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June 30, 2022, 04:18:36 AM *
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1  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is Bitcoin's price "basically a fire sale"? on: Today at 04:08:00 AM
but do you think the Bitcoin Rainbow chart is still accurate?

When the chart is "accurate" if the price stays between 18k and 323k, it's like betting that in a basketball match there will be between 30 and 500 points...
Besides, despite the logarithmic values going it such margins it has already failed twice, so it can do so tomorrow, it's just a drawing, if everything in the world could be predicted as such we wouldn't have "speculation".

Yes it’s a fire sale pretty much until the next fire sale. Many said it was a fire sale at $60k,$50k,$40k,$30k. And now we are at $20K.
Might even be a fire sale at $15k and it’ll head lower.

There are quite a few waiting for the 15k, that might be the last fire sale as if we go below is going to be a blood sell.
Already all the charts all the never below ATH, never done that and this and that has been broken in this bear market, but if we go that deep it's going to be painful, really really painful.


2  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Should the physically challenged be exempted from bitcoin? on: Today at 03:38:50 AM
I consider how bitcoin adoption is ever increasing each day despite bitcoin running dip in price, many people have seen and taken the good advantage in using the digital currency for many reasons that best suit their needs, now i consider this set of physically challenged people (blind, deaf1 and dumb)

So, since when is a dumb person considered physically challenged?  Grin

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as we all know they would have heard about bitcoin

1Is this supposed to be a pun?

What do you mean by exemption?
shouldn't we consider them having the same equal right to enjoy the benefit use of bitcoin?.

Then you phrased it wrong, as an exemption would be the opposite in this situation, although I can't picture how an exemption would work when there is no obligation or mandate in the first place, so what are we talking about?

Yes, Most of this physically challenged people don’t have job or source of income so how you come up on the idea of getting them involved on investment. C

It's called a physical disability, and despite what some might think there are a lot of persons with such actively working, not on apr with persons without but still pretty high:
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at European Union (EU) level, only 50.6 % of persons with disabilities are employed, compared to 74.8 % of persons without disabilities.






3  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Small Canadian company listed in the stock market as HODL has capitulated on: Today at 03:26:58 AM
To top it off, they are called Cypherpunk.

Let's add mere frosting to the cake: CSE: HODL  Grin
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a sector leader for blockchain, metaverse, privacy and cryptography focused investments
So they've managed to somehow be the leaders in some hype that actually never materialized, as the leaders in interplanetary colonization.

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Current equity investments include Samourai Wallet, Wasabi Wallet, Chia  NGRAVE and GOAT.
I wonder if they bought Chia at over 1000 (now 40)

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On the balance of probabilities, we see weaker price action opening the way to lower levels to come as reports of the number of chains imposing ‘temporary’ suspension on withdrawals increases. Until such a time as our thesis on market conditions change, our treasury will remain in cash.

This comes from the "leaders" of whatever!
Anyhow, this was expected, as it gains traction and more and more business starts popping around we're going to experience the same flaws, the same liquidations, and the same bankruptcy as in every traditional market, bitcoin is money, bitcoin is value, these can't increase forever at those rates just because it happened before for some rainbow charts tell you so.

4  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Is there anyone else wanna buy a miner now? on: Today at 03:15:21 AM
I mean, under this bear market...is it necessary to buy a miner to stock up on?

Wow, what an interesting thread, one line, and that's all, so much effort, but let's give it a try!

Yup, just stay away from a certain vendor who is right now spamming all the forum with tens of accounts about their shop!
Let's see you're going to wait half an hour and then edit your post and add the links?

While I do have all respect for Cannan and their previous Avalons the way you "promote" your business here is really really annoying!

5  Economy / Economics / Re: The Russian Federation may be about to make a "Corralito" on: June 29, 2022, 12:06:09 PM
That is a good way to surpass the sanctions isn’t it? Russia is somehow tackling the issues of financial sanctions from all over the world through their careful planning and process of making the Ruble stronger. This could also help their locals to do business at higher confidence since they have strong currency now.

Indeed genius move...
I wonder if your government would seize your Bitcoins, decide one is worth 10 000 dollars and convert 80% into some useless currency like a rupiah or a rial, would you still cheer this genius move that will help all their locals and their economy?

It doesn't matter how strong the ruble is on paper, in reality, nobody gives a damn about that, look at car prices in Russia every single one of them is two to three times more expensive as everyone knows that's not the real rate, it's the artificial methods of keeping a currency afloat that has driven a lot of people to bitcoin and you're here preaching about capital control and assets seizures?

I see a lot of talk about how badly Russia is doing, but I believe that it is not as bad as the Western media would have us believe.

Sanctions need time to bite, everyone was saying how sanctions don't work as Iran is doing...great  Roll Eyes



50% inflation, 80% in poverty, 20-30% drop in food purchases as they can't afford even carrots. Wait for it, it will be worse than the crash the USSR went through.
6  Economy / Economics / Re: Solar panels set to be mandatory on all new buildings under EU plan on: June 29, 2022, 03:08:26 AM
You're mixing power and energy.
You're spending 5kwh each day, not kw, and solar panels don't come in kwh they come in more likely watts alone.
If you have 4x250 watts panels (1kw), and you have 4 hours of sunshine you will produce 4kwh of power that day.

So basically you will need 5 panels for your consumption.
I think that ain’t too bad, 5 panels could cost a bit when you are starting out, but from what I understand you are not going to spend another single dime on it ever again? So, your mining would forever be free? If that is the case, that initial start-up cost could be awesome.

No, it's not like that.
Some really mistake the consumption a powerful video card has just because they are always compared with ASICs.
A video card that draws 250W will burn 6 kwh each day,  180kwh a month, more than what bakasabo consumes normally.

To put it as easy to understand, if you have 250W solar panels and 6 hours of peak sun on average you will need 4 of those panels and batteries to power continuously one 250W card. 200 videocards would consume 1200 kwh each day, needing at least 800 panels and batteries able to store at least 3/4 of those, around 900 kwh, so about 60 Tesla powerwalls..
7  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: The risk of NOT actually owning your mining hardware. on: June 29, 2022, 02:54:16 AM
Something interesting in that scan, one of their facilities has failed to make any payments after February 1st. That's
- before the invasion of Ukraine and sanctions hitting
- the price was averaging 40k with 26T difficulty, so at least twice the revenue

If they've started losing money and were unable to pay in those conditions, what were they thinking in the first place?

Meanwhile:
https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/06/28/compass-mining-ceo-and-cfo-resign-amid-setbacks-and-disappointments/

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"Compass Mining was created to make mining easy and accessible," said the statement. "The company recognizes that there have been multiple setbacks and disappointments that have detracted from that objective. Through this restructuring, the company is wholly focused on regaining the goodwill of the company’s stakeholders and the community, as well as delivering on the company’s mission of providing best-in-class service for miners of all sizes."

I know too well what this statement means, that you should grab every office supply you can get your hand on and run as you won't see any more paychecks from the "restructured" entity.
8  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will the bear market be more significant on: June 29, 2022, 02:36:13 AM
According to some reports, some analysts have predict bitcoin price to fall further to $14000, when I calculate this, at $14000 low, this will be like the 2018, 2019 and 2020 lowest bitcoin price if compared with 2017 highest price, but according to glassnode, when bitcoin price now is still not yet to that point, they have analysed and concluded that the bear market we are now is the worst ever since bitcoin was created.

What would be a bigger loss for you, lose 430k from your 60k in your bank account or lose 4  out of the 5 1euro coins in your pocket when you rushed to catch the buss? The first is a 50% loss the other is an 80%, but I have a feeling you're going to waste more time on trying to get those 30k back than searching for those 4 coins..

I've said it before, how much value has the $32 to $2 crash wiped out? 7 million coins in circulation, that's 200 million? Compared to
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“Investors collectively locked in a loss of -$4.234B in a single day, which is a 22.5% increase from the previous record of $3.457B set in mid-2021.”
This will only result to FUD.

It's not fud it's TYDL, aka things you don't like, which doesn't mean it's not true.
The whole FUD thing is so yesterday, every single thing that is a negative for bitcoin is FUD, get used to it, nothing can go only from good to better without problems, and nothing is perfect!
9  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoiners are protecting, while EU nations are destroying the environment on: June 28, 2022, 08:33:40 AM
EU nations has to find a renewable energy source and majority of the countries should follow Iceland as they have the highest share of renewable energy in Europe and hopefully we will stop hearing the blame game in the future.

It's not that simple.
Iceland can do this because it sits in the perfect place and has an enormous population of 300 000 people.
All the renewables in Ireland produce 22Thw a year, from 775 MW geothermal capacity, the US has 3,567 MW installed.

What works on a small scale won't be able to function once you use it for large countries, you will need 100 times the entire production capacity of Iceland to keep lights running in Germany for example. Or a better example, Salvador has a potential or 644 MW of geothermal energy, all the potential energy explored won't cover even 60% of the consumption.




10  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Are the Miners acting as the biggest whale! on: June 27, 2022, 12:16:49 PM
The SMA30 and SMA60 on the 3rd chart in the OP are the moving averages for hashrate, not for price. His argument seems to be that since the 30 day hashrate moving average has dropped below the 60 day hashrate moving average, that the hashrate is falling. Which is partly true as hashrate is down marginally over the last few weeks, but we are talking in the region of a few percent as you point out, and certainly not a crash as he is suggesting.

My bad, I saw the first line which mentioned when to buy, and coming from another speculation thread with the same moving average I thought it was about the price hitting those, not the hashrate. Of course, for this he is quite right, the hashrate is far more linear than the price and far more unidirectional, if the shorter term period is lower than the longer one it's obviously a downtrend.
But again, it doesn't mean much, a single huge farm going through a period of refining or maintenance could be the cause for half of those 1% swings.

I hope that most of the miners now have switched to renewable energy resources so that they would have been able to be more profitable in their investments.
I think the majority of the big farms have done already and the big ones who want to stay alive in this game are forced to do so or otherwise they will have to go offline during the upcoming crypto winter.
~
If they fail to move to solar panels for example they will be having a hard time with the energy prices skyrocketing throughout the world so they are not the whales,just selling to keep their activity ongoing.

Yeah right, like everyone wants to pay millions for batteries and going solar rather than pay 2cents per kWh for coal-generated energy.
That's why we have tens of farms on coal and gas and a big zero on full solar not grid-tied, so no, no majority has done anything like this.


11  Economy / Economics / Re: Solar panels set to be mandatory on all new buildings under EU plan on: June 27, 2022, 10:33:48 AM
I am not an expert, but I will try to come to a logical conclusion by throwing some googled data here. In a ~60m2 flat I spend about 5kw daily. I cant install solar panels on house facade only for myself, but I will copy data from "company that provide solar panel, installations services and etc". Company has a portfolio. From a picture of private house roof that says 5kw I see 8 panels.

You're mixing power and energy.
You're spending 5kwh each day, not kw, and solar panels don't come in kwh they come in more likely watts alone.
If you have 4x250 watts panels (1kw), and you have 4 hours of sunshine you will produce 4kwh of power that day.

So basically you will need 5 panels for your consumption.

From a picture of private house roof that says 5kw I see 8 panels.

That's power, a 5KW system will produce 5kwh each hour.

My monthly electricity bill is about 40 EUR.

If you consume 150kwh a month, I highly doubt your bill is just 40 euros right now in Germany, no fricking way you're getting 25cents per kWh with all vat and taxes and monthly fees, E.On already charges 44 cents per kWh in Hannover, I can tell you this from a May bill my co-worker received.
12  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Are the Miners acting as the biggest whale! on: June 27, 2022, 08:48:02 AM
Data from Arcane shows that “public” Bitcoin miners sold 100% of their BTC production in May (Sold Out) compared to the usual 20-40% previously.

Nope, I sold only 10% of my mined coins in May.  Grin

LE:
~
Removing this as I was mistaken it with the price, my bad, the second part stays.

The only indicator you have is the hashrate and the difficulty:
https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator
The last adjustment was -2.3548%, current estimation is between -2.3096% and -1.2486%,  the swings are on the same levels as March.

The sharp drop in Hash Rate shows that bitcoin mining is currently unprofitable.

Triple nope!
Bitcoin mining is not some unilateral production where the cost is the same for everyone and you have offer and demand.
The moment somebody drops out of mining the revenue of the others is growing, without further costs, mining will never be unprofitable for everyone!
Even at 10k or 5k, there will still be miners making a profit even at those levels.

Fourth:
Profitability hasn't reached yet bottom, lowest was 6.5 cents per Th/s back in 2020, viabtc is showing right now 8.8 cents Th/s not even mentioning the difference in efficiency between mining gear generations thus lower consumption per Th/s.
13  Economy / Economics / Re: How Will Investing Help the Economy of a Country on: June 27, 2022, 08:32:25 AM
I think what has happened in El Salvador shows this. Despite all the hype, it doesn't seem to have attracted much investment.

Because it doesn't offer anything else other that the volcanic city mirage and because people know how unstable that region is, what happens if Buekele is out next year? It doesn't offer the assurance of continuity like Europe, and also it's not a rich country, manufacturing won't have any advantage, with finances it still lacks connections to other centers, Buekle had to first fix thousands of problems and then ask investors to come.
Malta, Gibraltar, and Singapore are different, they already have everything set in place, it was easy for them to tell bitcoiners to set up camp there.

If adopting bitcoin as legal tender would have solved everything and made everyone rich we would have seen a different world by now.

But i try to understand about investment, economy, country and individual.
Investment is if interpreted broadly, generally what people often mention is placing one of the assets, capital, money and so on, the hope that someday it can generate profits in a certain period of time, long or short term.

Meaning: For example, if a certain country has a population of 1000 million people, with a poverty rate of 40%, if all of them know Crypto as a short and long term investment asset and they invest from 40% poverty, at least it will be reduced by at least 25% as long as they know the investment, automatically the country will help the economy in terms of taxes, because their people generally do transactions with crypto.

Poverty won't be reduced magically..
For that 15% in your case, somebody has to come up with the money to rise the price of bitcoin to a level where the 15% will be in a huge profit.

If we speak of a country alone, that has 10 000 bitcoins and there are no inflows or outflows of BTC from other countries, nothing will change internally, some wills ell to others from 2k to 10k to 100k, and the amount of money and wealth will still be the same. If you buy BTC at 20k you give someone 20k, you sell at a profit at 100k somebody gives you 100k from his wallet, in both scenarios the three of you have just like in the beginning, 1 BTC and $120k, nothing has changed.


14  Economy / Economics / Re: UK inflation hits new high of 9.1% as food and energy price surge persists on: June 27, 2022, 01:56:02 AM
if you look at the price per barrel of oil. the price is no higher then 2008..($120) yet fuel prices at the car petrol station pump is twice as high as 2008
its not the oil price(what car fuel is made from) fault..

there is no lack of supply of car fuel either. unlike a couple years ago. but even then a lack of supply car fuel did not cause petrol prices to go above £1.90/litre in the UK. it was more stable at like £1.30 during the supply shortage

Isn't it lovely how you compare two prices one in dollars and one in pounds and you draw conclusions?

Let's do it properly:
Barrel of oil in 2008 120$, 1 GBP=2 USD , meaning one barrel of oil was 60 £
A barrel of oil is now 110$, 1 GBP= 1.2242 $, making one barrel of oil worth 90£

That makes an increase in £ for the barrel of oil 50%.

You yourself have said that the price was stable at £1.30, let's put 50%, you get £1.95, which is the current price...

You see, no conspiracy, simple math and logic, available in every elementary school from an early age!

15  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Crypto lender Celsius mulls possible restructuring amid financial woes on: June 27, 2022, 01:22:25 AM
News update. It appears Goldman Sachs might bail out Celsius.

Not at all, and it's in the article also, it's not a bailout it's a garage sale, not a helping hand but a pack of hyenas roaming around.

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The proposed deal would allow investors to buy up Celsius’ assets at potentially big discounts in the event of a bankruptcy filing, the people said.
Goldman Sachs appears to be gauging interest and soliciting commitments from Web3 crypto funds, funds specializing in distressed assets and traditional financial institutions with ample cash on hand, according to a person familiar with the situation. The assets, most likely cryptocurrencies having to be sold on the cheap, would then likely be managed by participants in the fundraising push.

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Celsius, which had more than $8 billion lent out to clients and $12 billion in assets under management as of May of this year,

If we take May the 1st, then those assets, considering other coins have ump harder than bitcoin are only 6 billion, 2 billion losses for investors bets case scenario, worse maybe 4-5. If the assets were valued at 12B in middle may then maybe they will not go bankrupt at all, with only a few hundred million that they can solve by creating a new scheme, as it's the norma when it comes to them.

Hopefully, they have enough money to pay back the ones that lend them coins, it's really an ugly situation.
16  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Assuming that Government wake's up and crack down mining across the Globe. on: June 25, 2022, 11:57:12 AM
If the miners stop mining, would the Bitcoin that is already in circulation be sufficient, as many people hope for global Bitcoin adoption?

If miners stop mining Bitcoin stops!

There will be no blocks mined, no transactions getting confirmed no nothing!
Again, as mentioned in this thread 4 times already, if all miners completely stop mining all your coins are useless since they can't be moved anymore, there will be no adaption cause there won't be any possible usage anymore.
17  Economy / Exchanges / Re: CoinBase worse case on: June 25, 2022, 10:33:39 AM
I knew that there was something going on when 5 Korean exchanges decided to delist LTC after the MWEB upgrade, but I didn't know the regulations were this extreme. Do you have a link where I could read more about this?

There was a thread last December:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5379194.msg58924690#msg58924690

This is a more in-depth description of the situation:
https://www.coinfirm.com/blog/south-korea-crypto-regulations/
I don't know-how up to date it is, I mentioned it a few months ago, so...
18  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Another 5000 Miner BTC Sent To Binance- another dip? on: June 24, 2022, 07:24:41 PM
And while this halving stops miners from "draining" that much money it also halves the maximum possible security of the network.
So rather than that, I would say that the Bitcoin defense budget gets halved every 4 years.  Grin
Lol. The difficulty suggests otherwise.

Bruh common....
The difficulty alone as an indicator is meaningless when talking about security if you don't factor in the amount of money needed to overcome it.

At the start of 2017 the hash rate was 2Exa, was the network at that time 100 less secure than now?
At the start of 2015 the hashrate was 200Peta, was it 1000 weaker?

All that matter is the amount of money you must spend to overcome it,
A while after Bitmain released the S9 you would only need 300 000 machines for a 51%, at of 2000$ a piece at launch, 600 millions.
To do this now you would need 2 million S19, at a cost of 6000, 12 billion.That's only 20x. Price went from $500 to 20k that's 40x..... Hmm, a halving.  Wink
How many times do you think BTC will be able to do a 20x? <insert extrapolation joke here>

Or let's see it in BTC, you needed 1.2 million BTC, now you need 600k BTC

19  Economy / Exchanges / Re: CoinBase worse case on: June 24, 2022, 05:59:13 PM
You can do that but you'll basically be linking your identity to your address and giving them access to all of your future transactions since you'll have to link your Coinbase wallet:

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In certain cases, we may require you to link a Coinbase Wallet to your main Coinbase account to send crypto assets off the Coinbase platform. This allows us to verify that you control the Coinbase Wallet that is receiving the crypto assets, which is a requirement under Dutch regulations.

But you already do this when you withdraw funds for yourself, as long as you buy coins from Coinbase somewhere down the road you will withdraw some funds, and that's the moment when you should really think of getting yourself a brand new wallet.

Anyhow, coinbase regulations are far easier to bypass than banking for example, if you want to send someone funds via a bank transfers the bank already knows everything about the other guy, and the only way to avoid it will be by withdrawing cash from the ATM and giving that in person, but if you're 1000km away...
Three problems I see with this garbage
- I don't know any addresses of my friends, I would have to ask them every time, even the ones that have only a house number on a street I never bothered to memorize
- The consequences of writing down by mistake that address, you type number 56, and the street comes with only 20, would you get your account frozen after an inquiry?
- Imagine your friend sends then the coins to some known shady address, like a darknet market, same as the above as your account gets flagged?

Also, this is still one step behind South Korea, where everyone needs to have the outgoing address approved by proving is owned by licensed exchanges that are enforcing KYC.
20  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Another 5000 Miner BTC Sent To Binance- another dip? on: June 24, 2022, 05:05:42 PM
I really don't know that information, but if you know how much BTC was sold to bring the price down to $17k feel free to share it Wink

Of course, I don't know the numbers but by telling on some information (that could be totally wrong), we could strat with the amount of bitcoins that have been sent extra to the cold hot wallets and cold wallets of exchanges during the drop, and the number shows only an increase of 100k in all coins stored on exchanges in the first two weeks of May (thanks Terra Angry )and a 70k uptick during the June drop. Of course, not all of these could have ended being sold and at the same time probably a lot that was stored there could have been the target of the sale, at the same time a lot of the accumulation of coins happened after the event when people were rushing coins there and on the same time a lot was rushing cash.

Anyhow, my point is that a lot underestimate what the instant liquidation of 5000 would have but hopefully this will never happen, as there is no point in it other than intentionally harming the market.

This is however what makes Bitcoin halvings so important: miners "drain" money out of the Bitcoin ecosystem by paying their hardware and electricity suppliers. Each halving means they have less Bitcoin to sell, which means this "drain" gets less every 4 years.

And while this halving stops miners from "draining" that much money it also halves the maximum possible security of the network.
So rather than that, I would say that the Bitcoin defense budget gets halved every 4 years.  Grin







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