Krugman is no genius

Paul Krugman, the Nobel Prize winning American Economist was in the limelight once again for his comments regarding Bitcoin. This time he was on a panel at the 92Y’s 7 Days of Genius event. The panel was inappropriately called ‘The Genius of Economics’. Mr. Krugman has hated bitcoin since it’s birth. He has gone on record many times berating the currency and taking a knock at its supporters. He once said...

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Bitcoin Takes A Breather From The Bear

After a month of severe bearishness, bitcoin has finally found what can be perceived as support at around $200 BTC/USD. With the recent bounce to above $220, it is fair to say the largest digital currency by market cap has consolidated and for the time being has turned bullish from sideways.

While the $200 price level stands as a psychologically strong buy zone for long term investors, one must also consider that the quick consolidation and presumably short bull run might have been due to external fundamentals as well.

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Is centralization inevitable?

I asked Peter Todd, Bitcoin Core developer and author of BIP-65, which makes technology like the Lightning Network possible, about his thoughts on centralization and the inner-workings of the Lightning Network:

I expect in practice we’ll see hubs be jurisdictionally based, e.g. “fully anonymous/Tor”, Bitlicense compliant, etc. with the more permissive hubs outcompeting the less permissive. – Peter Todd


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Let's see guys. Bitcoin at $242.70 right now.

Hope all is well guys. Our third Intelligence report is out. Again, thank you all very much for the feedback on our last Bitcoin Trading Intelligence newsletter. We hope we were able to address some of the issues from last time. Feedback and any other comments are welcome.

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Bitcoin in August

August has witnessed the rapid devaluation of Bitcoin, accelerated by fundamental data and augmented by technical glitches. The possible forking on the minds of the Bitcoin community, the repeated blows following the Mt Gox disaster and the effects of the BitLicense have cast a bearish shadow over the market which resulted in a month that managed to breach significant lows.

“After the stunning price action of the last couple weeks we have seen BTCUSD grind up the traders seeing patterns that aren’t there, complete chopfest. Rather than whittling away hard earned profits remember NO position IS a position — just need to know when them time is. Just like me, many other traders in the Whaleclub believe that sometimes not trading is a right decision and people should appreciate that.”

BTCVIX, Professional Bitcoin Trader

Post the flash crash last week, the market has tested 200 and has been on a correction curve ever since. With many countries calling for increased regulation, let’s see how market emotions fared last week.

Nigeria’s central bank has called for Bitcoin regulation in order to stop money laundering and avoid international penalties. Dr. Okwu Nnanna the governor of the financial system at Nigeria’s Central Bank has cited that cryptocurrencies have no borders and hence are an easy channel for money laundering and thus there is a need to monitor them. AB 1236, a proposed California law to regulate virtual currencies has faced lot of opposition from industry lawyers.

It has now been amended saying companies that take ‘full custody’ of the currency are to be licensed and the bill is being backed by other major companies who are mostly made up of software developers. Another important country to look out for whose ecommerce demographic can play a pivotal role in the development of bitcoin system would be India.

With major companies like Microsoft and IBM backing bitcoin based startups, the Governor of RBI has made it clear that cryptocurrencies are being observed for now and would be regulated in the future.

The collapse of Mt Gox has racked up many controversies and the latest one, the arrest of Mark Karpeles, is over the issue of a fresh warrant for allegations that he has pocketed over $2.6 million from the company funds of Mt Gox. While Japan’s cryptocurrency scenario is restructuring for the best after the impact of Mt Gox, the Japanese Government has decided to regulate cryptocurrencies so as to avoid the risk of money laundering and terrorist funding.

How these coordinated regulations among different countries would affect/aid the growth and development of bitcoin is to be seen. While the ‘one-off’ depreciation of the Chinese Yuan has beaten the stock markets down in the USA and China, BTC China’s Greg Wolfson has remarked that the corresponding dip in prices in bitcoin is not devastating and in the times of uncertainty just like Gold, people are turning towards bitcoin as their safe haven.

The immediate correction after the dip is being seen as people hedge their positions in bitcoin.

Meanwhile on the Korean front, things are looking bright with a new exchange traded fund (ETF) tracking the value of bitcoin planned for launch on Korea Exchange next year.

This news coupled with Korean Bitcoin Exchange ‘Korbit’ announcing the launch of Bitwire, which allows people to send money using Bitcoin to any Korean bank account in less than two hours, the bitcoin ecosystem in Korea is trending towards a positive position.

On the European continent, the sentiment is consolidating with the launch of Mycelium Gear with Cashila’s API being integrated, this enables merchants to accept bitcoins that are automatically converted to Euros.

The financial crisis in Greece is here to stay for some time and bitcoin services providers like Cubit are trying to do what they can to help. Cubit in coordination with BTC-Greece is helping Greek citizens move their money out of the country to business partners and suppliers.

The aim is to try and work around the various capital controls that have been enforced in Greece in the hope that some private businesses can get back up and running once more. They have plans to install 1000 ATMS in order to make the this work. Even in the Black Sea Basin there are more than 13,600 locations where you can access bitcoin related stores, ATM and service providers.

On a corporate front, things have been picking up pace with Intel expressing its intention to unify the Internet of Things with bitcoin transactions. World Wide Web creator Tim-Berners-Lee leads the W3C to establish online payment standards, including Bitcoin, another sign of positive acceptance.

UBS’s Alex Batlin’s statements about Blockchain, saying that the technology will be an opportunity or threat to companies like UBS basing on how quick they act on it, has once again clarified that the technology is here to stay and is slowly gaining traction.

Patrick Byrne, the founder of Overstock.com, has acquired a broker-dealer firm built deep into the DNA of Wall Street. When the technology at the center of the acquisition is switched on, Byrne said, it will mark the first time the decentralized ledger behind bitcoin is plugged directly into Wall Street. This way it will be possible to bridge the gap between bitcoin technology and the blockchain.

With Coinbase reaching a valuation of $1 billion, it is listed as one of the top 50 tech startups in the USA. Fortifying their market share, they have launched services to purchase bitcoins through debit cards and credit cards and most recently launched in Canada.

While the service providing companies are doing well, the exchanges have taken a back step last week. The Bitfinex trade engine was blamed for the flash crash and many people experienced problems with exiting their positions during the crash, Australian Exchange, iGot, halted their trading activity and this has led to angst  among its traders and customers.

So in conclusion, it is fair to say this past week of has seen lots turmoil in bitcoin trading with loads of negative factors contributing to the market sentiment bearish.

Long Term Technical Analysis

On a weekly scale, the market has tested its long term support level at 200 and retraced quickly to 227. The bearish arc of this swing was a strong move ranging over a month, driven by fundamental factors. The Bollinger bands in the weekly chart still remain parallel showing that the market is in bounds and judging by the regression lines, is setting up for a bull trend after consolidation.

On a long term scale, RSI is approaching oversold region while MACD just took a bearish turn crossing the signal line. Since the market is yet to consolidate, taking a long term position right as of now wouldn’t be feasible. Short term trades around 224 region with stop loss around the lows of previous week’s candle, targeting 5 SMA would be feasible. Long term trades can be planned on basis of consolidation.  As soon as both Bollinger and 5 SMA become trending in the upward direction after significant consolidation, entering into trades with a long term plan would be profitable. Proper entry points for such trades would be around 220 region with stops below 217. With Market trending, possible exit points could be 266, 300 and 317.

If the market breaks out on the downside, breaking the support zone at 200, possible targets can be 157 and further drop in prices would seem likely.



Midterm Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, the support encountered around 217 region was breached and market has now found long term support at 200. With the Bollinger bands and SMA’s pointing downwards, the setup is going to remain bearish for some time until a base of consolidation is formed.
The descending triangle as shown in the daily chart between the downward trend line and support line at 200 might possibly see good number of volumes being traded in the coming days. In which direction the break out would be or the setup would change will depend on how the market approaches the vertex of the triangle.

If the Bollinger bands and short term SMA’s don’t straighten out or change direction, the break out might as well be in the downward direction, continuing the set trend. The MACD is about to cross the signal line and turn bullish, RSI has crossed 30 from the downside indicating impending bullishness in the market but when the bull run takes off is to be seen.

In the medium term, it appears that it is going to be bearish/sideways for some time. Shorting opportunities at the trend line and retracement trades with 5 SMA as support hold good potential.



Short term Technical Analysis

On a short term scale, the market has retraced over 220 levels and is expected to trade in this range for some time before either consolidating and going for a reversal or crashing down further more.

We can observe that 100 SMA is offering good support and market has not been able to go beyond 34 SMA. Picking longs over 100 SMA with 34 SMA as target would be a good short term trade. With the Bollinger bands and SMA’s still pointing downwards and higher time frame charts supporting, shorting around 34 SMA would be a good option.

The possible targets for such trades would be 100 SMA and if the market gets further trendy, a crash down back to 200 levels can also be expected, although these trades have to be done with tight stop loss. The MACD and RSI don’t give much indication as the market is sideways in the short term and retracing.



Sentiment Analysis

This week saw a lot of action with countries announcing regulation moves and unveiling of technologies which ease bitcoin and blockchain adoption. While the sentiment was bearish majorly, let’s take a look at what happened in the market:

The Bank of England has announced that Bitcoin is ‘harder money’ than Gold because of Deflation. During a presentation on digital currencies, Andy Haldane, Chief Economist and the Executive Director of Monetary Analysis and Statistics of the Bank of England stated the above statement explaining that sustained adoption would see ongoing deflation.

An article from ibtimes has given a thorough analysis of how adopting blockchain technology to the existing banking system would be difficult and how Deutsche bank’s economist sees blockchain as a threat because of the lack of the IT infrastructure to support the technology involved.
On educational front, Stanford has joined NYU and Duke University in offering bitcoin course, Princeton has launched its own bitcoin course on Coursera, strengthening the sentiment that cryptocurrencies are here to stay and further studies and research in these fields embedded into the course work is a strong possibility.

On the technological front, with e-coin launching Bitcoin Debit card affiliate program, which aims at bridging the gap between traditional financial services and bitcoin, it’s now possible to load bitcoins into debit cards and make payments for the transactions. With Coinbase also enabling purchase of bitcoin through debit-card/credit-card, we are now in a transformative phase where the traditional financial services are being used to develop and adopt systems that would be framework for the future bitcoin usage.

How the technology will evolve to accommodate or change the traditional banking system is to be seen.

Developments in Blockchain

On August 20th, Nasdaq revealed its plans with the underlying technology of Bitcoin and Blockchain. In an interview with efinancialnews Fredrik Voss, Vice President and head of Blockchain strategy at Nasdaq answered questions about how the program is progressing and what other applications Nasdaq is thinking of.

Nasdaq is planning to launch the private market initiative later this year and is clearly looking at commercial uses for the Blockchain now. The application of distributed ledgers in financial markets for things like settlement and custody, to create efficiency in back-office processes is the primary aim.

Another application of Blockchain this week would be the launch of John McAfee SwiftMail which is a new free peer-to-peer, proof-of-work, encrypted mail system that uses the technology underlying Bitcoin to replace email. The system is said to have very high encryption as privacy is one of the key aspects of SwiftMail.

Technocorner

On the techspace, what has been hogging all the limelight is the new chip for Antminer S7 by Bitmain that is believed to be more powerful than its predecessor. Bitmain, the bitcoin mining ASIC provider, announced on August 20th it is launching its fourth-generation ASIC, the BM1385. This chip is claimed to generate a 45 percent increase in hashrate while needing 50 percent less electricity than its former chip, the BM1384.

Another interesting development would be Netcoins which can supposedly turn any device (iPad, Android devices) into a bitcoin ATM. It is ideally designed for retailers to enable transactions in bitcoin and attract tech savvy customers.

News that’s also been doing rounds is about the Mike Tyson ATM. While initially the prospect was heralded to be a scam, the ATM was launched in Las Vegas with Bitcoin Direct backing the launch.

While security threats in Windows 10 has put the wallet developers in a tight situation, the iOS space is now crowded with launch of new wallets everyday making it hard for the users to choose from the many apps. Most people believe that the advanced bitcoin demographic belongs to iOS users and this is the primary reason for the competition while some say that the lack of a secure wallet in Android and security issues with Windows has led to this development.

For the original report and more please see our website: Bitcoin Trading Intelligence: September 1st, 2015

Bitcoin in August

August has witnessed rapid devaluation of Bitcoin, accelerated by fundamental data and augmented by technical glitches. The possible forking on the minds of the Bitcoin community.....

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Millions raised for privacy

Keybase, which recently raised $10.8 million in funding, offers a simple interface that connects PGP with identity. PGP was originally released in 1991, by Phil Zimmerman on an FTP server and was eventually distributed globally. At the time, the U.S. Government opened a case against Zimmerman as an arms trafficker. The United States has long considered cryptographic software as a munition, according to Wikipedia. The case was dropped in 1996. PGP became widely used in technical circles to sign documents and software for authenticity, as well as ...


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Bitcoin and Pot

I had the pleasure of meeting Marshall Hayner, the founder of the Trees deliver company, drones that deliver medical marijuana. He spoke at CoinCongress in San Francisco, about how his service relates to bitcoin. There’s one key issue Marshall has expressed about drones: it’s still unclear how the government will effectively regulate the air space and what system will be established so that drone collisions do not occur. If there are hundreds of ...


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The second report is out and can also be found here:http://www.benzinga.com/news/15/08/5779058/bitcoin-flash-crashed-this-week

Japan Is Over Its Bitcoin Woes

Eighteen months have passed since Mt Gox, the infamous bitcoin exchange based in Tokyo, filed for Bankruptcy. This is overwhelmingly considered to be the prime factor to herald the onset of a bearish trend in Japanese bitcoin sentiment for over a year.

Recently, this sentiment only got worse for Bitcoin in Japan when Mark Karpeles, former CEO of Mt Gox was arrested for allegedly stealing funds and adding them to his personal account from one of the many Mt Gox exchange bitcoin wallets.

This was followed by another painful stroke as the Tokyo ...

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Is Bitcoin going to collapse tomorrow if we do not immediately address the block size increase issue?

No. No, of course not. But the fervor surrounding this debate is understandable, even warranted, because we are talking about a technology and an international movement that has never been attempted before. The future of Bitcoin holds so much potential to change people’s lives (even to change history) that we all feel the pressure to get it right. That pressure generates a lot of impassioned argument.

So let’s cut through the hyperbole. Let’s examine the actual arguments for and against a block size increase.

A little background before we dive in. The first thing to note is that, as originally designed, bitcoin had no block size limit. That meant that the vision was for a network that could scale infinitely and process hundreds of gigabytes of information all over the globe.


See the arguments for and against the block size increase...

Thanks. Next one is out on Tuesday

We are now publishing the Bitcoin Trading Intelligence report on TradingView as well. Next weeks report will be published there on the first day itself. Thank you for the feedback so far. Look forward to our next report.

Best,

Deepak (LinkedIn)
Gavin (LinkedIn)
Amith (LinkedIn)

Thank you. We know about some grammar issues and these will be fixed soon.

1) $0
2) For a handful of traders, we had a mailing list going on, but now teamed up with IHB to publish online.
3) Pretty good. Actually working with a few traders who will verify trades. But that's later on

This is the first of many to come.

It has to be a slow play though. In India there are no buyers for the bitcoin yet.

Visa joins firms betting on technology behind Bitcoin. The move comes at a time when banks around the world are looking at ways to use the technology to make transactions more efficient and secure.

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Hope all is well guys. Thank you for the feedback on our last Bitcoin Trading Intelligence newsletter. Hope this one addresses some of those points. Feedback and any other comments are welcome. If you like this and want more, you can now reserve your spot in our Bitcoin Trading Intelligence platform.

Note on the Flash Crash:

"The emotion in the room during that flash crash was clearly palpable. I knew people were being hurt badly because it came with shrieks, screams and then deathly silence -- only to have those on the right side of the trade reveling in the misery of others. That is the life a trader though -- we are a very vindictive bunch." BTCVIX

On August 18th th**e Bitcoin market experienced a flash crash on a number of exchanges, led by Bitfinex. It appears, according to swap data there was a number of large positions which closed in tandem causing a whipsaw effect, accelerated by market panic. Thankfully it does appear this was an isolated issue, and not a fundamental break down of the market. The price touched $160s on Bitfinex, and has since recovered to the $230 region, signaling this may have been entirely a result of an issue with an exchange or exchanges. We’ll know more in the coming days, but at this time we believe this to be the case. We’ve selected Bitstamp for our charts, as it did not have as drastic a reaction which can affect technical analysis.

Fundamental Analysis:

The entire setup of the market is clouded with bearish sentiment amplified the impacts of the BitLicense and the news of the first Bitcoin-XT Block being mined. Here is a review of what has happened fundamentally in the market over the past week and a half. On a global scale, the acceptance of Bitcoin in many countries has been on the rise as weaker economies are evidently turning to cryptocurrencies as their exit option, indicated by the increase in the trading volumes of Latin American Countries. The high inflation rate and unstable economy in countries like Argentina and Brazil have caused a massive surge in the trading volumes of Bitcoins in Latin America increasing more than 120%. This might be a reverberation from the increased number of newly registered users in Greece over the past few weeks which increased by 600%. In Europe, despite Germany’s recent negative press about Greek bailout, Berlin remains one of the major attractions for Venture Capitalists, with Bitcoin Startups and the overall ecosystem continuing to prosper. With more than $2.2 Billion invested in startups in Germany and a considerable percentage of them being Bitcoin startups, the future of cryptocurrency in Germany looks promising.
   
The surprise “one off depreciation” of the Yuan by the People’s Bank of China early in the week led to price divergences and limited bull runs in USD and CNY exchanges as people invested with Yuan saw the Bitcoin market as a good hedging opportunity. Adding to the already strengthening sentiment of growing Venture Capital investments in bitcoin, Japanese exchange ‘bitFlyer’ was able to raise $4 million for their next round of funding, despite the ripples caused by the arrest of Mark Karpeles, former CEO of Mt Gox earlier this month. Bitcoin got a boost from more traditional finance firm PricewaterhouseCooper’s which promoted the use of Bitcoin and Blockchain Technologies for its clients. The report stated categorically that Cryptocurrencies open the door for revolutionary technological possibilities and would disrupt the existing financial Industry in a positive way. With things going awry after the BitLicense debacle, the long awaited Gemini Exchange is a ray of hope for the residents of New York with the Winklevoss twins filing the paperwork for operating an exchange in New York in accordance with the new policies.

Edward Snowden’s statements about bitcoin, particularly saying that the technology is inherently flawed citing the ‘51 % mining attack’ as a structural weakness problem created negative sentiment in mainstream press. On the positive side, he added that the basic principles of systems based on decentralized tokenization models might continually provide more value to society. In the midst of the negative mainstream sentiment Bitcoin XT released their completed version of the software on the 15th of August. Unfortunately, many mainstream articles surfaced calling the first Bitcoin-XT block meaning Bitcoin has forked. On one hand it is a vote for the change in protocol, but the network, almost exclusively, continue to run on the core implementation. Predictions say the full switch could happen mid-2016, but the exaggerated news has had a short term impact on the mainstream perception of Bitcoin and potentially the market.

While things were already looking tight because of BitLicense, The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), has issued a new ruling stating startups seeking to tokenize commodities for Blockchain based trading have to be licensed in all the 50 states. On the heels of new regulation, SABR, a New York Based startup has just raised one million dollars to fulfill its goal of providing law enforcement with a view beneath the surface of multiple block chains. SABR aims to detect and prevent bitcoin and other digital currencies being used for illicit purposes. How these developments in regulation and security will help or harm the bitcoin community will be seen in due time.

Technical Analysis:

Long Term:

On a weekly scale, the market has been predominantly sideways with choppy moves from 255-271, until finally completing the bearish arc of the sideways swing by breaking the support zone around 250 and trading at 220 levels. The Bollinger bands in the weekly chart still remain parallel showing that the market is in the expected zone and judging by the regression lines, is setting up for a bull trend after consolidation.
On a long term scale, taking a position right now for a long term trade would be premature as the sentiment in the market is not clear. The RSI is approaching the oversold region while the MACD just took a bearish turn without crossing the zero line. The proper indication for setting up long term trades would be reading the setup of the market in terms of 5 SMA and Bollinger bands. As soon as both Bollinger Bands and the 5 SMA become trending in the upward direction after significant consolidation, entering into trades with a long term plan is more justified. Proper entry points for such trades would be around the 217 region with stops below 214. If the market is trending, possible exit points could be 255, 271 and 317.

If the market breaks to the downside, breaking the support zone at 217, weekly lower Bollinger band and previous swing lows are possible targets.



Midterm:

If we look at the daily chart, the break of the zone of support around 250-255 signaled move in the market that has the run the price down to 221. The reversal was very quick with less volume, showing that the 217-220 zone is a good support zone which can be tested soon because of the still trending bearish setup in the daily chart. With the Bollinger bands and SMA’s pointing downwards, the setup is going to remain bearish for some time until a base of consolidation is formed. The descending triangle as shown in the daily chart between the downward trendline and support line at 217 might result in higher volumes being traded in the coming days. In which direction the break out would be or the setup would change will depend on how the market approaches the vertex of the triangle. The MACD is showing a bearish signal in the short term and the RSI crossed 30 into the oversold region but is now coming close to leaving the oversold region. In the medium term, it appears that it is going to be bearish/sideways for some time.

A trade setup shorting at the 5 SMA cross and looking for positions on the retracements was a good opportunity during the sell off.


 
Short term:

The market crashed by a huge percentage on Tuesday when the trading price of Bitcoin dropping to the 160s on some exchanges, although Bitstamp did not have as severe a reaction. Though it was immediately backed by a green retracement candle, the sentiment is predominantly bearish even in the 240 minute chart with little corrections. The market is expected to trade in this range for some time before either consolidating and going for a reversal or crashing down further. Some of the good trades in this range would be picking longs on the support level until the market closes in on the triangle as shown on the daily chart. Shorting around the lower Bollinger band, and 5 SMA with expectation of a crash down back to the 217 levels could also be profitable, although these trades have to be done with a tight stop loss.



Sentiment Analysis:

The overall sentiment of the market has continued bearish with BitLicense and “Bitcoin Forking” leading the way. However, the sentiment on the banking front is picking up speed with Visa deploying a block chain research team on the 12th August in Bangalore to study the possible applications of the Blockchain. Deutsche Bank has recently backed Blockchain Technology and bitcoins by making some positive statements about how bitcoins hold the key for the future of financial services. Another positive enforcer to the sentiment is Blockchain.info has exceeded 4 million users. With companies like BitX and ecoins making payment through bitcoins via debit cards infrastructure possible, further research to adapt bitcoin to the existing financial system and other applications seems more likely. Continued adoption by European merchants and an Indonesian crowd funding platform accepting bitcoins, gives hope that bitcoin is slowly gaining a grip on the traditional financial world. It’s still unsure about how the forking news will affect the price of Bitcoin. Major exchanges like Bitfinex have said the major exchanges will come together in agreement if a major shift happens, as there main concern is supporting as many customers as possible.

Developments in Blockchain:

The Blockchain is may play a key role in the Music Industry. Revelator builds software that allows artists and record labels to manage, track and market their music all from one application. The company sees the blockchain as an opportunity to simplify music rights, which remain complicated and difficult to verify, with a new Intellectual Property (IP) management system that will allow artists to register their works on an immutable ledger. They have partnered with Colu for this project.

On another front, ItBit has revealed details about the Bankchain project, a private consensus based ledger system aimed at providing enterprise financial solutions. With this, the New York based exchange has joined other Blockchain firms which are trying to seek the attention of banks that want to utilize the efficiencies of distributed Blockchain technology with private blockchains.

Technocorner:

The past week and a half has majorly been a week of innovation where ‘ecoin’ and ‘BitX’ have launched Hybrid debit cards. These debit cards are aimed to facilitate interchangeable payments in bitcoins or fiat currencies. ecoin plans to merge the bitcoin infrastructure with the existing financial climate, by taking a widely accepted form of payment like debit cards and combining it with Bitcoin to create a new Hybrid Cryptocurrency debit card. BitX is working on technology so users can also spend bitcoin offline without any internet connection. BitX and ZAZOO have announced this partnership that enable BitX users to use VCpay which works as an alternative for plastic cards.

Another interesting development is the BitcoinAlert Project, with the BitcoinAlert app that analyzes the prices historically and alerts about prices to buy or sell bitcoins. But the Technological development that trumped everything else this week would have to be ‘Filament’. Filament has raised $5 million in series A funding led by Bullpen capital, Verizon Ventures and Samsung Ventures.  Filament is a decentralized IoT software stack that uses the bitcoin blockchain to enable devices to hold unique identities on a public ledger. By creating a smart device directory, Filament's IoT devices will be able to securely communicate, execute smart contracts and send microtransactions.


Bitcoin Trading Intelligence Archives

• August 10th, 2015 Report