It's very simple actually. They want the banks to remain solvent. They want those who made poor investment decisions to be compensated. They want government to create economic stimulus. They want the economy to recover. They want lower consumer prices and interest rates to remain low. They want higher wages, more benefits, and more jobs. They want the federal budget balanced and the debt paid off. And they want reduced taxes. Is that so much to ask?

You can easily do RSA and most any other algorithm in Javascript, but you can't do rock solid security in javascript, so I wouldn't recommend trying to call it pgp. pbp might be a better name.

We talk price first and then justify it later. The price determines our expectations. We are not reacting to news, such as the encrypted wallet, new bitcoin services, court cases in France. We are only slaves of the price, slaves of each other. Herdthink.

Technomage is correct, that when we are too exhausted to care about the price, then it will slowly climb. This is what he says, but this is not what has happened. We HOPE the price will rise because we FEEL it has gone too low. I'm waiting for APATHY and DISGUST.

Not when Nagle says "I told you so" but when Gavin says "maybe Nagle was right".

Wave I began at zero so our II crash carries that same fear. Wave III, even if it crosses gold parity and IV drops to silver, will not likely produce the same panic. Major wave "II", should it exist after this II then III, IV, V are over in say 2016, will appear to be stable, even if it slowly declines, much like the reserve currencies or fortune 500.


Technomage, after the flaming mortal decent of II, upon the Gates of the third wave of HELLL, it reads:

Through me you pass into the city of woe:
Through me you pass into eternal pain:
Through me among the people lost for aye.

Justice the founder of my fabric mov'd:
To rear me was the task of power divine,
Supremest wisdom, and primeval love.

Before me things create were none, save things
Eternal, and eternal I endure.
All hope abandon ye who enter here.

Such characters in colour dim I mark'd
Over a portal's lofty arch inscrib'd:
Whereat I thus: Master, these words import.

I ask half of the people I chat with over PM if they have PGP. Mostly out of curiosity. It's sad that the majority of self-claimed crypto-currency enthusiasts are not prepared to protect their own communication.

Wobber, using Elliott since 19 October, you should now be able to answer this yourself. IFF $2.05 ended the June correction II.c.5, then we are in the first wave of major (monthly/yearly) wave III. Let's call it III.i.4. Then 4 can not drop less than $3.3 and I would expect 5 to blow way up above the previous major correction 7-13 October, well into the $5's. Many hope that's true. I'm afraid the optimism is unfounded.

+1 I would donate to Wikipedia MUCH MORE OFTEN if they accepted bitcoin. I just might drop a bitcent on every article I read!

https://wikimediafoundation.org/wiki/Contact_us

I couldn't make sense of the Wiki article and Mathematica's graphs use a linear y-axis. Me thunk it clearly nonsense until I read this regarding practical applications:

"The cepstrum can be seen as information about rate of change in the different spectrum bands. It was originally invented for characterizing the seismic echoes resulting from bitcoin trading and bomb explosions."

You fooled too many, unless the whole thread was just playing along.

Chodpaba, well I think it's very interesting that, via very different methods, we're still looking at the exact same confirmation/targets. All rallies correct. I suppose the difference is what happens after $4. I expect November will see $2's again.

Hey Chodpaba, BTCurious is just taking a piss on this thread. You answered another of his questions elsewhere. Clearly we can't both be right.

If I were rock solid confident, I wouldn't be posting my charts. The blue (Hourly) scale is garbage data. I invite you to find an Elliott thread with lower noise:substance ratio.

I'm still long this week, but my money's on $0.6-1.1. Certainly less than $2.

The market's been ticking like clockwork since early October. People dump on a rally because they think prices are jumping up like horny chihuahuas.

After we finish this two week C wave up, maybe I'll experiment with multiple short trailing stops and post my results here.

I don't have a bot and Bitcoinica stops let me sleep once in a while.

Speeder, as for 'melt away' I'm not sure that's true. At least not the way I previously thought it worked. The trailing stop difference does not get ever smaller and smaller. But whenever the market price drops the same as your trailing difference from ANY high, your stop will get triggered.

In my case, I bought at around $2.6 with a trailing stop .15 or .2 lower and it got triggered very soon there after. I bought again at $2.8 with a trailing stop .3 lower and it has not been triggered even after the bounce this morning (Mt Gox $3.25 - $2.9). I don't know what the bitcoinica prices were, but I'm content with this action. My trailing stop is now at $2.87.

Zhoutong, if it's not too much trouble, do you think you could estimate the ideal (minimal difference) trailing stop if I had purchased at $2.6 on 25 October and hoped not to have been triggered in the last four days. Do you think a .25 difference would have held my position ($2.6 buy, $2.35 trailing stop)?

I think we would all benefit from a picture of example volatile market and the trailing stops that would hold. Either that or a Bitcoinica chart with a y-axis. I'm using Mt. Gox charts and have no idea if Bitcoinica is generally more or less volatile.

Good show BTCurious. I'm sadden tho smiling at your positive reception. Keep up the good work.

"first they ignore you, then they laugh about you, then they fight you, then you win" recalls the Victor,



but many more forgotten Losers failed at each comma,

That's interesting. So, -50 is the AMOUNT, "I want 50 fewer bitcoins"? Is that precisely true for stops as well "I want 50 fewer bitcoin if the price drops below the price set"?

Zhoutong, could you explain the trailing stop is detail (I appreciated the unambiguous code example earlier). I expected they would approach the market price too quickly, but they actually performed well, though I still lost money on an otherwise good trade. I understand that a sell stop will keep matching the previous difference whenever the price goes up, but the sell stop will never go down again. Are the trailing stops recalculated after every trade, every new gain, or periodically (every minute maybe) or ...? Does the difference between the market price and the trailing stop necessarily decrease over time or are their instances when a trailing stop will 'stick' while the market price goes up? Reworded, does a trailing sell stop only increase when the market price goes higher than the original difference (order - stop) or does the stop increase with every market price gain?

I'm afraid the blind may be leading the blind or the doubter leading the faithful. I'm not even convinced I believe Elliott works (rather than any method which encourages looking at multiple scales, patience, and planning for negative confirmations). I am only posting my charts because I want to learn myself and welcome critique.

I appreciate your comments and questions. Just be aware that I do not consider myself to be experienced enough to give definitive answers; I can only explain my own thinking. I still have no clue what is happening during most corrections (such as pink '4' this past week, Monday's wave 'b' in particular) until they are long over.

I no longer share your 'hope' for bitcoin. I am convinced crypto-currency will prevail. Bitcoin prices are volatile. That is a fact and won't change. I love bitcoin technology and I enjoy trading this volatile asset. They are two entirely separate entities which share few properties. I also believe bitcoin will rally and pop many more times. I believe bitcoin will hit triple digits in 2012. I don't hope that, I expect it, while preparing for zero.


Great question. I appreciate symmetry and have a tendency to create symmetry. But I believe that is wrong according to Elliott (who uses different symmetries, Fibonacci, etc). I understand that in a five wave impulse, an orderly correction (2) will often be followed by a chaotic correction (4) and vise versa. I think you'll see that is true in II (November) and IV (March). I now favor an earlier pink '2' ending 12 September, but wanted to make my graph consistent with the graph I created at that time (and posted last week).

Also, I am tempted to believe that pink '4' can not reach $4 because it would have to rise well above the clean monthly resistance. Is that unorthodox thinking?


We just bounced over $2.9 hit on 18 October. If my count is thus far correct, and we sustain prices over $3, then I think we are in a five wave impulse from the bottom 25 October to which $4 is a real possibility. This could be interesting: