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441  Economy / Marketplace / blackmarket site hacked - users/pass compromised on: June 19, 2011, 07:31:26 AM
http://4eiruntyxxbgfv7o.onion/paste/show.php?id=85020421643cf2eb

be careful out there space cadets.
442  Economy / Marketplace / Re: Selling: New Unopened Sapphire Xtreme Radeon HD 5830 on: June 19, 2011, 07:15:34 AM
yes, thanks for putting a giant market chart in the middle of a marketplace thread Tongue

price is now 7.5 with shipping.

plaese people stop sending me lowball orders that are less than newegg prices, please. I could just return it in that case. pay a slight premium and get now or get it whenever you find them back in stock after another difficulty increase or two...would like to sell in BTC community with bitcoins but hard when used cards are selling for $150+ on ebay and people are sending me PMs about paying 5 BTC.
443  Other / Meta / Re: Kill the Politics forum on: June 19, 2011, 07:08:17 AM
yawn - this debate is still going on? who loses if the btc.org forums become strictly development-oriented shop talk and other forums bloom in other places. There's 30 other forums I can go to to argue libertarian-socialism vs libertarian-capitalism. Hell, a great majority of TSR talk has already been moved to hidden services, etc. Honestly, my concerns are more about the forums becoming completely unnavigable in all respects -- just too much noise and too many posters on too many topics -- than any particualr content. though I sympathize with those concerns as well.
444  Economy / Marketplace / Re: Profitable Web Sites for Sale (makes $600/mo) on: June 19, 2011, 06:37:09 AM
you should at least post adsense screenshots
445  Economy / Marketplace / Re: High Roller Double Trouble on: June 19, 2011, 06:35:13 AM
maybe you should specify the rules before the game starts rather than changing them every day?

Fair enough. Reverted to 1 BTC from game launch.

Thanks!

Would love to see a rising btc double trouble, could be fun, but not when it wasn't specified from beginning. Also this game ahsn't had a problem getting some nice big doubles so far Smiley
446  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Raising BTC for a BTC generating business / project on: June 19, 2011, 05:43:29 AM
write up a business plan. offer shares on the bitcoin stock exchange. If it is good, you will find interested investors. If not, you won't.
447  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: [FORTUNE] The clock is ticking on Bitcoin on: June 19, 2011, 05:21:44 AM
Exactly one person has told me that he has been able to get the site to load.   But that he's not planning on using the site --- only taking a look at it.  He also told me that it was an unbelievable task to get through all the layers of security --- just to be able to read the web page.

This is inaccurate. You use Tor. You enter the address. You enter your login and password. It's not some double hopscotch know the secret code game. As for me I would rather have people actually using bitcoin to buy regulated substances than using it to speculate with. Half this forum wants bitcoin to be a get rich quick scheme rather than a viable means of exchange.
448  Economy / Marketplace / Re: High Roller Double Trouble on: June 19, 2011, 05:08:12 AM
maybe you should specify the rules before the game starts rather than changing them every day?
449  Economy / Marketplace / Re: Double Trouble (Instant/Automatic) w/ Partial Refunds! on: June 18, 2011, 09:39:43 PM
it will pick back up this evening...
450  Economy / Marketplace / Re: The Bitcoin Lottery on: June 18, 2011, 09:39:18 PM
According to my calculations.  At this moment in time, if the site is not rigged in any way the EV of each .1 BTC bet is above .1BTC because of the jackpot size.  Smart money would be to play like crazy if you trust the lottery.

Of course my calculations don't take in to account my 2 semesters of failed statistics courses.

Oh it +EV to play far before this point. It is seriously plus EV to play right now. But not if the second roll can never hit 100 lol.

451  Economy / Marketplace / Re: The Bitcoin Lottery on: June 18, 2011, 09:38:21 PM
Well the chances of not rolling a 100 in 500 rolls would be less than .6% -- unlikely but not impossible
The chances of not rolling a 100 in 1000 rolls would be essentially 0 (like .004% chance) -- statistically impossible

Even assuming there were a few "whales" that bet big somewhere along the way, I am thinking that things got screwed up with the addition of the 'second roll" as I have watched hundreds of rolls go by today multiple times.

second roll makes no sense anyway -- have 50-89 be first payout 90-99 be second payout and 100 be jackpot payout -- adding a dice roll doesn't "do" anything to increase your chances of winning

I am guessing that you are right that the same roll mechanism is used for both and it can go 0-99.

In this case I would recommend going back through the database and paying out jackpots to everyone that rolled a 99 at whatever equivalent the jackpot would have been. It will take some manual calculation to get people their correct amounts, but it shouldn't be very difficult at all.
452  Economy / Marketplace / Re: The Bitcoin Lottery on: June 18, 2011, 09:03:07 PM
But jackpot has been won once at least.

Yes, but the OP has made changes to the code and payout structure a couple of times since.  There is always the possibility an error was introduced.  There was a recent opensource application that had an inadvertent space introduced to its source code which resulted in entire /usr directories being wiped out on accident.

Typos and rounding errors happen all the time.  Without being able to examine the source for OP's rolling function nobody can state if it is fair or not.

Oh I agree absolutely, we are quite a few standard deviations away from normal at this point. I definitely support either code releaseor data auditing for all gambling games that want to be "respectable" // I don't care if the games are fixed, I just want to be able to calculate correct odds.
453  Economy / Marketplace / Re: The Bitcoin Lottery on: June 18, 2011, 08:29:46 PM
Yes you can lol

18. Jun 2011 21:53 h   flower      
Bet: 0.1 btc   Rolls -> Win: 0 • Jackpot: 9   

But jackpot has been won once at least.

I have been trying to write down the numbers as they scroll by but it is too hard to keep track of only 40 rolls at a time.

I would not play this anymore without a full paper trail for outcome auditing. It is just too easy to hide things without it. No disrespect to the coder, who prob has great intentions, but stuff like this needs to either be released with code or with outcome stats available.
454  Other / Meta / Re: Kill the Politics forum on: June 18, 2011, 06:24:50 PM
A lot longer than that, dear. Given the rash generalization of the academics, seems like you might not know enough of them. Bet you they swing both ways, if not more.

Did you really just bust out a "dear"? Patronizing ass.
455  Economy / Marketplace / Re: The Bitcoin Lottery on: June 18, 2011, 06:19:27 PM
Sounds a little sketchy to me that with 1 : 100 odds won't find a winner after 955 tries.

edit:

hmmm, that is not outside the bounds of possibility, but is getting up there. But I have to check the math on jackpot addition. This is why we need full stats available.
456  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Double Trouble - Double your btc investment on: June 18, 2011, 06:13:52 PM
yes you are correct that towards the end of the game those left "holding the bag" lose their bet. It is a classic game of fear and greed. You want to put more money in to get it doubled vs you are scared you will lose it. The game resets every 24 hours at a known time, so everyone knows how far we are out.

(Personally I like the games better when they reset XX hours after the last bet, as that encourages people to keep them going, but this works fine as well)

457  Economy / Marketplace / Re: High Roller Double Trouble on: June 18, 2011, 06:10:17 PM
keep it going keep it going keep it going full steam
458  Economy / Marketplace / Re: The Bitcoin Lottery on: June 18, 2011, 06:04:26 PM
@lemonginger:

yes, I am thinking of a kind of statistics page with top players, top winners and the real winning percentage based on all rounds. It is of course possible to show all played rounds, because we have all in the database. But as we changed some things since the first release I have to find a way to show that.

Hi DaMan:

If you don't want to release your code, it would be the best way to prove a fair roll by allowing people to audit the outcomes and make sure over long periods of time that they are within statistical norms. Of course you will get unlucky gmblers cryiung about normal variance, but within a while we should have a large enough sample set to run basic tests on.

Thanks for the game!
459  Economy / Marketplace / Re: The Bitcoin Lottery on: June 18, 2011, 06:02:31 PM
yes I am not sure why it is two rolls. doesn't really matter for jackpot odds, except you only get 9% to get 2.55x your bet back rather than 10% on your first roll
460  Other / Politics & Society / Re: This is where I stop believing Obama is possibly a rational, intelligent man. on: June 18, 2011, 05:59:24 PM
Unless there is some record of theft, we assume that the current owners are the rightful owners. The exception, as I hinted at, is when there is a record of theft, for example, my family owned a farm for dozens of generations and then the government seized it under "eminent domain" to build a road. That land would be returned to me.

Sorry. Wrong answer. That supposes a "naturalness" or a "neutralness" to nearly all current ownership when even the most cursory libertarian analysis of the last few hundred years would show that the vast vast majority of ownership is very much tied into a coercive and violent system and was gained through some combination of force, slavery, and state+corporate power.
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