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243
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Let's recap on what we've seen in the past few months
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on: September 03, 2011, 07:51:43 PM
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Ok, show YOUR math. For the record, you were claiming neither asic nor fpga would ever be viable not long ago.
Hmmm... I was? Please point me to any thread that I say that ASIC are anything but insanely profitable... He was talking to Synaptic. The guy that accuses everyone of not being able to do simple math, yet shows none himself and all the math that's been done concludes the exact opposite of what he claims  |
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244
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Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: bitcoin vs solidcoin
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on: September 03, 2011, 03:04:21 PM
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Confidence in P2P currency is already dead, the people using it are only nerds, the general public have made their mind up
The general public has no idea what a "P2P currency" is, but if you give merchants a way to lower prices and makes it easy for consumers to use they'll happily do so. We're not there yet, but we're moving forwards not backwards. That's good. |
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245
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Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Exchange accidentally sent 512 bitcoins after coding error
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on: September 03, 2011, 12:39:49 PM
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The only two courts in the world that have set any legal precedence in regards to virtual items or currencies holding real-world monetary value are the Dutch, and South Korean courts. Neither of which either of the two individuals involved are subject to the jurisdiction of. Irrelevant, laws regarding goods are well equalized thanks to global trade agreements. To claim that South Korean, Dutch, Finnish etc judicial systems would be outliers compared to the US the burden of proof would be on you. “The court effectively found that, even though virtual currency isn’t real and is infinite in supply, it still can deserve legal protection in the same way as real world currency,”
(UK - http://www.allfacebook.com/hacker-steals-12-million-in-zynga-poker-chips-2011-02) Gold holds value in the real-world because it's a precious metal that is the backing of, or used to be the backing for, every currency on the planet that was created for an established economy. I can only assume you believe this yourself, but it's funny nonetheless. No, gold does not hold value for such a reason, and it's easily proven by me asking you same question but exchanging gold for silver, copper, platinum, music songs, movies etc. I urge you to show me where US federal courts (since this is international, and therefore a federal, not state matter) shows that virtual currencies of any form hold real-world value. "Currency" is irrelevant, you can treat it as any virtual thing of value. Do you claim digital objects hold no value in the US, and if you think about that for a second or two, how easily do you think I can show you numerous examples? Likewise, I urge you to show any example that proves beyond a reasonable doubt that once you transfer ownership of an item (tangible or intangible) to another party, it is illegal for them to not give it back once demanded. Wording in an FAQ entry does not trump law. Without intention to change ownership the ownership did not change hands. The real question here is why you believe your personal imagination is of interest to us. Do note that you provide absolutely no information of value beyond your own ramblings. |
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246
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Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Exchange accidentally sent 512 bitcoins after coding error
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on: September 03, 2011, 11:56:27 AM
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You are not participating in a federally or internationally regulated credit system. Irrelevant. holds no value in the real world beyond that which is put on it by the members of the community that use it. Like gold. Bitcoin is no further subject to federal regulation, law, or consumer protection than something like WoW gold. Theft of virtual items has been successfully prosecuted all over the world. See, I tend to care about what's actually true instead of going on a rambling spree. You should try it. |
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249
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Other / Meta / Re: Do not post off-topic replies
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on: September 03, 2011, 10:47:24 AM
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This is not fair to the people responding to a topic, IMO. People who reply to topics should know that if they are on-topic and they follow the rules, they will not be censored. Also, it is very annoying for reply-writers when they write long, detailed responses and then the topics become off-topic and useless.
Well, it's your forum, but I've never seen OPs suddenly deciding replies to the first post to be off topic and complaining to moderators (who wouldn't then .. check?). It's far more common to see posters in a thread getting irritated when moderators who are not part of the actual discussion go around and deleting posts. (Not here, yet, but that's a worry with the change you outlined) |
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252
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Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: bitcoin vs solidcoin
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on: September 03, 2011, 09:50:14 AM
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"You walk into a video store, you see 8 minute abs sitting there and then you see 7 minute abs on the shelf right beside it. Which one are you gonna pick man?"
The one that isn't completely screwed?  Just a small hint, the new diff algo makes a 51% attack *really* profitable, I'll leave it to you to figure out why.
They don't even have to turn off mining 1. Pull a mining cartel attack and fork the chain when another miner finds a block. 2. Start fucking with block timestamps. 3.  . 4. Near-infinite number of blocks! |
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253
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Let's recap on what we've seen in the past few months
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on: September 03, 2011, 09:37:00 AM
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it costs at least a million USD to develop and fab an asic in any cost effective economy of scale...
A product like Xilinx EasyPath ($75000 NRE + lots of orders) would bring current FPGA upfront costs down quite a lot. What's needed for someone to gamble on such a venture is the belief that ASIC (or if you want to call EasyPath a hybrid FPGA/ASIC solution) miners would grab a significant share of those 7200 BTC per day. ($2/BTC is still $5.26M/year)
If the BTC price is going down to levels where it's just not profitable for GPU miners to mine due to electricity costs, that will indeed happen.
I looked at the Xilinx excel sheet yesterday. Did you? edit: I haven't verified that $75000 is true for all FPGA revisions though, but the point stands. $5.26M/year is absolutely a market into which someone can spend hundreds of thousands if they believe they can capture a large portion of it. |
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254
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Let's recap on what we've seen in the past few months
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on: September 03, 2011, 07:32:35 AM
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If the price per BTC is $50 but cost to produce is $3 there is no real reason to optimize for cost of production. You will want to optimize for volume. Exactly. That's why I don't get Synaptic's "price must go up for ASIC mining to take off". It's the other way around. Now you're following along as to why I think FPGA mining may be the beginning of the end.
So where I'm headed with this: a crash of difficulty because the ONLY viable way to mine is FPGA, with each board having a quite low Mhash/$ but high Mhash/joule efficiency. Further fueling a collapse in price (which makes GPUs that much more impractical for mining) until a new stability level is reached. Mining 3 coins a day at a sale price of $1/coin and power cost of $2 is not as smart as mining 1 coin at a cost of 20c.
this I think it's the other way around actually. I won't even touch mining until we're at ASICs, since I consider the price to follow production cost until we hit the uptake vs deflation knee of the curve. GPU miners need to charge $6/BTC. FPGA miners can charge $0.5. ASIC miners can ...
I consider mining bitcoins to be just as mining any other form of natural resource. The price floor is at extraction cost (plus minimal profit), anything above that is speculation. Since I agree with you that speculation won't continue to drive BTC price in the near term my projection is that the floor is where the cheapest mining can be had. Currently that's FPGAs, but they will be replaced by ASICs. GPU miners, like CPU miners already have, will need to drop out.
Do note that there's a qualifier, the above is only true if speculation doesn't take over. We've already seen that happen once and it could very well happen again if there's suddenly a huge uptake which needs a capital influx the current 7200 BTC/day inflation can't satisfy. |
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256
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Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Exchange accidentally sent 512 bitcoins after coding error
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on: September 03, 2011, 12:24:04 AM
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Also, anyone who thinks that a court will set precedent with this is retarded...in would open the doors for a veritable onslaught of e-currencies that the court system is completely unprepared to tackle. 'I'm gonna sue you for stealing my WoW gold and never delivering my +69 dragoncock sword". It's not gonna happen. One quick google of this clusterfuck and any judge will slap it off his desk as fast as they can.
Finnish police raid homes over stolen Habbo Hotel furniture and Dutch courts have convicted Runescape sword stealers to community service (due to their youth, not the severity of the crime). |
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257
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Other / Off-topic / Re: The story of Bold Funding.
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on: September 03, 2011, 12:10:11 AM
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Fun fact: I've heard estimates that Satoshi has around 1.2M BTC.
7200/day = 2628000/year Is it likely Satoshi was the only miner for half a year? (Or one of two for a full year). |
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258
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Here we go again, another major price drop for bitcoins
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on: September 02, 2011, 11:58:48 PM
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Where did you sell coins for $10.50? Mt. Gox has been trading 8.71 - 8.21 in the past 24 hours.
http://bitmarket.eu is a good place to sell at a premium. I know because I usually buy at a premium there. There are large differences in price just depending on whether you want to look at trades in USD or EUR. (Since it's P2P it's difficult to arbitrage though since you get a several day delay) |
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259
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Other / Off-topic / Re: The story of Bold Funding.
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on: September 02, 2011, 11:48:54 PM
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Bitcoin is also not currency in the traditional sense, and doesn't require a $15-$20 price point for it to be brought to the mass market. No, Bitcoin would survive and prosper even if it never got above par value with the USD.
Excellent post. |
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260
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Other / Meta / Re: Do not post off-topic replies
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on: September 02, 2011, 11:16:01 PM
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The concept of off/on topic in threads is really really difficult. The solution I've been most successful with (and I'm pre-Internet chatforum moderator old) is to have the original poster decide when the discussion that follows is on or off topic.
Else you end up in situations where the thread starter is fully ok with the discussion and a moderator starts deleting posts.
(In this case it should be somewhat easy for moderators to see if it's the thread starter that Reports to Moderator with "off topic" as reason)
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