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881  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Devastation on: June 21, 2017, 07:34:14 PM
Earlier in this thread there was a discussion on global warming. I have found this topic to be a particularly difficult one to follow due to its political nature and the large amount of disinformation surrounding it.

Here is a nice little 12 minute video outlining the skeptics case.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=0gDErDwXqhc

By Dr. David M.W. Evans

"We check the main predictions of the climate models against the best and latest data. Fortunately the climate models got all their major predictions wrong. Why? Every serious skeptical scientist has been consistently saying essentially the same thing for over 20 years, yet most people have never heard the message. Here it is, put simply enough for any lay reader willing to pay attention..."

Dr. David M.W. Evans consulted full time for the Australian Greenhouse Office (now the Department of Climate Change) from 1999 to 2005, and part time 2008 to 2010, modeling Australia's carbon in plants, debris, mulch, soils, and forestry and agricultural products. Evans is a mathematician and engineer, with six university degrees including a PhD from Stanford University in electrical engineering. The area of human endeavor with the most experience and sophistication in dealing with feedbacks and analyzing complex systems is electrical engineering, and the most crucial and disputed aspects of understanding the climate system are the feedbacks. The evidence supporting the idea that CO2 emissions were the main cause of global warming reversed itself from 1998 to 2006, causing Evans to move from being a warmist to a skeptic.
882  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The Barry Silbert segwit2x agreement with >80% miner support. on: June 21, 2017, 05:41:42 PM
...
If you want Core to be in control, because you think Core can be the best control, then fine; however, don't dress it up in a pretty pink tutu and blow smoke up my ass about it.  Kiss

I want Core to be in authority because at this juncture they are the least bad option. They will exercise a higher level of restraint (lower overall control) then other contenders for authority while preventing chaos from destroying the system (I hope).

I believe I referred to them as a dirty shirt in the laundry basket immediately upthread so I can hardly be accused of dressing them up in a pretty pink tutu. That said the Chinese miner shirt looks much dirtier with something of a foul smell so for now I will stick with Core.

If the Core shirt gets a lot uglier with time aka corrupt or if some magically clean shirt comes along like transparent and fair AI I would jump ship but neither of these appear likely in the immediate future.

The goal is to maintain self-organization while minimizing control. Thus I am here in this thread for the sole purpose of encouraging Core to use their control to grant concessions where possible to the miners because ultimately this both secures Core's authority while minimizing it which is good for bitcoin.
883  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The Barry Silbert segwit2x agreement with >80% miner support. on: June 21, 2017, 04:11:22 PM
please be honest in your claims and not use the false guise of "decentralization" as your reason for centralization.  Undecided

Some level of top-down control is necessary to maintain self-organization in complex systems. This is a uniform truth that holds for all systems. The goal is to minimize the control while simultaneously preventing chaos from destroying the system.

If you are interested in a deeper analysis of this point I looked at the mathematics in the context of life and mutation rate here:

The Math of Optimal Fitness
884  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The Barry Silbert segwit agreement with >80% miner agreement. on: June 21, 2017, 03:28:57 PM
...Most of us do not want the Chinese miners to take over the bitcoin code and trust Core to manage upgrades far more then we trust other groups that do not prioritize decentralization...
The amount of irony in that sentence is enough to choke a woolly mammoth.  Undecided

Reality is reality.

Decentralization is an ideal something we approximate rather than achieve.
Specialized technical challenges necessitates leadership.

Making sure the power of those leaders is limited and used to sustain rather then undermine decentralization is the job of all community members.

Right now Core is full of early adopters who have a large position in bitcoin. This gives them an incentive for bitcoin to succeed and to refrain from undermining what decentralization we do have. They also have a mostly open and transparent development process and a large loosely bound group of technically skilled and active contributors. Overall this makes them the cleanest dirty shirt in the laundry basket.

That said it is good to remind Core on occasion that they are the stewards not the controllers of bitcoin. It is also good  to keep the miners happy so they feel their economic concerns are addressed. Thus I would like to see Core adopt and release a 2Mb blocksize increase (on Core code) after SegWit is active as this appears to me to be the healthiest way forward. Whether that will happen or not remains to be seen.
885  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 21, 2017, 04:54:08 AM

I continue to wonder why there are so many folks who continue to assert that 2mb is needed and a kind of must and a kind of emergency, without even verifying how segwit plays out.  Causes me to tentatively conclude that there is likely some hidden agenda in regards to such a desire to implement something that really seems to be unnecessary - and whether the implementation of unnecessary is for governance reasons or just some kind of big business reasons seems to escape me.

Most of us are simple bitcoin holders and just want the issue to be resolved.

Most of us do not want the Chinese miners to take over the bitcoin code and trust Core to manage upgrades far more then we trust other groups that do not prioritize decentralization.

For those of us who have educated ourselves on the issue it is clear that a 2MB hardfork is not needed as some kind of emergency solution but it is equally clear that it is needed to maintain overall good will in the community especially the mining community.

Since everyone seems to agree that a blocksize increase will eventually be required as bitcoin grows and most people including core developers feel that the dangers of a single one time increase are manageable I am of the strong opinion that a 2MB hardfork rolled out and deployed by Core using their usual slow and complete vetting process would be far less damaging than telling the miners to go take a hike after SegWit is activated.
886  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The Barry Silbert segwit agreement with >80% miner agreement. on: June 21, 2017, 04:48:28 AM

I continue to wonder why there are so many folks who continue to assert that 2mb is needed and a kind of must and a kind of emergency, without even verifying how segwit plays out.  Causes me to tentatively conclude that there is likely some hidden agenda in regards to such a desire to implement something that really seems to be unnecessary - and whether the implementation of unnecessary is for governance reasons or just some kind of big business reasons seems to escape me.

Most of us are simple bitcoin holders and just want the issue to be resolved.

Most of us do not want the Chinese miners to take over the bitcoin code and trust Core to manage upgrades far more then we trust other groups that do not prioritize decentralization.

For those of us who have educated ourselves on the issue it is clear that a 2MB hardfork is not needed as some kind of emergency solution but it is equally clear that it is needed to maintain overall good will in the community especially the mining community.

Since everyone seems to agree that a blocksize increase will eventually be required as bitcoin grows and most people including core developers feel that the dangers of a single one time increase are manageable I am of the strong opinion that a 2MB hardfork rolled out and deployed by Core using their usual slow and complete vetting process would be far less damaging than telling the miners to go take a hike after SegWit is activated.
887  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 21, 2017, 04:25:48 AM

You can't build a consensus on falsehood. Once commitments are made they should be honored.

Do you understand the concept of a compound question?

Do you understand the concept of contingencies?

You keep trying to suggest that the situation is cut and dry, and it is not.  There is both a compound subject matter and there are contingencies that are connected with the second part of the implementation that have not been worked out and are subject to mustering support for the testing and for the outcome of the testing leading to the implementation of the second part.


The miners who are signalling NYA should abide by their agreement to support both SegWit and a later unspecified 2MB hard fork. This is essentially a contract if an unenforceable one and following through with ones agreements is necessary to achieve anything in a consensus system.

That said Core had not agreed to 2MB hard fork so they are not bound to this like the NYA signalling folks are.
Thus there will still be a need for further negotiations.

Core will insist on their being the source of code updates and their typical 6 month testing period for new code. The miners will want a fork with some especially Bitmain wanting to use non-Core code and faster roll out time.

The two sides will be so close at this point that fracturing the network as opposed to coming to some kind of agreement would be silly.
888  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The Barry Silbert segwit agreement with >80% miner agreement. on: June 21, 2017, 03:45:07 AM
As I've said before, most of core has said they'd support a block size increase but at a less frantic pace. I suspect the miners will maintain their pressure of their own hard fork claiming that core will backpedal on their agreement if they don't (as you said they claimed about the HK agreement - none of which actually happened.)

Hopefully the sides will be close enough at that point for Core and the NYA signalling miners to come to an arrangement perhaps agreeing to 2MB in exchange for pushing back the change two months or something.

889  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 21, 2017, 03:23:55 AM


so we already got a lot of folks out there screaming that segwit2x is a kind of package, when the first part of segwit seems to be agreed upon; however, the second part of the deal (the 2mb aspect) seems to have contingencies.  So, if it ends up that the second part does not go through, then then a large number of folks will be whining that Core broke the agreement, blah blah blah.. and the 2mb aspect was supposed to be "guaranteed", just like (and maybe even worse) they were mischaracterizing and whining about the Hong Kong agreement. 

Where am I going wrong in my thinking, here?

It's a package deal SegWit first followed by 2MB later. Those signalling are agreeing to activate SegWit and also support a later hard fork to increase the block size.

Now it is true that major players could lie and later retract their support for 2MB sort of a "ha ha I got mine" approach to negotiation but this would be utterly destructive to trust and kill any chance for future upgrades to the protocol for the foreseeable future.

You can't build a consensus on falsehood. Once commitments are made they should be honored. Otherwise it is very bad news for all of us as the consensus system will become nonfunctional.
890  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The Barry Silbert segwit agreement with >80% miner agreement. on: June 21, 2017, 03:07:58 AM


so we already got a lot of folks out there screaming that segwit2x is a kind of package, when the first part of segwit seems to be agreed upon; however, the second part of the deal (the 2mb aspect) seems to have contingencies.  So, if it ends up that the second part does not go through, then then a large number of folks will be whining that Core broke the agreement, blah blah blah.. and the 2mb aspect was supposed to be "guaranteed", just like (and maybe even worse) they were mischaracterizing and whining about the Hong Kong agreement. 

Where am I going wrong in my thinking, here?

It's a package deal SegWit first followed by 2MB later. Those signalling are agreeing to activate SegWit and also support a later hard fork to increase the block size.

Now it is true that major players could lie and later retract their support for 2MB sort of a "ha ha I got mine" approach to negotiation but this would be utterly destructive to trust and kill any chance for future upgrades to the protocol for the foreseeable future.

You can't build a consensus on falsehood. Once commitments are made they should be honored. Otherwise it is very bad news for all of us as the consensus system will become nonfunctional.
891  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Health and Religion on: June 21, 2017, 02:46:52 AM

Why do we (you and I) live in this spiritual desert?
http://charltonteaching.blogspot.com/2017/06/why-do-we-you-and-i-live-in-this.html?m=1
Quote from: Bruce Charlton
Since nothing is random or uncaused, and God is our loving Father; and since this modern world is a spiritual desert - then why are we here-and-now?

Why were we placed here, why - perhaps - did we choose to be placed here and at this most unspiritual and antireligious of times?

What possible spiritual benefit can a modern life bring us?

The answer, in a nutshell is: Living here and now compels us to reach inward to our true, divine self; because other (past) sources of Christian guidance are (for nearly all of the people in the world) either absent or corrupted.

We must become active agents, we must become spiritually - Christianly - autonomous to a degree not seen before.

*

Our faith tells us that God would not allow any of his beloved children to be placed in this era and situation unless there was a very good reason: something of which we, personally, have great need.

Yet this situation is one in which the Christian religion is absent (from many parts of the world), or essentially abandoned and corrupted (in the developed nations). All the usual sources of guidance are tainted - tradition, scripture, hierarchical authority, philosophy... all are much more likely to do us harm than good if we go to what is most available and accept it uncritically.

We can get nowhere without discernment. 

Therefore spiritual passivity is - for us, here and now - ruled-out.

When the human aspects are all tainted or unobvious, then a policy of subordination and obedience are much more likely to do us harm than good; because we would probably be serving the Enemy rather than God.

*

In modernity we are brought to a state of utter isolation of our selves, and a loss of confidence in the reality of the world and of that self which is all we can experience. And our self and the world is dead, inert, passive and perceived as unliving - an accident, merely an illusion or delusion of our own limitations. We cannot perceive God, Jesus, angels; and even other people are merely shadowy entities justified only be the comfort or pleasures they provide.

We have so decisively lost the ability to know the external environment, that we regard it as a product of our minds; yet our minds are (in mainstream understanding) merely temporary, contingent, arbitrary collections of brain circuits - unreliable, prone to malfunction and doomed to extinction.

This is the state of nihilism when nothing is really-real and despair is inevitable and ineradicable.

*

So why are we here and now?

When there is no reliable external guidance, we must look within: and must means must, because there is no alternative.

Our Loving Father, the Creator would not have placed us here unless we had the resources to attain salvation and to make steps towards theosis (becoming more divine).

Since these resources are not to be found outside us, then everything we need must be found within -  and by invisible, spiritual means of communication.

Specificially, what we need to begin is found within, and everything else follows as consequnces.

*

We must look within to find and feel our internal spiritual compass - that which is divine and eternal within each of us; that in us which is a child of God (still merely a child, but certainly that!).

Once we have located that inner reality; then - and only then - we can look outside; look (that is) not by our senses but directly to the world of spirit: open our real selves to to direct knowing and personal revelation from God, and the personal friendship of Jesus Christ.

*

That is why you and I are here and now; because what we personally most need, is to learn to find God within us.

Modernity is, indeed, a harsh spiritual lesson - but presumably that was the only kind of lesson that you and I were capable of learning.

(Earlier people in earlier generations, or people in different parts of the world, have other things that they need to learn . I am here talking about a reason why living in The West, the developed nations - is the best realistically-possible thing for some people; people such as you and me.) 

And of course this is a lesson each and every one of us absolutely needs to learn if we are ever to develop from the passive state of being immature, externally-driven, dependent-children of God into what he hope for us to become: active, agent, autonomous grown-up 'friends' of God (and ultimately perhaps spiritual parents in our own right); at a level where we can fully participate - Son or Daughter of God - in the great and endless divine work of love and creation.
892  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Evolution is a hoax on: June 20, 2017, 11:58:54 PM
Whence, Whither, Who?
http://www.scifiwright.com/2017/06/whence-whither-who/#more-18616
Quote from: John C. Wright

A reader asks: I wish someone could explain to me the antipathy towards Evolution that is so common in religious circles, mostly among Evangelicals, but also some Catholics.
There are only three questions that no man escapes answering. For most people, the answer is shown rather than spoken, demonstrated in the way he lives his life. For most people, the answer is implicit rather than expressed.

The questions are whence, whither, and who?
From where do you come? Where are you going? Who are you?
I submit that the antipathy is not directed at the Darwinian model as it applies to biology. It is directed at the Secular Progressivism cult which claims (falsely) that Darwinism provides answers to these questions.

No one is livid over the idea that raccoons and bears may have had a common ancestors, or that the remote ancestors of whales may have been land mammals. The theory may be true or false as applied to biology, and there are philosophical difficulties with a theory that cannot be falsified, but that is not what causes the antipathy.
Nor is the antipathy necessary. The account of the origin of Man in Genesis disagrees with Darwin if and only if you makes assumptions not found in the wording either of Genesis nor in Darwin’s writings.

Genesis say man comes from dust by the will of the Creator. Darwin says man come from apes, who come from simper organisms, who come from simpler yet. Darwin says nothing about how life arose in the first place.
So if man arose from apes who arose from simpler organisms, who arose from dust by the will of the Creator, both are correct. One account says who created man. The other speculates as to a mechanism regarding how it was done.
Neither one contradicts the other. Neither one enforces the other.

Nor does Darwin say anything one way or the other as to the ultimate final cause of evolution. That is a question outside the realm of science. While it is true that most secular progressives and many religious folk read Darwin to say that evolution is blind and purposeless, his writings do not support this conclusion. Darwin is writing an empirical theory. Talk of blindness and purposefulness is a teleological matter, that is, a metaphysical assumption.
If you find a pack of cards and all the cards are in order by number and suit, empiricism only tells you the arrangements of the cards. It does not tell you whether a hand deliberately put those cards in sequence, or random shuffles by happenstance arranged the sequence.

(It is a very remote happenstance indeed, but not technically impossible. In a multiverse of infinite parallel timelines, we happen to be occupying the one where random chance laid out the deck in perfect numerical order. If you find this kind of reasoning palatable — I confess I do not.)

Be that as it may, the question of whether something was done on purpose is a question of final causes, that is, a metaphysical question. The cards are in the same order either way.
So what causes the antipathy?

It is not an argument over the origin of species, nor even an argument over the origin of man. It is an argument over whether or not life is worth living, thought worth thinking, man worth being man.
Or, in other words, whence, whither, and who?

The Christian answers these question by saying Man is the creation of an omnipotent and omniscient father; due to our rebellion, we are headed for hell, but due to the creator’s incomprehensible benevolence, we have hope of paradise; we are the beloved children of God, the most wretched of animals, and the crown and glory of creation, set here on Earth to learn to love, serve, and glorify the Lord. Human nature is built to find lasting joy in no other service. We were made for love.

Whether true or not, whether flattering to human pride or not, these answers are certainly dramatic. Every tiny act of love or sin has eternal consequences.  No aspect of human existence, no matter how tiny, lacks a deeper, spiritual meaning. No one’s life is meaningless.

Indeed, by the Christian answer of who we are, the universe itself is less meaningful than the smallest human life history forgets, because that soul will outlast the universe by an infinite proportion.
 
Darwin himself, if you read ORIGIN OF SPECIES, makes no pretense of answering any such question. That book does not address these issues.
However, Hegel, Nietzsche, Marx, and an countless number of our modern version of Gnostics, the Secular Progressives, place a strained and unjustified interpretation Darwinism, and from it deduce philosophical, moral and political conclusions.

What Darwin does not say is that simpler, more primitive, and worse things always turn, by means of their own innate power, directed by the directionless outcome of endless conflict, into better and more complex things.
Hegel is the one who said the clash of opposite philosophical ideas leads to an ever increasing approach to the absolute truth.

Nietzsche is the one who said the superman, the next stage of human evolution, would overthrow Christian moral thought and erect an amoral suprehuman to whom categories of good and evil no longer applied.
Marx is the one who said that the clash of class conflict between economic roles (he conflated the two) would produce ever more efficient economic systems, culminating in socialism.
Darwin never said any of this nonsense.

It is nonsense because it is self refuting: if Hegel is true, anti-Hegelianism is also true, and a new truth will leap out of a synthesis of Hegelianism and Anti-Hegelianism, ergo Hegel by his own terms is not true; if Nietzsche is good, the progress from man to superman is not a good thing, nor evil, but pointless ergo Nietzsche by his own terms is pointless, that is, not good; and if the political theory of Marx is correct, political evolution is controlled by nonhuman factors of history beyond human control, ergo theorizing about it is in vain, ergo by his own terms, Marx is not correct.

Darwin never even said natural selection is a noticeable factor, or a factor at all, among intelligent toolusers.  There is certainly no obvious reason why it should be: instead of growing hair, the Eskimos hunt and trap seals for fur. Instead of letting the bookish people with poor eyesight dies out before mating, the European invents eyeglasses.
If natural selection were a noticeable factor among human reproduction, the Catholics, who forbid contraception, divorce, abortion, sodomy, feminism, and fornication (all of which hinder fertility and childrearing), should significantly outbreed other sects, and pass along the “religious objection to contraception” gene, assuming there is such a gene.
But even if natural selection were a noticeable factor among human reproduction, there is no reason to assume that the secular progressive notion that the past is always worse and the future always better would hold true.

Why Mother Nature would select for intelligence or artistic talent or beauty or any other quality we humans find desirable in mates is unanswered: the robust and fertile Morlocks or the docile and fecund Eloi are just as likely to be the inheritors of the human legacy, going simply by Darwinian natural selection, than the godlike superman of Nietzsche or DC comics.

So, Darwin himself is silent on the matter. Darwinism, however, the misreading provided by Hegel, Nietzsche, Marx and Progressivism does answer the questions, and has, with remarkable success, won the war of ideas and forced all other answers into silence.
 
 
According to Progressivism, we come in the long run from the unintentional by product of mindless chemical and atomic forces operating inside the mechanism of an animate but dead and mindless and indifferent universe. Blind chance blew us into being by mere happenstance, and not for any reason, nor to serve any purpose.
We come in the short run from beastlike ancestors, and through the heroic operation of genetic and social evolution, passed from cannibal savagery, to hunter-gatherer bands, to nomadic herdsmen, to farmers, to city-dwellers, domesticating the dog and horse, and learning the arts and sciences along the way.

We passed from primitive animism through polytheism, encountered a centuries long fever of monotheism, from which we have happily broken free, allowing us to create rigorous science, which in turn gives us the philosophical, moral and political doctrines of Hegelianism, Nietzscheanism, Marxism.

According to Progressivism, in the short run, the future holds a Green Energy world of solar powered rocketships to the moon, eugenics to wipe out all Jews, Catholics, and lesser races, diversity in all things but ideas, endless abortions to make sure there will be fewer persons to burden the planet, and those few will share all property in common. The laws of economic will vanish softly and suddenly away like the Boojam, and, without specialization of labor, there will suddenly and for no imaginable reason be no more original sin. An infinitely powerful Big Brother style government will bring us all into a walled garden of total thought conformity, and wipe all tears from our eyes, and there will be no pain, war, or sorrow in Utopia.

According to Progressivism, in the long run, we are heading for entropy and the heat death of the universe, the death of all we know, love and cherish, and nothing and no one will mourn, or even note, our passing. The atoms of which we are currently composed will enter other combinations as the winds of blind chance blow, and then also will decay.
According to Progressivism, you are nothing, your life is meaningless, there are no laws of morality, no truths for the mind to discover, nothing worth doing except that your willpower makes you will to do it. You are a meat robot.

Again, all these answers are nonsense, and refute themselves. Even a schoolboy can see the error in the statement, “the truth is that there is no truth.” If the Progressive account of the past is correct, then all of the contents of our brains, including the Progressive account of the past, is a mechanical by product of atomic and chemical forces, or of historical accident. If the Progressive account of the future is correct, then all human activity is vain, including the making of accounts of the future, Progressive or otherwise.

The Christian answer and the Progressive answer are diametrically at odds with each other in terms of the Three Questions. Darwin himself does not give the Progressive answer to the riddle of Human life, but the Progressive answer falls to nothing if Darwinism hence Hegel, Nietzsche and Marx fall to nothing.

Under the Darwinian answer to the Three Questions, you may live for physical pleasures until those pleasures pall.
After pleasure-chasing fails, the sad reality sinks in that nothing is worth doing because nothing has meaning. Even love, superlative love, has no meaning if there is no spiritual component to it, for them it is just a by product of chemicals in the brain affixing emotional responses to arbitrary objects.

Trying to reproduce or improve the species via polygamy and eugenics and genocide of inferiors might seem a fun goal, but, ultimately, it too is vain, and will go the way of the dinosaurs. Saving the environment is pointless. It is destined to go the way of the Archean Eon atmosphere.

Whether true or not, whether flattering to human pride or not, these answers are certainly undramatic to an ultimate degree. Every act of love or sin, howsoever gigantic, has no lasting consequences.  Every aspect of human existence, no matter how tiny, lacks any meaning of any kind, deep or shallow. No one’s life is meaningful.
Which means the answers to the questions are not meaningful either.

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About John C Wright
John C. Wright is a practicing philosopher, a retired attorney, newspaperman, and newspaper editor, and a published author of science fiction. Once a Houyhnhnm, he was expelled from the august ranks of purely rational beings when he fell in love; but retains an honorary title.
893  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Devastation on: June 20, 2017, 08:10:05 PM

I will take example with turing machin and OO programing, maybe it will be clearer what i'm talking about =) As the concept of entropy is quasi inexistant with turing machine, and like this we know we are not talking about something mystical Cheesy

And i think it can interest also shelby because he is into this sort of problematics with language design lol

The problem is this conceptions from metaphysics to organize the world based on fundemental 'objects' with properties, and 'entelechy' , which is abtracted with the OO semantic of having class of objects with properties and 'entelechy' through the alteration of its state by its methods.

So far good, but then the problem is when you want to program interaction between all the different type of object that can be present in the world, with OO programming generally it become quickly a design problem.

...

Either you do a visitor class for each pair of objects, and then each time you add a new type of object, you need to add visitor class for all the combination that the new object can interact with, but it's still bogus from metaphysical point of view because it mean the interaction between the object are not contained in the object themselves, but applied from the exterior through a visitor class that visit the two object in questions.

...

This whole design of hard typed object make emergent property very hard to program and conceptualize.

...

I would agree that in Turing machines the concept of entropy is quasi inexistant. Most of the time it is entirely absent.

Turing machines:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turing_machine
Quote
In his 1948 essay, "Intelligent Machinery", Turing wrote that his machine consisted of:

...an unlimited memory capacity obtained in the form of an infinite tape marked out into squares, on each of which a symbol could be printed. At any moment there is one symbol in the machine; it is called the scanned symbol. The machine can alter the scanned symbol, and its behavior is in part determined by that symbol, but the symbols on the tape elsewhere do not affect the behavior of the machine. However, the tape can be moved back and forth through the machine, this being one of the elementary operations of the machine. Any symbol on the tape may therefore eventually have an innings. (Turing 1948, p. 3[18]

The underlined portion is the key reason for both a lack of emergence and subsequently the lack of conceptual entropy in Turing machines.

In a standard Turing machine the symbols on the tape do not ultimately change the nature of the machine (even if those symbols have been previously read). This is because the typical Turing machine draws from a finite table of instructions which are ultimately fixed and invariant.  

Thus the Turing machine with a fixed and finite table is a simple system regardless of how complex and long that table may be unless you allow the table of instructions to be dynamically and permanently altered based on the tape readings.

As programming languages have a fixed set of basic code they are simple Turing machines. However computer programming language in general is something more and represents a complex system. The programmers using them are the equivalent of a tape that applies dynamic updates to the instruction table. Thus over time we have seen the progression from assembly language to C++ as discussed in your links above.

I am not going to be helpful in a technical discussion of how to add emergence to a programmed system as I am not a programmer but I will address one of your points.

You appear to arguing (in the bolded section above) that if the interaction between objects are not contained in the objects themselves but requite an external observer/visitor state then the system is not valid from metaphysical point of view. If I understand you correctly you are arguing that a programmed system must be complete to be metaphysically valid.

Completeness is never possible. For a discussion on this point I would refer you to an excellent write up by Perry Marshall: The Limits of Science and Programming

“Without mathematics we cannot penetrate deeply into philosophy.
Without philosophy we cannot penetrate deeply into mathematics.
Without both we cannot penetrate deeply into anything.”

-Leibniz
894  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The Barry Silbert segwit agreement with >80% miner agreement. on: June 20, 2017, 06:36:19 AM
How ridiculous the face saving code has become is nicely summarised by Samson Mow.

Quote
Letter to signal intent to use "NYA" coinbase signal to signal using bit4 to signal bit1 to signal BIP141 activation.
Instead of just signalling BIP141... One day history will look back upon our blockchain and facepalm. Heck I think it already is.

Meanwhile support just hit 64% over the last 24 hours.

For those non-developer non-miner folks like me who found the the bit signaling thing to be confusing here is a nice write-up that explains it pretty well.
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/bip91-segwit-activation-kludge-should-keep-bitcoin-whole/
895  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Devastation on: June 18, 2017, 09:04:47 PM

But for me need to distinguish between chaotic function, predictibility and entropy...

In a way this whole distinction between self organisation and entropy is very subjective, and mostly in the eye of the beholder Smiley Maybe the whole universe is in a process of self organisation and there is not one particule or quanta in the whole thing that is not participating in this auto organisation.

...

Chaos theory are also different from entropy, in the sense with chaotic functions, the functions is already supposed to be unpredictible to begin with, so there is not really a concept of entropy as how the function result will deviate from expected outcome.

...

Even if most of the time i guess what engineers will measure as entropy in a system will mostly be emergent properties, quantum stuff, etc it's mostly a concept that apply to linear system because linear system are never accurate in physics, which can make one wonder why it's even called science to begin with, it's interest is mostly for industrial economy.

After you can see a tree or a child as just noise (actually children are often just this Cheesy), compared to the beautifully dystopia the megalomaniac in goldman sachs are trying to concoct Cheesy A parking is certainly 'less entropic' than a forest Cheesy


IadixDev I would actually agree with your description of the universe above but would also argue that it is incomplete as it focuses only on self-organisation and neglects the other aspects of complexity. This is a similar objection to the one you raised against the term entropy.  

I take the position that the entire universe is in a process of ever increasing complexity and there is not one particle or quanta in the whole thing that is not participating in this growing complexity.

Anonymint the author of the essays linked in the opening post is a self described anarchist and focuses on emergence, entropy, and freedom. You seem to view the world more as a process of self-organisation.

I believe both of these conceptions can be brought into harmony under the broader umbrella of complexity.

Complex systems exhibit four characteristics:
–  Self-organization
–  Non-linearity
–  Order/Chaos Dynamic
–  Emergence

Informational entropy provides a way to empirically measure emergence but emergence is only one aspect of complexity. Self-organization can be looked at as a process that actually reduces entropy yet it undeniably also increases complexity.

The chaos in this context is a observation of system dynamics. Systems exist on a spectrum ranging from equilibrium to chaos. A system in equilibrium does not have the internal dynamics to enable it to respond to its environment and will slowly (or quickly) die. A system in chaos ceases to function as a system. A system on the edge of chaos will exhibit maximum variety and creativity, leading to new possibilities. The field of complexity analysis is new and still in its infancy.

“God chose to give all the easy problems to the physicists.” —Michael Lave & Jim March, Introduction to Models in the Social Sciences

 

 
896  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Devastation on: June 17, 2017, 09:21:44 PM

Well the concept of entropy is mostly relevant in the context of engineering, where one build a system, and has to consider that what matter in term of right or wrong is that the machine work as planned / wanted by the designer, and in this perspective, the entropy is always something unwanted, or defined negatively as a divergeance from the expected /wanted result.

...what is to be considered as good in environment is things that works as planned by a designer, and 'chaos' is seen by definition as something to be avoided / deconsidered, or as some kind of waste of energy that make the system not as efficient as it should be to full fill its purpose.


This is because we have until very recent focused our engineering efforts on creating predictable or "dumb" devices.

In the context of the discussion upthread the goal has been to accomplish a fixed task and then maximise the self-organisation of the system ideally driving emergence to zero aka minimising informational entropy. In this context entropy represents loss or misdirected efforts.

However, if we want an adaptive machine capable of responding to unanticipated environmental changes or improving over time then we need a component of emergence and thus Shannon entropy.

This can be seen when looking at one of the more famous new machines Google's Go playing machine AlphaGo. This machine must respond to unpredictable responses from opponents and still win in a game that is to complex to simply play via simple brute force.

Christopher Burger who has a Ph.D in machine learning wrote this interesting analysis of how AlphaGo works.

https://www.tastehit.com/blog/google-deepmind-alphago-how-it-works/

Quote from: Christopher Burger
AlphaGo uses a Monte Carlo Tree Search. Monte Carlo Tree Search is an alternative approach to searching the game tree. The idea is to run many game simulations. Each simulation starts at the current game state and stops when the game is won by one of the two players. At first, the simulations are completely random: actions are chosen randomly at each state, for both players. At each simulation, some values are stored, such as how often each node has been visited, and how often this has led to a win. These numbers guide the later simulations in selecting actions (simulations thus become less and less random). The more simulations are executed, the more accurate these numbers become at selecting winning moves. It can be shown that as the number of simulations grows, MCTS indeed converges to optimal play.

897  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Devastation on: June 17, 2017, 02:45:28 PM
Source: http://www.coolpage.com/

stopped reading there.

That's too bad you missed out on an interesting essay.
Wisdom is not limited to the ivory tower.
898  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Devastation on: June 17, 2017, 02:34:20 PM

In the same time i completely get what he mean, it's just the term of entropy is not necessarily the best to employ to describe what he talks about lol It's seeing the issue from the wrong side IMO lol You can't get a positive definition of the process of individuation if you only see it as entropy as how it deviate from socially expected behavior Smiley


I am actually somewhat sympathetic to this position. Ideally it would be Anonymint here defending his definitions but he is boycotting the forum at the moment after getting his most recent incarnation banned so I will do my best to defend his thesis in his absence.


Emergent properties can be predicted, sometime they are not entropic Smiley

But entropy is only mesurable against expected behavior from a constructed system to measure how the data fit the theory behind the design of the system.

This connection between emergent property & entropy works for properties emerging from a designed/constructed system, not for measuring "natural" behavior out of the context of a fabricated system. It's only entropy if it's measured as a difference with predicted outcome.

Let's dive into the definitions and see where that takes us. From the papers I linked above:.

Emergence can be understood as new global patterns which are not present in the system’s components.

Self-organization, in its most general form, can be seen as a reduction of entropy. Self-organization is the complement of Emergence and a metric of order and regularity.

Complexity comes from the Latin plexus, which means inter-woven. something complex is difficult to separate. Complexity represents a balance between change (Emergence) and regularity (Self-organization), which allows systems to adapt in a robust fashion. Regularity ensures that information survives, while change allows the exploration of new possibilities, essential for adaptability. In this sense, complexity can also be used to characterize living systems or artificial adaptive systems, especially when comparing their complexity with that of their environment. More precisely, complexity describes a system’s behavior in terms of the average uncertainty produced by emergent and regular global patterns as described by its probability distribution.

So where does entropy come in?

Information entropy is a deterministic complexity measure, since it quantifies the degree of randomness. If we can measure degree of randomness we also quantify emergence with some limitations

As you said entropy is only measurable against expected behavior in a constructed system. The complexity of different phenomena can be calculated using entropy-based measures. However, to obtain meaningful results, we must first determine the adequate function to be employed for the problem. In the case of "natural" behavior out of the context of a human fabricated system this becomes problematic as we don't know the underlying function.

I believe it was Gödel who said, the world is either a perfect order of God, or chaos. The difference is in the belief that infinity comes before entropy.

If we go with infinity then we can assume that some underlying function exists for all systems including "natural" ones. Lacking an understanding of the system we may not be able to measure the the entropy and the associated emergence but we can assume the relationship persists outside of our knowledge.

What you call the process of individuation is not just about maximizing emergence aka maximizing entropy. The "process of individuation" is the maximization of emergence while maintaining overall self-organization. It is the long term maximization of the complexity of the system.
899  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Devastation on: June 16, 2017, 07:15:49 PM
your concept of "emerging properties" which you need to define for us.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emergence


Thanks that is helpful. Yes it appears we are more or less talking about the same thing. Information entropy or Shannon entropy is simply a way to emperically measure and quantify what you are calling emergence. Here are a couple of papers on this if you are interested in reading more.

Measuring Emergence, Self-organization, and Complexity Based on Shannon Entropy
http://journal-cdn.frontiersin.org/article/244727/files/pubmed-zip/versions/1/pdf

Quote
We present a set of Matlab/Octave functions to compute measures of emergence, self-organization, and complexity applied to discrete and continuous data. These measures are based on Shannon’s information and differential entropy. Examples from different datasets and probability distributions are provided to show how to use our proposed code.

...

Complexity has generated interest in recent years (Bar-Yam, 1997; Mitchell, 2009; Haken and Portugali, 2017). A complex system can be understood as one composed by many elements, which acquire functional/spatial/temporal structures without a priori speci cations (Haken and Portugali, 2017). It has been studied in several disciplines, as one can try to measure the complexity of almost any phenomenon (Lopez-Ruiz et al., 1995; Bandt and Pompe, 2002; Prokopenko et al., 2009; Lizier, 2014; Soler-Toscano et al., 2014; Haken and Portugali, 2017). us, there exist a broad variety of measures of complexity where Shannon’s entropy and its generalizations have played a crucial role (Haken and Portugali, 2017).


Information Entropy As a Basic Building Block of Complexity Theory
http://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/15/9/3396/pdf

Quote
Abstract: What is information? What role does information entropy play in this information exploding age, especially in understanding emergent behaviors of complex systems? To answer these questions, we discuss the origin of information entropy, the difference between information entropy and thermodynamic entropy, the role of information entropy in complexity theories, including chaos theory and fractal theory, and speculate new fields in which information entropy may play important roles.


 
900  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Devastation on: June 16, 2017, 03:23:29 PM
1) Regarding the metric of entropy.

Here are two post you may find interesting.

Entropy is Information
Entropy and Freedom

The first is a discussion on the relationship between entropy and information by Anonymint that is informative. The second is an excerpt from the book Knowledge and Power by George Gilder where the relationship between entropy and freedom is explored.


The above post seem to be confusing this concept of emerging properties and entropy =)

In the context of thermodynamics, the level of entropy is measured as defect from the expected output.


The definition of entropy used here is not that of thermodynamic entropy but information or Shannon Entropy.

Shannon Entropy is a measure of unpredictability of the state, or equivalently, of its average information content. The exact relationship between thermodynamic entropy and informational entropy is complex. Here is an excerpt from Wikipedia.

"At an everyday practical level the links between information entropy and thermodynamic entropy are not evident. Physicists and chemists are apt to be more interested in changes in entropy as a system spontaneously evolves away from its initial conditions, in accordance with the second law of thermodynamics, rather than an unchanging probability distribution...Furthermore, in classical thermodynamics the entropy is defined in terms of macroscopic measurements and makes no reference to any probability distribution, which is central to the definition of information entropy.

In the view of Jaynes (1957), thermodynamic entropy, as explained by statistical mechanics, should be seen as an application of Shannon's information theory: the thermodynamic entropy is interpreted as being proportional to the amount of further Shannon information needed to define the detailed microscopic state of the system, that remains uncommunicated by a description solely in terms of the macroscopic variables of classical thermodynamics.


Thus if Jaynes is correct classical thermodynamic entropy is simply a special case of broader information theory much as Newton's laws of motion emerge as a special case of general relativity.

Both Anonymint and George Gilder above take the position that Jaynes is correct and this in turn supports their use of the term entropy.

To make your case you need to show either:

1) That Jaynes is incorrect.
or
2) That Anonymint and George Gilder are incorrectly using Shannon entropy when they should instead be using your concept of "emerging properties" which you need to define for us.

I think you will have a very difficult time showing either of these things as I am of the opinion that Anonymint and Mr. Gilder are correct. That said if you can prove them wrong I would be very interested to see it.


IMO if you are waiting on other people to build a structure you agree to be free, you are never really free at all Cheesy  Society, tradition, religion, all about volontary bondage Cheesy

I am not really following you here. If you are arguing that absolute freedom is impossible then I agree. The best we can do is minimize the restrictions on our our collective freedom. If you are interested in my thoughts on how we can best accomplish this I have outlined them here.

Faith and Future

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