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1  Economy / Speculation / Re: Nobody is really shorting bitcoins... on: August 07, 2016, 09:44:06 PM
Edit: Following was the PM: Since it expcilitly allowed me to post the decision i went for the full quote.
I can think of two ways to interpret your bet. First, that bitcoin is at or above $500 on december 31 2015. Second, that bitcoin hits $500 at any point before that. I don't care which it is, you can choose. Please post your decision in the thread.
I will choose option 1. At that date a tranfser will be initiated.
I will gladly perfom a transfer to a owned address with a message of your choise (please nothing illegal!) to prove i am in possesion of a bitcoin. I would like some kind of proof that is its reasonable to assume you can uphold your end of the bargain as well. Can be per PM.

Edit: Added above edit notice.
I don't need proof. In the event of your loss, whatever happens on your end will be proof enough. As for my proof, here is one of my public keys: 1kGPm64ErfBWBnfaGXnZtFaRhJuWiZiUY.

Additionally, I live in Denmark. A week or so on the public teat would satisfy my end of the bet.
Geez, completely forgot about this bet. Looks like everything happened as expected.
2  Economy / Speculation / Re: DCB Over, Back to reality on: October 11, 2014, 02:18:59 PM
You missed the main thrust deliberately which is that consumers haven't driven bitcoin previously, nor will they drive the next price cycle.
Right. Previous cycles were broader media coverage. People speculating that BTC could grow big (and that obviously means consumer adoption, what else?).

The rest is just you trolling. Shame.
I think you should repeat that sentance.
In front of a mirror.
3  Economy / Speculation / Re: DCB Over, Back to reality on: October 11, 2014, 12:07:27 PM
But to the average joe it's benefits and use case are basically an unknown.
Thats a pretty good thing actually. Means they also dont know about all the deficits. And thats there is time to improve it before its ready for wide adoption.

You keep repeating yourself that it is about consumer adoption. I am not sure why you say that when precisely none of the previous bubbles relied upon consumers adopting bitcoin to drive the price rises.
All of the previous bubbles have aligned with extended media coverage. At first just some crypto-related channels. Later on tech sites, e.g. slashdot and similiar. And even further on main-stream media.

People like to balance their risk and when bitcoin is accessible by the trillions of dollars in share portfolios it doesn't take much foresight to see the price will potentially leap upwards dramatically.
And why would someone invest trillions into a technology that hasnt seen any significant user adoption?

Consumer adoption will rise with bitcoin, especially as utility of the digital currency improves online. But it is not consumers adopting bitcoin which will move the price up from the relative lows it is experiencing now.
I´m pretty sure that bitcoin will/would rise with consumer adoption, not the other way round. Why would a consumer, who wants to use it as a payment system or store of value, be interested in how much a single coin is worth? Thats just an arbitrary number. Thats like saying consumer adoption would be higher if Satoshi had decided to cap the maximum at 2.1M instead of 21M, because a bitcoin would be worth ten times as much now.
4  Economy / Speculation / Re: DCB Over, Back to reality on: October 11, 2014, 11:30:20 AM
By now pretty much everyone who could invest in BTC knows about it. Its about consumer adoption now.
Don't talk utter nonsense. Between 300,000 and roughly a million people use bitcoin and you think everyone who could invest in BTC knows about it?
When the price rises the next wave will come in just like every other time.
Ok, then which potential investor doesnt know about bitcoin?
Banks know about (and a couple have even written papers about it), governments know about it (and have written advisories), Wall Street and investors knows about it (and have invested quite a lot of money into startups around bitcoin). Who doesnt know about it?
Its about consumer adoption know (i know, i´m repeating myself here).
5  Economy / Speculation / Re: DCB Over, Back to reality on: October 11, 2014, 09:43:04 AM
Does anyone seriously expect a bubble until consumer adoption is cheap and easy?
The last few bubbles happened when bitcoin was far more difficult to obtain. When the price starts to climb again a mania will follow.
Yes, but that was due to widespread media coverage. By now pretty much everyone who could invest in BTC knows about it. Its about consumer adoption now.
I mean, sure, basicly you couldnt rule out that the next bubble will be due to aliens buying it after the inter-galactic news network publishes an article about a "fantastic and innovative payment system developed by some ape-like beings on a boring planet on the edge of the milky way".
6  Economy / Speculation / Re: DCB Over, Back to reality on: October 11, 2014, 09:35:53 AM
Trolls have correctly predicted 87 of the last 4 Bitcoin crashes.
Does anyone seriously expect a bubble until consumer adoption is cheap and easy?
I don't know. What does that have to do with my comment?
Simple. If it wont bubble again until consumer adoption then obviously the trolls (or whatever you call the people predicting a price decline) will have to be right every now and then.
7  Economy / Speculation / Re: DCB Over, Back to reality on: October 10, 2014, 10:40:13 PM
Trolls have correctly predicted 87 of the last 4 Bitcoin crashes.
Does anyone seriously expect a bubble until consumer adoption is cheap and easy?
8  Economy / Economics / Re: Can bitcoin survive without the Internet? on: October 10, 2014, 10:26:40 PM
People CANT survive without internet.
I'm wondering how did my ancestors survived in the past without internet? Tongue
The economy was much less efficient and people had a much lower standard of living.
Bullshit.
For a lot of essential functions the internet only saves a meager amount.
I have already dealt with institutions that that calculate with "ok, and what happens when a tank blows up an office?" type of events. Internet is a "nice to have" to save a couple of expenses, but its very far from being essential.
9  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Can the last Bitcoin, #21,000,000, ever be mined? on: October 10, 2014, 10:14:05 PM
Is it even possible?
Sure. And Bitcoin number 42.000.000 can be mined as well.
All it takes are a couple of lines of code changes.
You know like, "hey, deflationary is stupid, screw that".
10  Economy / Speculation / Re: Source of 30k+ ask wall on Bitstamp on: October 06, 2014, 07:20:11 PM
Has anyone considered the possibility that someone just bought their own coins on Stamp? I mean, yeah you'd have to spend quite some amount of fees, but the effect on the market could be in a way to achieve something bigger.
Was thinking along that line as well. Volume low for ages, and then a huge sell wall gets eaten up so quickly? But it stop right after eating through it?
Might be a "cheap" attempt to get people to start a rally.
Sure would quite a lot in fees, unless it were people from Bitstamp themselves. But may have been considered worth the risk anyway to trigger a rally.
11  Economy / Speculation / Re: bottom around 200$ in summer 2015? on: October 06, 2014, 05:44:01 PM
To be honest, I'm annoyed by this prolonged bear market and I would like it to stop right now. I drew some lines here, however, which would indicate the bottom around 200$, maybe even a bit lower in summer/autumn 2015 (and after that hopefully breaking upwards to da moon)
Pretty similiar to what i was thinking. However i also expected it to hang around $500 by end of the year, so the bottom might actually be lower. And there are still a lot of requirements missing (ease of use, low fee accessability, incentives from merchants), but mid year next year seems possible. From there on an exponential growth seems reasonable. Might well be like 30%/year. So the ATH could easily be broken in less than a decade.
12  Economy / Speculation / Re: [prediction] Next spike $560,000 14 months from now on: October 04, 2014, 08:56:49 PM
What does this have to do with what I said though ?
This means even with continuous exponential growth the miners are still far behind last year's ATH.
Actually they arent. Prices would have to be a lot closer to last ATH for mining to be profitable (at least for "normal" people buying devices).
13  Economy / Speculation / Re: [prediction] Next spike $560,000 14 months from now on: October 04, 2014, 08:52:23 PM
He thought the internet was developed in 1993. Did you even read further after that statement?  Cheesy
In his defence he wrote www, not internet.
Mosaic was pretty much the first "widely" used browser, and that was 93.
14  Economy / Speculation / Re: [prediction] Next spike $560,000 14 months from now on: October 04, 2014, 08:49:37 PM
I'm sorry, but you are wrong.
If bitcoin price is 10x higher than mining costs then a lot of new miners will emerge ... simply because they can make some profit.

Sure, but they ALWAYS lag behind.

Consider that some suggest it currently costs about 300$ or so to mine a coin at today's hash rate.

This means even with continuous exponential growth the miners are still far behind last year's ATH.
Why go for a suggestion? Just plug the numbers into any damn mining calculator.
E.g. a brand new Antminer S4 will break even after 5 months. Assuming you pay 5 c/kWh and the difficulty will NOT increase any further. Even assuming a mere 15% difficulty increase per month it will never break even (current 30 day average is 26%).
Either you can get something like a 50% discount of retail prices or you can forget turning a profit from mining currently.
15  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Virus detected in the blockchain on: October 04, 2014, 08:27:28 PM
some crap virus scanners dont detect actual viruses, they just have lists of filenames, and it happens to be that a certain old virus from the 1990's had a filename called blk00129.dat.

i kinda remember someone posting about this last year
Its not the filename. There actually is part of an old MS-DOS virus in the blockchain.
Fortunately its harmless.
16  Economy / Speculation / Re: [prediction] Next spike $560,000 14 months from now on: October 04, 2014, 07:59:20 PM
Case in point : I don't have any numbers to back this up but the cost of mining a Bitcoin at the last ATH was certainly less than a 1/10th of the price.
I know for sure. I had a rig mining back then (and a couple of gfx cards for scrypt coins).
But that doesnt change anything. Mining capacity follows price. With Asics there is allways a delay, due to the long times between (pre-)ordering and shipping. The hashing power has kept rising at unsustainable rates since last ATH (actually next difficulty change might be first drop since around the time of the first reward reduction). Mining cards like the BFL monarchs which were ordered during the ATH still havent been shipped (and its very well possible they never will...).
17  Economy / Speculation / Re: [prediction] Next spike $560,000 14 months from now on: October 04, 2014, 07:51:49 PM
The price of bitcoin merely has to be at least the cost of electriticy to produce it. There is nothing preventing it from being higher. Or much higher.
Nothing. Except rational behavior.
If mining is is highly profitable more people (or farms) will do it and expand capacities. I mean, seriously, who wouldnt want to buy a "money printing" machine?
Mining capacity (and power requirements) will allways follow price.
18  Economy / Speculation / Re: [prediction] Next spike $560,000 14 months from now on: October 04, 2014, 06:40:16 PM
Why on earth does the mining have to use more power than a medium size country as the price rises?
Because the miners get paid with block rewards in bitcoin. As the price of bitcoin rises so does the block reward.
And as long the mining gear produces more rewards than the power to run it costs, it will stay online. And at, say $500K per coin and 12.5BTC/block that would be like $900M rewards/day or ~$330B/year. A large amount of that would be going into paying the electricity bills.
19  Economy / Speculation / Re: [prediction] Next spike $560,000 14 months from now on: October 04, 2014, 06:10:24 PM
Why goat my dear fellow, it's wild speculation, implication is in the eye of the beholder.
Well, the chart does imply a couple of things, amoth others the following.
The mining network will consume more power than a medium sized country.
The technology will still not be widely used, even at those price levels, otherwise it would have stabilzed with a high volume.
So, thats what you believe?
20  Economy / Speculation / Re: [prediction] Next spike $560,000 14 months from now on: October 04, 2014, 02:36:34 PM
Also continuing to mischarecterise my posts as advice to buy, reveals the shallowness of your thiught process.
Well, i would guess there are only so many interpretations for a topic called "[prediction] Next spike $560,000 14 months from now".
I mean, what is the topic supposed to imply?
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