sine wave does not look like the same sine wave on all scales (for example all octaves simultaneously below, through, and above the range of hearing). A perfect sine wave is repeating by definition, but not self-similar on any scale but one.


Now we are talking, yes if you consider the Fibonacci Series 3, 5 are a unique pair which can be enumerated as this impulse wave movement.

There's some fun Fibonacci math: 3 corrective waves + 5 impulsive waves = 8 waves. The three corrective waves consist of 5+3+5 = 13 subwaves. The five impulsive waves consist of 5+3+5+3+5 = 21 subwaves. Together that's 34 subwaves. At a higher order, five + three + five = 21 + 13 + 21 = 55 corrective sub-subwaves preceded by five + three + five + three + five = 89 impulsive sub-subwaves for a grand total of 144 sub-subwaves. You can continue this math-erbation for higher scales and extend the sequence below:

0 , 1 , 1 , 2 , 3 , 5 , 8 , 13 , 21 , 34 , 55 , 89 , 144 , 233 , 377 , 610 , 987 , 1597 , 2584 , 4181 , 6765 , 10946 , 17711 , 28657 , 46368...

But we should not be too surprised by the results of the application of the Fibonacci definition. Fibonacci as it relates to Elliott, as I understand Pretcher, is the ratio between any two elements of the sequence, not the sequence itself. In other words, the Golden ratio: (a+b)/a = a/b = 1:.61803...

2 / 3 = .66667...
21 / 34 = .61765...
233 / 377 = .61803...
2584 / 4181 = .61803...
28657 / 46368 = .61803...

If an impulsive wave is 89 sub-subwaves, should we expect a 55 sub-subwave correction to retrace 1-.618 = 38.2% ? Well sure, except when it's 61.8% or 50% or 14.6% or 23.6% or 12.3456789% or... And that's the problem I have with Fib and prices. Wave price movements, in my experience, have only slightly better than no relationship to the golden ratio.

BUT the golden ratio is an aesthetic. When I draw counts I place future counts where they 'look good' within various price suggestions and Elliott rules. 1/3, 2/3, and 3/2, tend to be more aesthetically pleasing than 1/2, and 2. I don't know why, but the market appreciates beauty.
379  Economy / Economics / Re: Elliott Wave Educational Video Series on: November 27, 2011, 11:18:25 PM
A failed fifth wave often resembles a fourth wave triangle. A failed fourth wave (1,2,3,4) resembles a corrective reversal (a,b,c,1). A combined corrective zig-zag resembles an impulsive wave somewhat. There are many such seemingly ambiguous situations, however the previous waves indicate the present wave, which all fit within a model of a higher scale.

I've had incredible confidence regarding the correction during the last two weeks of October, but have been puzzled by the sideways correction early November, which is making it difficult to confidently count the present situation. This muddy count keeps me on the lookout for a reversal, impulsive failures, and triangles. I am very confident bitcoin is at or approaching the bottom as there are conflicting trends and tension on all scales.
380  Economy / Economics / Re: Elliott Wave Educational Video Series on: November 27, 2011, 10:58:13 PM
I really don't know why impulses are five waves rather than say seven waves. However the question is a bit backwards (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropic_principle). As with any fractal, if the pattern were not self-similar on all scales, there would be no pattern at all.

S3052, does Pretcher argue convincingly for the Fibonacci series? I find 2/3 and 3/2 reasonable approximates, but unreliable. Corrections to the previous fourth wave however has been incredibly predictive.
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