All of us who involved into Bitcoin stream are positive about it's bright future .This is a kind of redistribution of financial resources.
And let's take a look . Trend of the cryptocurrency is high in contries where confidence in the monetary authorities is seriously undermined and there are problems with the economic and political situation. In my opinion, such constitute the majority. The fact should bring more like-minded people and make Bitcoine price higher . Good surprise, isn't it ?
How do you explain popularity in the US then? The dollar by no means is a currency that nobody has confidence in. The whole world recognizes the value of the dollar. So that's clearly not driving interest in Bitcoin in the US. In fact, I think you have the correlation reversed- it's only because people in the US are economically confident enough to speculate on a risky asset like Bitcoin that Bitcoin has any value at all. If the economy was in shambles and people were struggling to survive, nobody would be wasting money on Bitcoin. It's only because the dollar has created widespread economic prosperity that people have enough money to take a flyer on a speculative asset in hopes of increasing their wealth. I generally keep to the same opinion. When you are wealthy and have plenty of money - I'm talking on average here - you can play with risky assets like Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. However, we shouldn't completely rule out the other end of the stick. When you live in a country like Venezuela - I'm speculating here - with your national currency going off the cliff, Bitcoin may be a real life savior for you. |
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Maybe due to economic collapse which could possibly bring devastation to fiats, they might convert their money to BTC to protect their wealth which, in return, would drive its price up. Though, on the other hand, it can be that they might withdraw their investment to fuel their survival prowess or exchange it to some solid investment like gold maybe? Not so sure about that. One thing is for sure, the population would greatly be decreased if a great natural disaster or big wars happen.
People usually run away from speculative assets when bad things start happening, be it a natural disaster like a war - well, sort of - or more like an economic crisis or collapse. But I agree that Bitcoin may in fact be different from other speculative assets due to its universal nature. If things go bad economically in some small country, the population there may be willing to pick up crypto as a safe haven asset like it happened in Venezuela. |
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It is still a question unanswered as to what could have caused the skyrocketing within that short period, but one way or the other, it is a volatile market and we just have to live with some of these quick fluctuations. Nevertheless, we still have a long time to confirm before we know if we are in a bull market or not.
I'm not sure what you mean by "it is still a question unanswered". The price went up because someone had been buying appreciable amounts of BTC across the market in a short while. I think it is possible to track down at which exchange the surge started off. I expect it to be one of the largest Bitcoin exchanges - like Bitfinex, for example. It is impossible to know who exactly was buying up - unless you are that dude. But do you really want to know that apart from sheer curiosity and what are you going to do with that knowledge anyway? |
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A tremendous increase occurred over the past few days, I am increasingly optimistic that the Bitcoin price could reach a much higher level. I've seen this as an improvement, where bitcoin prices have been spared from stable prices that have lasted long enough. A lot of positive news has made bitcoin prices rise, this is a way to make trust in Bitcoin increasing. We need change and change to something much more in the way that Bitcoin views become the key to everything that happens today.
Myself, I wouldn't call that a tremendous increase. It may be tremendous for one day - and it likely is, but we need such or similar increases for at least a week every day - two weeks would be even better. Right now Bitcoin seems to be trading sideways, and it is not unlikely that it will start to slide down again. And then all recent growth will be brought to naught. This will prove that it was an one-off event due to a big investor shelling out on a handful of bitcoins. |
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But False Hopelessness is way different from staying positive. I'll give you a scenario you are inside a burning house where you are near from the exit. Will you wait for the firefighters to save you or you can save yourself right away just by going out your front door? See that staying positive in the wrong scenario could place you in a wrong position and I don't think you want to be trap in a burning house waiting for help to arrive.
I don't find a lot of logic in your example and reasoning alike. In fact, I'm really curious if you actually don't understand my point. If you are caught in a burning house and you are hopeless, which means being in a state of utter despair - synonymous with being in the most negative state of mind ever possible, you won't be searching for an exit since it is all over for you from your own point of view. The whole idea of staying positive is that it gives you strength and power to look for a way out. That's why your example in real life would actually prove my point. In other words, no matter how bad your circumstances might be staying positive is the optimal strategy, if not overall the best one. Who has more chances to survive, the one who fights and hopes to pull through or the one who succumbs and gives up any hope? It's not that hard to understand really. |
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I expected that you would say exactly that. The Mt. Gox debacle is also history now. The price had gone down more than 5 times back in the day, so why not talk about that as well? And let's hope it is actually history by now. Other than that, I for one don't see much sense in so wild speculations. If it gives you some comfort, then more power to you, of course, but don't forget that before we reach 70k tomorrow or even 70M in a couple years for that matter, we still should break plenty of resistance which sits at or around some measly 10k right now.
So basically you just don't want other people to talk about predictions. Why even bother reading and commenting on posts about predictions? You don't like them, just ignore them. Most people like predicting things so its a fun thing discuss. As I didn't make a prediction thread about how far the price is going to go down....because that JUST happened. There's nothing to predict there. People were predicting how far it would go down the past few months. And now that is history too, so there is nothing to predict in that regards. Seriously, if you don't like reading about people talking about the future of bitcoin's price, just don't bother reading it. There's no reason to comment just to complain about how you don't like predictions. It is not a prediction, it is a wild speculation bordering on wishful thinking as I already said. And yes, I don't want people to talk about that like that as there are a lot of newbies around here who can take these talks seriously and then suffer severe losses just because someone was kinda predicting Bitcoin prices of 70k at bitcointalk. You may indeed say that everyone for himself after all but that you should have said in the OP as a sort of disclaimer. And while I basically agree with this last point, it is not what Bitcoin needs right now. It doesn't need more losers. |
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My prediction:
$20k+ -> $70k
Dec 2018 -> Aug 2019
We should first break out of 10k before ever talking about reaching figures like $70k by August, 2019, or whenever. Such long-term predictions are mostly meaningless as they look more like wishful thinking and day dreaming without any evidence or logic supporting them. Right now we will certainly see huge resistance at 10k-12k levels, and it will be a really tough milestone on our way back to the moon. I don't see why. Why can't we talk about the next bull run? No reason to keep our predictions to just what is going to happen in the next few months. Where's the fun in that?? It's not day dreaming, was the rise from 1 cent to $20k was also a day dream? Nope that's history now. My question specifically asks about the next bull run, $10k-$12k has nothing to do with that. I expected that you would say exactly that. The Mt. Gox debacle is also history now. The price had gone down more than 5 times back in the day, so why not talk about that as well? And let's hope it is actually history by now. Other than that, I for one don't see much sense in so wild speculations. If it gives you some comfort, then more power to you, of course, but don't forget that before we reach 70k tomorrow or even 70M in a couple years for that matter, we still should break plenty of resistance which sits at or around some measly 10k right now. |
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My prediction:
$20k+ -> $70k
Dec 2018 -> Aug 2019
We should first break out of 10k before ever talking about reaching figures like $70k by August, 2019, or whenever. Such long-term predictions are mostly meaningless as they look more like wishful thinking and day dreaming without any evidence or logic supporting them. Right now we will certainly see huge resistance at 10k-12k levels, and it will be a really tough milestone on our way back to the moon. |
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No I don't agree with this at all. If Bitcoin is in a general decline there is no point in putting your hands over your ears and saying to the moon. 1m by the end of the year. It's just not sensible.
So what do you disagree with? Did you read the OP at all since it looks like you didn't? It is not about closing your eyes and praying in silence, not in the least. On the contrary, it is about being proactive and taking steps that will lead you toward better overall trading experience, maybe toward earning profit or at least breaking even if you feel like it is not your cup of tea and you don't want to play this game again. |
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With this sequence of unexpected pumps, I don't see in any way that bitcoin would not reach another ATH this year. (even it dump back after this low surge pump)
That's unlikely unless someone really big chooses to test waters with crypto. But that's even less likely as the wealthiest investors like Buffett and Soros have already expressed their concerns about the long-term viability and success of cryptocurrencies. On the other hand, there are rumors about the Persian Gulf potentates and moneybags being interested in Bitcoin now that it has been declared compliant with Sharia. Don't know how it is going to play out, though. Hmmm. That's sounds interesting, but I do believed that they are already in the crypto investment since last year specially around the peak last December. But just maybe the push has something to do with Muslim announcing bitcoin as complaint and not against their religion. But it looks like we are trading sideways now and there are no more money going into the market as of the moment as the price keeps fluctuating in the $7800-$8000 range. Anyways, we should celebrate this early but continue to observe and see how everything pans out. In fact, it doesn't look like that at all. I mean, no longer. We were trading in a narrow range between 6.6k and 7.3k for quite some time but we have already broken out of that. Right now Bitcoin price is trading around 8.3k, and there is a possibility and it is definitely not negligible that Bitcoin will continue to rise. How much it will rise is another question but myself, I see no particular issues with Bitcoin rising up to 10k at this point. |
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With this sequence of unexpected pumps, I don't see in any way that bitcoin would not reach another ATH this year. (even it dump back after this low surge pump)
That's unlikely unless someone really big chooses to test waters with crypto. But that's even less likely as the wealthiest investors like Buffett and Soros have already expressed their concerns about the long-term viability and success of cryptocurrencies. On the other hand, there are rumors about the Persian Gulf potentates and moneybags being interested in Bitcoin now that it has been declared compliant with Sharia. Don't know how it is going to play out, though. you are surprised that crypto-currencies will be dealt with even by Muslims? They are not inconsistent with the laws of cryptography and therefore for each person will be available crypto currency, despite belonging to the Sharia. Actually, I'm not surprised, I'm just afraid if this "acceptance" by the Sharia law won't be used as yet another excuse for Western governments to crack down on Bitcoin all over again as they come up with another contrived and ridiculous reason to attack crypto as a means for "terrorism financing" by Muslims. Anyway, quite a few people will be happy to see big money entering the cryptoscene now. |
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I always believe in the power of positive thinking because I have witness it not only in crypto but in other aspects of life. If you have problems then you will not be able to solve it by just sulking and accepting the fact that you cannot solve it. There would always be a way if you remain positive. In crypto, if you just continue to trade then you would have learn more and even if your portfolio is at a loss then maybe after some time , you will be able to get back your losses by trading slowly.
Yep, that's exactly the point I'm trying to get across here. Staying on the bright side and having a positive outlook is not about forgetting about your problems as it is about being able to solve them. In other words, if you want to solve your problems, you should be thinking positively. You can't effectively and efficiently solve them if you on the downside. If you are not thinking positively, then you should change your attitude if you are really looking for a solution. Obviously, trading is just one aspect of life where this approach is applicable. However, it is likely the one aspect where it is most applicable as all your losses are perfectly recoverable - at least, with Bitcoin. Gave you the last sMerit I had. |
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With this sequence of unexpected pumps, I don't see in any way that bitcoin would not reach another ATH this year. (even it dump back after this low surge pump)
That's unlikely unless someone really big chooses to test waters with crypto. But that's even less likely as the wealthiest investors like Buffett and Soros have already expressed their concerns about the long-term viability and success of cryptocurrencies. On the other hand, there are rumors about the Persian Gulf potentates and moneybags being interested in Bitcoin now that it has been declared compliant with Sharia. Don't know how it is going to play out, though. |
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After staying at $6,800 for quite a time, Bitcoin price takes off more than 1,000 USD breaking the resistance line. Still, I don't think this would last and BTC price will eventually sink to even lower than its previous price of $6,800. What about you? Tell me what is on your mind now? Will it sink or will it rise?  It looks like it was like a bull whale buying up bitcoins. But as there are bull whales buying bitcoins, there are also bear whales selling them. The effect of a Mt. Gox bear whale selling his coins we all experienced not so long ago. So the price could go down as fast as it rose, and it could even lower at that. The bottom line is that there is a lot of randomness in today's market, and given the low trading volumes most of the time recently, it is not that hard to move the price for a whale or semi-whale in the desired direction. |
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My other brother bought at ~$2700, sold half of that for I guess $3xxx during the crash from $5000 to $3000. I told him he was crazy and he absolutely should not have done that. And of course if he waited just a few months he could have sold at $10k or $15k of $19k. He put in so little money relative to what they have (he just put in $2500 to buy .89 BTC) that the risk of losing that a couple thousand dollars when you have a good career is really not a risk at all, but the upside if you hold is maybe you sell in a few years and could possibly make $50k or $100k or more (or he could have sold late last year and made over $10k even after taxes for a tiny 6 month investment). So why did he sell half his BTC, worried that he was going to lose all of a few hundred dollars, and took the out of gaining a few hundred dollars, pure emotion of "oh my god my investment is dropping i better sell!"
First rule of bitcoin: never listen to your emotions.
And of course I've violated that rule plenty of times, especially during my first bitcoin stint back in 2013/2014, and it pretty much always results in losing money or losing bitcoin.
We often act without being completely aware of what we are doing. Yes, it may sound a little strange, but it is in fact so. Most of the time we act on autopilot without thinking twice or even once, while our actions are based on our past experiences. Thereby we repeat our past over and over again. Our emotions play a major role in this because when acting in default mode, our actions are fully determined by what we feel, not by what we think or find rational or reasonable. As explained in the OP (or somewhere in the thread), thinking is a conscious effort driven by awareness, whereas behavior driven by emotions is the opposite of that. |
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The key is staying positive on the long term outlook. My brother sold half his bitcoin a month or two ago because he said he didn't wanna stress over it. I told him that was very stupid. He only had a bit over 1 bitcoin anyways, so even if he lost all the money its not like he'll miss it in the long run, but if he had stayed positive he might be sitting on well over $100k in a few years. Just gotta keep a positive long term outlook. Sure it sucks getting trades stuck for a few months or watching your portfolio go down for a few months. But if you wait long enough 99% change you'll be making lots of money again in the relatively near future.
Staying positive may be good if you wanted to focus on long-term investments - in fact it looks like the only option to stay just sane in the long run - but this is not what I wanted to say in OP. It is not about talking yourself into doing nothing for a couple of years in a less stressful way. Quite the contrary, my whole point was about carrying out a well-thought-out plan how to get out of losses if you were unlucky to buy at December highs. I think your mentality going into a highly volatile investment like Bitcoin has to be "hey there may be times when I'm way down on my investment but I believe in it long term and I only put in what I can afford to keep in there for a long time so I don't care about a market crash, I can just wait". If you don't have that mentality and strategy then you shouldn't be investing in Bitcoin. That's how you stay positive no matter what the price. I don't think it works in practice. Indeed, if you invested a relatively small amount of money (relative to your income, of course), then you kinda have this mentality right away. But even in that case it is not guaranteed as the other poster justly noted. But if you invested in Bitcoin all your lifetime savings, actually having this mentality would be bordering on insanity. Basically, what I talking about here is a technique for setting yourself up when you can act rationally. It is definitely not about making you into a Bitcoin holding zombie. |
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The key is staying positive on the long term outlook. My brother sold half his bitcoin a month or two ago because he said he didn't wanna stress over it. I told him that was very stupid. He only had a bit over 1 bitcoin anyways, so even if he lost all the money its not like he'll miss it in the long run, but if he had stayed positive he might be sitting on well over $100k in a few years. Just gotta keep a positive long term outlook. Sure it sucks getting trades stuck for a few months or watching your portfolio go down for a few months. But if you wait long enough 99% change you'll be making lots of money again in the relatively near future.
Staying positive may be good if you wanted to focus on long-term investments - in fact it looks like the only option to stay just sane in the long run - but this is not what I wanted to say in OP. It is not about talking yourself into doing nothing for a couple of years in a less stressful way. Quite the contrary, my whole point was about carrying out a well-thought-out plan how to get out of losses if you were unlucky to buy at December highs. |
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Thank god no one mentioned the manipulation of the whales.
This conspiracy theory is in the forum for quite some time now but no one can provide a single evidence that they are really manipulating the market price.
It is not a conspiracy theory, it is a reality, well, sort of, though I agree that the whales are not likely to be manipulating the price in the way most people think. They are just selling huge amounts of bitcoins - like it happened with the Mt. Gox coins, or buying likely as many coins occasionally. Obviously, such deals would lead to severe price swings which could be construed as price manipulation but I don't think it is. They are just doing what we all do, though the impact of their actions is felt by everyone in the market of course. |
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This is not about being blind and rushing into things. This is about being in a state where you can make decisions. Compare that to a state in which you can only sit and wait. In other words, you can be positive while remaining a realist and overall cold-blooded when you make your trading decisions. I see no conflict or contradiction here. In fact, being realistic already assumes having a positive attitude.
"This is about being in a state where you can make decisions." That's what I've meant with rushing into things, making rational decisions depending on the way of your thinking (pessimistic, optimistic). No, this is some deeper philosophy that I will not be getting into, but being realistic doesn't have to do anything with being pessimistic or optimistic. In a bad situation, you can be a pessimist and think that it could not get worse, an optimist that it will get better and a realist where you see the situation how it actually is. I have to disagree. Indeed, if you trade by numbers and charts alone, and can actually force yourself to stick to your trading style at all times, then that might be the case. However, if you make rational decisions, they will remain rational in any coordinate system - low or high mood, the same as based on numbers. The problem is it is by far harder to remain rational when everything looks bleak to you because you are already not rational in your thinking. Overall optimistic outlook and positive mindset is the fuel for your rational reasoning engine. There is no middle ground for a realist there because you with human nature. When you think like you are in the neutral territory, in a nowhere land, you are already pessimistic. On the other hand, when you think you are most realistic, you are actually in a positive state of mind. Anyway, I don't see a single reason why you would not want to delve into this thing. It would be an interesting discussion. |
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I don't think we would go beyond $5,000 except the mtgox trustee sell in huge number they holding! The supplies is drying up as those that buy in December, January, February and have refused to sell because their are expecting the price to recover and if possible make profit from their purchase.
Im stands into bitcoin can slowly recover this time but as the usual happen the unstable market is always here. Yes I think more needed to buy some bitcoin. More are actually expecting the price to recover however, it will not going further to $5k. of course a very pleasant situation on the market, that Bitcoin does not fall below 6000 dollars. I watched that it reaches the mark of 7000 dollars, but something keeps it and does not let it go higher. I hope that this growth trend will continue and we will soon see a good flight. Selling pressure keeps Bitcoin from rising any further than somewhat above $7000. I don't believe that Bitcoin will go down substantially below $6000 but if things keep going this direction, the prices will likely continue to plummet in the coming weeks. With Bitcoin in particular and crypto in general there is no middle ground. It can't stay long at a certain price. If it fails to rise, then it will go down. It is kind of a given. |
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