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1  Economy / Gambling / Re: bustabit.com -- The Social Gambling Game on: October 13, 2017, 09:52:34 PM
i really dont like any ''luck games'' but this one really catched me badly..im glad i didint deposited huge amount, now i totally understand pokie addicts..

im stil looking to invest to the bankroll, dev version very easy to understand just waiting an announcement for the v2

btw ethcrash.io, is that one also yours? or someone bought the script? is it trustable?

AFAIK ethcrash.io is independent from BaB but licensed the code. See https://www.bustabit.com/license.txt
2  Economy / Gambling / Re: 🌟🎲🌟 MoneyPot.com on: October 04, 2016, 11:07:51 PM
Actually, I think I see why I'm not seeing them. Someone made a withdrawal a week ago. Funds were sent to our hot wallet and were withdrawn from there. So the addresses you're seeing the coins end up at are not in our possession, just for clarification (the 32 BTC transactions). However, 1F5Xsuy9ZZWcLApoEBBFvnYTbZ4bkKzhcJ is ours (and is where funds were sent for the hot wallet top-up).

Hope that helps clarify things, Smiley.
Who is the owner of MoneyPot? U or RHavar?

I, Dogedigital, and ACoinLLC are as of last December.
So, is it the case that RHavar is no more an owner of MoneyPot?

That's correct. He sold it last Dec: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1249919.0
3  Economy / Gambling / Re: Moneypot just took a huge loss? on: January 30, 2016, 05:26:23 AM
Edit2: I tried reading the Haskell code. (I don't know Haskell. I don't even know how many L's it has):

Code:
table =
  [ ( 65536     / (2^32) , 1 - 121.0 ), ( 749731840 / (2^32) , 1 - 0.5   )
[...]
fun x = sum [ p * log (1 + b * x) | (p,b) <- table ]

It looks like you're using newton's method to maximize the sum of the products - but you're using the payout multipliers from the player's point of view. You need to look at it from the other side. The house never wins 121x. The player's big wins are the house's big losses. We need to calculate each house profit or loss as a multiplier of the amount the house is risking.

No, it's from the house's point of view. Notice the  1 - 121.0 in the second component of the first entry? It takes the stake of 1 into account and subtracts the payout to get the profit (-120) for the house in that case. Sorry I should've normalized the table a bit more.

Edit: Oh I see what you're doing. You're normalizing the stake for the house. Let me ponder about that some more.

Ok, I now believe that you are correct and my initial calculation is invalid. The payouts need indeed be normalized by the house's risk, i.e. the biggest amount the house can lose, which is 120 in this case. So the code isn't faulty per se, but the payout table was.
4  Economy / Gambling / Re: Moneypot just took a huge loss? on: January 30, 2016, 05:01:52 AM
Edit: I should post the equation of the curve I'm plotting so you can check I didn't do anything stupid. I'm looking at the bet 'backwards', ie. from the house's point of view. I am considering the house bet size to be the most it can lose on the bet. So the 'b' for the jackpot is -1 (a profit of -1 times the bet size). 'b' for the 2nd highest win is -46/120 (we only lose 46/120ths as much as we were willing to risk because the highest two payouts are 121 and 47). Etc:

Code:
plot [0.352:0.354] \
      1/65536.0 * log(1 + x * -120/120) + \
     16/65536.0 * log(1 + x *  -46/120) + \
    120/65536.0 * log(1 + x *  -12/120) + \
    560/65536.0 * log(1 + x *   -4/120) + \
   1820/65536.0 * log(1 + x *   -2/120) + \
   4368/65536.0 * log(1 + x * -0.4/120) + \
   8008/65536.0 * log(1 + x *    0/120) + \
  11440/65536.0 * log(1 + x *  0.5/120) + \
  12870/65536.0 * log(1 + x *  0.7/120) + \
  11440/65536.0 * log(1 + x *  0.5/120) + \
   8008/65536.0 * log(1 + x *    0/120) + \
   4368/65536.0 * log(1 + x * -0.4/120) + \
   1820/65536.0 * log(1 + x *   -2/120) + \
    560/65536.0 * log(1 + x *   -4/120) + \
    120/65536.0 * log(1 + x *  -12/120) + \
     16/65536.0 * log(1 + x *  -46/120) + \
      1/65536.0 * log(1 + x * -120/120)   \
title "maximise this"

Why exactly do you divide by 120? The only difference to what I calculated is that factor in the 'b's. So my plot looks like



Code:
plot [0:0.006] [-1e-5:3e-5] \
      1/65536.0 * log(1 + x * -120) + \
     16/65536.0 * log(1 + x *  -46) + \
    120/65536.0 * log(1 + x *  -12) + \
    560/65536.0 * log(1 + x *   -4) + \
   1820/65536.0 * log(1 + x *   -2) + \
   4368/65536.0 * log(1 + x * -0.4) + \
   8008/65536.0 * log(1 + x *    0) + \
  11440/65536.0 * log(1 + x *  0.5) + \
  12870/65536.0 * log(1 + x *  0.7) + \
  11440/65536.0 * log(1 + x *  0.5) + \
   8008/65536.0 * log(1 + x *    0) + \
   4368/65536.0 * log(1 + x * -0.4) + \
   1820/65536.0 * log(1 + x *   -2) + \
    560/65536.0 * log(1 + x *   -4) + \
    120/65536.0 * log(1 + x *  -12) + \
     16/65536.0 * log(1 + x *  -46) + \
      1/65536.0 * log(1 + x * -120)   \
title "maximise this"

Edit2: I tried reading the Haskell code. (I don't know Haskell. I don't even know how many L's it has):

Code:
table =
  [ ( 65536     / (2^32) , 1 - 121.0 ), ( 749731840 / (2^32) , 1 - 0.5   )
[...]
fun x = sum [ p * log (1 + b * x) | (p,b) <- table ]

It looks like you're using newton's method to maximize the sum of the products - but you're using the payout multipliers from the player's point of view. You need to look at it from the other side. The house never wins 121x. The player's big wins are the house's big losses. We need to calculate each house profit or loss as a multiplier of the amount the house is risking.

No, it's from the house's point of view. Notice the  1 - 121.0 in the second component of the first entry? It takes the stake of 1 into account and subtracts the payout to get the profit (-120) for the house in that case. Sorry I should've normalized the table a bit more.

Edit: Oh I see what you're doing. You're normalizing the stake for the house. Let me ponder about that some more.
5  Economy / Gambling / Re: Moneypot just took a huge loss? on: January 30, 2016, 01:08:03 AM
If no one else does it, i'll go through it for that bet and see what it should be

My (untested) calculations:

The kelly for that bet is a staggering 0.353028752 (aka the house should risk 35% of it's bankroll)?! wtf?

Seems rather unintuitive, and likely I made a mistake (and possibly twice, once when first writing the generalize kelly code).

Most of the work is in inverting the bet to be from the houses perspective, so here's what I came up with if it is of any help to anyone:

Well 35% seems rather large, but I believe that was within the range of the ~150-160 BTC bankroll, so bet #18530298 at least doesn't seem fishy that way. What's fishy is the 35%. So I went and calculated the kelly criterion for that  payout table. Here is some Haskell code:

Code:
table :: [(Double, Double)]
table =
  [ ( 65536     / (2^32) , 1 - 121.0 ), ( 749731840 / (2^32) , 1 - 0.5   )
  , ( 1048576   / (2^32) , 1 - 47.0  ), ( 524812288 / (2^32) , 1 - 1.0   )
  , ( 7864320   / (2^32) , 1 - 13.0  ), ( 286261248 / (2^32) , 1 - 1.4   )
  , ( 36700160  / (2^32) , 1 - 5.0   ), ( 119275520 / (2^32) , 1 - 3.0   )
  , ( 119275520 / (2^32) , 1 - 3.0   ), ( 36700160  / (2^32) , 1 - 5.0   )
  , ( 286261248 / (2^32) , 1 - 1.4   ), ( 7864320   / (2^32) , 1 - 13.0  )
  , ( 524812288 / (2^32) , 1 - 1.0   ), ( 1048576   / (2^32) , 1 - 47.0  )
  , ( 749731840 / (2^32) , 1 - 0.5   ), ( 65536     / (2^32) , 1 - 121.0 )
  , ( 843448320 / (2^32) , 1 - 0.3   )
  ]

ps = sum [ p | (p,_) <- table ] -- Should be 1.0

fun, der, der2 :: Double -> Double
fun x = sum [ p * log (1 + b * x) | (p,b) <- table ]
der x = sum [ p * b / (1 + b * x) | (p,b) <- table ]
der2 x = sum [ - b^2 * p / (1 + b * x)^2 | (p,b) <- table ]

newtons :: Double -> Double
newtons x = if abs ((x - x') / x) < 1e-10 then x' else newtons x'
  where x' = x - der x / der2 x

kelly :: String
kelly = show (100 * newtons 0) ++ "%"

Which tells me

Code:
λ> kelly
"0.29419062808971297%"
λ>

To me ~0.29% seems more realistic than 35.3028752%. So assuming the bet was a max bet (which it probably wasn't but was close) the house overbet by a factor of roughly 120x.
6  Economy / Auctions / Re: [Business Auction] BetterBets.io Bitcoin Casino and games. on: December 08, 2015, 03:37:56 PM
Income

BetterBets.io casino has earned at the time of this post 171.91BTC in income since launching on May 19th, of 2015. With a good team this casino could easily maintain a top 3 position in the market. It's been in the #2 most volume sites multiple times.

That 171.91 is revenue as in gross income, right? AFAIK you have a pretty aggressive rake back program which I believe is not included in that figure. In order to maintain the current volume I think the rake is an important factor. But how much is your net income after considering rake back and other expenses?
7  Economy / Gambling / Re: bustabit.com -- The Social Gambling Game (formerly moneypot.com) on: December 05, 2015, 12:03:39 AM
The thing I fail to understand is how the bust odd is derived from the hash that is played at the moment.

I know i`m missing a component/level to understand it and I hope you or anyone else can explain it to me in ELI5 form.

The exact algorithm was describe in the 'provably fair seeding event'. Here it is without additional noise:

The method to convert a game hash, mix it with the picked client seed to a money pot multiplier:

Code:
function crashPointFromHash(serverSeed, clientSeed) {
  function divisible(hash, mod) {
    // We will read in 4 hex at a time, but the first chunk might be a bit smaller
    // So ABCDEFGHIJ should be chunked like  AB CDEF GHIJ
    var val = 0;
    
    var o = hash.length % 4;
    for (var i = o > 0 ? o - 4 : 0; i < hash.length; i += 4) {
      val = ((val << 16) + parseInt(hash.substring(i, i+4), 16)) % mod;
    }

    return val === 0;
  }

  var hash = crypto.createHmac('sha256', serverSeed).update(clientSeed).digest('hex');

  /* In 1 of 101 games the game crashes instantly. */
  if (divisible(hash, 101))
     return 0;

  /* Use the most significant 52-bit from the hash
     to calculate the crash point */
  var h = parseInt(hash.slice(0,52/4),16);
  var e = Math.pow(2,52);

  return Math.floor((100 * e - h) / (e - h));
}

Unfortunately, this isn't exactly ELI5. Here is also the original code that gives more details to the last line. You can also take a look at how the winning probability and the house edge are derived from the above function. The details are in the code of the onsite calculator. If you're really don't feel comfortable reading code, I can try again..
8  Economy / Gambling / Re: MoneyPot.com :: The bitcoin gambling wallet on: November 27, 2015, 02:27:53 PM
Ryan could post a chart with daily active MP users.

I agree again Smiley but would you be so kind and explain us why he should do this? I am really interested in your opinion


I think it's a far better metric for the popularity / activity on the site than overall user registrations. You can imagine a regular player that registers a new account for every gambling session to hide his identity or because he doesn't understand what provably fair is and succumbs to fallacies, e.g. that the casino makes him lose after luring him in. This can be seen on other sites. So he constantly increases the registered users but it's just 1 daily active player (or 2 or 3 depending on how many accounts he registers).

The bias in the other direction is also possible: A regular player that only registered one account. So even if he plays regularly, the overall registered user statistics doesn't treat him differently than a player that only played once and never came back again.
9  Economy / Gambling / Re: MoneyPot.com :: The bitcoin gambling wallet on: November 27, 2015, 01:59:15 PM
it is safe to assume that you won't get a lot of investments if you start your standalone site with 54% commission and furthermore you miss the opportunity to source MP's userbase. Consequently, I think that it is better to run an MP app instead of a standalone investment site and that would also be the case if the app commission was lower.



it looks that you know more than we know regarding the MP's user base. are you able or willing to share the user base number? thanks

It is nothing to hide and a public data at the moneypot auction thread here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1249919.0. What he means is if you make your site at MP, you already have potential user to play since Moneypot share its user rather than start fresh



thanks for the prompt answer but I would like to know how many users MP has right now and had before. just to get the picture if it is rising standing or falling

oh and how many user disappeared after registering and wagering? or how many user only registered to get some promo coins. do you have those numbers or are those numbers public? I could go on and on with questions or maybe I missed it.

I read not that long ago that Betterbets the MP flagship was saying that they had a very big drop of their average wager amount and much less wagering customers

thanks again



Ryan could post a chart with daily active MP users.
10  Economy / Gambling / Re: MoneyPot.com :: The bitcoin gambling wallet on: November 27, 2015, 11:35:48 AM
My main concern as an app owner is will the % change? I dont think many ppl will be interested in making apps for MP for any less of a %.

tl;dr Making MP apps is better than running a standalone investment site, so make moar apps!

Really, why do you think so? Under the assumption that you want investors in your casino (either you can't BR yourself or you don't want to due to the risk) I always come to the conclusion that it is better to create a MP app than to your run a standalone casino with investments.

Historically (thanks @NLNico) the overall average edge of MP has been 0.9351% and app owners got an 0.5128% edge which translated to 54.84% of the expected profits. That is higher than for example the 50% of expected profits that Pocket Rockets Casino [Ref, NonRef] takes, the bitcoin dice site with the highest commission that I know of. In my opinion, it is safe to assume that you won't get a lot of investments if you start your standalone site with 54% commission and furthermore you miss the opportunity to source MP's userbase. Consequently, I think that it is better to run an MP app instead of a standalone investment site and that would also be the case if the app commission was lower.

11  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: [Free Script] Untitled Dice - Run your own bitcoin dice site (no server needed) on: August 24, 2015, 06:10:33 PM
He wasn't martingaling.
This sounded like a martingale to me:
I set the multi to 1.24 and began.   I immediately noticed I was getting raped hardcore.  I was only betting 10 bits at a time so as not to break the bank if I needed to 6x on a loss.   And if I somehow got 2 losses in a row, which is highly unlikely,  i would need to wager 36x  and so on.

Out of curiosity, what is HF?
HackForums
12  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: [Free Script] Untitled Dice - Run your own bitcoin dice site (no server needed) on: August 24, 2015, 03:59:04 AM
tl;dr

What I imagine you said is: Lost martinfailing yada yada yada butthurt yada yada yada pissed and will make MP look bad yada yada yada...
Jesus guy, did you even try to verify the rolls? Do it or gtfo.

LET THE WRATH OF l4r3f4c3 COMMENCE AND MAY THE PWNAGE BE MOST UNMERCIFUL AND RUTHLESS!   

Are you like 14y old and hang out on HF all day? You might want to grow some pubic hair first then..
13  Economy / Gambling / Re: PocketRocketsCasino.eu - FOR SALE - 3000 BTC profit on: August 03, 2015, 08:09:42 PM
Just an update.
I removed the invest button. There will now be no new investment or top ups of existing possible.


Hi,

I recently invested 0.1 BTC. Up until now, I have a positive profit, but the total investment is less than 0.1 BTC. Is anybody aware of a problem related to this?

You paid more commission than you profited.
14  Economy / Games and rounds / Re: BTC.ToTheMoon.me | Big Giveaway | upto 10000 Bits per person | Fun Game! on: June 28, 2015, 05:27:13 PM
username: Steve
15  Economy / Gambling / Re: BITDICE.ME - CRYPTO CASINO - DICE - BLACKJACK - >100BTC MAX PROFIT - 1 YEAR OLD on: June 08, 2015, 09:08:17 PM
When you divest you reset your HIGH-WATER MARK to the amount that has been left on site. Thus commission can be taken again from you. I will try to make it more clear with next update. I will also try to add few fields to see earned amount and commission taken more clearly.

Does increasing the investment or changing the Kelly reset the HIGH-WATER MARK too?
16  Economy / Gambling / Re: BITDICE.ME - CRYPTO CASINO - DICE - BLACKJACK - >100BTC MAX PROFIT - 1 YEAR OLD on: March 29, 2015, 08:22:34 PM
withdrawals are very fast at www.bitdice.me

I've often had the opposite experience.

Me too. Withdrawals served from the hot wallet are instantaneous which is awesome, but I also found that withdrawals that have to be processed manually usually take way over 24h.

I made a withdrawal of 11 BTC on Wed March 25th which needed to be processed from cold wallet. On Fri March 27th I send support (contact@bitdice.me) an email but haven't gotten a response yet. I've been away for the weekend and after coming back I find that my withdrawal still hasn't been processed Sad Sad That makes it >96h for something I'd consider a standard amount.

If Alex or bitme.steven are reading this, my on-site username is kungfuant.

Edit: Withdrawal was processed...
17  Economy / Gambling / Re: MoneyPot.com -- The Social Gambling Game on: February 25, 2015, 09:14:24 PM
Shiba's commands are now (partially) documented in a github wiki. You can also get the link by typing !help in chat.

18  Economy / Gambling / Re: MoneyPot.com -- The Social Gambling Game on: February 25, 2015, 04:35:07 PM
so cowbad is in the lead for this crazy amount of cashout
mind sharing the link to where i can check this bet using the bet ID? i want to see the max crash

Go to the game of the listed id: https://www.moneypot.com/game/1129935.
19  Economy / Gambling / Re: MoneyPot.com -- The Social Gambling Game on: February 25, 2015, 04:22:07 PM
Hey Moneypot admin is that the bigget hit so far? Wager and profit are in bits.
I'm not an admin but I can still answer that question. You might say I'm an obsessive data collector Grin Here is the list of all the cashouts >500.00x so far. As you can see 20k is the highest.

Code:
    username    | game_id |  factor  | wager |  profit
----------------+---------+----------+-------+-----------
 cowbay         | 1129935 | 20000.00 |    40 | 800000.43
 cowbay         | 1095238 | 12345.67 |    16 | 197531.04
 cowbay         | 1090922 |  6666.66 |    16 | 106666.73
 cowbay         | 1082757 |  4000.00 |    10 |  40000.11
 Gambletron5000 |  604396 |  2500.00 |    10 |  25000.36
 yujinbojee     |  622528 |  1285.01 |    10 |  12850.36
 yujinbojee     |  620219 |  1185.01 |     3 |   3555.10
 fanbox         |  527994 |  1151.26 |     1 |   1151.29
 220            | 1010596 |  1000.00 |    20 |  20000.53
 Ghris          |  704245 |  1000.00 |    10 |  10000.20
 MathWins       |  603130 |  1000.00 |    10 |  10000.14
 sureshnsnet    |  950338 |  1000.00 |     1 |   1000.01
 btcpizza       |  638302 |  1000.00 |     5 |   5000.14
 Ghris          |  703039 |  1000.00 |    10 |  10000.42
 sureshnsnet    |  957394 |  1000.00 |     1 |   1000.02
 kicken55       |  600008 |  1000.00 |    10 |  10000.23
 MathWins       |  604396 |  1000.00 |    10 |  10000.36
 220            | 1009149 |  1000.00 |   100 | 100001.89
 MathWins       |  603783 |  1000.00 |    10 |  10000.23
 Ghris          |  704435 |  1000.00 |    10 |  10000.13
 cowbay         |  500876 |   999.99 |    10 |  10000.04
 AOTP           |  658172 |   998.00 |    33 |  32934.43
 vjs            |  913341 |   991.62 |     5 |   4958.16
 WONTED         | 1032538 |   725.36 |   100 |  72537.80
 vjs            |  919174 |   695.86 |    10 |   6958.87
 cowbay         |  515000 |   666.66 |     6 |   4000.02
 Yna            |  636112 |   666.00 |     1 |    666.03
 Yna            |  635050 |   666.00 |     1 |    666.01
 MathWins       |  563566 |   650.00 |  1000 | 650016.30
 BertBetsBits   |  763602 |   589.32 |   862 | 508009.52
 nick1234       | 1090763 |   584.24 |    10 |   5842.53
 convicted2008  | 1135867 |   582.59 |    10 |   5826.08
 Ostrow         |  657250 |   555.00 |    35 |  19425.95
 Yna            |  515758 |   520.64 |   251 | 130683.47
 sterky         |  603438 |   513.56 |    10 |   5135.72
 singpays       |  636139 |   505.00 |    10 |   5050.21
20  Economy / Gambling / Re: MoneyPot.com -- The Social Gambling Game on: February 24, 2015, 12:07:17 AM
Nope you missing my point...  Grin

If every round takes +/- 5 seconds on average and his strategy was to place 40 bit on every bet, with a x20 000 payout... He would have made a zero profit on that WIN within the first 2 to 3 days of betting.

Yes, it is a lot of money, but the profit gets smaller, with every bet you place... Click on his name, and you will see his betting history, to see the whole picture.  Grin {He used a strategy of placing 40 bits on every round, for a LOT of games, before he won... He now decreased his bet to 10 bits per round} So every bet after that WIN will also decrease his winnings from that round.

Over time, if you keep on playing, and you not winning, it just gets absorbed again. {Most people WIN big and keep playing.. so it's gone in a day or two}  Sad

https://www.moneypot.com/user/Trolljegeren - Betting 1 000 000 bits per bet {$235 per bet} NOW that takes balls.  Shocked


ops sorry

I missed your point  Tongue


That player you linked played 4 months ago: not sure but I guess that time btc was worth more than $235.

the price of bitcoins 4 months ago is around $350-400 and i think around that time , moneypot is still run by espringe instead of rhavar

If I remember correctly at the point Trolljegeren played the site was already sold to Rhavar.
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