Price, Date of Confirmation, Time since last confirmation
0, ?, ?
1, ?, ?
1, ?, ?
2, November 2011, ?
3, January 2012, 1 month
5, May 2012, 3 months
8, August 2012, 3 months
13, January 2013, 5 months
21, February 2013, 1 month
34, March 2013, 1 month
55, April 2013, 1 month (outside speculators coming in media induced "bubble" formed and pops bottoming at $55)
89, July 2013, 3 months
144, October 2013 3 months
233, November 2013, 1 month
377, November 2013 (real or speculation "bubble" forming?)
610, November 2013 (real or speculation "bubble" forming?)
987, November 2013 (real or speculation "bubble" forming?)
1597,
2584,
4181,
etc..

I'm no mathematician, but I see a pattern here. Don't I? According to this sequence, the confirmation of the $250 hasn't officially happened yet. I suspect the speculative bubble formed due to media attention, like it did in April. We need to test $250 again before heading to the next level in the sequence of $377, then $610, then $987 and so on.

The time scale is the only thing I'm uncertain about...

In fact, it even more resembles the green numbers shown on this website: http://www.maths.surrey.ac.uk/hosted-sites/R.Knott/Fibonacci/fibtable.html. The green numbers are defined as "Every Fibonacci number bigger than 1 [except F(6)=8 and F(12)=144] has at least one prime factor that is not a factor of any earlier Fibonacci number." And the index numbers corresponding to the green numbers appear to follow the jerky time limits shown in the bitcoin prices above if you think of the index number in terms of months.

The green numbers preceded by the corresponding index numbers are as follows:

3:2
4:3
5:5
7:13
11:89
13:233 (projected for January 2014)
17:1597 (projected for May 2014)
23:28657 (projected for November 2014)
29: 514229 (projected for May 2015)
etc..

Ok, now the idea of bitcoin hitting half a million dollars in May 2015 seems pretty out there, but there it is...

Anyway, I just noticed this and thought it was interesting. I'm sure I'm not the first though. There have been much smarter people than me studying bitcoin and the protocol for a lot longer than I have. But the protocol IS based on complex mathematics right? And Pi was an awesome movie... Could the Golden Spiral have been written into the code somehow? Or maybe I should stop smoking pot before looking at historical bitcoin charts?

These past couple of weeks feel like April to me. I started hearing for the first time about it then when the price cranked up to $250 and after a week or two fell back to around $100 (still higher than the previous high from a few months before that). I actually researched it back then and thought it had promise, so I got an account at an exchange and bought one for $100. It then did nothing for a few months and slowly began the climb to back to the $250 high that it ramped up to in April which caused all the media attention. But once the "bubble" burst, the media, as usual, lost interest and didn't mention it again until it started ramping up to $800-$900 in early November. The news latched on again, speculators came in to try and get a quick buck, it ramped up to $1000, now it will fall back but I predict will not go below the previous $250 high from April.

I WANT this to happen! If it does, the media will move on to some other distraction and forget about bitcoin and its "bubbles" for another few months and the true believers who got on board in November are still in it along with the true believers (like me) who came on board in April, but the speculators are gone and government officials will relax and focus on other crises. Leaving us free to continue to build the network in peace again and start the slow ascent back to $1000. Once it starts to climb above that, there will be another ramp up to $3000 or something and the cycle will start again and the new floor will be $1000. Etc. etc. Rinse & repeat. All the while the network is growing and adapting and expanding.

It could very well be unstoppable but it will come in cycles like this. And with every cycle, the power of bitcoin grows. It's the nature of media and their short-term/crisis driven sensationalist attention span.

What has happened before will happen again. So I predict a hard bottom of $250 within the next week or so and then some stability as it slowly climbs back up under the radar.

We can let the media giggle once again at bitcoin's "downfall" until the next "bubble" forms in, say, March when all the fancy new rigs come on-line and the media suddenly learns about bitcoin. Again.

...

That's a phenomenal rant right there! It's my birthday today and this was my favourite gift. I couldn't agree with you more.

Username          Seller            Order Number    Payment Date   Payment Type      Type    Quantity      Destination (Country)    Date Received    Special Info(??)
Vexatious          MinerSource   451                   Nov. 26/13       BTC                     X-1      1                Canada                     

This is an interesting observation. So purchasing the GHS/BTC on CEX is effectively a form of hedge for long term bitcoin holdings? The question is what would it cost in BTC to fully hedge your holdings? And is that cost worth it to you if you think there is a bubble in the current price of BTC/USD?

Complicated but I intend to smoke a doob and think on it some more.

Well I bought one bitcoin for $100 bucks in April, now it's worth ~$900. But I did use 0.344 of them to buy the X-1 today. However I intend to replenish those bitcoins tomorrow to get back to one, perhaps I'll even get lucky and buy them back at a price lower than $900! Actually, I'm thinking I may buy more than that but we'll see.

I realize it's not much in the big scheme of things but I may be representative of the next wave of people getting in for small amounts like this. The fact that you can buy in smaller increments allows access to bitcoin for many people and that in turn helps the system over time. It is still pretty complicated for the average Joe and the average Joe wants things simple. So it'll take time and innovation to bring in the masses, if it even gets to that point. I'm sure there are people out there smarter than I am who will come up with ideas to make the whole thing easier to understand without having to do weeks of research like I had to do! I'm not dumb and I still find it very complicated. LOL

Back in April I was doing my weekly check of facebook and saw an article by the CFA Institute on bitcoin. Now for those of you who don't know the CFA Institute, they are the issuers of the highly respected and difficult to obtain CFA Charter (Chartered Financial Analyst). Ask anyone involved in the buy/sell investment community and they will know what CFA stands for and represents.

Point being, I happen to be a CFA Charterholder. So when I read that article, I started to do some research and I liked what I saw in theory. So I proceeded to get verified at an exchange, deposited $100 and bought a bitcoin to test the waters. Then I monitored off and on for a few months, did a bit more research, etc.

Obviously a few weeks ago, I began to get giddy with the price rise (and regretful wishing I had bought more!). At that time, I started to research mining as well. I have my own theories about where this thing could be headed and based my most recent purchase of a mere $300 for a Black Arrow X-1 on the results of my analysis and incorporating my own risk/return calculations. I'm so accustomed to financial/investment transactions being conducted in what most of us would say is "normal", so this purchase has me right at the edge of my comfort zone, but I did it anyway! I now have an "awaiting delivery" status for the X-1 and am anxiously awaiting the end of February for two reasons: 1. to see if the equipment actually arrives () and 2. to start tinkering and get real world personal experience with how all of this mining business works.

So I have a couple of months to research pools and things before my itty bitty machine arrives.

I'll use this thread to update as time goes by for any other noobs like me who are just hopping on this bitcoin train. Are we late to the show or is it still in the early stages? Am I an early adoptor or a sucker? Will bitcoin change the word and save humanity from itself or just be another big idea that flops when the 1% realizes their wealth could potentially be at risk?

Only time will tell. And that's what makes taking this small risk so exciting! So many variables at play! I'm buckled in and can't wait to enjoy the ride, even if it does crash. But I have a feeling that's not going to happen anytime soon.

Bitcoin is brilliant in theory, and exciting to be part of the action.

One more thing, I noticed on the Black Arrow rent-some-minions page that the option is available to join the Black Arrow pool. I can't find any information on this pool. Is it going to be set up in March too? Can you provide any details on the set-up of the pool?

Alright, well I did it. *crosses fingers* hoping I didn't just throw away $300, or more importantly, 0.344 btc... I guess I'll find out the end of February. (I did order through Minersource)

I was saving up to buy one, finally had the money today and now it says I have to buy 10??? WTF? 

What about transaction fees? Are they also awarded to the comp that solves the block? And how many btc are earned in transaction fees per block now?

So someone in another thread linked to here: http://getaddr.bitnodes.io/ where it shows the number of bitcoin nodes in each country. So I pulled some other numbers to do a quick analysis: number of computers per country and population. When looking at the penetration of the nodes in the world and sorting them, we have the following:

Countries in order of nodes per one million computers:

1. Canada (338)
2. China (233)
3. Germany (219)
4. Russia (218)
5. UK (191)
6. US (139)
7. France (74)
8. Italy (71)
9. Brazil (59)
10.India (19)
11. Japan (14)

Countries in order of nodes per one million people:

1. Canada (215)
2. Germany (194)
3. UK (164)
4. US (136)
5. Russia (81)
6. France (60)
7. Italy (53)
8. China (33)
9. Brazil (14)
10. Japan (11)
11. India (1)

Now I realize this isn't a scientific analysis but it is still interesting nonetheless. Being a Canadian myself, I can tell you we feel the chokehold of being so strongly tied to the US dollar. I've heard my whole life that if they go down, we go down with them (economically speaking). So I find it very encouraging that Canadians are early adopters of a currency solution that could provide us a safe way out of that chokehold. When the financial kaka hits the fan and the bubble that is the US reserve currency goes bust, perhaps we can survive the ride through bitcoin!

Honestly, if that does take place, I'll be the first one laughing at the 1% as they crash and burn... THAT my friends is where the real bubble is, and I can't wait for it to bust.

But Canada aside, all in all, those are a couple of pretty interesting lists right there when considering world economics and politics.

I'm in! 1MYPruFzVSf31v5gJagXjmqmw5gWRak3YH

Also, when it DOES reach $100,000, that's gonna say WAY more about the value of the US dollar than it does about the value of bitcoin.

I don't view it as a bubble. Demand is outpacing supply at the moment. It's not a stock, it's a currency. It's "value" compared to fiat isn't determined by trade imbalances and balance sheets, the determination of it's value is driven by demand. An overall movement from many countries moving into bitcoin as either a hedge or speculation.

There are many variables at play and it's still very, very early...

I'm just beginning to grasp the enormity of what this could become. It's mind-boggling and that's not the weed talking! (Well, maybe a little bit...  )

Let me re-phrase. I don't care whether people think it's a good idea or a bad one  , I'm simply looking for help with the mathematics of it using the calculator.

$215 investment
4 months
100 Ghash/sec
No costs
Any bitcoins generated are mine.

Again, whether they can deliver or not isn't what I am asking for input on. Just the math.

Can someone help me figure out the potential return if I buy into this? I have found a calculator, amplified the difficulty to what seems to be expected come march, put in what I think are the correct numbers for everything else and I am seeing a pretty nice return. So I can't help but wonder if I'm doing the calculations wrong with the calculator.

Anyhoo, here is the info I'm referring to:

https://www.blackarrowsoftware.com/store/rent-some-minions-4-months.html

Can someone who actually understands this help me out with some input?

Thanks a bunch.