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I closed my margin long @ $478 and took a good pounding. My biggest loss ever. Note to self: Never hold a margin position overnight.
I learned the same lesson a week ago in the first big (recent) drop from the China news. Clawing my way back out of the red now. Majorly sucks though. |
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chinese exchanges might dip pretty low, for a moment, but stamps will not follow, then all chinese exchanges should start to see demarictly less volume, and have price stabilize near stamps price.
thats my best guess
As long as arbitrage is still a possibility, Stamp will follow. if you can't Deposit CNY then arbitrage is not possible True, on one side of the equation. All the money in those Chinese accounts can still be withdrawn as BTC and sold on international markets. It's anyone's guess how many traders will take that route. |
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chinese exchanges might dip pretty low, for a moment, but stamps will not follow, then all chinese exchanges should start to see demarictly less volume, and have price stabilize near stamps price.
thats my best guess
As long as arbitrage is still a possibility, Stamp will follow. |
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keep hodling!
do we have more hodlers?
confirm your willingness to HODL!
Can confirm. Hodling by shorting on margin. Does that count? |
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Really? Let's see, more or less likely to sell them if they are given 3 weeks notice to remove them from exchanges... more, or less? likely? It is a difficult one, I know.
Are you saying that it is obvious they would remove coins from the exchanges to bitcoin wallets, or obvious that they would sell every coin in their possession and remove yuan? Is it also obvious to you how many coins are actually held by the Chinese? A large percentage of people would sell and remove Yuan, yes. How much is anyone's guess but I think it would be hard to see a scenario in which that happened and price didn't go down. None of us know exactly how much BTC is Chinese owned but I think we can be fairly confident that it is a not-insignificant amount. TLDR; A large percentage of a significantly large group of bitcoin users would sell in a short timeframe. |
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If I understand your point, you're saying that this China news only had any effect on the market because mass sentiment is that Bitcoin is vulnerable and this news served to confirm that sentiment?
While that may be true in many cases, this one would have meant a mass sell off of a very large percentage of international exchange funds. In light of that fact, the drop was actually pretty minor and insignificant.
Isn't your bolded text the very essence of the myth? Personally, I don't know how many coins are actually held by the "chinese" and I also don't know whether they would be more or less likely to sell them in a "ban" scenario. Really? Let's see, more or less likely to sell them if they are given 3 weeks notice to remove them from exchanges... more, or less? likely? It is a difficult one, I know. |
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I would like to explain the effects of good news vs bad news on the price of bitcoin (how it may convince people to buy or sell or hold):
I will refer to Joseph T. Klapper, who in 1960 wrote of the limited effects model of the media: the media do not have predictable effects. The effects of the media are small and unpredictable. The reception of a message depends on the source (credibility) and topic (preexisting opinion) of a message. The role of the media is to reinforce existing opinions. Confirmation bias. The media are more likely to reinforce opinions than to change them. Political campaigns and ad campaigns will typically find their way to those who are already among the converted.
Think about this carefully when interpreting the effects of news, good or bad.
It's also important to note that although belief in the limited effects theory later declined, to a perspective that the media did have a strong effect, but more nuanced and subtle and difficult to gauge, the general rules about the effects of media on the public still hold true. We consider ourselves opinion leaders, and this being a bull forum, might influence our decisions more than we might care to admit.
“The effort to state an absolute fact is simply an attempt to achieve what is humanly impossible.” “All I can do is give you my interpretation of the facts.” - Ivy Lee
If I understand your point, you're saying that this China news only had any effect on the market because mass sentiment is that Bitcoin is vulnerable and this news served to confirm that sentiment? While that may be true in many cases, this one would have meant a mass sell off of a very large percentage of international exchange funds. In light of that fact, the drop was actually pretty minor and insignificant. Edit: assuming the drop is over since the news has been debunked. |
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Here's a little reddit repost for you guys: http://finance.jrj.com.cn/2014/03/27101116938690.shtml[1] In this report, the reporter claimed he called a person in charge of Huobi and BTCTrade CEO, both said they have received no notice from PBOC. Currently, they are doing business as usual. And we trust bitcoin exchange operators now because exactly why? Just trying to put a little anti-FUD into the mix. The Huobi price is far more telling. So far we have: sketchy website likely full of shit linking to something I can't read - 1 something in Chinese I can't read - 1 Huobi price not plummeting mid-day in China - 100 |
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Here's a little reddit repost for you guys: http://finance.jrj.com.cn/2014/03/27101116938690.shtml[1] In this report, the reporter claimed he called a person in charge of Huobi and BTCTrade CEO, both said they have received no notice from PBOC. Currently, they are doing business as usual. |
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10 EMA crossing above the 200 EMA for the first time in a week. Looks promising. I'd like to put in a request for 700 by the end of next week  |
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wtf is going on, haha looks like someone sold while he wanted to buy, then rebought Looked like dozens of smallish market orders... out of control bot maybe? Either that or someone who went through a lot of effort to get a ~$10 discount. |
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Dafuq is happening on Stamp right now?  |
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Sellers are starting to have their fun on Stamp. |
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That was weird, there was just an over 40 btc buy order at $702.13, which should have cleared off the sell wall, but the sell wall was unaffected, and the order was filled...
Hidden orders are a thing. No they arent. Sure are. Easy to do with Bitfinex. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=257358.0 |
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That was weird, there was just an over 40 btc buy order at $702.13, which should have cleared off the sell wall, but the sell wall was unaffected, and the order was filled...
Hidden orders are a thing. |
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woah 3k sell wall now (BFX)
this is feeling like insider trading to me
Just because they have a lot of BTC doesn't necessarily mean they know any more than you. Looks like whoever put that order out there is shorting and wants to reassure sellers that the price won't continue to rise. |
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So bottom was 535 Just a breather for some sideways motion before continuing. Not the bottom just yet. |
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Frrom Bitcoinbuilder FAQ As it got bigger though, I decided the only use I should have is to convert all the "real" BTC fees I earn into GOXBTC. The reasoning behind this is two-fold.. 1. I do think gox will be fine and it's a good investment, but also 2. if somehow they're not, I want to be in the same (sinking) boat with everybody else. That is FUCKED up... he had NO hedging... apparently? And, his business plan seem a bit, lacking? Anyhow... So how can you keep such a business going in the event that GOX is truly and totally insolvent in terms of the reimbursement of the investors' BTCs? This doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Why would he want to go down with the ship when he was offering a fair service? He was giving people the opportunity to buy/sell the risk of Gox imploding where both sides knew what they were getting into. Wants to show a loss for tax purposes maybe? |
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