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1  Economy / Speculation / Re: My prediction for 2015 on: June 01, 2015, 07:46:01 AM
Apparently not long enough to know the 2nd rule of Bitcoin: When a custodian loses or steals your bitcoin, rebuy it immediately before the rocket takes off.


I've been around long enough to know that this is bad advice.

If I had rebought right after the Gox fiasco, I'd have lost an insane amount of money.

However, if I buy back in with profits from the judgement, I'm playing with free money...if I never see a penny from the judgement, I lost a marginal amount of money (less than a month of my stock income).


Rules? There are no rules of bitcoin....just layers of "greater fools"'
2  Economy / Speculation / Re: My prediction for 2015 on: June 01, 2015, 07:16:17 AM
don't think anything will change this year. we might start seeing signs of life in 2016 as the blockhalving then comes closer and closer. how much mtgox coins will be released to users if ever? don't think many will sell them directly.

It's not about coins being released...I imagine that there will be many who (like me) who will take their money in .gov currency.

But, even taking into consideration that the judgement will likely only provide a partial payout, many of us (former gox clients) will still come out quite a bit ahead...and will be willing to reinvest, at least partially.

What you have here is renewed confidence, and the financial backing of true believers who just received "free money", as most of us considered this money permanently lost.

This is the type of trigger that can ignite another bubble, particularly  if backed by good press.


I've been around here a long time guys, and I've been both a bear and a bull, but always pragmatic.....this isn't about hype...it's writing on the wall....
3  Economy / Speculation / Evolve's 2015 prediction thread.... Party like it's Nov 2014 on: May 31, 2015, 08:47:37 AM
More or less stagnant through the summer...then signs of life in fall, possibly the start of the next bubble by the end of 2015.

If Gox ends up paying out, I think it could have a tremendous effect on the price.



You heard it here first, guys.....here's to another major bubble.......2016 may be a banner year
4  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: List of Major Bitcoin Heists, Thefts, Hacks, Scams, and Losses on: February 26, 2014, 08:25:12 AM
Update OP with Mt.Gox.
5  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Official Money Lost in Mt. GOX Thread on: February 25, 2014, 05:51:31 AM
2.08 BTC.  274 USD....and I had an unverified account, so chances of recovery are exactly 0.

Should've cashed out earlier, but I got greedy.
6  Economy / Service Discussion / Gox halts trading. on: February 25, 2014, 02:44:05 AM
Only a matter of time before they disappear completely.


Edit:
Welp, this thread was moved from the speculation forum to service discussion.  Since there is already a thread about this in this subforum, Ill lock it.
7  Economy / Speculation / Re: Winklevoss ETF question on: February 23, 2014, 04:36:59 AM
Does Gold have more liquidity than the GLD?

Yes. 
8  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is there even 1 person on this site who thinks mtgox btc holders should sell? on: February 20, 2014, 05:53:58 PM
I wonder how many people are stuck with Gox.

My entire balance is in gox.  

Luckily, its just play money (a couple BTC  and around $150) so its not the end of the world if I lose it.  Personally, I believe Gox is going to go insolvent, but since I dont have enough money in there to be worth recovering in a lawsuit, I am actively trading on the off chance withdrawals are allowed again.
9  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is there even 1 person on this site who thinks mtgox btc holders should sell? on: February 20, 2014, 05:46:29 PM
It all depends on what you think the outcome will be with Gox.



If you think Gox is insolvent/will declare bankruptcy you are better off selling, because it may be easier to get the money back in a lawsuit if your balance is in actual money.

However, if you believe Gox will allow withdrawals again and go back to business as usual, you should buy or trade.

If you cant decide, you are best off just holding.
10  Economy / Speculation / Re: Mt. Gox - To resume withdrawals Feb 20th - New ATH approaching on: February 18, 2014, 09:26:36 PM
Keep dreaming. I thought for sure they would be gone by now after their prior fuck ups, but alas, no.

Welcome to the free market; you should never expect rationality.
11  Economy / Speculation / Re: Poll: Will mt gox really resume withdrawls thursday or will they stall more. on: February 17, 2014, 10:10:47 PM
Limited withdrawals to prevent a hard bank run.
12  Economy / Speculation / Re: Are there any other Optimistic Bears? on: February 17, 2014, 10:00:43 PM
It seems that opinions on Bitcoin are primarily divided into two categories:

(1) BULLS: People who grok Bitcoin, and thus are perma-bulls

(2) BEARS: People who do not grok Bitcoin, and thus are perma-bears

I would like to propose a third, new, much rarer category:

(3) OPTIMISTIC BEARS: People who grok Bitcoin and believe in its future, yet acknowledge that, at present, Bitcoin and especially alt-coins are still in the midst of a major speculative bubble that must deflate before the next growth phase can begin.

If you're in category 3, then please join me in this thread. Welcome to the home of the optimistic bears. I would like to hear from you.

Your definitions are completely wrong. That isnt even close to what the terms "bear" and "bull" mean, and the term "optimistic bear" is a meaningless oxymoron.


I guess we need to review this again.

Definition of 'Bear'

An investor who believes that a particular security or market is headed downward. Bears attempt to profit from a decline in prices. Bears are generally pessimistic about the state of a given market.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bear.asp



Definition of 'Bull'

An investor who thinks the market, a specific security or an industry will rise. Investors who takes a bull approach will purchase securities under the assumption that they can be sold later at a higher price.

A "bear" is considered to be the opposite of a bull. Bear investors believe that the value of a specific security or an industry is likely to decline in the future.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bull.asp



Why do people on this forum find that hard to grasp?  If you currently think the market is going to decline, your a bear, if you currently think it will go up, you are a bull.  Every investor will react to the market and alternate between bullish or bearish.  "Bull" and "bear" have nothing to do with your individual market philosophy, it is simply a reflection of where you currently think the price is going.


tl:dr There is no such thing as "permabear" or "permabull" or "optimistic bear"...those are a basterdization of terms by people who dont understand basic investment terms.
13  Economy / Speculation / Re: (Poll) Do you have money in Mt Gox? on: February 17, 2014, 02:06:18 AM
No. There is no proof that Gox is selling BTC it doesn't have, yet.  People assume that they are insolvent, but as I said before, only karpeles and his cronies know for sure.

The truth is no one knows, but the market is acting on pure assumption at this point due to a lack of communication from Gox.

What does gox achieve by not allowing withdrawals?

Conspiracy to drive down the price?

Although, Karpeles looks like a complete moron, so my bet is, he has lost the money, screwed everyone over and is now destroying gox.



Because they haven't fixed the transaction duplication problem.
If there is indeed such a problem. I don't believe they could be so incompetent as to have a known piece of the code shut them down for so long with no word on when things will be back in working order. It's a scam at this point.

I think they are definitely that incompetent.  Gox always handles things in the most stupid way imaginable.  


That said, whether they can survive this or not is uncertain; then again it was uncertain they'd survive the hack and trade rollback back in 2011. 
14  Economy / Speculation / Re: (Poll) Do you have money in Mt Gox? on: February 16, 2014, 09:51:00 PM
No. There is no proof that Gox is selling BTC it doesn't have, yet.  People assume that they are insolvent, but as I said before, only karpeles and his cronies know for sure.

The truth is no one knows, but the market is acting on pure assumption at this point due to a lack of communication from Gox.

What does gox achieve by not allowing withdrawals?

Conspiracy to drive down the price?

Although, Karpeles looks like a complete moron, so my bet is, he has lost the money, screwed everyone over and is now destroying gox.



Because they haven't fixed the transaction duplication problem.
15  Economy / Speculation / Re: (Poll) Do you have money in Mt Gox? on: February 16, 2014, 09:00:47 PM
No. There is no proof that Gox is selling BTC it doesn't have, yet.  People assume that they are insolvent, but as I said before, only karpeles and his cronies know for sure.

The truth is no one knows, but the market is acting on pure assumption at this point due to a lack of communication from Gox.
16  Economy / Speculation / Re: (Poll) Do you have money in Mt Gox? on: February 16, 2014, 07:34:37 PM
You don't. No one can really say what's going on at Gox besides karpeles and his cronies.  The market is losing faith in Gox, and the lack of arbitrage opportunities only exacerbates the spread between Gox and other exchanges.
17  Economy / Speculation / Re: (Poll) Do you have money in Mt Gox? on: February 16, 2014, 07:16:21 PM
4000 plus --- and many coins ?




any advice ..  Undecided   

should I buy as many coins while in 200's $ ?

or wait with fingers crossed ?

 Huh

I'm still actively trading on Gox.  I really doubt this is going to end well for those of us who have out funds locked up there, but since there is nothing to do about it at the moment, I figure it's best to stick to business as usual until the funds come unlocked or Gox closes and runs with the money.

Luckily, I just have play money in BTC, so if Gox folds, I'm only out a few hundred bucks.
18  Economy / Speculation / (Poll) Do you have money in Mt Gox? on: February 16, 2014, 06:57:08 PM
Let's see a show of hands.
19  Economy / Speculation / Re: (Poll) Will BTC break 266 on MtGox ? on: February 16, 2014, 06:47:45 PM
266 broken...voting locked
20  Economy / Speculation / Re: [poll] Call the bottom of The Great Bitcoin Crash of 2014 on: February 16, 2014, 07:38:45 AM
Give it a few days, its coming.
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