 Show Posts
|
|
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 »
|
|
Risto, what is your take today on exponential trendline of btc? If history repeats then IMO 30k+ is highly probable this cycle.
|
|
|
|
At present, I'd invest in:
BTC
ETH
XMR
DAGcoin
Mark (my new project, coming up this year)
About the same in each..
Isnt a DAGcoin a scam coin??? One of the biggest scam artist of the country runs this thing. Since when does cryptocurrencies give BONUSES for references??? Smells really fishy to me. |
|
|
|
|
most people do not have any idea about "fair value". I would bet on seeing tons of weak hands selling too early and (maybe even buying back afterwards) If Sir Isac Newton did during south sea bubble why would not average Joe? Usually people get too late to the party. I guess another way to confirm the current value of network would be see historical data of nr. of transactions vs btc price. To answer your question to calculate ATH would be e powered by 1.87 times X todays expected price
|
|
|
|
If you like this, please consider donating to 1GdBAuFihJVxypysnkF7jKwcKAoAn8dbvg
Although we have an USD ATH, BETI is still under -0.25.
Today, a 0 BETI means $4561.38. Still $1000 to go.
why is it that I start to salivate when I read your posts of this thread...  will use BETI to find out when to sell @next peak. please keep updating more regular.... this is great, thanks. I will donate! +1 I was just in the progress of constructing my own charts for timing the top as well. It turns it is much more time consuming than I initially thought . Why the hell would I even need to do that if we have such quality thread. Jl2012 consider those mBTCs flying your way if we go above +1.5. It seems there is some resistance at -0.25 and 0.00. Afterwards this bull should be going with flying colors. Assuming it takes at least another two months min. tho reach the top it gives us another 20% on top of todays expected price. Hitting ATH would mean 33k USD, a little more conservative +1.5 would give us 25K USD. |
|
|
|
hi SSS plan sounds reasonable for a person who does not like taking risks which i am not I guess what I am trying to figure out at what price i want to start raking and what kind of percentage, calculating ones percentage of portfolio makes sense for a person who has outstanding wealth which again i do not . Thanks for the link, good insights in there. |
|
|
|
Thank you sir for grossly undervalued service of yours! I have been subscribing to your posts for years now. This this is the last proper thread to my knowledge that has not died out. I really valued Stephen Reed`s and rpietila`s threads as well. I have been dwelling on the idea of using marketcap instead of btc price itself for these models. Therefore the price would be inflation adjusted because the supply of the currency has changed. Or is it already "priced in" by the market i would imagine?? Do you guys (rpietila) have any ideas how to make most out of this bull run in terms of gaining more btc/diversifying portfolio in this bull run aka "how to know if we have hit the top for this runup"? I think rpietila had some insights about having six consecutive weeks green candles and/or 30 percent daily increase? as a indicator. I know this is near impossible to work out but for someone who has 100 % percent of "wealth" invested in btc it provides numerous possibilities for deleveraging one`s portfolio. |
|
|
|
Risto, how does this all MtGox scam affect the trendline and price predictions? How Bots Manipulated The Price Of Bitcoin Through "Massive Fraudulent Trading Activity" At MtGox http://www.zerohedge.com/node/488930 |
|
|
|
November 29, 2013 peak at $1163 - doubling from $581 in 13 days.
The November peak is interesting because the rally to $758 on November 18, doubled from $359 in 6 days. I therefore thought that $758 was the peak, but the correction down from $758 was only to $379 which did not appear deep enough to me and other observers that day.
I suspect that the next bubble, being widely anticipated will have one or more dramatic pre-peak spikes that double in about a week.
I will combine the doubling time indicator with a threshold from the Log10 Delta From Trend chart when predicting the next peak.
This coincides with my thinking. I actually went bearish and sold at the Nov 18 peak last year, which was premature but excusable in light of the doubling principle. This time I will try to follow the Log10 delta more closely and also try to trade the volatility should that happen. I think now that 3000 is a realistic lower limit for any selling, and I don't intend to trade the uptrend from here on. My earlier bold prediction (when we were at 420) was 650 by the end of June. Considering that we are only in the beginning of June and that level is already tested, I don't think it does any harm to the uptrend if we stay here for several more weeks. Breaching 500 in anything except a flashcrash would be worrying, but I regard the chances for that happening as low (20%). Just make sure you guys keep us updated!  |
|
|
|
..If BTC is doing its yearly wave, I can capture maybe 30% of the downtrend with 30% of my position, resulting in a 13% gain in my holdings...
Why so conservative in your estimations? The previous bubbles have had at least 3 times retracement from the top. Catching at least 50 percent wouldnt be that much of a problem? |
|
|
|
I just wanted to tell you that I am finalizing the purchase of Malla Manor this week, and we will have a party there starting Friday.  Malla will be (probably) the first high-class Bitcoin retreat centre in the world. 100% owned by me, it offers 5000 sqm floor area (some under renovation) and currently 127 acres of land. The property is in the middle of beautiful countryside in Estonia, just 1 hour from Tallinn airport. Very impressive! I've been watching your thread for a long time although I haven't been active on this forum. I'm sad to hear that your thinking about leaving the forum, so I just want to thank you for the quality of the posts that you have provided and wish you the best. +1 |
|
|
|
Want to bet for a box of cigars that it won't go below $500 this year? ( edit: Mt.Gox price )
This year? If it isnt going below this year, then probably it never is. |
|
|
|
Hey rpietila. How is your sale in the 600s doing? Do you still intend to turn a profit on it?
Either way I make a profit. If it goes to 400, I make more coins, if it doesn't, I make more dollars.* *Compared to the average dishoarding schedule. Besides I already made that dip by selling 900, buying back 500. Everything else is extra. Has your confidence in 500ish boosted in the last days? It seems that right now we are following the April`s crash pattern. Lowest point maybe mid Feb.? |
|
|
|
|
What kind of influence might Overstock have on the price short/mid-term?
|
|
|
|
Not really. Not sure what you are getting at as I don't see any "bear market" coming based on the search/interest fundamentals, or in the technical. We may see some mid-term price correction to the mean trend, but the growth fundamentals are very solid, and rising exponentially as expected. For an interesting twist on what you were looking at, take a look at where the growth in search interest is happening at the moment (check the regional section). Not for "Bitstamp" (not sure why that was your term?), but for "bitcoin". It is exciting to see where the next wave of adoption may happen or is already happening. http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=Bitcoin&date=today%203-m&cmpt=qActually i meant the same thing. Correction to near trendline mid-term . Why i chose bitstamp was that during media coverage the search for bitcoin increases more than for exchanges, because not everybody is going to buy. As estonian, i am very happy to see that Estonia is nr.1 country. It proves that we are one of the leading IT countries and maybe this our way to wealth. Currently the next big thing coming from us is Transferwise. Its fast success shows that there is need for bitcoin. |
|
|
|
OP updated to the best chart (by tonico).
I did some very interesting analysis re:the similarities of relative overvaluation in April and now. In April we were "only" about 3.2x the then current trendline when the bubble popped.
Now the high value has been similarly 3.3x (at ATH).
If the bubbles compare, expect $400s to be visited not only briefly but repeatedly.
Before that, what might be the top? I am totally noob in this ,but doesnt the media and positivie news and etc. affect the trendline? Why no matter what the price has to meet the trendline? |
|
|
|
|
Can someone with more knowledge confirm that?
|
|
|
|
I think i mixed brain and paper when making wallets, now they are 99 percent gone i think  |
|
|
|
|
