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401  Economy / Speculation / Re: BTC will have no more "to the moon" rises. Face it, BTC is becomming BANKING on: April 10, 2014, 01:04:57 AM
Yes, I changed the title to talk about how BTC is turning into BANKING. I realized that half way through this thread that BTC is becoming more like BANKING. That scared me, so I changed the title so when people read these posts they make more sense.

Also, when talking about BTC having a sharp rise, in the sense of banking, BTC would be limited on sharp exponential and logarithmic gains as most banks do not experience this phenomenon. That is the whole reason I changed the title.

Thanks.

I don't even know where to start in terms of how hilarious all of this is, please write more!

Seriously, OP is some kind of accidental comedic genius.
402  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 09, 2014, 12:49:44 AM
The miners decide what the rules are.  Increasingly, that means ghash.io, discus fish, eligius, and btcguild.  Biggest threat to bitcoin today.


I think there's really a lot more to it than this. A majority of miners deciding to impose some new rules don't suddenly have the power to force all nodes to accept their blocks as valid out of nowhere. If 50% of mining hashpower decided they were operating under rules contrary to the consensus of full bitcoind nodes out there, they will just be mining their own altcoin and the total proper Bitcoin hash rate will simply have dropped.
403  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Brave New Coin has now listed Bitcoin. on: April 08, 2014, 03:32:02 AM
Ripple as #2 is hilarious.
404  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bug in Bitcoin Core 0.9.0? - "conflicted" transactions ? on: April 07, 2014, 11:38:42 PM
https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/pull/3669
405  Economy / Speculation / Re: China or No China, Here's My Prediction for the Long-Term... on: April 07, 2014, 11:35:40 PM
OP does not comprehend the concept of "hedging" and basically invented his own fairy tale caricature of what he believes an institutional investor to be in order to improvise some FUD, end of story.

How do you hedge BTC?  There's no options market on it

The existence of an options market within a particular asset is not what hedging as a investment principle means.

I know what hedging means.  But options are the easiest tool for hedging.

My question remains how do you hedge a BTC position?  Like if I bought BTC today for $450.  How do I hedge against a drop to $400?

You can short on Bitfinex.
406  Economy / Speculation / Re: China or No China, Here's My Prediction for the Long-Term... on: April 07, 2014, 11:11:28 PM
OP does not comprehend the concept of "hedging" and basically invented his own fairy tale caricature of what he believes an institutional investor to be in order to improvise some FUD, end of story.

How do you hedge BTC?  There's no options market on it

The existence of an options market within a particular asset is not what hedging as a investment principle means.
407  Other / Off-topic / Re: (competition) bitcoin prison ~ win .25btc on: April 07, 2014, 10:57:33 AM
Jamie Dimon

1H84TqJ1LxXc559AYbkqzpzKJvXP862VMV
408  Economy / Speculation / Re: BTC will have no more "to the moon" rises. Face it, BTC is becomming BANKING on: April 07, 2014, 06:45:04 AM
OP can't express any idea whatsoever without insulting the reader and completely spazzes out the moment anyone disagrees about anything. This thread really isn't actually about a topic anymore, we 're just grabbing popcorn and witnessing a nervous breakdown unfold right before our eyes.
409  Economy / Speculation / Re: China or No China, Here's My Prediction for the Long-Term... on: April 06, 2014, 11:47:24 PM
OP does not comprehend the concept of "hedging" and basically invented his own fairy tale caricature of what he believes an institutional investor to be in order to improvise some FUD, end of story.
410  Other / Off-topic / Re: Message to HAL Finney on: April 06, 2014, 08:55:30 PM
This pretty much sums everything up--

http://youtu.be/d285LX7x9Xo
411  Economy / Speculation / Re: Interview in English about the Chinese situation on: April 06, 2014, 05:03:06 PM
I think what we can conclude from this information is that Bitcoin is already a huge winner, because people in China want it and the government has to do all kinds of weird gymnastics to even influence it.

It's absolutely beautiful that the Chinese government itself is causing the very price dips that they are purportedly working to protect their citizens against! It couldn't be more obvious this is 100% about CNY vs CNH and capital controls, though wrapped in rhetoric about "speculation" and "gambling". It makes sense too within the auspices of their system, you simply can't have a domestic Bitcoin market circumventing capital controls, but watch once the Chinese exchanges only use the offshore currency, suddenly the PBOC has no problem with anything.

It's not just the Chinese government that once the price of BTC lower. Institutional investors won't get on board until it's lower than we are now.
Like the Canadian shill guy said, why buy it $450 when early adopters got it for pennies.

I'm pretty sure the Canadian shill is just some loser and does not represent the prevailing opinion of institutional investors. Bitcoin has an enormous upside across multiple gigantic use cases, yet somehow institutional investors are pissed that people other than them got to buy in sub-$1? Honestly that's how dummies think. There were people who said exactly the same things about double-digit Bitcoins, except these weren't institutional investors, they were just random yahoos on the internets who believed somehow they missed it, and nothing apparently is worth getting involved in unless it's a lottery-sized windfall. This is not how professional investors think, this is how unsuccessful people think, to paralyze themselves from acting in any situation, and cultivating envy.
412  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 06, 2014, 07:29:30 AM
The Martingale "system" has no sound rational basis to even be called a system in the first place, because it does not actually do anything statistically that in any way improves outcome of any arbitrary series of fixed bets.

All the Martingale system actually does is play psychological games with your perception of wins and losses, and appeals to a misguided sense that the individual bets are somehow not statistically-independent events.

The "system" does account for them being statistically-independent events, but allows a way to systematize so you never walk away from the table at a loss b/c sooner or later you are going to be successful and win back all losses, plus the additional 1 unit bet that you started with.

It just progressively lumps your bet distribution into a smaller number of trials to give you the illusion that you did something different than just betting the same small amount repeatedly, by exponentially increasing the amount of variance you're exposing any given set amount of betting money to.
413  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 06, 2014, 06:48:28 AM
You have to keep doubling and betting until you win.  It is mathematically proven at least to be a break even strategy as long as the odds are exactly 50/50 like flipping a coin or black and red on a roulette wheel... so long as there are NO betting limitations.  Your point is that a guy would run out of money sooner or later, but overall it is at least a break even strategy... and pretty unlikely that a guy or gal would lose more than 10 times in a row.

ALL bet distributions/"strategies" are mathematically "proven" to be break even under these conditions, because of the very nature of how multiplication and addition work in the first place.
414  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 06, 2014, 06:42:56 AM
The Martingale "system" has no sound rational basis to even be called a system in the first place, because it does not actually do anything statistically that in any way improves outcome of any arbitrary series of fixed bets.

All the Martingale system actually does is play psychological games with your perception of wins and losses, and appeals to a misguided sense that the individual bets are somehow not statistically-independent events.
415  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin price vs. hash rate? on: April 05, 2014, 05:28:38 PM
Higher difficulty -> higher each BTC cost of production -> higher BTC/USD price.
Therefore if the difficulty will continue rising, the price will catch up almost certainly!

The labor theory of value has never been correct.
416  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Transaction confirmation time down on: April 05, 2014, 04:59:27 PM
Retail transactions are routinely performed at 0 confirmations, because transaction propagation alone validates any given transaction better than any other payment method in existence already. 10 minute blocks being a hindrance to retail application is the biggest myth that absolutely refuses to die.

That will be good. But there is a risk of double-spending.

There is essentially 0 risk of double-spending, because even trying to do something like this requires what amounts to a very sophisticated Sybil attack whereby you've essentially ostracized the retailer's node from seeing your double spend long enough for that double spend to beat your original transaction in network propagation.

The chance of success is completely probabilistic in nature and extremely remote, and the moment we're talking about an amount of value where that even remotely becomes worth pursuing, now we're in the realm of waiting for confs, and that entire vector of attack goes out the window the moment a single conf even happens.
417  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin will have no more big "to the moon" rises anymore. Face reality on: April 05, 2014, 04:50:08 PM
This was actually kind of beautiful, it was a vaguely coherent verbal vomit tour de force of practically all the FUD and myths out there, with a serving of anecdotes about a personal lack of judgement applied as though they were universal law.
418  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Transaction confirmation time down on: April 04, 2014, 04:41:23 PM
Average confirmation time of ~10 minutes is still quite significant. Won't cause any problem for the online shoppers. But people who want to use BTC for retail shopping won't be able to do it.

Retail transactions are routinely performed at 0 confirmations, because transaction propagation alone validates any given transaction better than any other payment method in existence already. 10 minute blocks being a hindrance to retail application is the biggest myth that absolutely refuses to die.
419  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: April 04, 2014, 08:21:31 AM
molecular, that is a valid point. Notice my last post ended "over and out". Hopefully I can sustain that.

This post will be deleted shortly, I just wanted to acknowledge you.

aminorex, that is funny  Cheesy

Nah ill quote you.. Wasnt your last post weeks ago? How many last posts r u gonna do? Smiley

It's a pretty standard narcissistic cry for attention. It's entertaining to watch an individual with a completely delusional sense of self worth and entitlement throw these temper tantrums because swarms of inferiors do not celebrate his obvious genius.
420  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: How did we let this happen? on: April 02, 2014, 08:16:53 PM
OP is just an NXT/NEM/altcoin troll.
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