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1  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN] Ethereum: Welcome to the Beginning on: February 19, 2021, 04:57:44 PM
ETH now has another competitor due to insane gas price which becoming really hard for everyone. People are moving towards alternative but demand for big players growing very fast and this is pushing towards the new level. I think other blockchains will give though time in coming days.
What kind of competitor are you talking about? Binance Smart Chain or Huobi Eco Chain?
The main problem with these competitors is that they offer to use their ecosystems, which are a fork of Ethereum. We are told that this is DeFi, but there is no decentralization in these projects, because these are centralized blockchains.

Polkadot and Cardano, according to their fan bases. Cosmos coming back around as well.
2  Economy / Speculation / Re: 2021 Elliott Wave on: February 19, 2021, 10:41:34 AM
Back in Bitcoin land, it was mentioned earlier but I'm in agreement the ~61K level is one to watch. My current operating assumption is it'll be a local top.
3  Economy / Speculation / Re: 2021 Elliott Wave on: February 19, 2021, 10:37:27 AM
On a more abstract note, the iconic Elliott Wave 5-3 fractal pattern can be used on everything from price action to our lives as human beings, and everything humanity touches. Nothing goes up in a straight line and natural growth is always 3 steps forward, two steps back. Not to get woo-woo, but it's increasingly clear (at least to me) that the Elliott Wave pattern is deeply embedded in human psychology, affecting everything from who we are and how our lives unfold, to the things we touch and create.

While I'm 100% on board with Elliott Wave theory holding interpretative power, I'm not fully convinced in its predictive power, especially when the resolution gets down into the lower cycles (minor, minute, minuette, etc). At this level it seems our hard-wired pattern-seeking brains are simply trying to wring signal from noise, claiming meaning from randomness. I'm open to be convinced otherwise though.

To this day I'm still impressed with the accuracy of OP's earlier 2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave) thread. Masterful work. Glad to see the effort continues here. This thread is one of the handful of reasons I make it a point to visit this forum on a regular basis.


An interesting video you may enjoy:
https://socionomics.net/2021/02/historys-hidden-engine-a-socionomics-documentary/

Thanks for that - I had no idea there was an actual field of study on this. Are you aware of any discussion forums or have any other resource recommendations for learning more?

It appears other than the original Elliott Wave theory, all material on socionomics is relatively recent so we probably can't expect a mainstream breakthrough for another decade or so (based off the observation that new science takes roughly 20 years to gain general acceptance). The sooner mainstream economics stops modeling humans as perfectly rational actors the better  Wink
4  Economy / Speculation / Re: 2021 Elliott Wave on: February 09, 2021, 04:58:39 PM
On a more abstract note, the iconic Elliott Wave 5-3 fractal pattern can be used on everything from price action to our lives as human beings, and everything humanity touches. Nothing goes up in a straight line and natural growth is always 3 steps forward, two steps back. Not to get woo-woo, but it's increasingly clear (at least to me) that the Elliott Wave pattern is deeply embedded in human psychology, affecting everything from who we are and how our lives unfold, to the things we touch and create.

While I'm 100% on board with Elliott Wave theory holding interpretative power, I'm not fully convinced in its predictive power, especially when the resolution gets down into the lower cycles (minor, minute, minuette, etc). At this level it seems our hard-wired pattern-seeking brains are simply trying to wring signal from noise, claiming meaning from randomness. I'm open to be convinced otherwise though.

To this day I'm still impressed with the accuracy of OP's earlier 2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave) thread. Masterful work. Glad to see the effort continues here. This thread is one of the handful of reasons I make it a point to visit this forum on a regular basis.
5  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst on: February 09, 2021, 04:38:20 PM
Forgot to mention, I appreciate the work and consistency put into this analysis thread as it's been a great resource in putting past price movements in context, interpreting current dynamics, and greatly influenced my future projections. Keep up the good work!
6  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst on: February 08, 2021, 02:23:45 PM
Timing is as expected although the catalyst was not exactly the one I imagined. I have a feeling 45k will be a minor speed bump and we'll be challenging 50K in the near future (1-2 weeks).
7  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst on: January 28, 2021, 02:47:30 PM
IMO it'll be early Feb when the breakout happens, perhaps catalyzed by the CNY. I say this without irony  Cheesy
8  Economy / Speculation / Re: 2021 Elliott Wave on: January 13, 2021, 03:33:40 AM
Thoughts on this 4th wave playing out as a few weeks of sideways (ranging between ~30-35K) action rather than making a new local low?
9  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 04, 2021, 06:04:14 PM
I'm strongly considering quitting my job, and doing something, anything else while living off crypto for the foreseeable future. This is the first day of work after a 2 week break, and instead of being "refreshed" and ready to work, all I can think is the break wasn't nearly long enough. Despite finding the work deeply unfulfilling, my job is stable and pays pretty well (a quick Google search says I'm in the top 97% within my state).

Probably the biggest thing holding me back is losing the structure that comes with the daily grind. I'm not completely confident I have the necessary self-discipline to create my own structure over the long-term, and while there are a lot of things I want to do (contribute to open source crypto software, write a novel, go back to school, etc), there's the non-zero chance I end up wandering aimlessly without purpose until wasting away.

Has anyone else gone through this or a similar thought process? This might be the only place (that I know of) with people who could relate.

10  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 04, 2021, 05:00:08 PM
Interesting interview with the ex CEO of UBS and Credit Suisse (only in german unfortunately):

https://www.bzbasel.ch/wirtschaft/bankerlegende-oswald-gruebel-wir-gehen-in-eine-situation-wie-wir-sie-noch-nie-erlebt-haben-140356175

He actually sounds like some WO regular (of the JJG school as he mentions "Bitcoin" not the forbidden Crypto-word).

TL;DR: Way too much fiat (and debt) out there, debt-fiananced economic growth doesn't really work in the long run, stonks will correct heavily soon since massively overvalued currently, financial market implosion incoming though exact date not set yet.

Disclaimer: I don't like that guy at all, but I can agree to every statement he has made in this interview.

I agree with everything except the "stonks will correct heavily soon" part. They are indeed massively overvalued, but the Fed will keep money printer go brrr on the downlow every year from this point forward, sending stonks even higher. And at the end of every business cycle (7-9 years), they'll use whatever "event" as cover to push trillions of $$$ through, giving Wall Street another massive injection. Next time it won't be just a few trillion though, it'll be more like $10-15 Trillion.

The melt-up will continue for at least another decade, maybe two. Rates will go negative in the U.S. and everywhere else.

Eventually the Fed and the Treasury will merge into one entity, and the nationalization (er, globalization) of the dollar printing machine will be complete.

A decade or two though? That seems quite the leisurely collapse.
11  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 29, 2020, 06:05:38 PM
Curious how much of the recent price action has been due to a miner "war" (speculating)? The hash-rate has dropped 45% since the ATH - any thoughts on why?
12  Economy / Speculation / Re: 2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave) on: February 29, 2020, 07:50:08 PM
Iíve read your two EW threads and while I started as a skeptic, Iíve gotten a lot of useful info from your posts over the years. Keep up the good work!
13  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 03, 2019, 11:08:14 PM
Uptrend to resume next week with a parabolic move. Or maybe the next week as I have a penchant for jumping the gun.
14  Other / Meta / Re: "Show All" on long topics on: October 01, 2019, 10:22:15 PM
Limitations
I scrape a maximum of 500 pages per topic (sorry Wall Observer).
If it's not too much work, maybe you can do something like http://loyce.club/show/178336.html?last=10 to help people catch up easier with the last couple of pages (it can be useful exactly for WO) without killing your scrapper or the browser?
And another 80 minutes wasted Tongue
How's this:
All posts in the Wall Observer thread in the past 1h, 24h and 7d
All posts in the past 1 hour: WallObserver.tk/1h.html (updated every 3 minutes).
All posts in the past 24 hours: WallObserver.tk (updated every 30 minutes).
All posts in the past 7 days: WallObserver.tk/7d.html (updated every 2 hours).

Domain WallObserver.tk expires a year from now, I'll see by then if anyone uses it.
All times are set to Amsterdam time.

Limitations:
Images still go through Bitcointalk's image proxy, and they don't load when there are too many on one page. In Firefox a fix is to go to the URL-bar a few times, and press Enter. Just "Reload" doesn't help.

This is awesome. I have a "sentiment analysis" bot that currently runs on tweets and subreddits but I'll incorporate this feed as well. Thanks!
15  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 10, 2019, 09:45:16 PM
Some RL issue ...... Have to miss my GF 10 days as she needs to go with her boss to Vegas... she works for him and he go's for 4 weeks or something  Sad

Good thing is I could of go with but I have some stuff of my own to do Roll Eyes So nice as he is, my GF can take a friend of hers on his expenses...
Good he's a true good friend of me and I have many people I know there, otherwise I almost have to become jealous (meh, i'm not the most jealous one and I know me GF pretty good ....), though she needed to come cause he will have some crypto related stuff I think besides of poker there...

Some of you guys in Vegas during the Series??

I got some bad news...
16  Economy / Speculation / Re: 2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave) on: September 15, 2018, 02:26:27 PM
I am really disappointing. Bitcoin just dont want to lose any value anymore. Only altcoins still does. It seems alt coins are some sort of buffer that keeps Bitcoin still floating. Same as altcoins did not let Bitcoin grow that fast in early 2017 and mid 2017 same now altcoins dont let Bitcoin lose value. This should sort of prolong bear market because it just cant come to the final capitulation before altcoins are totally dried out. Altcoins seems to kill my vision of the September bottom.
First the ALTs are going to be nuked; and so everyone will jump ship into BTC.
This causes BTC dominance to increase.
Once everyone is all-aboard BTC, it will be hit with a torpedo.



I appreciate your thread for the info and discussion itís generated but protip: never go full potato on conspiracies, manipulation, and voodoo.
17  Economy / Speculation / Re: 2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave) on: September 07, 2018, 09:53:42 PM
Not sure about that one. At this point itís in vogue to be bearish and the 4-5K level is the mainstream view. The funny thing is the people who hold this viewpoint think they are being contrarian but are actually the majority.

The majority of social media, i.e. YouTube/Twitter/Reddit/Telegram/etc are STILL expecting a return to at least $10,000 before 2018 ends in 4 months óincluding YOU the reader of this comment!
Being a bull or a hodlr is STILL the overcrowded trade.

Where are the numbers to back your assertions? The fact that short interest in BTC and ETH are sitting at all time highs throws cold water all over your argument. Cold numbers, FACTS.
18  Economy / Speculation / Re: 2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave) on: September 05, 2018, 08:57:45 PM
Not sure about that one. At this point itís in vogue to be bearish and the 4-5K level is the mainstream view. The funny thing is the people who hold this viewpoint think they are being contrarian but are actually the majority.
19  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 06, 2018, 09:27:26 PM
ot:
Quote
Climate change denial Ė involves denial, dismissal, unwarranted doubt or contrarian views which depart from the scientific consensus on climate change, including the extent to which it is caused by humans,
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_topics_characterized_as_pseudoscience
lots of these are obvious wierd, but wtf is that^ authoritarian socialist claptrap

on topic: also includes this lol
Quote
Technical analysis ... The efficacy of both technical and fundamental analysis is disputed by the efficient-market hypothesis which states that stock market prices are essentially unpredictable.[13] It is still considered by many academics to be pseudoscience.[14]

TA is probably the only pseudoscience where if enough people believe in it, then it becomes true. TA is effective as a form of collective delusion, and that is enough.

Isnít that just the market mechanism in general?
20  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 28, 2018, 02:33:02 AM
Collectivism is a good sign of weakness. It shows that you are not mentally apt enough to see people as individuals with their own thoughts and ideals. Instead you lazily put people into groups based on whatever criteria you come up with to ease your weak brain from needing to think too much.

Yea well the blacks collectivize and the hispanics collectivize and the Chinese collectivize. And all of them see white people as a collective group so they have no qualms about blaming you for the actions of other white people. If you choose not to collectivize with your people than you are going to get steamrolled by people who are willing to do that. It's that simple buddy. I would invite you to die on your hill alone, as an individual, trying to repell the endless tide of people who are willing to collectivize except that I need you with me because I don't want to die all alone on a hill taking my final comfort in that I was an individual at the end. So it's time to man up and stand with your people.

*edit* I should make a clarification. I'm not an individualist or a collectivist, I'm a necessarian. It's liberalism, and the individualism that is part of liberalism, that lead white people to the success that we found in 16th through 20th centuries and are somewhat clinging to in the 21st. We should advocate individualism where we can and collectivism where and when we must. It's a bit like violence in self defense. You don't want to go around punching people all the time to solve your problems, generally speaking violence is bad, but you need to be prepared and willing to use it when and if you must.

Collectivizing based on something as shallow as skin color rather than morals, beliefs, or hell even politics is pure stupidity.
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